pyeresq fuzzy cogniitive mapping - fcmappers.net · in this document the results of a fuzzy...

Peyresq 2009

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

“What factors will lead to a change in the natural

environment and how will that effect human well-being”

Martin Wildenberg

2

Index Introduction: ............................................................................................................................................ 4

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping ..................................................................................................................... 4

Indices:............................................................................................................................................. 4

Social Map: ...................................................................................................................................... 5

Dynamic Analysis: ............................................................................................................................ 5

Software .......................................................................................................................................... 6

Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

Overview.............................................................................................................................................. 6

The Aggregated map and the dynamic analysis .................................................................................. 9

Some details of the social map ...................................................................................................... 14

The Scenarios: ................................................................................................................................... 18

“Lets grow!” ................................................................................................................................... 18

“Science, Conservation & sustainable development” ................................................................... 21

The individual maps: ......................................................................................................................... 24

Map 1 ............................................................................................................................................. 24

Map 2 ............................................................................................................................................. 26

Map3 ............................................................................................................................................. 29

Map 4 ............................................................................................................................................. 31

Map5 ............................................................................................................................................. 31

Map 6 ............................................................................................................................................. 34

Map 7 ............................................................................................................................................. 38

Map 8 ............................................................................................................................................. 40

Map9 ............................................................................................................................................. 43

Map10 ........................................................................................................................................... 45

Map11 ........................................................................................................................................... 48

Map12 ........................................................................................................................................... 51

Map13 ........................................................................................................................................... 53

Map14 ........................................................................................................................................... 56

Map 15 ........................................................................................................................................... 58

Map 16 ........................................................................................................................................... 61

Map 17 ........................................................................................................................................... 63

Map18 ........................................................................................................................................... 64

Map 19 ........................................................................................................................................... 66

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Map 20 ........................................................................................................................................... 69

Map21 ........................................................................................................................................... 71

Map22 ........................................................................................................................................... 74

Map 23 ........................................................................................................................................... 76

Map 24 ........................................................................................................................................... 77

Map 25 ........................................................................................................................................... 79

Map 26 ........................................................................................................................................... 79

Map 27 ........................................................................................................................................... 82

Map 28 ........................................................................................................................................... 84

Map29 ........................................................................................................................................... 86

Acknowledgment ................................................................................................................................... 88

References: ............................................................................................................................................ 88

4

Introduction:

In this document the results of a Fuzzy cognitive mapping exercise conducted at the 2009 ALTER-Net

Summer School in Peyresq are presented. 29 maps were produced by the participants trying to

answer the “easy” question:

“What factors will lead to a change in the natural environment and how will that effect human

well-being”.

The attempts of the participants (and tutors) to find a response to this question can be found on

these pages. The document has three main parts, the first giving an overview over all maps, the

second introducing the aggregated map and some results of the dynamical analysis (simulation) of

this map and finally the third part contains all individual maps & their indices.

This document mainly lists the results of the mapping and does not discuss them in depth. Feel free

to take your own conclusions out of your maps! Additional material like the net-files & the adjacency

matrixes will also be made available on www.FCMappers.net .

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

In the following a short overview over the FCM indices is given:

Indices:

Density (D) shows how highly connected the factors are to each other within the network. It is

calculated by dividing the number of counted connections (C) by the number of possible connections

between N factors (Hage & Harary 1983).

Equation 1: If no self-feedback is allowed (main diagonal consist solely of zero) max. number of

connections is N (N-1) if factors are allowed to influence themselves than there are N² possible

connections within a network.

More connections per concept will result in a higher density (D). A system with higher density is seen

as containing more available options to manipulate the system (Özesmi & Özesmi 2004).

To define the type and the role of each factor within the network Indegree, Outdegree and Centrality

are calculated.

Indegree [id(vi)] is calculated by summing up the absolute values of all ingoing arrows (the sum over

the column of a factor in the matrix). Outdegree [od(vi)] is calculated by summing up the absolute

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5

values of all out going arrows (the sum over the row of a factor in the matrix). Absolute values give

positive and negative values equal importance (Yaman & Polat 2009).

The centrality or total degree (Harary et al., 1965) of a factor is the sum of the in- and outdegrees. In

FCMs, unlike cognitive maps or some SNA approaches, the value of centrality of a factor can be

higher although it has fewer connections than others, as the weight of the connections enters the

calculation of centrality (Kosko 1986). Centrality is a measure for the importance of a node. Concepts

with high centrality-values should therefore get special attention (Yaman & Polat 2009).

Three different types of factors can be found in a FCM: transmitter, receiver and ordinary.

Transmitters have positive outdegree but no indegree. They impact the system but the system does

not directly affect them they act as drivers or forcing functions. Receivers have a positive indegree

but zero outdegree, and are also called end. Ordinary factors have both positive in- and outdegrees

(Harary et al 1965).

Complexity is the ratio of the number of transmitters to the number of receivers. It shows if the

system is rather externally or endogenously driven (Eden et al. 1992). If the quotient of receivers /

transmitters is high, complexity is high. If this quotient is low, it shows that the system is perceived as

rather out-side driven with little bottom-up control (Simon 1996, p 185).

Social Map:

A social map is a map produced through augmenting several FCMs through matrix addition. In

contrast to an “Cognitive Interpretation Diagram” the concepts of a social map are only augmented if

they express the same meaning. For example “Farming” and “Agriculture” can be fused into one

concept while “Biodiversity” and “Species Diversity” will not – as these concepts have similar but

different meaning. The aim of a social map is to conserve the richness of the individual maps. The

resulting map usually contains too many nodes to be visually interpreted in a meaningful. It is the

basis of the dynamic analyses (Özesmi & Özesmi 2004).

Dynamic Analysis:

With the dynamic analysis the steady state of the system can be determined and scenarios can be

calculated. As described in Özesmi & Özesmi (2004) we use the auto-associative neural network

method (Reimann 1998). A vector of initial states of variables is multiplied with the adjacency matrix

of the social map. Through the connections input is transmitted from one node to the next

connected node(s) according the strength attributed to this connection. The output is scaled in the

interval of 0-1 by using a logistic function. The multiplication is iterated until the network converges

to a fixed point. This results in the steady state of the network.

When running scenarios some factors (concepts) are set to high respectively low values. The results

of a Scenario run is then compared to the steady state results to see if the value of the concept has

increased or decreased i.e. if the factor shows a positive or a negative trend compared to the

reference scenario.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBS-4BRB857-3&_user=483942&_coverDate=08%2F15%2F2004&_rdoc=1&_fmt=full&_orig=search&_cdi=5934&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1069430225&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000023298&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=483942&md5=6adc538c3a7826d9c4229e761a3a7317#bbib61

6

Software

For calculating the indices, running the scenarios and transforming the adjacency matrix into a net-

file format “FCMapper” was used. To produce the network images and to extract sub-networks the

social-network software “Pajek” and “Visone” were used. The material needed to repeat all the

calculations presented here will be made available on www.FCMappers.net. Here you can also find

the links to the social network software and a short tutorial on how to use Pajek to open your net-

files.

FCMapper: http://www.fcmappers.net/joomla/

Pajek: http://pajek.imfm.si/doku.php?id=download

Visone: http://visone.info/index

Results

Overview

Figure 1: Distribution of concepts (grouped into 8 thematic groups) over the 6 disciplines.

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%

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Ecosystems

Ecosystem ServicesClimate Change

Agriculture

Economy

Social System

Policy

Aesthetics & Values

http://www.fcmappers.net/

http://www.fcmappers.net/joomla/

http://pajek.imfm.si/doku.php?id=download

http://visone.info/index

7

Figure 2: Fraction of concepts in the eight different thematic groups. Most concepts (26%) can be related to the social system.

Figure 3: Total number of concepts in the eight different thematic groups.

Figure 4: The most mentioned concepts in the 29 maps. Concepts mentioned at least four times were included into the graphic.

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%

Ecosystem Services

Aesthetics

Economy

PolicyClimate Change

Social System

Ecosystems

101

68 6756

4123 21

8

020406080

100120

02468

101214

8

Figure 5: Maps with the number of concepts per map and their distribution into the eight thematic groups.

Figure 6: The dark red bar shows the number of maps in which concepts belonging to the thematic category dominate. The light red bars show the number of maps in which a concept belonging to a certain thematic category is the most central concept.

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Ecosystems

Ecosystem ServicesClimate Change

Agriculture

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Social System

Policy

Aesthetics & Values

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Focus of maps

Nr of Maps

Nr. Maps with highest centrality in catogorie

9

Figure 7: Graphic representation of overlap between maps grouped into the disciplinary background of the creator. The size of the circles represents the number of concepts counted in the maps of the respective discipline; the width of the line represents the number of similar concepts between the disciplines.

Figure 8. Overlap between the single maps. The colors of the circles represent the disciplines they belong to (see figure 7

for color code – gray = discipline not known). The size of the map represents the amount of shared concepts.

The Aggregated map and the dynamic analysis

10

All complete maps (n = 25) were aggregated into one big social map using the aggregation tool of

FCMapper. Concept-names were only aligned if synonyms or different spelling was used. The

aggregation resulted in a map containing 226 concepts. This map will be our basis to run dynamic

analysis & scenarios.

