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Equity Research21 January 2014
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 49.
Global Oil & Gas Weekly
European seismic: down, but not out Over the past few weeks all of the European seismic companies under our coverage have announced an update, ranging from utilisation figures to a full corporate restructuring vision. What is clear to us from all of these is that the upwards progression of marine contract pricing has stalled and investors, we believe, are expecting a much flatter environment. It is also clear, however, that the industry has not lost control. Yes, more multi-client activity will enter the mix in low utilisation periods, but aggressive pre-funding levels have not materialised, and capacity is being removed where possible. Hence, while a flat outlook appears a sensible planning assumption in an insipid demand growth environment, what that will look like in a years time, in our view, is more likely to surprise on the upside than the downside. As a result, we believe the seismic industry is down, but not out. With the pure vessel plays PGS and Polarcus trading on 6-8x 2014F PE, we believe that the poor market is largely factored into valuations. It may take indications of a better late northern hemisphere summer season to catalyse share price performance, but with all companies showing strong earnings growth, despite a tepid current environment, we remain comfortable with recommending European seismic stocks. Our preferred play is PGS, whose unique vessels appear to us to offer an advantage and whose dividend yield could soon remind investors of its capital discipline. For Polarcus, we believe this is a company that has continued to do the right things and is undervalued. However, with a weak current market, we see covenants as tight again in 2014 and therefore downgrade the shares to Equal Weight. Our least preferred plays are CGG, which despite another restructuring programme is still expecting only to generate below average industry margins, and TGS, which after recent moves is fully factoring in its investment programme, in our opinion.
Market is not what it was: Post summer 2013 the indications coming out of the seismic market have become more tepid as some eagerly awaited large contracts got held up and winter demand, as has often happened in the past, began to wane. In addition, the oil industry is on what we view as a renewed health drive. Excess spending is being evaluated and, as has been the case in the past, the seismic industry is again in the firing line.
Longer-term thesis more in balance: Despite signs of waning demand in the short term, longer-term we see the shift of seismic into the production arena and the ever-increasing need for higher resolution as sustaining activity, and the need to unlock new basins to drive down unit development costs. To this point, we expect multiple new basins to open up over the coming years globally. This positive trend is currently, we believe, being swamped by small delays that can significantly impact quarterly numbers. These are very likely to be a continued feature for the industry, but we believe the general trend is in the right direction.
SECTOR UPDATE
European Integrated Oil Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 lydia.rainforth@barclays.com Barclays, London
Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 joshua.stone@barclays.com Barclays, London
Americas Integrated Oil Paul Y. Cheng, CFA 1.212.526.1884 paul.cheng@barclays.com BCI, New York
North America Oil Services & Drilling James C. West 1.212.526.8796 james.west@barclays.com BCI, New York
European Oil Services & Drilling Mick Pickup +44 (0)20 3134 6695 mick.pickup@barclays.com Barclays, London
European Oil & Gas: E&P Alessandro Pozzi +44 (0)20 7773 4745 alessandro.pozzi@barclays.com Barclays, London
CEEMEA Oil & Gas Matthew Thomas +44 (0)20 7773 3640 matthew.j.thomas@barclays.com Barclays, London
Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas Somshankar Sinha +91 22 6719 6031 somshankar.sinha@barclays.com BSIPL, Mumbai
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 2
Barclays Research Industries included in this report
Industry Industry view Author(s)
Americas Integrated Oil Positive Paul Cheng CFA
Asia ex-Japan Oil Positive Somshankar Sinha, Clement Chen
CEEMEA Oil Neutral Matt Thomas
European Integrated Oil Positive Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone
European Exploration & Production Positive Alessandro Pozzi
European Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup
European Refining & Marketing Negative Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone
Russian Oil Services & Drilling Positive Mick Pickup
US Independent Refiners Positive Paul Cheng, CFA
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 3
CONTENTS
CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES .................................. 4
REFINING AND MARKETING MARGINS .................................... 5
TANKER AND EXCHANGE RATES............................................... 6
INVENTORIES ................................................................................... 7
CRACK SPREADS ............................................................................ 8
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE .................................................... 9 Valuations ........................................................................................................................... 11
REFINERS ........................................................................................ 17 Valuations ........................................................................................................................... 18 Share price performance ................................................................................................. 20
SERVICES ........................................................................................ 24 Valuations ........................................................................................................................... 25 Share price performance ................................................................................................. 27
E&PS ................................................................................................. 32 Valuations ........................................................................................................................... 33 Share price performance ................................................................................................. 35
GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OILS ......................................... 41 Valuations ........................................................................................................................... 42 Share price performance ................................................................................................. 44
The data source for all charts and tables is Company data, Barclays Research, unless otherwise stated. Share prices are as of 17 January 2014 at market close, unless otherwise stated.
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Corporate Calendar
2014
January
21 Cairn Q4 2013 Trading UpdateBaker Hughes Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseHalliburton Q4 2013 Earnings Release
