fuzzy cognitive mapping
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in social-ecological research. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is a procedure to involve stakeholders in research or management processes and a method to extract and analyze different kinds of knowledge about complex systems and their functioning.TRANSCRIPT
A tool for social-ecological research and environmental management
Experiences from six European Case Studies
Martin Wildenberg, Michael Bachhofer
Mihai Adamescu, Geert De Blust, Ricardo Diaz-Delgadod, Kirsten G.Q. Isak, Flemming Skov and Riku Varjopuro
What are Social Ecological Systems?
Complex
Adaptive
We are part of them…and that's what makes them
especially messy
How to model Social Ecological Systems?
And what can FCM contribute ?
(By the way, this guy is a member of FCMappers)
How to model Social Ecological Systems?
Fuzzy Cognitive MappingHow does it work?
The case studies
Structure of maps
Structured data collection
Compare different knowledge systems
Social Learning & Education
Stakeholder involvment
Simulation
FCM Simulation in a nutshell
ji
N
jij
kj
ki
ki wAAA
1
)()()1(
= value of concept Ci at iteration step k+1
= value of concept Ci at iteration step k
= value of concept Cj at iteration step k
= weight of the link between Ci and Cj
)1( kiA
)(kiA
)(kjA
jiw
Three Scenarios
TREND
GLOB
LOC
+ Base Run
Trend
Glob
Loc
Base Run
Pos it iv e
Ne ga t iv e
Wo
rkp
lac
es
Qu
ality
of L
ive
To
uris
m C
om
pa
nie
s
Pro
tec
ted
Na
tura
l Pro
pe
rty
No
. of F
arm
s
Na
tura
l La
nd
sc
ap
e
Ind
us
try
Po
pu
latio
n
Fo
res
tatio
n
Ag
ricu
ltura
l Inc
om
e
Trend
Pos it iv e
Ne ga t iv e
Wo
rkp
lac
es
Qu
ality
of L
ive
To
uris
m C
om
pa
nie
s
Pro
tec
ted
Na
tura
l Pro
pe
rty
No
. of F
arm
s
Na
tura
l La
nd
sc
ap
e
Ind
us
try
Po
pu
latio
n
Fo
res
tatio
n
Ag
ricu
ltura
l Inc
om
e
Glob
Pos it iv e
Ne ga t iv e
Wo
rkp
lac
es
Qu
ality
of L
ive
To
uris
m C
om
pa
nie
s
Pro
tec
ted
Na
tura
l Pro
pe
rty
No
. of F
arm
s
Na
tura
l La
nd
sc
ap
e
Ind
us
try
Po
pu
latio
n
Fo
res
tatio
n
Ag
ricu
ltura
l Inc
om
e
Loc
Pos it iv e
Ne ga t iv e
Wo
rkp
lac
es
Qu
ality
of L
ive
To
uris
m C
om
pa
nie
s
Pro
tec
ted
Na
tura
l Pro
pe
rty
No
. of F
arm
s
Na
tura
l La
nd
sc
ap
e
Ind
us
try
Po
pu
latio
n
Fo
res
tatio
n
Ag
ricu
ltura
l Inc
om
e
Comparison with ABM
~80% overlap in trends for three scenarios
Predicted trend in Farmers income is seen in 2008 Statistical Data
Pros - Cons
• (- )No time, no quantitative results
• (+) more process oriented• (+) participative• (+) faster
Thank You!
More information & Software at:www.FCMappers.net and yes – this site is a hobby…