Table 1: Basic figures of the aggregated map

Density Total No. Factors

Total No. Connections

No. Transmitter

No. Receiver

No. Ordinary Complexity

0.012 226 579 32 25 169 1.28

11

Figure 9: The aggregated social map with its 226 concepts. The same color code is also used in all following maps.

12

Figure 10: Concept with highest centrality in the aggregated map

Figure 11: Concepts with the highest indegree in the aggregated map.

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Figure 12: Concepts with the highest outdegree in the aggregated map.

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Some details of the social map

Figure 13: All neighbors directly influencing and influenced by the concept “Human well being” and there inter-linkages. Red arrows indicate negative black positive relations. Colors are used as in fig. 9.

15

Figure 14: All neighbors directly influencing and influenced by the concept “Species diversity” and there inter-linkages. Red arrows indicate negative black positive relations. Colors are used as in fig. 9.

16

Figure 15: Direct neighbors influencing the concept “Climate Change”. Red arrows indicate negative black positive relations. Colors are used as in fig. 9.

17

Figure 16: Direct neighbors influenced by the concept “Climate Change”. Red arrows indicate negative black positive relations. Colors are used as in fig. 9.

18

The Scenarios: The results of the scenario runs for the Peyresq-Social-Map show relative meaningful results.

Nevertheless there are also some concepts showing strange trends as one might aspect considering

the relative un-facilitated mapping process and the different focuses of some of the maps.

“Lets grow!”

Storyline: Well we have all heard the talk of Martin Sharman. So what trends does the fuzzy cognitive

model show if we assume that economic development, economic growth and human population will

continue increasing? Will “Human Well Being” rise or will we face some serious problems?

Table 2: Factors manipulated in the scenario “Lets grow!”

Economic development Set to 1

Economic Growth Set to 1

Human population Set to 1

Table 3: Results of the scenario “Lets grow!”. Factors with a positive trend are listed in the left column, factors with a negative trend in the right column. +++ / - - - (red color) indicates a strong change, ++/- - a medium change (blue), + / - a weak change (purple) and ~ (grey) a very weak change.

Positive Changes Strength Negative Changes Strength

Abandonment of area +++ Beauty of landscape - - -

Climate change +++ Economy - - -

Deforestation +++ Ecosystem services - - -

Degradation +++ Environment - - -

Education +++ Food security - - -

Food production +++ Habitat heterogeneity - - -

Forest Degradation +++ Material for life - - -

Forest fire +++ Natural environment quality - - -

Generalist species +++ Natural resources - - -

Habitat fragmentation +++ Security - - -

Habitat homogenization +++ Specialist species - - -

Income agriculture +++ Species diversity - - -

Increased pollution +++ Biodiversity - -

Industry pollution +++ Carbon Sinks - -

Infrastructure +++ Connection to place - -

Invasive species +++ dependency on imports - -

Land use change +++ Desire to increase farm productivity - -

Low productivity +++ Ecosystem functioning - -

Need for energy +++ Ecosystem diversity - -

Pollution +++ Ecosystem processes - -

19

Spread of pathogens +++ Fertilizer use - -

Unsustainable resource extraction +++ Fresh water scarcity - -

Urbanization +++ Globalization - -

Using / spending time +++ Grassland used for Grassing - -

Ability to increase production ++ Ground water new building - -

area consumption ++ Habitat quality - -

Change of species distribution ++ Human happiness - -

competition for productive/ arable land surface area ++ Human health - -

Culture ++ Intensive land use - -

Decrease of species ++ Irrigation - -

demand for rural ("stadtnah") recreation ++ landscape aesthetics - -

Disaster ++ Habitat loss - -

Diseases ++ Loss of natural resources - -

Economic crisis ++ Peace - -

Economic loss ++ Productivity of agricultural landscape - -

Emission ++ Quality of life - -

Extreme flood events ++ Recreation - -

Fisheries / farming ++ Settlement materials - -

Food shortage ++ Stability of Society - -

Generalist populations ++ Tropical forest cover - -

Good government ++ wildlife-watching - -

Grassland used for hay ++ Buildings & Pavement -

Ground sealing ++ Carbon stocks -

Happy family ++ conservation efforts -

Hard landscaping ++ Economic productivity -

Increasing drought ++ Erosion -

Increasing rainfall ++ Global temperature -

Loss of biodiversity ++ Landscape -

Nature Protection ++ Multifunctionality of land -

Number of extreme events ++ No. of insects -

Out-migration loss of livelihood ++ No. of tourists -

Perception ++ Political security -

Poverty ++ Sad people -

Snow gliding ++ Air Quality ~

Soil degradation ++ Climbers ~

Starvation ++ Income from tourism ~

Surface runoff ++ Nature consumption value ~

Tourism ++ No. of mushrooms ~

Water availability ++ Oil resources ~

Aesthetic issues / values + Potential investor ~

Agriculture high intensive + Subsidies incentivizes ~

Crime & societal unrest + Tourism plan ~

Desire to love farm lifestyle + Vector driven diseases ~

20

Farmers + Water quality ~

flood risks + Well being ~

Good relationship +

Human population density +

Illegal logging +

Industrializing agriculture +

Land clearing +

Natural catastrophes +

Open Landscape +

Over-grazing +

pressure on forests/ agricultural land +

Probability of halting the loss of BD +

Rural settlements +

Shortage of food +

Sustainable consumption +

Arable land ~

Benefits of the area ~

channels/ dams ~

Clean Water ~

Agriculture ~

Fish resources ~

Food supply ~

Forest area ~

Growing mobility ~

Human occupation ~

Hunting & Fishing ~

income grows ~

Increasing consumption ~

Increasing street consumption ~

Industries ~

Infiltration ~

Jobs ~

Land available for agriculture ~

Land cover change ~

Land used for agriculture ~

Mushroom collectors ~

Noise ~

Pesticide use ~

Poisoned food ~

Timber production ~

Tourist attraction ~

Transportation ~

Water resources ~

Water use ~

21

“Science, Conservation & sustainable development”

Storyline: Let’s assume that we manage to convince policy makers, and – may be even more

important - the general public, that sustainability and nature conservation are really important.

Science on the other side works well in predicting changes and in communicating important issues.

All this is backed up by subsidy incentivizes and mechanisms that help to successfully enforce

policies.

Table 4: Factors manipulated in the scenario “Science, Conservation & sustainable development”

Change was predicted Set to 1

Communication and information programs Set to 1

Conservation efforts Set to 1

Establishment of protected areas Set to 1

Natura 2000 Set to 1

Scientist Set to 1

Subsidies incentives Set to 1

Success of policy enforcement Set to 1

Sustainable agriculture Set to 1

Sustainable consumption Set to 1

Table 5: Results of the scenario “Science, Conservation & sustainable development”. Factors with a positive trend are listed in the left column, factors with a negative trend in the right column. +++ / - - - (red color) indicates a strong change, ++/- - a medium change (blue), + / - a weak change (purple) and ~ (grey) a very weak change.