27 Galp Energia Q4 2013 Trading Update
28 Chevron Q4 2013 Earnings Release
29 Repsol Exploration Day
30 Exxon Mobil Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseHess Corp Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseOMV Q4 2013 Trading UpdateRoyal Dutch Shell Q4 2013 Earnings Release
February
04 BG Group Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseBP Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseNeste Oil Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseSuncor Energy Q4 2013 Earnings Release
05 Marathon Oil Corp Q4 2013 Earnings Release
06 SBM Offshore Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseTGS Q4 2013 Earnings Release
07 Statoil Q4 2013 Earnings Release
10 Galp Energia Q4 2013 Earnings Release
12 Total SA Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseTullow Oil PLC Q4 2013 Earnings Release
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 4
Crude oil and natural gas prices
Henry Hub Rockies Russia UK-NBP Zee NE Asia LNG
Date Brent WTI ANS Kern River Dubai OPEC WTI-Maya Brent-Urals $/mBtu $/mBtu $/kcf p/therm p/therm $/mBtu
13-Jan-14 106.2 93.4 102.6 103.6 103.0 104.2 7.2 (0.3) 4.38 4.41 - 65.43 63.79 19.30
06-Jan-14 106.8 92.8 103.1 99.6 103.9 104.5 7.4 1.0 4.30 4.41 - 66.71 64.95 18.40
01-Jan-14 107.0 94.7 104.1 100.4 106.3 106.9 8.1 1.2 4.33 4.57 - 65.73 63.93 -
23-Dec-13 111.8 99.2 108.4 104.0 108.5 108.7 8.8 1.5 4.41 4.35 - 67.57 66.12 18.60
Jan-14 106.7 93.6 103.3 101.2 104.4 105.2 7.6 0.7 4.34 4.46 - 65.95 64.22 18.85
Dec-13 110.6 97.8 107.3 103.0 107.9 107.7 8.8 0.4 4.23 4.56 11.24 69.49 67.89 18.90
Nov-13 108.2 93.8 103.0 97.1 105.8 104.9 7.4 0.7 3.64 3.57 11.21 68.51 66.96 18.43
Oct-13 109.4 99.6 104.8 102.0 106.6 106.8 7.8 1.6 3.68 3.65 11.18 65.68 64.70 16.88
1Q 2014 106.7 93.6 103.3 101.2 104.4 105.2 7.6 0.7 4.34 4.46 - 65.95 64.22 18.85
4Q 2013 109.4 97.1 105.0 100.7 106.8 106.5 8.0 0.9 3.85 3.93 11.21 67.89 66.52 18.07
3Q 2013 110.0 105.6 111.0 109.8 106.0 106.7 6.5 (0.1) 3.81 3.40 11.22 65.06 64.96 15.65
2Q 2013 103.0 94.1 104.3 104.7 100.8 101.0 (3.8) 0.9 4.00 3.81 11.72 65.53 67.00 14.69
1Q 2013 112.8 94.3 110.4 113.9 108.0 109.4 (8.4) 2.1 3.50 3.50 12.30 74.27 71.44 17.95
4Q 2012 110.5 88.2 106.4 109.5 107.2 107.3 (5.0) 1.6 3.41 3.41 12.82 65.39 63.97 14.30
2014 106.7 93.6 103.3 101.2 104.4 105.2 7.6 0.7 4.34 4.46 - 65.95 64.22 18.85
2013 108.8 97.9 107.8 107.4 105.4 105.9 0.6 0.9 3.72 3.66 11.61 68.19 67.48 16.59
2012 112.1 94.3 110.9 111.9 109.1 109.6 (5.5) 1.7 2.75 2.68 12.87 59.56 59.32 15.14
2011 111.0 95.1 109.6 112.4 106.1 107.6 (3.6) 1.7 3.94 3.79 11.80 56.84 57.56 13.77
2010 79.7 79.5 78.9 82.8 78.1 77.5 9.2 1.4 4.37 3.94 9.77 42.52 43.06 11.13
2009 62.2 62.1 61.1 64.6 62.1 61.1 5.8 0.6 3.94 3.17 8.21 30.81 31.20 8.91
2008 97.2 99.1 97.9 91.5 93.2 93.5 15.5 3.3 8.82 6.30 10.98 58.11 58.99 11.42
2007 72.7 72.3 71.7 62.3 68.4 68.8 12.5 3.2 6.94 4.10 7.92 29.85 30.38 6.96
2006 65.8 66.2 63.6 55.1 61.6 61.0 15.1 4.9 6.75 5.27 7.19 40.20 43.33 6.46
2005 55.0 56.6 53.7 45.0 49.4 50.7 11.4 4.5 8.91 7.15 5.68 38.30 40.94 5.60
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets Source: WGI
Crude - $/blNatural gas
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 5
Refining and marketing margins
Date NW Europe US Gulf US W. Coast Singapore Med Eur 6 France Germany Italy UK PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5
13-Jan-14 (0.50) 10.99 3.80 6.09 (1.26) 19.48 14.83 15.51 26.98 13.97 14.86 9.11 5.54 24.02 13.10
06-Jan-14 (0.82) 11.34 4.79 5.56 (0.34) 18.89 14.33 16.44 26.16 11.87 15.75 7.52 5.88 22.56 10.73
01-Jan-14 1.02 8.87 6.10 5.72 1.43 - - - - - 11.69 6.48 2.96 18.44 0.41
23-Dec-13 (1.39) 8.75 6.78 4.26 (0.74) - - - - - 12.19 6.77 3.12 19.20 0.49
Jan-14 (0.10) 10.40 4.89 5.79 (0.06) 19.18 14.58 15.97 26.57 12.92 14.10 7.70 4.79 21.67 8.08
Dec-13 (1.33) 6.85 3.87 3.80 (1.69) 18.73 12.74 19.84 25.02 10.66 15.53 6.79 6.10 22.45 5.06
Nov-13 (1.71) 7.90 5.88 2.65 (1.68) 16.77 9.70 19.75 21.97 9.20 15.21 7.78 7.50 28.74 5.93
Oct-13 (1.30) 3.43 8.51 3.11 (0.22) 19.31 11.93 20.73 25.65 10.83 14.48 12.03 7.65 37.29 5.09
1Q 2014 (0.10) 10.40 4.89 5.79 (0.06) 19.18 14.58 15.97 26.57 12.92 14.10 7.70 4.79 21.67 8.08
4Q 2013 (1.45) 6.06 6.08 3.19 (1.20) 18.27 11.46 20.10 24.21 10.23 15.08 8.87 7.08 29.49 5.36
3Q 2013 0.13 3.75 9.37 4.84 -0.68 17.65 10.92 19.37 23.53 9.56 11.71 8.91 7.06 34.63 2.68
2Q 2013 1.28 11.27 13.63 7.35 1.60 18.52 14.14 20.76 22.46 11.98 12.41 20.09 9.87 37.73 4.29
1Q 2013 1.04 18.89 14.09 8.89 2.33 16.83 14.98 15.67 23.80 6.88 12.11 8.83 6.39 17.70 (2.76)
4Q 2012 1.57 19.37 12.34 7.24 2.18 18.55 12.21 20.36 25.68 13.65 18.51 13.37 10.54 37.63 9.46
2014 (0.10) 10.40 4.89 5.79 (0.06) 19.18 14.58 15.97 26.57 12.92 14.10 7.70 4.79 21.67 8.08
2013 0.28 9.95 10.86 6.10 0.52 17.80 12.80 18.99 23.48 9.64 12.83 11.57 7.60 29.82 2.29
2012 2.61 18.66 11.31 8.45 3.59 16.69 11.16 18.58 23.46 9.56 12.52 11.46 7.72 28.38 6.87
2011 0.22 15.02 6.91 8.49 1.33 17.74 14.18 14.27 27.47 9.01 11.65 11.46 8.57 17.26 7.08
2010 1.42 1.29 8.37 4.66 2.46 13.81 10.34 11.36 22.55 6.20 9.07 9.42 7.62 14.49 6.14
2009 1.53 1.68 10.34 3.15 2.95 8.03 7.68 9.22 11.91 3.32 8.26 7.55 6.85 9.02 1.41
2008 3.94 1.42 9.51 8.43 6.54 12.54 11.71 9.76 19.83 8.85 13.30 10.86 11.52 13.87 7.58
2007 2.63 5.72 17.56 6.65 6.08 9.32 7.87 8.10 14.90 6.39 10.56 11.35 8.99 13.02 2.39
2006 1.26 3.53 16.94 5.00 6.05 7.60 5.61 5.80 13.61 5.36 12.52 8.64 10.27 11.49 2.60
2005 2.90 4.62 14.16 6.39 6.40 6.55 4.32 3.01 10.87 4.17 9.08 7.16 8.16 8.73 2.64
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Refining margins - $/bl US gasoline marketing margins - $/blEuropean marketing margins - $/bl
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 6
Tanker and exchange rates
Date Suezmax Aframax Clean Dirty EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/EUR USD/NOK USD/CAD USD/AUS
13-Jan-14 81,960 73,170 35,756 11,083 1.36 1.64 1.20 6.14 1.09 1.12
06-Jan-14 73,201 44,471 28,325 11,517 1.36 1.64 1.21 6.18 1.08 1.12
01-Jan-14 56,081 46,048 23,718 11,038 1.37 1.65 1.20 6.10 1.06 1.12
23-Dec-13 56,362 50,033 21,008 12,614 1.37 1.64 1.20 6.14 1.06 1.12
Jan-14 70,414 54,563 29,266 11,213 1.36 1.64 1.21 6.15 1.08 1.12
Dec-13 50,323 34,560 13,400 12,860 1.37 1.64 1.20 6.14 1.06 1.11
Nov-13 15,335 10,789 6,828 9,939 1.35 1.61 1.19 6.10 1.05 1.07
Oct-13 7,783 12,778 9,189 9,375 1.36 1.61 1.18 5.95 1.04 1.05
1Q 2014 70,414 54,563 29,266 11,213 1.36 1.64 1.21 6.15 1.08 1.12
4Q 2013 23,777 18,715 9,576 10,664 1.36 1.62 1.19 6.06 1.05 1.08
3Q 2013 11,704 13,010 12,432 11,439 1.32 1.54 1.17 5.96 1.04 1.09
2Q 2013 12,134 11,765 11,833 12,983 1.31 1.53 1.18 5.84 1.02 1.01
1Q 2013 15,176 14,118 14,293 21,518 1.32 1.55 1.18 5.63 1.00 0.96
4Q 2012 11,577 13,954 15,610 15,348 1.30 1.61 1.24 5.68 0.99 0.96
2014 70,414 54,563 29,266 11,213 1.36 1.64 1.21 6.15 1.08 1.12
2013 15,698 14,402 12,033 14,151 1.33 1.56 1.18 5.87 1.03 1.03
2012 17,738 14,881 14,769 13,162 1.29 1.59 1.23 5.82 1.00 0.97
2011 19,239 13,528 10,535 12,644 1.39 1.60 1.15 5.61 0.99 0.97
2010 31,259 19,745 14,956 11,292 1.33 1.55 1.17 6.05 1.03 1.09
2009 28,205 15,969 12,738 8,869 1.39 1.57 1.12 6.29 1.14 1.28
2008 78,573 50,923 37,239 25,508 1.47 1.85 1.26 5.65 1.07 1.20
2007 44,781 35,865 30,533 26,018 1.37 2.00 1.46 5.86 1.07 1.19
2006 52,931 39,338 30,758 27,227 1.26 1.84 1.47 6.41 1.13 1.33
