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Evening RoundupDecember 16, 2019
U.S. Manufacturing PMI @ 20 :15 IST
A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
34/659-P, Civil Line Road,
Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Day So Far
• As this week’s trading session commences, investors sentiments boosted owingto preliminary trade deal agreed between US and China, which considered as asignificant move by both countries to their 17-month old trade dispute. Globalequities surged, while commodities in the MCX platform seen on a firmer noteomitting some commodities. Meanwhile, Dollar index continued weakness.
• Bullion in global platform seen steady on dollar weakness along with cautiousstance taken by investors as they seek more clarity on “Phase one” trade dealbetween US and China. Gold and silver in London platform gained higher, whilesilver seen steady above $17 mark an ounce.
• Crude oil prices seen steady on easing trade issues between top twoeconomies. Meanwhile, soft dollar and OPEC decision of deeper cuts continuedto support the prices to a large extend. Both WTI and Brent ruled steady above$60/barrel and $65/barrel respectively. At the same time, Natural gas prices ininternational platform were little changed after previous seen corrective move.
• Base metals in London Metal Exchange edged up on demand hopes after USand China reached a truce after marathon trade talks. Majority of base metalsseen steady except Nickel, which shed moderately after Indonesian Nickelexports surged significantly ahead of export restriction next month.Meanwhile, China’s official data showed that aluminum output rose inNovember.
MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Last updated at 16:00 IST
GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES
LME STOCKRATIOS
Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious
Day CloseVol
Gold37914 0.37 37725 37920 37725 37773 5161
Silver 44480 0.8 44132 44535 44108 44126 8320
Crude Oil 4259 0.42 4236 4272 4230 4241 53543
Natural Gas 163.4 0.37 161.4 164 161.1 162.8 20137
Copper 442.5 0.57 441.15 443 440.9 440 4580
Nickel 1027.5 -0.49 1030 1030 1023 1032.6 5289
Lead 152.25 0 152.1 152.35 151.9 152.25 744
Zinc182 0.22 182.05 182.3 181.65 181.6 2603
Aluminium 133.5 0.41 132.95 133.5 132.85 132.95 453
Commodity Rate % Chg
Gold ($/oz)1477.766 0.15
Silver (c/oz) 17.0379 0.63
Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 60.02 -0.08
Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.296 0
LME Copper ($/T)6175 0.52
LME Nickel ($/T) 13820 -0.18
LME Lead ($/T) 1955.5 1.43
LME Zinc ($/T)2272.5 0.55
LME Aluminium ($/T) 1775 0.2
Indices Rate % Chg
Dow Jones Fut 28202.0 0.12
CAC** 5972.8 0.91
DAX** 13363.3 0.61
Shanghai* 2915.7 -0.3
MSCI Asia Pacific index 169.1 1.595
Baltic Dry index 1460 -4.45
Dollar index 97.06 -0.12
Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days
Daily High Low High Low High Low
Gold Silver ratio85.25 86.36 85.25 86.78 83.25 87.61 78.82
Gold Crude ratio141.49 144.22 141.49 152.54 141.49 162.95 134.29
Lead Zinc ratio0.84 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.80 0.88 0.80
Steel Nickel ratio36.05 36.50 35.63 42.99 34.05 44.73 34.05
Lead Aluminium ratio1.14 1.16 1.14 1.19 1.13 1.27 1.09
85.25 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold
141.49 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold
0.84 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead
36.05 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel
1.14 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead
Net
change
Warrant
change
Tonnage
ratio
Copper-4325 4525 30.02
Aluminium27400 17675 6.70
Nickel930 0 16.52
Zinc-800 350 23.38
Lead-50 -175 4.35
ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Importance Event Forecast Previous
Monday, December 16, 2019
7:30 China High Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 5.00% 4.70%
7:30 China High Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov) 5.60%
7:30 China High Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 7.60% 7.20%
7:30 China High Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Nov) 8.05%
7:30 China High Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.10%
12:00 India High WPI Inflation (YoY) (Nov) 0.74% 0.16%
12:00 India High WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Nov) -0.84%
14:30 Euro Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 47.3 46.9
14:30 Euro Moderate Services PMI (Dec) 52 51.9
20:15 US High Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 52.5 52.6
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
15:30 Euro Moderate Trade Balance (Oct) 17.0B 18.7B
19:00 US Moderate Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) 5.00%
19:00 US Moderate Building Permits (Nov) 1.400M 1.461M
19:00 US Moderate Housing Starts (Nov) 1.344M 1.314M
19:00 US Moderate Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov) 3.80%
19:45 US Moderate Capacity Utilization Rate (Nov) 77.20% 76.70%
19:45 US High Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -1.13%
19:45 US High Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.80% -0.80%
19:45 US Moderate Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.70% -0.60%
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
3:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1.410M
15:30 Euro Moderate CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.00% 0.70%
15:30 Euro Moderate CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.30% 0.10%
21:00 US V High EIA Crude Oil Inventories 0.822M
21:00 US V High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 4.118M
21:00 US V High EIA Gasoline Inventories 5.405M
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Tentative India High RBI MPC Meeting Minutes
19:00 US Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,678K 1,667K
19:00 US Moderate Current Account (Q3) -122.8B -128.2B
19:00 US Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 213K 252K
20:30 US Moderate Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.40% 1.90%
20:30 US Moderate Existing Home Sales (Nov) 5.45M 5.46M
21:00 US High Natural Gas Storage -73B
Friday, December 20, 2019
7:00 China Moderate PBoC Loan Prime Rate 4.15%
14:30 Euro Moderate Current Account (Oct) 28.2B
14:30 Euro Moderate Current Account n.s.a. (Oct) 35.8B
19:00 US High GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.10% 2.00%
19:00 US High Personal Income (MoM) (Nov) 0.30% 0.00%
19:00 US High Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 2.90%
20:30 US High Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 99.2 99.2
20:30 US High Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.40% 0.30%
20:30 Euro High Consumer Confidence (Dec) -7 -7.2
BULLION
GOLD M
MCX Jan
Intra Day
Near Term
Technical Levels
R3 39140/39320
R2 38480/38540/38840
R1 38250
Turnaround 38070
S1 37700/37450/37270
S2 37100/36930
S3 36800
Technical Commentary
Decisive trades above 38070 could lift prices higher. Failed to mark trades
above the same could push price lower to 37700 followed Bollinger lower
band level of 37450.