Positive Changes Strength Negative Changes Strength

Beauty of landscape +++ Climbers - - -

Benefits of the area +++ Diseases - - -

Connection to place +++ Economic Growth - - -

demand for rural ("stadtnah") recreation +++ Habitat fragmentation - - -

Ecosystem functioning +++ Hunting & Fishing - - -

Ecosystem processes +++ Intensive land use - - -

Grassland used for hay +++ Mushroom collectors - - -

Habitat quality +++ Pollution - - -

Habitat heterogeneity +++ Urbanization - - -

Human health +++ Abandonment of area - -

Landscape +++ Aesthetic issues / values - -

Marketing the change as positive +++ Agriculture high intensive - -

Multifunctionality of land +++ area consumption - -

Natural resources +++ Climate change - -

NGO power +++ competition for productive/ arable land surface area - -

No. of mushrooms +++ Education - -

Peace +++ generalist populations - -

Potential investor +++ Grassland used for Grassing - -

Probability of halting the loss of BD +++ ground sealing - -

22

Quality of life +++ hard landscaping - -

Recreation +++ Infrastructure - -

Specialist species +++ Soil degradation - -

Species diversity +++ Starvation - -

Strongly regulated market +++ surface runoff - -

Water availability +++ Tourism - -

Well being +++ Using / spending time - -

Wild boar & roe dear +++ Decrease of species -

wildlife-watching +++ Deforestation -

Biodiversity ++ Disaster -

Change of species distribution ++ economic crisis -

Clean Water ++ Economy -

Culture ++ Emission -

Desire to love farm lifestyle ++ Erosion -

Ecosystem services ++ Extreme flood events -

Environment ++ Fisheries / farming -

Farmers ++ flood risks -

Food supply ++ Good government -

Fresh water scarcity ++ Human population density -

Globalization ++ Increasing drought -

Government ++ Increasing rainfall -

Human happiness ++ Industries -

Human population ++ Land clearing -

Income agriculture ++ Habitat loss -

landscape aesthetics ++ Natural catastrophes -

Loss of biodiversity ++ Number of extreme events -

Loss of natural resources ++ Perception -

Material for life ++ Poverty -

Natural environment quality ++ pressure on forests/ agricultural land -

People conscious ++ Rural settlements -

Perceived desirability of change in nat. environment ++ Snow gliding -

Productivity of agricultural landscape ++ Arable land ~

Tourism plan ++ channels/ dams ~

Ability to increase production + Crime & societal unrest ~

Buildings & Pavement + Economic loss ~

Carbon stocks + Agriculture ~

dependency on imports + Fertilizer use ~

Desire to increase farm productivity + Fish resources ~

Economic productivity + Food shortage ~

Ecosystem diversity + Forest area ~

Food security + Growing mobility ~

Generalist species + Human occupation ~

Global temperature + Illegal logging ~

Habitat homogenization + income grows ~

23

Income from tourism + Increasing consumption ~

Invasive species + Increasing street consumption ~

Irrigation + Infiltration ~

Land use change + Jobs ~

Need for energy + Land available for agriculture ~

No. of tourists + Land used for agriculture ~

Over-grazing + Noise ~

Political security + No. of insects ~

Security + Open Landscape ~

Spread of pathogens + Pesticide use ~

Stability of Society + Timber production ~

Tropical forest cover + Tourist attraction ~

Unsustainable resource extraction + Transportation ~

Vector driven diseases + Water resources ~

Air Quality ~ Water use ~

Carbon Sinks ~

Degradation ~

Food production ~

Forest Degradation ~

Forest fire ~

Good relationship ~

Ground water new building ~

Happy family ~

Increased pollution ~

Industrializing agriculture ~

Land cover change ~

Low productivity ~

Nature consumption value ~

Oil resources ~

Out-migration loss of livelihood ~

Poisoned food ~

Sad people ~

Settlement materials ~

Shortage of food ~

Water quality ~

Stability of Society ~

Water quality ~

24

The individual maps:

Map 1

Density TotalFactors TotalConnections NoConnection Self Loops Regular Connections Complexity

0.20 9 16 0 0 16 2

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary Centrality Outdegree Indegree

Abandonment of area 1 3.90 2.90 1.00

Beauty of landscape / biodiversity 1 2.10 0.60 1.50

Climate change 1 0.60 0.60 0.00

Farmers income 1 1.90 0.00 1.90

Grassland used for grassing 1 4.90 2.70 2.20

Grassland used for hay 1 4.00 2.10 1.90

No. of tourists 1 1.60 1.00 0.60

Snow gliding 1 0.30 0.00 0.30

Subsidies incentives 1 1.50 0.50 1.00

Sum 1 2 6

% 11.11 22.22 66.67

25

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26

Map 2

Density Total Factors

Total Connections

No Connection

Self Loops

Regular Connections Complexity

0.21 9 17 0 0 17 1 to 0

27

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary Centrality Outdegree Indegree

Agriculture productivity 1 4.30 3.10 1.20

Arable land 1 1.60 0.80 0.80

Clear water 1 1.90 1.20 0.70

Economic productivity 1 2.60 1.30 1.30

Global temperature 1 3.20 1.50 1.70

Human health 1 2.00 0.50 1.50

Human population 1 1.90 0.00 1.90

Industrialization 1 2.30 1.40 0.90

Political security 1 1.60 0.90 0.70

Sum 0 1 8

% 0 11.11 88.89

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

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28

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29

Map3


Total Connections

No Connection Self Loops


0.16 16 42 0 0 42 0

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary Centrality Indegree Outdegree Culture 1 4.30 2.80 1.50

Economic growth 1 7.10 3.90 3.20

Education 1 4.20 0.50 3.70

Environment 1 2.90 1.50 1.40

Faith 1 2.50 0.00 2.50

Globalization 1 3.60 1.30 2.30

Good government 1 4.50 2.40 2.10

Good relationship 1 2.70 1.00 1.70

Happy family 1 5.80 4.30 1.50

Health 1 3.60 2.90 0.70

Natural resources 1 3.50 2.00 1.50

Nature protection 1 2.90 0.90 2.00

Perception 1 3.10 2.20 0.90

Pollution 1 3.80 2.00 1.80

Population density 1 3.50 0.70 2.80

Using / spending time 1 3.20 2.20 1.00

Sum 1 0 15

% 6.25 0 93.75

30

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row

th

Popula

tio

n d

ensity

Fa

ith

Glo

balis

atio

n

Good g

overn

ment

Natu

re p

rote

ctio

n

Polu

tio

n

Good r

ela

tionship

Culture

Happy fam

ily

Natu

ral re

sourc

es

Environm

ent

Usin

g / s

pe

ndin

g

tim

e

Perc

eptio

n

Health

Outdegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

Ha

pp

y fa

mily

Eco

no

mic

g

row

th

Hea

lth

Cu

ltu

re

Go

od

g

ove

rnm

en

t

Pe

rce

ptio

n

Usin

g / s

pe

nd

ing

tim

e

Natu

ral

reso

urc

es

Po

lutio

n

En

vir

on

me

nt

Glo

ba

lisa

tio

n

Go

od

re

latio

nsh

ip

Na

ture

p

rote

ctio

n

Po

pu

latio

n

de

nsity

Ed

uca

tio

n

Fa

ith

Indegree

31

Map 4

- No values between lines…

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary

Agriculture

Climate change

Deforestation

Forestry exploitation

Human well being

Landscape

Natural environment quality

Pastoralism

Tourism

Map5


Total Connections



0.17 11 20 0 0 20 0

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary Centrality Indegree Outdegree

32


Extreme flood events 1 0.70 0.00 0.70

Dyke construction 1 2.10 0.00 2.10

Security for humans 1 1.50 0.00 1.50

Urbanization 1 3.00 1.50 1.50

Intensive land use 1 2.70 1.70 1.00

Habitat richness 1 1.90 1.10 0.80

Species richness 1 1.00 0.80 0.20

Beauty of the area 1 2.50 1.00 1.50

No. of tourists 1 3.00 2.40 0.60

Establishment of protected areas 1 1.90 1.30 0.60

Sum 3 0 8

% 27.2727273 0 72.72727273

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Specie

s

richness

Extr

em

e flo

od

events

Habitat

richness

Security

for

hum

ans

Beauty

of th

e

are

a

Dyke

constr

uction

Urb

anis

ation

Inte

nsiv

e land

use

Esta

blis

hm

ent

of pro

tecte

d

are

as

No. of to

urists

Clim

ate

change

Centrality

33

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

Specie

s

richness

Habitat

richness

Beauty

of th

e

are

a

Extr

em

e flo

od

events

Urb

anis

ation

Inte

nsiv

e land

use

Security

for

hum

ans

No. of to

urists

Clim

ate

change

Dyke

constr

uction

Esta

blis

hm

ent

of pro

tecte

d

are

as

Indegree

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Dyke

constr

uction

Esta

blis

hm

ent of

pro

tecte

d a

reas

Extr

em

e flo

od

events

Security

for

hum

ans

Habitat

richness

Beauty

of

the

are

a

Inte

nsiv

e land

use

Clim

ate

change

Specie

s

richness

Urb

anis

ation

No. of to

urists

Outdegree

34

Map 6


Total Connections



0.08 26 53 0 0 53 1.5

35

Concepts Transmitter Receiver Ordinary Centrality Indegree Outdegree Abandonment of villages (e.g. M-P) 1 1.00 1.00 0.00

Area consumption 1 2.70 0.90 1.80

Channels/ dams 1 2.10 0.60 1.50


Competition for productive/ arable land surface area 1 6.00 4.20 1.80

Conservation efforts 1 2.50 0.50 2.00

Demand for rural ("stadtnah") recreation 1 3.70 1.90 1.80

Dependency on imports 1 0.50 0.50 0.00

Economic crisis 1 2.40 0.70 1.70

Erosion 1 2.60 1.80 0.80

Flood risks 1 3.20 1.70 1.50

Food security 1 2.30 1.00 1.30

Generalist populations 1 1.00 0.70 0.30

Ground sealing 1 3.60 2.00 1.60

Habitat fragmentation 1 2.30 1.20 1.10

Hard landscaping 1 1.90 1.90 0.00

Human population senescence 1 0.50 0.00 0.50

Landscape aesthetics 1 3.70 3.00 0.70

Need for intensification of land-use 1 3.30 1.20 2.10

Number of extreme events 1 3.20 1.00 2.20

Pressure on forests/ agricultural land 1 4.20 3.30 0.90

Quality of life 1 3.90 3.20 0.70

Specialist populations 1 1.30 0.90 0.40

Surface runoff 1 2.80 1.00 1.80


Wildlife-watching 1 3.10 2.50 0.60

Sum 2 3 21

% 7.69 11.54 80.77

36

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

Urb

aniz

atio

n

Com

petitio

n for

pro

ductive/ ara

ble

la

nd …

Pre

ssure

on f

ore

sts

/ agricultura

l la

nd

Qu

alit

y o

f lif

e

Dem

and for

rura

l ("

sta

dtn

ah")

recre

atio

n

Landscape a

esth

etics

Gro

und s

ealin

g

Need for

inte

nsific

atio

n o

f la

nd-u

se

Num

ber

of extr

em

e

events

Flo

od

ris

ks

Wild

life-w

atc

hin

g

Clim

ate

change

Surf

ace r

unoff

Are

a c

onsum

ptio

n

Ero

sio

n

Conserv

atio

n e

ffort

s

Eco

no

mic

cri

sis

Habitat fr

agm

enta

tio

n

Fo

od s

ecurity

Channels

/ dam

s

Hard

la

ndscapin

g

Specia

list popula

tio

ns

Genera

list popula

tio

ns

Abandonm

ent of vill

ages

(e.g

. M

-P)