2005 53,579 41,650 37,639 31,145 1.24 1.82 1.46 6.44 1.21 1.31
Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly Source: Datastream
Tanker rates - $/ship/day Exchange rates
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 7
Inventories
US crude oil inventories, m bl US gasoline inventories, m bl US distillate inventories, m bl
240
280
320
360
400
440
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2013 2014Week
170
190
210
230
250
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2013 2014Week
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2013 2014Week
US total inventories, m bl US Refinery Utilisation, % Natural Gas Storage, bcf
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2013 2014Week
65
75
85
95
105
Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13
Refinery utilisation Rolling 12 month average
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range 2013 2014Week
Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count
050
100150200250300350400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
2013 2014Week
707580859095
100105110
Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18
Brent WTI
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13
Gas Rigs Oil Rigs
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 8
Crack spreads
European Gasoline Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
-10
0
10
20
30
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2013 2014Week
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2013 2014Week
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2013 2014Week
European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2013 2014Week
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
10 Year Range 2013 2014Week
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range 2013 2014Week
Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl Brent Spot Price $/bl
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
30
60
90
120
150
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 9
Share price performance
European Integrateds vs European Market European Services vs European Market European Refiners vs European Market
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
6065707580859095
100105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
European E&P vs European Market European Integrateds vs European Services European Integrateds vs European Refiners
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
European Integrateds vs European E&P European Services vs European Refiners European Services vs European E&P
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage. Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 10
Integrateds
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 11
Valuations IntegratedsChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 17-Jan Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
MajorsBP U/W 491 550 12 6.3 5.6 5.4 11.0 9.6 9.4 0.3 2.6 2.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 9.1 9.4 9.4 51.2 53.4 -1
Chevron* E/W 119 145 22 6.7 6.9 6.9 10.7 11.6 12.0 (2.4) (0.1) (0.3) 3.3 3.6 3.9 15.5 11.0 11.0 10.3 11.6 -4
ExxonMobil* E/W 99.2 102.0 3 9.4 9.1 9.6 13.4 13.3 14.7 2.9 4.0 3.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 18.6 14.1 14.1 7.5 7.9 -1
Royal Dutch Shell A O/W 2175 2660 22 6.4 6.0 5.9 11.4 9.4 9.4 3.7 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 10.1 10.9 10.9 3.8 3.8 -1
Royal Dutch Shell B O/W 2280 2660 17 6.6 6.3 6.1 12.0 9.9 9.8 3.5 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.5 10.1 10.9 10.9 3.8 3.8 -4
Total E/W 44.1 55.0 25 5.2 4.8 4.6 9.3 9.3 9.2 (0.8) 3.0 4.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 12.1 11.1 11.1 4.7 5.0 -3
Arithmetic average 17 6.8 6.5 6.4 11.3 10.5 10.8 1.2 3.1 3.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 12.6 11.2 11.2 -2
Integrated - EuropeBG Group E/W 1345 1500 12 10.1 10.2 8.2 16.8 16.5 12.6 (6.0) (5.7) 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 9.5 10.0 10.0 81.7 86.4 -2
Eni O/W 17.2 23.5 36 5.1 4.5 4.0 13.2 11.0 9.0 (0.1) 4.3 7.1 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.0 9.2 9.2 1.6 1.6 -5
Galp O/W 12.0 17.0 42 13.4 14.5 12.1 35.9 31.4 23.6 (4.7) (6.5) (4.2) 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.8 6.0 6.0 0.4 0.5 -2
MOL U/W 14300 15500 8 5.3 5.8 5.2 10.4 10.7 9.3 12.6 4.2 7.4 2.9 2.8 3.2 7.3 6.7 6.7 1334 1658 -15
OMV U/W 35.3 38.0 8 4.9 4.6 4.6 9.2 9.1 9.0 10.0 (2.4) (0.2) 3.5 3.7 3.8 9.8 8.0 8.0 3.9 4.2 -2
Repsol E/W 19.0 23.0 21 6.4 6.1 5.7 17.3 15.1 13.1 0.7 3.6 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.0 7.5 7.5 1.3 1.5 -3
Statoil O/W 152.7 175.0 15 4.4 4.2 4.2 10.1 11.1 11.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 4.6 4.7 4.9 13.2 10.0 10.0 13.8 15.3 0
Arithmetic average 20 7.1 7.1 6.3 16.1 15.0 12.5 1.8 (0.3) 2.2 3.8 3.9 4.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 -4
Integrated - US*ConocoPhillips O/W 67.5 83.0 23 6.5 6.7 6.6 11.9 12.3 11.6 (0.5) (1.8) (2.1) 4.0 4.1 4.2 11.1 10.1 10.1 5.5 6.1 -4
Hess O/W 77.1 90.0 17 6.2 7.0 6.3 13.7 20.0 17.0 (3.9) (0.9) 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 7.4 5.7 5.7 3.9 5.3 -8
Murphy E/W 62.8 69.0 10 5.5 5.1 4.9 13.8 12.9 12.7 (6) (5.5) (1.7) 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.5 7.5 7.5 4.9 6.1 -6
Arithmetic average 17 6.0 6.1 5.8 12.8 14.9 13.8 (2.5) (2.1) (0.5) 2.2 2.3 2.4 9.0 7.6 7.6 -5
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on return on market capitalisation under mid-cycle assumptions.
P/E, x Dividend yield, % RoACE, %FCF yield, %Barclays
2013Cons 2014
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. * Chevron, Exxon Mobil and the US Integrateds are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York. The forecasts for these companies are based on assumptions which are aligned but may sometimes differ from those used for the European companies.
EV:EBIDA, x
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 12
Valuations Integrateds
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
0
5
10
15
20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EV/EBIDA 2014 Average
05
101520253035
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
P/E 2014 Average
01234567
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
Dividend Yield, % 2014 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-5
0
5
10
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
FCF Yield, % 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
20
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
RoACE, % 2014 Average
0102030405060
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
2013 2014
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV/b, $
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2014 Average
-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.30
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EPS Growth 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
20
25
B
P
C
V
X
X
O
M
R
D
S
T
O
T
B
G
E
N
I
G
a
l
p
M
O
L
O
M
V
R
E
P
S
T
L
C
O
P
H
E
S
M
U
R
EV: 2P reserves 2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 13
Share price performance Integrateds
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
MOLOMV
ENIBP
RDSACOP
GALPREPSTL
CVXXOMTOT
BG
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
MOLCOPCVX
XOMGALP
TOTENI
OMVRDSA
REPBP
STLBG
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