Technical Levels
R3 46700/47200
R2 44650/46200
R1 44740/45300
Turnaround 44050
S1 43700/43380
S2 43070/42800
S3 42350/42000
Technical Commentary
Customary buying sentiment likely to uphold in the coming session towards
the upside objective of 44740 followed by falling trend line resistance of
45300. On the contrary, direct fall below 44050 may dent our buying
expectation.
SILVER M
MCX Feb
Intra Day
Near Term
NATURAL GAS
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
CRUDEOIL
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
ENERGY
Technical Levels
R3 4530
R2 4475
R1 4355/4410
Turnaround 4305
S1 4215/4185
S2 4135/4095/4063
S3 3983/3950
Technical Commentary
Promising trades above the Bollinger upper band level of 4305 could entice
fresh buying for intraday. Inability to crack above the level of 4305 may grab
prices lower to 4215 followed by 4185.
Technical Levels
R3 179.70/183.40/186
R2 178.50/180.70
R1 165.30/168.50/171
Turnaround 159
S1 158/156.20
S2 153.20/152/144
S3 138
Technical Commentary
Major weakness could establish only below 159. Else could expect price
recovery initially towards 165.30 then to internal trend line resistance of
168.50 region.
NICKEL
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
COPPER
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 456
R2 452.70
R1 449
Turnaround 445-445.50
S1 441/437.60/433.70
S2 428/425.50/423
S3 420/418/415.20
Technical Commentary
Determined and sustainable trades above 445-445.50 region could lift prices
higher. Else could anticipate a corrective move 50-Day EMA level of 437.60.
Technical Levels
R3 1091
R2 1062/1072
R1 1049
Turnaround 1037
S1 1020/2011/973
S2 960/941/928
S3 917/905
Technical Commentary
As long as prices remain below the hindrance of 1037 could expect weakness
towards 1020 followed by the SMA Level of 1011. On the flipside, direct rise
above 1037 may lift prices higher.
Zinc M
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
Lead M
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 190.70/191.50
R2 187.60/189.30
R1 183.40/185.60
Turnaround 181
S1 180.20
S2 179
S3 178.30/176.70
Technical Levels
R3 160.40
R2 157.10/157.90
R1 154.40/155.20/156
Turnaround 153.10
S1 151.40/150
S2 149.40/148.90/147
S3 145.70
Technical Commentary
Intraday weakness could establish only below the horizontal trend line support
of 181 region. Which if remain undisturbed could expect a short covering move
towards SMA level of 183.40 region.
Technical Commentary
Weakness may persist towards the Bollinger lower band level of 151.40
followed by 150.30. But reclaiming trades above 153.10 could push prices
higher.
Alumini
MCX Dec
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 139
R2 136.90/137.80
R1 134.90/136
Turnaround 134.20
S1 132/130.50
S2 128.60/127.70
S3 125.50
Technical Commentary
Rising trades above the falling trend line resistance of 134.20 could lift prices
higher. Failed to withstand above 134.20 may drag prices lower to Bollinger
middle band level of 132.
Buying
sentiment/
Bullish
Selling
sentiment/
Bearish
Neutral/
sideways
S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling
pressure.
R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter
buying pressure.
GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:
CERTIFICATION
I,Krishna prasad N.B an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby
certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all
of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the
recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be
further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.
GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained
within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the
rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.
Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this
report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity
or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in
this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original
publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained
herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Geojit Financial Services Limited and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the
analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from
any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment
under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors
should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional
advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The
user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make
such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
Commodity/(ies) referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and
income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may
exceed their original capital.
The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is
recommended that an independent investment advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of
GFSL.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:
Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited
(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit
Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management
Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of
Insurance and MF Units). In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit Financial
Services Limited affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and we issue research reports /research
analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary
action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities.
In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also
provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:
1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:
GFSL confirms that:
It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity
futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.
Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:
He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,
and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.
2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:
During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from
any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.
3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:
It is affirmed that I,Krishna prasad N.B, employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation
of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the
report.
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity
futures.
Copyright in this report vests exclusively with GFSL
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.,34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Toll-Free Number: 1800-425-5501 / 1800-103-5501, Paid Number: 91 - 484 – 2901000
Research Entity SEBI Registration Number: INH200000345
Email id: customercare@geojit.com, Web: www.geojit.com
SEBI Stock Broker Registration No INZ000104737, Research Entity SEBI Reg No: INH200000345, Investment Adviser SEBI Reg No:
INA200002817, Portfolio Manager:INP000003203, SEBI Registration No. Stock Broker: INZ000104737 / Depository Participant: IN-DP-
325-2017, ARN Regn.Nos:0098, IRDA Corporate Agent (Composite) No.: CA0226.
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