Dep

en

de

ncy o

n im

po

rts

Hum

an p

opula

tio

n

senescence

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Com

petitio

n for

pro

ductive/

ara

ble

la

nd s

urf

ace a

rea

Pre

ssure

on f

ore

sts

/ agricultura

l la

nd

Qualit

y o

f lif

e

Landscape a

esth

etics

Wild

life-w

atc

hin

g

Gro

un

d s

ea

ling

Dem

and for

rura

l ("

sta

dtn

ah")

recre

atio

n

Hard

la

ndscapin

g

Ero

sio

n

Flo

od r

isks

Habitat fr

agm

enta

tio

n

Need for

inte

nsific

atio

n o

f la

nd-u

se

Abandonm

ent of vill

ages

(e.g

. M

-P)

Fo

od s

ecurity

Num

ber

of extr

em

e e

vents

Surf

ace r

unoff

Are

a c

onsum

ptio

n

Specia

list popula

tio

ns

Econom

ic c

risis

Genera

list popula

tio

ns

Cha

nn

els

/ d

am

s

Urb

aniz

atio

n

Conserv

atio

n e

ffort

s

Dependency o

n im

port

s

Clim

ate

change

Hum

an p

opula

tio

n

senescence

Indegree

37

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Urb

aniz

ation

Clim

ate

change

Num

ber

of

extr

em

e e

vents

Need f

or

inte

nsific

ation o

f la

nd-u

se

Conserv

ation e

ffort

s

Dem

and for

rura

l ("

sta

dtn

ah")

recre

ation

Are

a c

onsum

ption

Com

petition f

or

pro

ductive/

ara

ble

land s

urf

ace a

rea

Surf

ace r

unoff

Econom

ic c

risis

Gro

und s

ealin

g

Channels

/ dam

s

Flo

od r

isks

Food s

ecurity

Habitat

fragm

enta

tion

Pre

ssure

on f

ore

sts

/ agricultura

l la

nd

Ero

sio

n

Landscape a

esth

etics

Qualit

y o

f lif

e

Wild

life

-watc

hin

g

Hum

an p

opula

tion

senescence

Specia

list

popula

tions

Genera

list

popula

tions

Abandonm

ent

of

vill

ages

(e.g

. M

-P)

Dependency o

n im

port

s

Hard

landscapin

g

Outdegree

38

Map 7


Total Connections



0.13 15 29 0 0 29 1


Area of unfertile land 1 1.10 0.00 1.10

Capacity of timber industry 1 1.60 0.80 0.80

Deforestation 1 4.70 2.30 2.40

Demand of timber 1 2.40 0.80 1.60

Economic loss 1 3.20 2.10 1.10

Food shortage 1 2.60 1.80 0.80

Forest degradation 1 5.50 3.30 2.20

Forest fire 1 2.10 0.50 1.60

Forest governance 1 2.40 0.00 2.40

Human well being 1 1.40 1.40 0.00

Illegal logging 1 3.80 2.20 1.60

Land use change 1 3.70 1.60 2.10

39

Law enforcement 1 2.40 0.80 1.60

Settlement materials 1 2.70 1.60 1.10

Tropical forest cover 1 1.20 1.20 0.00

Sum 2 2 11

% 13.33 13.33 73.33

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Fo

rest degra

datio

n

Defo

resta

tio

n

Ille

gal lo

ggin

g

Land u

se c

hange

Econom

ic lo

ss

Sett

lem

ent

mate

ria

ls

Fo

od s

hort

age

Fo

rest govern

ance

Dem

and o

f tim

ber

Law

enfo

rcem

ent

Fo

rest fire

Capacity o

f tim

ber

industr

y

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Tro

pic

al fo

rest

cover

Are

a o

f unfe

rtile

la

nd

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Fo

rest degra

datio

n

Defo

resta

tio

n

Ille

gal lo

ggin

g

Econom

ic lo

ss

Fo

od s

hort

age

Land u

se c

hange

Sett

lem

ent

mate

ria

ls

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Tro

pic

al fo

rest

cover

Capacity o

f tim

ber

industr

y

Dem

and o

f tim

ber

Law

enfo

rcem

ent

Fore

st fire

Are

a o

f unfe

rtile

la

nd

Fo

rest govern

ance

Indegree

40

Map 8


Total Connections

No Connection SelfLoops


0.13 16 33 0 0 33 2

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Defo

resta

tio

n

Fore

st govern

ance

Fo

rest d

eg

rad

atio

n

La

nd u

se

ch

an

ge

Dem

and o

f tim

ber

Fo

rest fire

Ille

gal lo

ggin

g

Law

enfo

rcem

ent

Are

a o

f unfe

rtile

la

nd

Econom

ic lo

ss

Sett

lem

ent

mate

ria

ls

Capacity o

f tim

ber

industr

y

Fo

od s

hort

age

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Tro

pic

al fo

rest

cover

Outdegree

41


Air quality 1 2.70 2.20 0.50

Buildings pavement 1 2.20 1.00 1.20

Farming 1 3.70 0.90 2.80

Forest area 1 3.80 1.40 2.40

Human occupation 1 3.70 1.20 2.50

Industry activity 1 3.70 0.00 3.70

Infiltration 1 1.50 0.50 1.00

Jobs 1 3.80 1.90 1.90

Oil resources 1 1.50 1.50 0.00

Pollution 1 3.60 2.80 0.80

Species diversity 1 1.50 1.50 0.00

Timber production 1 0.80 0.50 0.30

Tourist attraction 1 1.40 1.10 0.30

Transportation 1 3.50 1.50 2.00

Water resources 1 3.20 1.80 1.40

Water use 1 2.60 1.80 0.80

Sum 1 2 13

% 6.25 12.5 81.25

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Centrality

42

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

Pollu

tion

Air q

ualit

y

Jobs

Wate

r re

sourc

es

Wate

r use

Oil

resourc

es

Specie

s d

ivers

ity

Tra

nsport

ation

Fore

st are

a

Hum

an

occupation

Tourist attra

ction

Build

ings

pavem

ent

Farm

ing

Infiltra

tion

Tim

ber

pro

duction

Industr

y a

ctivity

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Industr

y a

ctivity

Farm

ing

Hum

an o

ccupation

Fore

st are

a

Tra

nsport

ation

Jobs

Wate

r re

sourc

es

Build

ings

pavem

ent

Infiltra

tion

Pollu

tion

Wate

r use

Air q

ualit

y

Tim

ber

pro

duction

Tourist attra

ction

Oil

resourc

es

Specie

s d

ivers

ity

Outdegree

43

Map9


Total Connections



0.07 20 27 0 0 27 6


Aesthetic issues / values 1 0.50 0.50 0.00

No. of insects 1 0.80 0.50 0.30

No. of reg. Species 1 2.10 1.00 1.10


Food supply 1 1.10 0.40 0.70

Ground water new building 1 3.40 3.40 0.00

Growing mobility 1 1.70 0.70 1.00

Human health 1 0.40 0.40 0.00

Income grows 1 0.60 0.50 0.10

Increasing consumption 1 0.20 0.20 0.00

Increasing noise 1 1.00 0.00 1.00

44

Increasing street consumption 1 3.70 0.70 3.00


Industrializing agriculture 1 1.30 0.70 0.60

Industries 1 0.70 0.10 0.60

Land cover change 1 1.00 0.40 0.60

Los of natural habitats 1 0.50 0.30 0.20

Poisoned food 1 0.30 0.30 0.00

Pollution water / soil 1 0.90 0.70 0.20

Population grow 1 0.20 0.20 0.00

sum 1 6 13

% 5 30 65

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Industr

ializ

ing

agriculture

Hum

an h

ealth

Industr

ies

Fo

od s

upply

Incom

e g

row

s

Land c

over

change

Gro

win

g m

obili

ty

No. of in

sects

Industr

ialis

ation

Pollu

tio

n w

ate

r /

soil

Defo

resta

tio

n

Los o

f natu

ral

habitats

Gro

un

d w

ate

r n

ew

b

uild

ing

Incre

asin

g n

ois

e

No. of re

g.

Specie

s

Aesth

etic is

sues /

valu

es

Incre

asin

g

consum

ptio

n

Pois

ened food

Incre

asin

g s

treet

consum

ptio

n

Popula

tio

n g

row

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Hum

an h

ealth

Fo

od s

upply

Industr

ies

Incom

e g

row

s

Industr

ializ

ing

agriculture

Land c

over

change

Pollu

tio

n w

ate

r / soil

Aesth

etic is

sues /

valu

es

Defo

resta

tio

n

Incre

asin

g n

ois

e

Gro

win

g m

obili

ty

Incre

asin

g

consum

ptio

n

No. of in

sects

Gro

und w

ate

r new

build

ing

No. of re

g.

Specie

s

Pois

ened food

Incre

asin

g s

treet

consum

ptio

n

Popula

tio

n g

row

Los o

f natu

ral

habitats

Industr

ialis

atio

n

Indegree

45

Map10

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Industr

ializ

ing

agriculture

Industr

ies

Fo

od s

upply

Incom

e g

row

s

Industr

ialis

ation

Gro

win

g m

obili

ty

Land c

over

change

Los o

f natu

ral habitats

No. o

f in

se

cts

Gro

und w

ate

r new

build

ing

Defo

resta

tio

n

No. of re

g.