COPGALPMOL
ENITOT
OMVCVXREPSTL
RDSABGBP
XOM
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Integrateds vs Brent European Integrateds vs US Integrateds
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
MOLENISTL
GALPRDSA
CVXBP
XOMTOTCOPREP
OMVBG
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-1480
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
BP vs European Integrateds Chevron vs US Integrateds ConocoPhillips vs US Integrateds
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
BP vs Sector BP, p
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
CVX vs Sector CVX, $
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
COP vs Sector COP, $
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 14
Share price performance Integrateds
Exxon Mobil vs US Integrateds Royal Dutch Shell A vs Royal Dutch Shell B Royal Dutch Shell A vs European Integrateds
80
85
90
95
100
105
90
94
98
102
106
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14XOM vs Sector XOM, $
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
106
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14RDSA vs Sector RDSA, p
Total vs European Integrateds BG Group vs European Integrateds Eni vs European Integrateds
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14TOT vs Sector TOT, E
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14BG vs Sector BG, p
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14ENI vs Sector ENI, E
Galp vs European Integrateds Repsol vs European Integrateds Statoil vs European Integrateds
101111121213131414
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14GALP vs Sector GALP, E
121314151617181920
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14REP vs Sector REP, E
110
120
130
140
150
160
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14STL vs Sector STL, NOK
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 15
Share price performance Integrateds
BP vs Total BP vs Shell Total vs Eni
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Total vs Shell BG vs Statoil Eni vs Repsol
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
OMV vs Repsol BG vs Eni Eni vs Statoil
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 16
Share price performance Integrateds Local Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9Hang Seng 23133 0.6 1.3 1.4 -2.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.0 9.9 -6.6 -1.7 8.8 4.1
Integrated - MajorsBP 491 0.9 -1.4 0.7 3.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 15.4 0.6 -1.4 1.1 -2.5 42.2Chevron 119 0.4 -1.4 -4.1 -2.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 3.0 2.0 -1.1 9.9 -7.8 72.7ExxonMobil 99.2 0.2 -1.4 -0.4 3.7 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 17.7 -4.7 -0.5 4.1 -5.7 61.5Royal Dutch Shell A 26.4 -0.4 -0.8 0.7 5.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0 3.1 -1.4 -5.5 -1.9 40.7Royal Dutch Shell B 2280 -0.5 -1.5 0.4 6.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 10.1 3.9 -0.8 -6.2 -1.5 51.1Total 44.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 5.1 18.8 1.6 -6.7 1.5 11.1Arithmetic Average 0.2 -1.0 -0.4 3.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 10.0 3.9 -0.6 -0.6 -3.0 46.6
Integrated - EuropeBG Group 1345 0.1 1.7 3.7 10.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 12.8 11.1 -1.4 4.2 -20.3 33.3Eni 17.2 -0.4 -1.8 -1.8 0.3 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 3.1 10.2 -8.9 -6.9 8.1 19.5Galp 12.0 1.2 -0.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -3.0 9.9 -5.8 1.2 -6.4 6.9OMV 35.3 -2.5 -1.0 1.7 1.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.6 4.4 5.8 18.1 1.6 16.9Repsol 19.0 -0.5 -0.4 4.6 6.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.1 18.1 3.5 0.7 7.9 -1.5Statoil 153 -1.0 0.4 3.8 9.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 7.5 8.7 -15.5 -3.1 -3.9 37.4Arithmetic Average -0.5 -0.3 2.1 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 10.4 -3.7 2.4 -2.2 18.8
Integrated - USConocoPhillips 67.5 -0.5 -2.0 -3.5 -4.6 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 0.9 13.5 0.0 3.6 1.0 53.5Cenovus Energy 29.5 -0.3 -1.7 -4.4 -7.9 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -4.1 4.7 -8.8 -7.4 -5.2 35.4Hess 77.1 -0.8 -4.7 -3.9 -4.6 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 5.5 15.9 -9.6 35.2 -1.8 7.5Husky Energy 33.3 -0.2 -0.8 -2.9 6.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 10.5 8.0 -7.2 -2.8 8.1 13.2Imperial Oil 46.0 -0.1 -0.7 -4.0 -4.4 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 1.4 15.1 -6.6 -4.8 -7.7 26.2Murphy 62.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.8 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 6.6 14.2 -3.8 7.0 8.3 9.7Suncor 37.4 -0.7 -1.8 -0.9 1.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 21.4 -3.1 -8.8 -1.3 11.6Arithmetic Average -0.3 -1.7 -2.9 -2.2 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 2.6 13.3 -5.6 3.2 0.2 22.4
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for
companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted
average for our coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 17
Refiners
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 18
Valuations RefinersChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 17-Jan Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Refiners - EuropeEssar Energy E/W 69 70 2 25.6 15.3 8.4 29.4 4.5 3.1 (59) (16.9) 17.9 0.0 2.2 3.2 4.2 6.6 6.6 15.29 18.96 -
Hellenic E/W 7.53 9.00 20 8.2 7.1 6.5 13.5 9.2 8.4 8.6 12.7 13.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 7.8 7.8 0.82 0.40 -44
Grupa Lotos E/W 35.5 34.0 (4) 9.3 8.4 8.6 14.5 10.5 11.7 3.8 6.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.38 4.40 4
Motor Oil O/W 8.92 9.50 7 8.7 6.9 6.7 13.3 8.8 9.4 12.6 16.4 15.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.9 10.7 10.7 1.02 1.00 -5
Neste Oil U/W 14.17 15.5 9 6.2 6.4 5.8 8.8 11.3 11.0 13.1 9.8 10.7 2.9 3.2 3.2 10.0 7.4 7.4 1.25 1.29 -8
PKN Orlen U/W 42.1 40.0 (5) 6.0 5.2 4.2 14.8 11.8 9.2 7.7 10.1 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 6.8 6.8 3.57 3.47 -13
Saras U/W 0.87 1.00 16 5.1 3.8 3.3 (86) 35 36.0 8.2 14.6 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 2.9 2.9 0.03 0.02 -95
Tupras U/W 42.5 42.8 1 8.2 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.1 8.5 (26) 3.1 7.7 8.8 9.5 9.9 18.9 16.9 14.0 6.01 4.83 3
Arithmetic average 6 9.7 7.6 6.4 2.0 12.2 12.1 (3.9) 7.0 12.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 8.1 7.8 7.5 -27
Refiners - US*Alon USA Energy U/W 15.9 14.0 (12) 13.4 6.9 9.7 45.4 12.7 26.5 1.8 8.9 5.5 2.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 5.2 5.2 1.25 0.94 371
Delek US Holdings O/W 32.1 35.0 9 7.9 7.5 8.2 14.6 14.0 15.7 (6.2) 2.8 0.2 2.3 2.3 3.0 16.3 11.7 11.7 2.30 2.55 28
Tesoro O/W 52.6 110 109 8.0 5.4 5.0 17.2 9.1 7.6 4 4.8 3.5 1.7 2.5 3.2 10.5 17.2 17.2 5.80 6.08 9
Valero O/W 51.4 64.0 24 8.1 5.5 5.6 13.9 8.1 9.0 4.4 8.3 7.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 9.5 12.7 12.7 6.35 5.60 24
Arithmetic average 33 9.4 6.3 7.1 22.8 11.0 14.7 0.9 6.2 4.1 2.0 2.2 2.9 10.1 11.7 11.7 108
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on an assumed discount to the estimated greenfield replacement value.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. *The US Refiners are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York.
Dividend yield, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, %Barclays
2014Cons 2014
RoACE, %
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 19
Valuations Refiners
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
0
5
10
15
20
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EV/EBIDA 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
P/E 2014 Average
0
2
4
6
8
10
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
Dividend Yield, % 2014 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-20
-10
0
10
20
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
FCF Yield, % 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
20
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
RoACE, % 2014 Average
-500
50100150200250300350
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
2013 2014
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV: Capital employed, x
-200
20406080
100120
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2014 Average
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EPS Growth 2014 Average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
E
S
S
R
H
E
P
L
O
T
M
O
H
N
E
S
T
O
R
L
P
K
N
S
R
S
T
U
P
A
L
J
D
K
T
S
O
V
L
O
EV/Capital Employed 2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays estimates
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 20
Share price performance Refiners
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
NES1VORL
ELPEPKN
SectorESSR
TUPRSLTSSRS
MOHBrent
-10 -5 0 5
TUPRSELPEESSRORL
BrentSector
LTSPKN
NES1VMOH
SRS
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
ESSRELPE
TUPRSNES1V
SRSSector
PKNLTS
BrentMOHORL
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Refiners vs Brent European Refiners vs US Refiners
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40
ESSRTUPRS
ORLPKNSRSLTS
SectorELPEBrentMOH
NES1V
707580859095
100105110115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Essar vs European Refiners Hellenic Petroleum vs European Refiners Lotos Group vs European Refiners
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
405060708090
100110120130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14ESSAR vs Sector ESSR, p
2345678910
5060708090
100110120130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14ELPE vs Sector ELPE, E
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14LTS vs Sector LTS, PLN
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 21
Share price performance Refiners
Motor Oil vs European Refiners Neste Oil vs European Refiners ORL vs European Refiners
2
4
6
8
10
50
70
90
110
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14MOH vs Sector MOH, E
4
8
12
16
20
60708090
100110120130140150160170
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14NES1V vs Sector NES1V, E
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14ORL vs Sector ORL, ILS
PKN Orlen vs European Refiners Saras vs European Refiners Tupras vs European Refiners
25
35
45
55
65
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14PKN vs Sector PKN, PLN
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SRS vs Sector SRS, E
202530354045505560
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14Tupras vs Sector TUPRS, TRY
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 22
Share price performance Refiners
PKN Orlen vs Lotos Group Saras vs Motor Oil Saras vs Neste
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Neste vs Tupras Tupras vs Saras Hellenic vs Motor Oil
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Essar vs Neste
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 23
Share price performance RefinersLocal Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9Refiners - EuropeEssar Energy 69 2.3 -1.5 -4.8 -7.3 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -42.4 6.3 -6.9 7.9 1.2 -73.5Hellenic 7.53 0.1 -6.4 -3.9 -10.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 0.6 14.1 -5.0 -1.4 18.1 13.8Grupa Lotos 35.5 -0.3 2.0 -1.9 -5.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 6.6 -14.3 -5.5 32.0 15.7MOL 14300 -1.8 -1.6 -2.2 3.1 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -8.1 -2.7 5.9 -12.4 -4.6 -1.5Motor Oil 8.92 0.1 1.6 6.5 1.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 9.2 10.2 -2.4 -11.1 36.7 -12.5Neste Oil 14.17 -2.6 -4.5 -4.3 3.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -10.4 48.7 3.4 9.7 -3.9 -9.3ORL 1.08 -0.5 -3.1 -0.3 -7.8 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -8.1 -14.1 -15.6 -2.0 32.0 -4.7PKN Orlen 42.1 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -7.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 -5.8 -1.5 -11.5 -1.2 11.9 33.6Saras 0.87 0.1 -1.5 -1.9 -0.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 -7.7 -1.7 6.4 -6.8 -3.1 -38.8Tupras 42.5 -1.7 0.0 0.6 -14.2 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -7.2 -12.7 -19.8 5.3 25.7 23.6Arithmetic Average -0.6 -1.6 -1.4 -4.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -8.1 5.3 -6.0 -1.8 14.6 -5.4
Refiners - USAlon 15.9 0.3 -4.4 -3.2 14.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 62.3 -27.4 -23.0 5.3 28.8 127.2Delek 32.1 -0.4 -3.9 -3.2 7.1 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 61.9 -24.8 -27.1 55.8 -2.5 247.7HollyFrontier 48.0 1.1 -3.6 -2.8 2.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 18.8 3.4 -16.7 10.5 12.2 220.9Marathon Petroleum 85.3 -0.5 -6.3 -3.4 -2.2 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 42.7 -8.6 -20.9 42.2 13.8 NASunCoke Energy 21.4 0.0 -0.7 -4.3 -2.7 -6.1 -6.1 -6.1 32.9 21.1 -12.0 4.7 -6.5 NATesoro 52.6 -0.3 -8.6 -8.0 -8.9 -10.1 -10.1 -10.1 35.7 -15.3 -8.0 32.9 2.4 278.8Valero 51.4 1.1 -3.4 4.2 10.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 48.9 -0.3 -15.4 33.3 6.2 83.5Arithmetic Average 0.2 -4.4 -3.0 2.9 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 43.3 -7.4 -17.6 26.4 7.8 191.7
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies
under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
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21 January 2014 24
Services
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21 January 2014 25
Valuations ServicesChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 17-Jan Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Services - EuropeAker Solutions U/W 103 106 3 9.8 8.1 7.8 21.7 12.3 9.9 (6.5) 8.5 9.7 3.9 4.1 4.5 7.9 11.1 13.7 8.36 8.51 -6
CGG Veritas U/W 12.3 15.0 22 20.6 16.2 12.5 20.7 12.9 9.5 (31) (18.3) (12.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.7 5.6 0.95 0.98 -20
Hunting O/W 755 1100 46 10.0 8.3 7.1 12.6 10.4 9.2 3.3 7.1 10.0 2.6 3.2 3.6 8.8 10.4 11.7 72.25 65.43 -2
Maire Tecnimont O/W 1.82 2.00 10 13.6 9.9 6.1 21.1 9.5 6.2 (54.1) 4.2 19.2 0.0 3.2 4.8 8.0 12.2 12.2 0.19 0.11 0
Petrofac U/W 1263 1655 31 9.5 7.7 7.0 10.2 8.8 8.0 (2.7) (0.0) 2.4 3.5 4.2 4.6 29.1 26.0 23.0 2.34 1.99 -10PGS O/W 73.0 93 27 7.9 6.6 5.7 10.9 8.1 6.4 (6.8) (0.2) 0.7 4.2 4.6 5.5 8.7 10.2 11.3 1.47 1.43 -8
Polarcus E/W 4.51 6.2 37 5.4 5.1 4.4 10.5 6.1 3.9 1.1 3.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.12 0.12 -15
Saipem O/W 17.3 20.0 15 17.5 9.6 6.3 (23) 20.4 9.3 (3.9) 9.8 16.1 0.0 1.6 3.6 0.2 4.9 9.1 0.85 1.02 -15
SBM Offshore O/W 15.5 19.3 24 12.4 7.2 5.8 12.7 7.5 5.4 (21) (5.1) (3.1) 0.0 4.0 5.6 9.8 12.6 14.8 2.06 1.88 -1
Subsea 7 O/W 119 190 59 9.5 5.9 4.8 21.3 9.7 8.1 1.3 8.5 10.0 1.5 3.3 4.0 4.8 9.8 11.4 1.58 1.96 0
Technip O/W 66.9 100 49 7.3 5.7 4.8 12.2 9.7 8.6 7.2 8.9 10.9 2.8 3.4 3.7 11.2 13.6 14.8 6.93 5.11 -14Tecnicas Reunidas E/W 40.8 49 20 13.4 10.6 7.0 15.3 12.9 11.7 7.2 9.5 9.8 3.6 4.3 4.7 27.1 28.5 27.1 3.16 2.75 0
TGS U/W 170 180 6 4.3 4.0 3.7 10.9 10.7 9.9 4.6 6.6 6.9 5.3 5.4 5.1 21.4 19.6 19.4 2.58 2.55 -1
Wood Group O/W 660 1025 55 9.9 8.4 6.9 10.2 9.4 8.3 6.0 9.4 10.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 14.3 14.9 16.0 0.71 0.64 -3
Arithmetic average 29 10.8 8.2 6.5 12.0 10.6 8.2 (5.9) 4.1 7.2 2.2 3.2 3.8 11.7 13.3 14.1 -6Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Dividend yield, % RoACE, %Barclays
2014Cons 2014
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Valuations Services
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
-10-505
1015
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EV/EBIDA 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
P/E 2014 Average
0123456
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
Dividend Yield, % 2014 Average
Free cash flow yield, % RoACE, % Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
FCF Yield, % 2014 Average
05
1015202530
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
RoACE, % 2014 Average
-200-100
0100200300400500
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
2013 2014
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, % Dollar EPS change y/y, % EV:Capital Employed, x
-20
-10
0
10
20
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2014 Average
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EPS Growth 2014 Average
-4
1
6
11
16
A
K
S
O
C
G
G
H
T
G
M
T
P
F
C
P
L
C
S
P
G
S
S
P
M
S
B
M
S
U
B
T
E
C
T
R
S
T
G
S
W
G
EV/Capital Employed 2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
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21 January 2014 27
Share price performance Services
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
AMCTEC
CGGAKSO
HTGPGSSUB
SectorSBMOBrent
TREPFCWG
SPMMT
-5 0 5 10 15 20
BrentWG
AMCAKSO
HTGCGGTEC
SectorTRE
SBMOSUBMT
PGSSPMPFC
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
TECCGGWGSUBPFC
SectorHTGAMC
SBMOBrent
PGSTRE
SPMMT
AKSO
Change in USD share price over last year, % European Services vs US Services Amec vs European Services
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
SPMCGGPGS
AKSOSector
PFCSUBTECWG
HTGBrentAMCTREMT
SBMO
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
700
900
1100
1300
708090
100110120130140150
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14AMEC vs Sector AMEC, p
Aker Solutions vs European Services CGG Veritas vs European Services Maire Tecnimont vs European Services
405060708090100110120130
707580859095
100105110115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14AKSO vs Sector AKSO, NOK
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14CGG vs Sector CGG, E
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
10
60
110
160
210
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14MT vs Sector MT, E
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 28
Share price performance Services
Petrofac vs European Services PGS vs European Services Saipem vs European Services
100011001200130014001500160017001800
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14PFC vs Sector PFC, p
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14PGS vs Sector PGS, NOK
10
15
20
25
30
35
10
30
50
70
90
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SPM vs Sector SPM, E
SBM Offshore vs European Services Subsea 7 vs European Services Technip vs European Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
406080
100120140160180200220
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SBMO vs Sector SBMO, E
80
100
120
140
160
80859095
100105110115120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SUB vs Sector SUB, NOK
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14TEC vs Sector TEC, E
Tecnicas Reunidas vs European Services Wood Group vs European Services
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
8090
100110120130140150160
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14TRE vs Sector TRE, E
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14WG vs Sector WG, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
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Share price performance Services
Amec vs Wood Group Saipem vs Technip Petrofac vs Wood Group
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Maire Tecnimont vs Tecnicas Reunidas PGS vs CGG Veritas Petrofac vs Maire Tecnimont
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Petrofac vs Tecnicas Reunidas Subsea 7 vs Saipem Subsea 7 vs Technip
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
120
170
220
270
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research.