Specie

s

Pollu

tio

n w

ate

r / soil

Incre

asin

g n

ois

e

Aesth

etic is

sues /

valu

es

Hum

an h

ealth

Incre

asin

g

consum

ptio

n

Incre

asin

g s

treet

consum

ptio

n

Pois

ened food

Popula

tion g

row

Outdegree

46


Total Connections



0.17 10 17 0 1 16 1


Climbers 1 2.70 1.70 1.00

Farmers 1 2.00 1.00 1.00

Free access to forest 1 1.50 1.00 0.50

Mushroom collectors 1 4.00 0.00 4.00

Natura 2000 1 2.80 2.30 0.50

No. hunters 1 3.60 0.00 3.60

No. of mushrooms 1 4.50 3.50 1.00

Culture 1 1.30 1.30 0.00

Tourism (walkers) 1 1.00 1.00 0.00

Wild boar & roe dear 1 1.80 0.80 1.00

Sum 2 2 6

% 20 20 60

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

No. H

unte

rs

Fre

e a

ccess to

fore

st

Natu

ra 2

000

Mushro

om

colle

cto

rs

Clim

bers

Culture

Wild

boar

&

roe d

ear

Farm

ers

No. of

mushro

om

s

Tourism

(w

alk

ers

)

Centrality

47

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

No. H

unte

rs

Mushro

om

colle

cto

rs

Clim

bers

No. of

mushro

om

s

Culture

Farm

ers

Tourism

(w

alk

ers

)

Wild

boar

&

roe d

ear

Fre

e a

ccess

to f

ore

st

Natu

ra 2

000

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Fre

e

access to

fore

st

Natu

ra

2000

Clim

bers

Culture

No. hunte

rs

Wild

boar

&

roe d

ear

Farm

ers

Mushro

om

colle

cto

rs

No. of

mushro

om

s

Tourism

(w

alk

ers

)