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Share price performance Services Local Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9
Oil Services - EuropeAker 103 -1.0 -1.9 -3.1 -0.9 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 27.1 2.7 -27.5 -8.2 5.3 101.9AMEC 1045 2.4 -3.4 -3.0 -4.3 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 3.6 12.7 -5.2 -1.7 -12.6 52.0CGG Veritas 12.3 -2.2 -1.2 -1.0 -16.3 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -25.0 3.7 -2.2 -24.2 -7.1 85.7Hunting 755 -0.8 -2.3 -2.7 -4.6 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -0.4 6.3 -18.0 5.0 -6.5 101.0Maire Tec 1.82 1.6 4.4 4.0 16.7 9.9 9.9 9.9 8.5 41.5 -18.2 -10.7 -38.0 -72.9Petrofac 1263 1.6 1.4 3.5 6.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 -11.6 23.4 -16.8 -17.5 1.3 49.3PGS 73.0 -0.3 0.1 5.2 9.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 -5.1 0.4 -21.7 -9.9 -0.5 104.6Polarcus 4.51 -1.0 -1.8 1.3 2.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 19.7 -21.3 -26.2 -8.2 5.1 68.2Saipem 17.3 3.2 10.1 9.1 8.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 -3.2 23.5 -47.3 -20.3 -21.0 56.8SBM 15.51 0.8 0.7 4.4 10.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.5 15.3 3.2 19.6 -4.9 0.3Subsea 7 119 0.5 0.1 3.5 3.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 -8.9 19.3 -25.7 -1.4 0.1 66.0Technip 66.9 -0.6 -3.4 -3.1 -9.3 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 -18.6 13.5 -1.3 -10.3 0.0 96.6Tecnicas 40.8 -0.7 1.7 4.3 6.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 17.0 -1.9 -2.3 1.5 -1.8 1.2TGS 170 -0.5 -4.5 12.4 14.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 -10.6 1.1 -23.6 15.7 -2.6 187.9Wood Group 660 1.0 1.5 -2.6 -17.0 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -12.1 3.5 -7.0 11.4 -10.8 172.3Arithmetic Average 0.3 0.1 2.0 1.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -1.2 9.1 -15.3 -3.9 -3.2 65.4
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
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21 January 2014 31
Share price performance Services Local Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9Oil Services - U.S.Baker Hughes 54.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.6 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 11.3 5.2 0.9 13.6 -9.3 8.4Basic Energy Systems 17.25 2.6 13.1 9.3 20.5 9.3 9.3 9.3 22.0 1.7 -3.7 19.8 5.7 50.4Bristow Group 73.3 -2.4 -3.1 -1.8 -7.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 0.8 10.7 0.4 22.9 6.9 72.2Cameron Int 58.7 -0.1 -1.3 0.6 4.8 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 0.6 -4.4 -4.0 15.5 1.0 73.0CARBO 112.2 2.5 -1.1 -2.3 -8.6 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 17.3 51.0 -23.4 16.2 22.8 -13.9Chart industries 90.6 -0.3 -0.5 -3.9 -1.6 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -25.1 27.9 19.7 20.0 -10.0 378.6Core Laboratories 191.0 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 11.8 13.1 26.2 -9.4 64.7Diamond Off 54.1 -0.4 -3.2 -4.2 -8.1 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -8.8 -9.4 -0.6 2.4 2.3 3.1Dresser-Rand 58.8 -0.4 1.0 -0.3 0.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -4.8 0.5 -1.3 9.8 2.9 75.6Dril-Quip 106.5 0.2 -1.6 -0.7 -2.5 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -5.4 24.8 5.5 19.3 2.4 63.3ENSCO 54.6 -0.4 -4.1 -3.5 -7.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 5.5 -7.3 -0.9 1.2 8.2 35.8Exterran Holdings 35.2 0.7 2.7 3.7 9.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 21.8 -2.9 9.0 23.2 8.0 -21.7FMC Tech 51.0 -0.2 -2.5 -1.7 0.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -7.1 -0.7 3.3 27.0 -8.7 73.3Global Geophysical 1.58 9.0 11.3 -7.1 6.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -40.4 -42.0 101.7 -36.4 -30.9 -19.7Gulfmark Offshore 44.2 0.6 -1.4 -5.2 -10.6 -6.3 -6.3 -6.3 -7.9 10.4 21.5 13.1 2.5 22.5Halliburton 50.7 -0.5 0.3 1.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 4.4 13.4 4.5 16.5 3.0 34.9Helmerich & Payne 85.7 0.9 0.1 3.1 7.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 18.6 8.1 4.4 8.4 19.4 30.5Hercules Offshore 5.64 -2.8 -7.1 -13.4 -8.1 -13.5 -13.5 -13.5 -13.2 4.6 -2.6 20.3 26.4 99.0Hornbeck Offshore 46.0 0.7 2.5 -5.1 -9.3 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -14.8 5.0 17.6 35.3 -7.1 139.5ION Geophysical 3.03 -0.3 0.0 -10.1 -4.7 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -38.1 -13.9 -9.9 4.6 -5.8 92.8Key Energy Ser 7.88 1.5 5.8 0.3 3.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 5.5 18.0 -21.0 16.3 -0.3 -23.6Nabors 17.3 0.5 1.2 2.8 9.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.9 1.5 -2.0 12.2 2.8 -20.4National Oilwell 77.0 -0.2 -1.4 -2.3 -5.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 0.9 12.1 -1.2 3.5 -15.1 141.0Noble Corp. 35.4 0.4 -3.1 -3.6 -6.5 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -2.2 -0.5 -0.7 9.6 -2.2 9.9Oceaneering 74.7 0.5 -3.1 -4.3 -6.2 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -3.2 9.1 8.9 23.5 -1.9 150.4Parker Drilling 8.06 0.6 1.4 -0.4 2.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 38.7 13.1 16.4 -7.0 7.2 16.9Patterson-UTI 25.0 0.2 -1.3 -1.0 5.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 15.1 6.0 -15.6 28.0 18.4 21.3Rowan Comp 32.8 -0.3 -3.2 -5.0 -4.2 -7.4 -7.4 -7.4 -4.9 6.7 -1.8 13.1 -6.7 55.7Schlumberger 90.2 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 21.4 -3.2 8.1 -4.5 30.9Seacor 87.2 -1.4 -2.1 -3.0 -5.7 -4.3 -4.3 -4.3 -0.4 7.3 14.6 13.3 -3.2 19.4Seadrill 247 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -4.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -10.5 9.1 10.4 -0.6 -9.1 119.0Superior Energy 26.1 0.9 4.6 1.6 2.4 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 4.0 -4.2 4.3 25.3 2.3 9.8Tenaris 16.4 1.0 2.3 3.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 -7.3 14.9 -1.6 -0.9 -1.6 16.7Tetra 11.33 -0.2 1.3 -7.3 -4.4 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -3.4 19.0 6.0 35.2 22.8 -30.6Thermon 28.2 -1.1 2.7 4.3 1.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 18.4 11.3 -7.4 -1.4 -11.8 NATidewater 56.4 -1.1 -5.2 -5.6 -3.0 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 0.6 3.9 13.4 13.0 -6.9 26.6Transocean 46.7 -1.1 -3.8 -4.1 -6.2 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 9.9 -7.8 -6.1 16.3 -3.4 -8.2Weatherford 14.7 0.1 1.3 -2.6 -3.4 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -3.1 10.8 12.8 8.5 -10.5 -4.1Arithmetic Average 0.3 0.2 -1.7 -1.0 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 0.3 6.5 4.8 13.0 0.2 48.5
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 32
E&Ps
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 33
Valuations E&P - EuropeChange in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 17-Jan Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F NAV NAV last mnth
E&Ps - EuropeAfren O/W 163 225 38 3.4 5.1 4.7 8.4 11.0 8.7 0.4 (1.5) (0.7) 30.5 31.7 29.3 225 207 7
Africa Oil E/W 56.5 78 38 nm nm nm nm nm nm (10.1) (12.7) (13.5) (54) (15.7) 28.0 78 83 1
Bowleven O/W 44 135 209 nm nm nm nm nm nm (7) (4) (1) (10) (2) (0) 135 142 -37
Enquest U/W 137.0 155.0 13 4.3 3.4 1.6 9.4 6.7 7.1 (29.5) 27.0 28.2 0 0.0 (0.2) 155 163 5
Oryx Petroleum O/W 14.1 20.0 42 nm nm nm nm nm nm (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0) 0.2 0.7 20 19 0
Premier Oil O/W 287.8 535.0 86 5.5 4.2 3.4 10.7 6.6 6.1 (14.1) (16.1) (3.6) 69 76.4 70.9 535 457 -3
Rockhopper Exploration O/W 158.5 235.0 48 nm nm nm nm nm nm (3.3) (7.3) (3.0) (90) (75.4) (70.3) 235 280 -1
Salamander Energy E/W 109.0 160.0 47 3.6 3.5 3.4 nm nm nm (30.5) 9.6 14.5 72 62.0 48.2 160 187 -2
Soco International U/W 411.6 405.0 (2) 6.6 6.4 5.4 10.4 11.1 9.9 9.7 8.9 9.6 (30) (38.0) (44.5) 405 428 3
Tullow Oil O/W 906.5 1490.0 64 10.2 10.8 12.4 22.1 24.0 27.8 (1.9) (1.8) (6.3) 25 29.3 42.9 1490 1236 -3
Arithmetic average 57 5.6 5.6 5.1 12.2 11.9 11.5 (9.9) (2.1) 0.6 (1.5) 5.5 10.5 19.4 -3Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
19.7 8.7
14.3 13.5
41.4 16.5
97.1
EV/2P+2Cx
9.0
-
14.4
6.0
- 3.5
15.9
12.4 5.9
7.8
1.1
17.7
-
Barclays 2014
Cons 2014
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x FCF yield, % Net Debt/Equity, %EV/2P
x
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 34
Valuations E&P - Europe
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Free cash flow yield, %
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
EV/EBIDA 2014 Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
P/E 2014 Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
FCF Yield, % 2014 Average
Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, % Dollar EPS Growth, y/y % EV:2P, x
-100%
-60%
-20%
20%
60%
100%
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
2013 2014
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
EPS Growth 2014 Average
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
EV: 2P reserves 2014 Average
EV/2P+2C, x Datastream consensus relative to Barclays NAV, % ROACE, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
EV: 3P reserves 2014 Average
-20
-10
0
10
20
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
Cons vs BC EPS (%) 2014 Average
-15-10
-505
1015
A
F
R
A
O
I
L
B
L
V
N
C
N
E
E
N
Q
O
X
C
P
M
O
R
K
H
S
M
R
S
I
A
RoACE, % 2014 Average
Source: Datastream
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 35
Share price performance E&P - Europe
Change in USD share price over last week, % Change in USD share price over last month, % Change in USD share price over last three months, %
-10 -5 0 5 10
PMOAFRCNE
SMDRAOIL
SectorBrentOXCRKHSIA
ENQTLW
BLVN
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PMOBrent
AFRENQCNE
SectorSIA
SMDRRKHTLWOXCAOILBLVN
-30 -20 -10 0 10
BLVNPMOCNETLW
BrentAOIL
SectorOXC
SIAENQRKH
SMDR
Change in USD share price over last year, % European E&P vs Brent European E&P vs European market
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40
SMDRBLVNTLWPMORKHCNE
SectorBrentENQAFRSIA
AOIL
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Afren vs European E&P Bowleven vs European E&P Cairn Energy vs European E&P
100110120130140150160170180
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14AFR vs Sector AFR, p
2030405060708090100110
1030507090
110130150170
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14BLVN vs Sector BLVN, p
220230240250260270280290300
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14CNE vs Sector CNE, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 36
Share price performance E&P - Europe
Enquest vs European E&P Premier Oil vs European E&P Rockhopper Exploration vs European E&P
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80859095
100105110115120125
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14ENQ vs Sector ENQ, p
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
80859095
100105110115120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14PMO vs Sector PMO, p
80
100
120
140
160
180
6065707580859095
100105
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14RKH vs Sector RKH, p
Salamander Energy vs European E&P Soco International vs European E&P Tullow Oil vs European E&P
80100120140160180200220240
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SMDR vs Sector SMDR, p
280300320340360380400420440
9095
100105110115120125130135
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14SIA vs Sector SIA, p
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14TLW vs Sector TLW, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 37
Share price performance E&P-Europe
Tullow Oil vs Cairn Energy Bowleven vs Salamander Energy Cairn Energy vs Premier Oil
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Tullow Oil vs Soco International Soco International vs Premier Oil Premier Oil vs Tullow Oil
30
50
70
90
110
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Afren vs Cairn Energy Afren vs Premier Oil Afren vs Soco International
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 38
Share price performance E&P - Europe & Israel Local Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9
E&P - EuropeAfren 163 -0.7 -3.7 -3.9 1.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 26.4 11.6 -9.1 1.0 -7.1 89.1Africa Oil 10 -1.6 -2.0 -0.4 -6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 18.6 -3.3 0.7 -27.7 811.0BowLeven 43.8 4.2 15.6 19.9 8.6 14.3 14.3 14.3 -31.3 1.9 -38.4 36.6 -16.3 -34.8Cairn Energy 267 1.5 -1.8 -2.2 -0.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 5.1 8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -4.5 -35.3Enquest 137 1.3 1.1 1.1 -0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 6.8 16.9 -18.0 11.8 4.5 27.8Premier Oil 288 0.6 -9.0 -9.0 -3.8 -8.9 -8.9 -8.9 -2.2 2.1 -14.7 7.9 -7.1 25.1Rockhopper Exploration 159 4.2 1.0 3.8 8.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 21.3 9.8 -18.6 -8.7 -10.1 -34.1Salamander Energy 109 1.6 -0.9 -2.4 10.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 2.7 -15.2 -31.0 2.2 -5.7 16.2Soco International 412 1.5 1.9 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 1.5 32.2 -7.4 -2.0 7.4 -8.2Tullow Oil 907 0.5 -0.6 6.0 1.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 -15.2 3.8 -19.0 -8.8 -9.2 47.6Arithmetic Average 1.2 -1.3 -0.3 -1.4 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.3 8.3 -14.4 3.2 -6.6 106.6E&P - IsraelAvner 3.28 -0.9 -1.3 0.6 -0.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 10.0 15.8 -3.6 4.5 20.7 31.1Delek Drilling 18.5 -1.3 -2.3 -0.1 -2.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.9 19.7 -4.6 4.9 23.8 30.3Delek Energy Systems 2419 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.7 37.0 3.6 5.3 6.3 58.3Isramco Negev 0.70 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -3.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 9.4 7.2 -6.4 9.1 31.0 5.3Ratio Oil 0.48 -1.4 -2.1 3.2 5.7 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 30.4 -1.8 0.3 29.7 27.5Arithmetic Average -0.7 -1.1 0.7 -0.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 6.9 22.0 -2.6 4.8 22.3 30.5
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
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Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly
21 January 2014 39
Share price performance E&P Canada Local Price