Outdegree

48

Map11


Total Connections



0.0859375 16 22 0 0 22 0.25


Agriculture 1 0.60 0.00 0.60

Buildings 1 0.60 0.50 0.10


Dreams 1 0.20 0.00 0.20


Erosion 1 0.30 0.20 0.10

Habitat destruction 1 1.00 1.00 0.00

Human health 1 2.30 2.30 0.00


Landscape 1 1.70 1.40 0.30

Noise 1 0.80 0.00 0.80

49

Pollution 1 2.50 1.50 1.00

Sustainable agriculture 1 1.40 0.00 1.40

Tourism 1 1.00 0.00 1.00

Transport infrastructure 1 0.80 0.00 0.80

Wind farms 1 0.20 0.00 0.20

sum 8 2 6

% 50 12.5 37.5

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Pollu

tion

Hum

an h

ealth

Landscape

Susta

inable

agriculture

Habitat

destr

uction

Tourism

Nois

e

Tra

nsport

in

frastr

uctu

re

Clim

at change

Agriculture

Build

ings

Defo

resta

tion

Land u

se

change

Ero

sio

n

Dre

am

s

Win

dfa

rms

Centrality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Hum

an h

ealth

Pollu

tion

Landscape

Habitat

destr

uction

Build

ings

Clim

at change

Ero

sio

n

Land u

se

change

Agriculture

Dre

am

s

Defo

resta

tion

Nois

e

Susta

inable

agriculture

Tourism

Tra

nsport

in

frastr

uctu

re

Win

dfa

rms

Indegree

50

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

Susta

inable

agriculture

Pollu

tion

Tourism

Nois

e

Tra

nsport

in

frastr

uctu

re

Agriculture

Defo

resta

tion

Clim

at change

Landscape

Dre

am

s

Land u

se

change

Win

dfa

rms

Build

ings

Ero

sio

n

Habitat

destr

uction

Hum

an h

ealth

Outdegree

51

Map12


Total Connections



0.125 12 18 0 0 18 3


Crime & societal unrest 1 1.30 1.30 0.00

Degradation 1 1.60 0.80 0.80

Disease 1 1.10 1.10 0.00


Loss of biodiversity 1 0.80 0.80 0.00

Low productivity 1 1.20 0.50 0.70

52

Out-migration loss of livelihood 1 1.80 0.50 1.30

Pollution 1 0.50 0.00 0.50

Population 1 2.00 0.70 1.30

Poverty 1 2.90 1.30 1.60

Shortage of food 1 1.00 0.20 0.80

Unsustainable resource extraction 1 3.90 1.50 2.40

sum 1 3 8

% 8.33 25 66.66

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Unsusta

inable

re

sourc

e

extr

action

Povert

y

Land u

se

change

Popula

tion

Out-

mig

ration

loss o

f liv

elih

ood

Degra

dation

Crim

e &

socie

tal

unre

st

Low

pro

ductivity

Dis

ease

Short

age o

f fo

od

Loss o

f bio

div

ers

ity

Pollu

tion

Centrality

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

Unsusta

inable

re

sourc

e e

xtr

action

Land u

se c

hange

Crim

e &

socie

tal

unre

st

Povert

y

Dis

ease

Degra

dation

Loss o

f bio

div

ers

ity

Popula

tion

Low

pro

ductivity

Out-

mig

ration loss

of liv

elih

ood

Short

age o

f fo

od

Pollu

tion

Indegree

53

Map13


Total Connections



0.11 14 21 0 0 21 5

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Unsusta

inable

re

sourc

e e

xtr

action

Povert

y

Popula

tion

Out-

mig

ration loss

of liv

elih

ood

Degra

dation

Short

age o

f fo

od

Land u

se c

hange

Low

pro

ductivity

Pollu

tion

Cri

me &

socie

tal

un

rest

Dis

ease

Lo

ss o

f b

iod

ive

rsity

Outdegree

54


Change of species distribution 1 2.40 1.90 0.50


Ecosystem processes 1 2.50 1.50 1.00

Ecosystem services 1 4.30 1.60 2.70

Generalist species 1 1.60 1.60 0.00


Habitat homogenization 1 3.00 0.90 2.10

Health 1 0.90 0.90 0.00

Human population 1 4.00 0.00 4.00

Invasive species 1 2.80 0.90 1.90

Material for life 1 0.90 0.90 0.00

Security 1 0.90 0.90 0.00

Specialist species 1 1.60 1.60 0.00


Sum 1 5 8

% 7.14 35.71 57.14

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

Ecosyste

m s

erv

ices

Hum

an p

opula

tion

Habitat

hom

ogenetz

ation

Invasiv

e s

pecie

s

Ecosys

tem

pro

cesses

Change o

f specie

s

dis

trib

ution

Specie

s r

ichness

Clim

ate

change

Habitat

fragm

enta

tion

Genera

list

specie

s

Specia

list

specie

s

Health

Mate

rial fo

r lif

e

Security

Centrality

55

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00

Change o

f specie

s

dis

trib

ution

Ecosyste

m

serv

ices

Genera

list

specie

s

Specia

list

specie

s

Ecosyste

m

pro

cesses

Specie

s r

ichness

Habitat

fragm

enta

tion

Habitat

hom

ogenetz

ation

Health

Invasiv

e s

pecie

s

Mate

rial fo

r lif

e

Securi

ty

Clim

ate

change

Hum

an p

opula

tion

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Hum

an p

opula

tion

Ecosyste

m

serv

ices

Habitat

hom

ogenetz

ation

Invasiv

e s

pecie

s

Clim

ate

change

Ecosyste

m

pro

cesses

Habitat

fragm

enta

tion

Specie

s r

ichness

Change o

f specie

s

dis

trib

ution

Genera

list

specie

s

He

alth

Mate

rial fo

r lif

e

Security

Specia

list

specie

s

Outdegree

56

Map14


Total Connections



0.07 19 25 0 0 25 0.25


Decrease of species 1 1.10 0.50 0.60

Disaster 1 0.80 0.40 0.40

Economic development 1 2.10 0.00 2.10

Food production 1 1.90 1.40 0.50

Government 1 1.80 0.50 1.30

Higher temperature 1 0.60 0.00 0.60


Industry pollution 1 1.50 0.70 0.80


Natural environment 1 6.70 5.20 1.50

NGO power 1 1.70 0.60 1.10

People conscious 1 0.50 0.50 0.00

Poor regulation 1 0.40 0.00 0.40

Population increase 1 2.20 0.00 2.20

Scientist 1 0.60 0.00 0.60

Soil degradation 1 1.20 0.60 0.60

Undefined law 1 0.40 0.00 0.40

57

Use of fertilizer 1 0.60 0.00 0.60

Water scarcity 1 0.60 0.00 0.60

Sum 8 2 9

% 42.11 10.53 47.37

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00

Natu

ral

en

vir

on

me

nt

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Po

pu

latio

n

incre

ase

Eco

no

mic

d

eve

lop

me

nt

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

Fo

od

p

rod

uctio

n

Go

ve

rnm

an

t

NG

O p

ow

er

Ind

ustr

y

po

llutio

n

So

il d

eg

rad

atio

n

Decre

ase

of

sp

ecie

s

Dis

aste

r

Hig

he

r te

mp

era

ture

Scie

ntist

Use

of

fert

ilize

r

Wate

r sca

rity

Pe

op

le

co

nscio

us

Po

or

reg

ula

tio

n

Und

efin

ed

law

Centrality

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Natu

ral

en

vir

on

me

nt

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Ind

ustr

y p

ollu

tio

n

NG

O p

ow

er

So

il d

eg

rad

atio

n

Decre

ase

of

sp

ecie

s

Go

ve

rnm

an

t

Pe

op

le c

on

scio

us

Dis

aste

r

Eco

no

mic

d

eve

lop

me

nt

Hig

he

r te

mp

era

ture

Po

or

reg

ula

tio

n

Po

pu

latio

n in

cre

ase

Scie

ntist

Und

efin

ed

law

Use

of

fert

ilize

r

Wate

r sca

rity

Indegree

58

Map 15


Total Connections



0.09 11 11 0 0 11 0.5

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50P

op

ula

tio

n

incre

ase

Eco

no

mic

d

eve

lop

me

nt

Na

tura

l e

nvir

on

me

nt

Go

ve

rnm

an

t

NG

O p

ow

er

Ind

ustr

y

po

llutio

n

De

cre

ase

of

sp

ecie

s

Hig

he

r te

mp

era

ture

Scie

ntist

So

il d

eg

rad

atio

n

Use

of

fert

ilize

r

Wate

r sca

rity

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

Dis

aste

r

Po

or

reg

ula

tio

n

Un

de

fin

ed

law

Hu

ma

n w

ell

be

ing

Pe

op

le

co

nscio

us

Outdegree

59


Anthropogenic impact 1 1.00 0.00 1.00

Change was predicted 1 0.70 0.50 0.20


Humans acceptance of change in general 1 1.00 0.00 1.00

Interaction of humans with change 1 1.40 0.60 0.80

Linearity in natural environment 1 0.50 0.00 0.50

Magnitude of change in natural environment 1 2.10 1.20 0.90

Magnitude of natural variability 1 0.60 0.00 0.60

Marketing the change as positive 1 0.70 0.20 0.50

Perceived desirability of change in nat. environment 1 1.50 0.50 1.00

Resilience 1 0.70 0.70 0.00

Sum 4 2 5

% 36.36 18.18 45.45

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Ma

gn

itu

de

of ch

an

ge

in

na

tura

l e

nvir

on

me

nt

Pe

rciv

ied

de

sir

ea

bili

ty

of ch

an

ge

in

na

t.

en

vir

on

me

nt

Inte

ractio

n o

f h

um

an

s

with

ch

an

ge

An

thro

po

ge

nic

imp

act

Hum

an

s a

cce

pta

nce

o

f ch

an

ge

in

ge

ne

ral

Cha

ng

e w

as

pre

dic

ted

Ma

rke

tin

g th

e c

ha

ng

e

as p

ositiv

e

Resili

en

ce

Ma

gn

itu

de

of n

atu

ral

va

ria

bilt

y

Lin

ari

ty in

na

tura

l e

nvir

on

me

nt

Centrality

60

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00H

um

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Ma

gn

itu

de

of ch

an

ge

in

n

atu

ral e

nvir

on

me

nt

Re

sili

en

ce

Inte

ractio

n o

f h

um

an

s w

ith

ch

an

ge

Ch

an

ge

wa

s p

red

icte

d

Pe

rciv

ied

de

sir

ea

bili

ty o

f ch

an

ge

in n

at.

en

vir

on

me

nt

Ma

rke

tin

g th

e c

ha

ng

e a

s

po

sitiv

e

An

thro

po

ge

nic

imp

act

Hu

ma

ns a

cce

pta

nce

of

ch

an

ge

in g

en

era

l

Lin

ari

ty in

na

tura

l e

nvir

on

me

nt

Ma

gn

itu

de

of n

atu

ral va

ria

bilt

y

Indegree

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

An

thro

po

ge

nic

imp

act

Hum

an

s a

cce

pta

nce

of

ch

an

ge

in g

en

era

l

Pe

rciv

ied

de

sir

ea

bili

ty o

f ch

an

ge

in

na

t. e

nvir

on

me

nt

Ma

gn

itu

de

of ch

an

ge

in

n

atu

ral e

nvir

on

me

nt

Inte

ractio

n o

f h

um

an

s w

ith

ch

an

ge

Ma

gn

itu

de

of n

atu

ral

va

ria

bilt

y

Lin

ari

ty in

na

tura

l e

nvir

on

me

nt

Ma

rke

tin

g th

e c

ha

ng

e a

s

po

sitiv

e

Cha

ng

e w

as p

red

icte

d

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Re

sili

en

ce

Outdegree

61

Map 16


Total Connections



0.08 16 20 0 0 20 0.43


Benefits of the area 1 5.20 3.20 2.00

Communication and information programs 1 2.70 0.70 2.00

Electro-fishing 1 1.50 0.00 1.50

Eutrophication 1 0.80 0.00 0.80

Fish resources 1 1.60 1.60 0.00

Floods 1 0.30 0.00 0.30

Food resources 1 0.50 0.50 0.00

Hunting 1 0.50 0.00 0.50

Number of tourists 1 1.60 0.00 1.60

Over grassing 1 0.70 0.00 0.70

Potential investor 1 2.60 1.80 0.80

SiBNP management plan integration 1 1.20 0.00 1.20

Tourism plan 1 2.10 1.30 0.80

Water quality 1 0.80 0.30 0.50

Water resources 1 2.40 0.80 1.60

Well being 1 4.10 4.10 0.00

Sum 7 3 6

% 43.75 18.75 37.5

62

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Be

ne

fits

of th

e a

rea

Well

be

ing

Com

mu

nic

ation

an

d

info

rma

tio

n p

rog

ram

s

Po

ten

tia

l in

ve

sto

r

Wate

r re

so

urc

es

To

uri

sm

pla

n

Nu

mb

er

of to

uri

sts

Fis

h r

eso

urc

es

Ele

ctr

ofish

ing

SiB

NP

ma

na

gm

en

t p

lan

in

teg

ratio

n

Eu

tro

ph

ica

tio

n

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Ove

r g

rassin

g

Fo

od

re

so

urc

es

Hu

ntin

g

Flo

od

s

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Well

be

ing

Be

ne

fits

of th

e a

rea

Po

ten

tia

l in

ve

sto

r

Fis

h r

eso

urc

es

To

uri

sm

pla

n

Wate

r re

so

urc

es

Com

mu

nic

ation

an

d

info

rma

tio

n p

rog

ram

s

Fo

od

re

so

urc

es

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Ele

ctr

ofish

ing

Eu

tro

ph

ica

tio

n

Flo

od

s

Hun

tin

g

Num

be

r o

f to

uri

sts

Ove

r g

rassin

g

SiB

NP

ma

na

gm

en

t p

lan

in

teg

ratio

n

Indegree

63

Map 17

Na values on connections

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Be

ne

fits

of th

e a

rea

Co

mm

un

ica

tion

an

d

info

rma

tio

n p

rog

ram

s

Nu

mb

er

of to

uri

sts

Wate

r re

so

urc

es

Ele

ctr

ofish

ing

SiB

NP

ma

na

gm

en

t p

lan

in

teg

ratio

n

Eu

tro

ph

ica

tio

n

Po

ten

tia

l in

ve

sto

r

To

uri

sm

pla

n

Ove

r g

rassin

g

Hu

ntin

g

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Flo

od

s

Fis

h r

eso

urc

es

Fo

od

re

so

urc

es

Well

be

ing

Outdegree

64

Map18


Total Connections



0.13 17 37 0 0 37 0.33


Agriculture high intensive 1 3.00 0.00 3.00

Agriculture low insensitive 1 1.80 0.20 1.60

Biodiversity 1 5.60 3.50 2.10



Education 1 2.90 2.20 0.70


Habitat loss 1 3.70 2.80 0.90

Human awareness and curiosity 1 3.90 0.00 3.90

65


Hunting fishing 1 0.30 0.00 0.30

Infrastructure 1 1.50 0.30 1.20


Pollution 1 2.20 1.30 0.90

Poverty 1 1.30 0.50 0.80

Starvation 1 2.60 1.60 1.00

Tourism 1 1.90 0.60 1.30

Sum 3 1 13

% 17.65 5.88 76.47

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Bio

div

ers

ity

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Hu

ma

n a

we

ren

ess

an

d c

uri

osity

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Hab

ita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Hab

ita

t lo

ss

Ag

ricu

ltu

re h

igh

in

ten

siv

e

Ed

uca

tio

n

Sta

rva

tio

n

Defo

resta

tio

n

Po

llutio

n

To

uri

sm

Ag

ricu

ltu

re lo

w

inte

nsitiv

e

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Po

ve

rty

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Hun

tin

g fis

hin

g

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Hum

an

we

ll b

ein

g

Bio

div

ers

ity

Hab

ita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Ha

bita

t lo

ss

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Ed

uca

tio

n

Sta

rva

tio

n

Po

llutio

n

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Defo

resta

tio

n

To

uri

sm

Po

ve

rty

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ag

ricu

ltu

re lo

w

inte

nsitiv

e

Ag

ricu

ltu

re h

igh

in

ten

siv

e

Hum

an

aw

ere

ne

ss

an

d c

uri

osity

Hun

tin

g fis

hin

gIndegree

66

Map 19

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Hu

ma

n a

we

ren

ess

an

d c

uri

osity

Ag

ricu

ltu

re h

igh

in

ten

siv

e

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Bio

div

ers

ity

De

fore

sta

tio

n

Ag

ricu

ltu

re lo

w

inte

nsitiv

e

To

uri

sm

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Sta

rva

tio

n

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Ha

bita

t lo

ss

Po

llutio

n

Po

ve

rty

Ed

uca

tio

n

Hu

ntin

g fis

hin

g

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Hu

ma

n w

ell

be

ing

Outdegree

67


Total Connections



0.1 19 36 0 0 36 2


Carbon Sinks 1 1.30 0.50 0.80



Diseases 1 0.90 0.60 0.30

Economic growth 1 4.60 3.00 1.60

Ecosystem functioning 1 0.70 0.70 0.00

Ecosystem diversity 1 1.80 1.80 0.00

Education 1 1.50 1.00 0.50

Emission 1 3.10 2.10 1.00




Infrastructure 1 3.70 1.10 2.60

Intensified agriculture 1 2.90 0.00 2.90


Natural catastrophes 1 1.80 0.30 1.50


Stability of Society 1 1.70 0.50 1.20

Tourism 1 2.10 0.30 1.80

Sum 1 2 16

% 3.15789E+11 10.53 84.21

68

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

Eco

no

mic

gro

wth

Infr

astr

uctu

re

De

fore

sta

tio

n

Em

issio

n

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Inte

nsifie

d a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

To

uri

sm

Sp

ecie

s r

ich

ne

ss

Eco

syste

m d

ive

rsity

Na

tura

l ca

tastr

op

hie

s

Sta

bili

ty o

f S

ocie

ty

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Ed

uca

tio

n

Ca

rbo

n S

inks

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Dis

ea

se

s

Eco

ssyste

m

fun

ctio

nin

g

Centrality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Eco

no

mic

gro

wth

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Em

issio

n

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Eco

syste

m d

ive

rsity

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Sp

ecie

s r

ich

ne

ss

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ed

uca

tio

n

De

fore

sta

tio

n

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Eco

ssyste

m

fun

ctio

nin

g

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Dis

ea

se

s

Ca

rbo

n S

inks

Sta

bili

ty o

f S

ocie

ty

Natu

ral ca

tastr

op

hie

s

To

uri

sm

Inte

nsifie

d a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Inte

nsifie

d

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Defo

resta

tio

n

To

uri

sm

Eco

no

mic

gro

wth

Natu

ral

ca

tastr

op

hie

s

Hab

ita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Sta

bili

ty o

f S

ocie

ty

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Em

issio

n

Carb

on

Sin

ks

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Sp

ecie

s r

ich

ne

ss

Ed

uca

tio

n

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Dis

ea

se

s

Eco

ssyste

m

fun

ctio

nin

g

Eco

syste

m

div

ers

ity

Outdegree

69

Map 20


Total. Connections



0.09 16 24 0 0 24 2.5




Habitat heterogeneity 1 3.00 1.70 1.30

Happy people 1 1.60 1.60 0.00

Human population change 1 5.00 0.00 5.00

Income agriculture 1 0.80 0.80 0.00

Increased pollution 1 1.60 1.10 0.50

Increasing drought 1 1.30 0.60 0.70

Increasing rainfall 1 0.90 0.60 0.30



70

Loss of biodiversity 1 1.60 1.30 0.30

Need for energy 1 0.80 0.80 0.00

Sad people 1 0.30 0.30 0.00

Spread of pathogens 1 1.20 1.20 0.00

Tourism 1 1.40 0.70 0.70

Sum 2 5 9

% 12.5 31.25 56.25

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Hu

ma

n p

op

ula

tio

n

ch

an

ge

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Hab

ita

t h

etr

og

en

ity

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

Lo

ss o

f b

iod

ive

rsity

Hap

py p

eo

ple

Incre

ase

d p

olu

tio

n

To

uri

sm

Incre

asin

g

dro

ug

ht

Sp

rea

d o

f p

ath

og

en

s

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Incre

asin

g r

ain

fall

Inco

me

a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Nee

d fo

r e

ne

rgy

Sa

d p

eo

ple

Centrality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Hab

ita

t h

etr

og

en

ity

Hap

py p

eo

ple

Lo

ss o

f b

iod

ive

rsity

Sp

rea

d o

f p

ath

og

en

s

Incre

ase

d p

olu

tio

n

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Inco

me

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Nee

d fo

r e

ne

rgy

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

To

uri

sm

Incre

asin

g

dro

ug

ht

Incre

asin

g r

ain

fall

Sa

d p

eo

ple

Hum

an

po

pu

latio

n

ch

an

ge

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

sIndegree

71

Map21


Total Connections



0.109375 16 28 0 0 28 -

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Hu

ma

n p

op

ula

tio

n

ch

an

ge

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

La

nd

use

ch

an

ge

Ha

bita

t h

etr

og

en

ity

Inva

siv

e s

pe

cie

s

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Incre

asin

g d

rou

gh

t

To

uri

sm

Incre

ase

d p

olu

tio

n

Incre

asin

g r

ain

fall

Lo

ss o

f b

iod

ive

rsity

Ha

pp

y p

eo

ple

Inco

me

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Ne

ed

fo

r e

ne

rgy

Sa

d p

eo

ple

Sp

rea

d o

f p

ath

og

en

s

Outdegree

72


Ability to increase production 1 1.50 0.70 0.80

Aesthetic values of landscape 1 1.80 0.70 1.10

Connection to place 1 2.70 1.20 1.50

Desire to increase farm productivity 1 2.30 1.60 0.70

Desire to love farm lifestyle 1 1.80 1.80 0.00

Farm income 1 4.40 2.00 2.40




Habitat quality 1 3.50 1.80 1.70

Human happiness 1 1.00 1.00 0.00

Land available for agriculture 1 1.90 0.70 1.20

Land clearing 1 3.70 2.00 1.70

Land used for agriculture 1 2.10 0.60 1.50

Productivity of agricultural landscape 1 2.30 0.30 2.00

Species diversity 1 3.50 1.80 1.70

Sum 0 3 13

% 0 18.75 81.25

73

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00

Fa

rm in

co

me

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

La

nd

cle

ari

ng

Ha

bita

t q

ua

lity

Sp

ecie

s d

ive

rsity

Co

nn

ectio

n to

pla

ce

Pro

du

ctivity o

f a

gri

cu

ltu

ral l

an

dsca

pe

De

sir

e to

in

cre

ase

fa

rm p

rod

uctivity

La

nd

use

d fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

La

nd

ava

ilab

le fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Asth

etic v

alu

es o

f la

nd

sca

pe

De

sir

e to

lo

ve

fa

rm

life

sty

le

Ab

ility

to

in

cre

ase

p

rod

uctio

n

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Hu

ma

n h

ap

pin

ess

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Centrality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Fa

rm in

co

me

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

La

nd

cle

ari

ng

Desir

e to

lo

ve

fa

rm

life

sty

le

Hab

ita

t q

ua

lity

Sp

ecie

s d

ive

rsity

De

sir

e to

in

cre

ase

fa

rm p

rod

uctivity

Con

ne

ctio

n to

pla

ce

Hu

ma

n h

ap

pin

ess

Ab

ility

to

in

cre

ase

p

rod

uctio

n

Asth

etic v

alu

es o

f la

nd

sca

pe

La

nd

ava

ilab

le fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

La

nd

use

d fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Pro

du

ctivity o

f a

gri

cu

ltu

ral l

an

dsca

pe

Indegree

74

Map22

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00F

arm

in

co

me

Pro

du

ctivity o

f a

gri

cu

ltu

ral l

an

dsca

pe

Ha

bita

t fr

ag

me

nta

tio

n

Ha

bita

t q

ua

lity

La

nd

cle

ari

ng

Sp

ecie

s d

ive

rsity

Co

nn

ectio

n to

pla

ce

La

nd

use

d fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

La

nd

ava

ilab

le fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

re

Asth

etic v

alu

es o

f la

nd

sca

pe

Ab

ility

to

in

cre

ase

p

rod

uctio

n

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

De

sir

e to

in

cre

ase

fa

rm p

rod

uctivity

De

sir

e to

lo

ve

fa

rm

life

sty

le

Fo

od

se

cu

rity

Hu

ma

n h

ap

pin

ess

Outdegree

75


Total Connections



0.24 7 12 0 0 12 0.33


Amazon forest 1 3.70 3.30 0.40

Burning 1 1.00 0.00 1.00

Construction of more roads 1 2.90 0.00 2.90

Converting to agriculture use 1 1.30 0.00 1.30


Logging 1 2.20 0.70 1.50

Tourists 1 1.30 0.60 0.70

Sum 3 1 3

% 42.86 14.29 42.86

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Am

azon

fore

st

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Constr

uction

of m

ore

ro

ads

Loggin

g

Tourists

Convert

ing

to a

griculture

use

Burn

ing

Centrality

76

Map 23

No values on connections…

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Am

azon

fore

st

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Loggin

g

Tourists

Burn

ing

Constr

uction

of m

ore

roads

Convert

ing t

o

agriculture

use

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Constr

uction

of m

ore

roads

Loggin

g

Convert

ing t

o

agriculture

use

Burn

ing

Tourists

Am

azon

fore

st

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Outdegree

77

Map 24


Total Connections



0.25 6 9 0 1 8 --



Fisheries / farming 1 2.40 1.00 1.40

Oil / gas 1 2.10 0.30 1.80

Open landscape 1 1.20 0.80 0.40

Rural settlements 1 2.30 1.50 0.80

Tourism 1 1.70 1.00 0.70

sum 0 0 6

% 0 0 100

78

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Fis

heries /

farm

ing

Rura

l settle

ments

Oil

/ gas

Tourism

Clim

ate

change

Open

landscape

Centrality

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

Rura

l settle

ments

Clim

ate

change

Fis

heries /

farm

ing

Tourism

Open landscape

Oil

/ gas

Indegree

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00

Oil

/ gas

Fis

heries /

farm

ing

Rura

l settle

ments

Touri

sm

Clim

ate

change

Open landscape

Outdegree

79

Map 25

No values on connections…

Map 26


Total Connections



0.17 13 28 0 0 28 2

80


Biodiversity 1 4.00 3.20 0.80

Clean-water 1 3.30 1.00 2.30


Ecological functioning 1 2.80 2.80 0.00

Economy (GDP) 1 3.70 0.40 3.30

Fertilizer use 1 1.70 1.30 0.40


Irrigation 1 2.00 0.50 1.50

Life Quality 1 3.60 3.20 0.40

Peace 1 2.20 2.20 0.00

Pesticide use 1 3.30 0.70 2.60

Recreation 1 2.60 1.90 0.70

Water delivery 1 2.70 0.50 2.20

Sum 1 2 10

% 7.69 15.38 76.92

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

Bio

div

ers

ity

Econom

y

(GD

P)

Life q

ualit

y

Cle

anw

ate

r

Pesticid

e u

se

Ecolo

gic

al

functionin

g

Clim

ate

change

Wate

r deliv

ery

Recre

ation

Peace

Industr

ialis

ation

Irrigation

Fert

ilizer

use

Centrality

81

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Bio

div

ers

ity

Life q

ualit

y

Ecolo

gic

al

functionin

g

Peace

Recre

ation

Fert

ilizer

use

Cle

anw

ate

r

Clim

ate

change

Pe

sticid

e u

se

Irrigation

Wate

r deliv

ery

Econom

y (

GD

P)

Industr

ialis

ation

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Econom

y (

GD

P)

Pesticid

e u

se

Cle

anw

ate

r

Wate

r deliv

ery

Clim

ate

change

Industr

ialis

ation

Irrigation

Bio

div

ers

ity

Recre

ation

Fert

ilizer

use

Life q

ualit

y

Ecolo

gic

al

functionin

g

Peace

Outdegree

82

Map 27


Total Connections



0.27 9 22 0 0 22 0



Multifunctionality of land 1 2.40 1.70 0.70

Pollution 1 3.50 2.40 1.10

Probability of halting the loss of BD 1 3.90 3.00 0.90

Strongly regulated market 1 3.60 0.80 2.80

Success of policy enforcement 1 2.10 0.00 2.10

Sustainable consumption 1 4.80 2.50 2.30

Water availability 1 4.40 2.60 1.80

World human population 1 4.20 0.00 4.20

Sum 2 0 7

% 22.22 0 77.78

83

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.00

Susta

inable

consum

ption

Wate

r availa

bili

ty

World h

um

an

popula

tion

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Pro

perb

ility

of

haltin

g t

he loss o

f B

D

Str

ongly

regula

ted

mark

et

Pollu

tion

Multifunctionalit

y

of la

nd

Success o

f polic

y

enfo

rcem

ent

Centrality

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Pro

perb

ility

of

haltin

g t

he loss

of B

D

Wate

r availa

bili

ty

Susta

inable

consum

ption

Pollu

tion

Multifunctionalit

y

of la

nd

Str

ongly

re

gula

ted m

ark

et

Success o

f polic

y

enfo

rcem

ent

World h

um

an

popula

tion

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50

World h

um

an

popula

tion

Str

ongly

re

gula

ted m

ark

et

Susta

inable

consum

ption

Success o

f polic

y

enfo

rcem

ent

Wate

r availa

bili

ty

Pollu

tion

Pro

perb

ility

of

haltin

g t

he loss

of B

D

Multifunctionalit

y

of la

nd

Hum

an w

ell

bein

g

Outdegree

84

Map 28


Total Connections



0.3 9 24 0 0 24 1


Economy 1 2.40 2.40 0.00

Fresh water scarcity 1 3.50 2.00 1.50

Global temperature increase 1 3.10 0.00 3.10

Increase of population 1 2.10 0.70 1.40

Loss of natural resources 1 2.40 2.00 0.40

More extreme events 1 3.20 0.70 2.50

Security 1 2.50 1.70 0.80


Vector driven diseases 1 0.90 0.50 0.40

sum 1 1 7

% 11.11 11.11 77.78

85

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Fre

sh w

ate

r scarc

ity

Urb

anis

ation

More

extr

em

e

events

Glo

bal

tem

pe

ratu

re

incre

ase

Security

Loss o

f natu

ral

resourc

es

Econom

y

Incre

ase o

f popula

tion

Vecto

r driven

deseases

Centrality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Econom

y

Fre

sh w

ate

r scarc

ity

Loss o

f natu

ral

resourc

es

Security

Urb

anis

ation

Incre

ase o

f popula

tion

More

extr

em

e

events

Vecto

r driven

deseases

Glo

bal

tem

pera

ture

in

cre

ase

Indegree

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Glo

bal

tem

pera

ture

in

cre

ase

More

extr

em

e

events

Urb

anis

ation

Fre

sh w

ate

r scarc

ity

Incre

ase o

f popula

tion

Security

Lo

ss o

f natu

ral

resourc

es

Vecto

r driven

deseases

Econom

y

Outdegree

86

Map29


Total Connections

No Connection

Self Loops


0.12 10 12 0 0 12 1


Agriculture subsidies 1 0.80 0.00 0.80

Carbon stocks 1 1.20 0.60 0.60


Income from tourism 1 1.00 0.80 0.20

Income from agriculture 1 1.70 1.00 0.70

Nature consumption value 1 0.80 0.30 0.50

Number of tourists 1 1.70 0.50 1.20

Over-grazing 1 0.50 0.20 0.30

Quality of life 1 1.10 1.10 0.00

Water quality 1 0.40 0.20 0.20

Sum 1 1 8

% 10 10 80

87

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80

Nu

mb

er

of

tou

rists

Inco

me

fro

m

tou

rism

Ca

rbo

n

sto

cks

Qu

alit

y o

f lif

e

Inco

me

fro

m

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

su

bsid

ies

Na

ture

co

nsu

mp

tion

va

lue

Ove

r-g

razin

g

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Centrality

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Qu

alit

y o

f lif

e

Inco

me

fro

m

tou

rism

Inco

me

fro

m

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Carb

on

sto

cks

Num

be

r o

f to

uri

sts

Na

ture

co

nsu

mp

tion

va

lue

Ove

r-g

razin

g

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

su

bsid

ies

Indegree

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40

Num

be

r o

f to

uri

sts

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

su

bsid

ies

Inco

me

fro

m

tou

rism

Carb

on

sto

cks

Natu

re

co

nsu

mp

tion

va

lue

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Ove

r-g

razin

g

Inco

me

fro

m

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Wate

r q

ua

lity

Qu

alit

y o

f lif

e

Outdegree

88

Acknowledgment I would like to thank all the students of the 2009 ALTER-Net Summer School for participating in the

FCM exercise. Also all the speakers who gave inspiring talks, shared there thoughts or gave furious

Scottish dance lessons.

And last but not least: Special thanks to Allan, Sabine and Wolfgang who made this great summer

school possible!

References: Eden, C., Ackermann, F., & Cropper, S. 1992. The analysis of cause maps. Journal of Management

Studies, 29(3), pp. 309-324.

Hage P and Harary F 1983. Structural Models in Anthropology. Oxford University Press, New York

Harary F, Norman R Z, Cartwright D (1965) Structural Models: An Introduction to the Theory of Directed

Graphs. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, London, Sydney

Kosko B (1986). Fuzzy cognitive maps. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies 1:65–75

Özesmi, U., Özesmi, S.L., 2004. Ecological models based on people's knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy

cognitive mapping approach. Ecological Modelling. 176.1-2: 43-64.

Reimann S. 1998. On the design of artificial auto-associative neural networks. Neural Networks 11, pp.

611–621.

Simon, H.A., 1996. The Science of the Artificial. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

Yaman D., Polat, S. 2009. A fuzzy cognitive map approach for effect-based operations: An illustrative

case. Information Sciences, Volume 179, Issue 4, 1, Pages 382-403

(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V0C-4TRCYJR-

1/2/7489c08402cd99ac2faabd52f33766b3)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V0C-4TRCYJR-1/2/7489c08402cd99ac2faabd52f33766b3

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V0C-4TRCYJR-1/2/7489c08402cd99ac2faabd52f33766b3

pyeresq fuzzy cogniitive mapping - fcmappers.net · in this document the results of a fuzzy...

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