17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9E&P - (Canada)ARC Resources 28.2 -0.7 -1.6 -6.3 -5.7 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 9.4 -2.5 -0.7 7.6 -0.7 31.0Athabasca 7.0 1.5 -0.3 -0.3 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 -18.5 23.2 -28.4 -14.8 -21.2 29.4Baytex Energy 41.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.4 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -4.8 14.6 -14.3 -2.7 -9.8 58.8BlackPearl Resources 2.5 1.8 -2.6 8.7 0.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 16.1 20.8 -34.2 -24.6 -17.4 38.8Bonavista Energy 14.7 -0.4 0.4 4.1 4.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 4.9 -3.2 -11.4 -1.2 -17.1 -17.3Canadian Natural Res 35.7 -0.7 -1.6 -1.1 1.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 6.4 11.6 -11.7 11.5 -8.9 -7.2Canadian Oil Sands 20.3 0.3 1.3 0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -2.2 4.7 -10.6 1.8 -3.8 -15.7Crescent Point 39.4 -0.2 -1.7 -5.1 -5.3 -7.3 -7.3 -7.3 2.1 11.7 -10.5 -0.1 -15.6 26.7Enerplus 20.0 1.2 4.2 3.6 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.4 12.1 2.0 12.8 -23.4 -23.0Legacy Oil & Gas 6.0 0.4 0.6 -3.6 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -10.6 36.6 -12.8 -22.1 0.7 -36.7Lightstream 6.0 -0.1 -2.7 -1.7 3.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -25.3 -3.4 -12.5 -15.6 -27.3 -28.8Oryx Petroleum 14.1 0.3 -2.5 -2.4 3.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -5.1 4.9 NA NA NA NAParamount Resources 42.2 -0.9 4.1 6.0 11.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 3.1 3.1 -6.1 14.9 -1.5 74.5Pengrowth Energy 7.2 6.1 8.0 6.7 4.5 5.9 5.9 5.9 3.7 19.8 -3.2 2.6 -26.9 -26.3Penn West Petroleum 9.2 0.2 -0.9 -2.3 -2.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 -26.9 5.2 -0.8 -0.9 -23.5 -25.5Petrobank Energy 0.3 -1.7 -3.2 -9.8 -2.9 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -17.0 -11.7 -32.0 -36.1 -10.4 -27.9Peyto E&P 34.1 -2.0 1.6 0.9 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.8 2.3 9.2 14.9 -7.0 79.7Trilogy Energy 26.6 -0.8 -2.9 -3.8 -5.2 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -5.6 -4.6 2.6 -1.4 9.4 198.7Vermilion Energy 63.3 0.9 2.6 -1.1 2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 5.3 12.5 -5.7 -0.8 11.1 48.4Whitecap Resources 12.3 0.8 -0.2 -3.8 -5.5 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 1.4 13.2 8.1 9.6 13.7 59.8
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
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Share price performance E&P US
Local Price17-Jan -1d -5d -10d -30d MTD QTD YTD 4Q 13 3Q 13 2Q 13 1Q 13 4Q 12 3Q 12
Indices & marketsFTSE All 3656 0.8 0.9 1.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.1 9.7 -3.1 2.1 2.5 28.9StoxxEuro 321 -0.1 0.9 2.5 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 14.6 0.0 -0.6 7.3 4.6S&P 500 1839 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 4.1 2.8 10.0 -1.3 40.2MSCI EMG 1920 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.9 9.8 -1.7 4.4 5.2 12.9E&P - USAnadarko 80.1 -1.5 0.3 2.2 -7.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 -15.1 7.1 -0.5 17.7 5.2 88.1Apache 84.3 -1.9 -2.2 -1.4 -5.3 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -0.6 2.2 9.3 -1.7 -9.2 3.3Bill Barrett 27.3 0.4 2.1 7.1 4.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.6 22.5 0.6 13.9 -28.1 -18.6Cabot Oil & Gas 37.5 -1.8 -0.1 -1.2 6.5 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 4.5 5.7 6.4 35.9 8.8 187.1Chesapeake 25.5 -1.9 -1.0 -3.7 -3.9 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 3.4 24.6 0.1 22.8 -13.8 -9.4Cimarex 101.4 -0.5 6.6 0.1 5.7 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 6.0 45.2 -11.7 30.7 -1.1 -16.5Comstock 16.9 -1.3 1.0 -2.3 1.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 13.7 -0.6 -0.3 7.5 -21.5 -32.8Concho Resources 99.6 -1.2 0.7 -2.9 0.0 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -5.0 29.6 -14.0 20.9 -17.4 75.4Crimson Exploration NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NADenbury Resources 16.3 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -12.7 5.7 -4.8 15.1 -1.3 11.4Devon 59.0 -0.6 -2.5 -3.3 -2.4 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 5.6 10.5 -6.6 8.4 -14.4 -0.3Encana 17.7 0.1 1.1 0.7 -7.3 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 4.0 2.5 -11.9 -1.5 -13.2 -28.1EOG Resources 169.0 -0.7 1.3 2.7 5.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 -2.5 25.1 2.5 6.0 5.8 13.1Exco Resources 4.9 3.0 -1.6 -5.1 0.2 -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 -21.9 -9.2 10.1 5.3 -18.8 -46.2Forest Oil 3.3 -3.2 -7.1 -11.1 -13.5 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1 -43.5 47.7 -18.0 -21.4 -21.8 -56.1Gulfport Energy Corp. 54.8 -0.4 1.5 -7.6 -5.8 -13.1 -13.1 -13.1 -4.0 34.3 3.7 19.9 24.1 160.9Jones Energy 15.0 0.2 -1.1 2.0 7.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 -13.3 NA NA NA NA NAKosmos 10.2 -0.9 -8.5 -7.4 -9.5 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 7.3 -1.2 -9.8 -8.5 7.4 NAMarathon Oil 34.0 -0.6 -2.0 -1.6 -7.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 0.7 0.1 2.9 10.0 2.7 57.9Newfield Exploration 25.1 -0.6 -2.3 2.9 -5.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 -11.7 13.3 8.9 -16.3 -14.7 -34.5Noble Energy 63.9 -1.2 -1.3 -3.4 -8.1 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 0.2 11.9 3.5 13.7 10.3 51.5Occidental 90.6 -1.3 -3.5 -3.2 -2.2 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 0.8 3.9 13.0 2.3 -11.3 12.1Penn Virginia 26.7 0.0 2.8 0.5 7.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 16.6 -16.8 13.6 -7.2 3.6 22.3Pioneer Natural 174.7 -0.5 2.9 -0.8 -1.4 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.3 26.9 17.8 16.6 2.6 77.2QEP Resources 30.0 -0.5 1.5 -0.9 -4.6 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 8.5 -1.6 -11.4 5.2 -5.6 8.0Quicksilver 3.0 0.0 2.7 -9.9 0.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 41.5 18.0 -35.4 -21.3 -31.7 -63.5Range Resources 82.6 -1.6 1.1 2.6 4.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 11.0 -1.6 -3.8 29.0 -10.8 73.8Resolute 8.4 -3.1 -3.3 -2.4 -3.1 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 6.5 3.9 -29.5 41.6 -8.7 -28.8Sandridge 6.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.8 9.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 21.3 -8.5 -17.0 -9.7 17.8SM Energy 84.2 -1.0 1.6 2.7 -0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 6.3 27.4 1.7 13.4 -3.8 34.8Southwestern Energy 39.3 -0.7 2.1 1.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 -0.9 -1.2 11.5 -5.5 -10.4Stone Energy 32.0 -2.6 -2.1 -1.2 0.4 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 3.2 43.4 3.0 6.0 -17.0 122.7Swift Energy 12.6 -1.9 -4.9 -6.9 0.4 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 11.9 -5.4 -16.4 -3.8 -27.0 -21.4Talisman 12.6 1.4 0.9 -1.4 -2.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -3.2 0.6 -7.3 8.2 -16.8 -11.8Ultra Petroleum 21.2 -0.4 4.5 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 4.0 3.7 0.3 10.9 -21.0 -50.6W&T Offshore 14.3 -1.4 -3.1 -5.0 -8.7 -10.6 -10.6 -10.6 -11.5 21.7 5.0 -11.4 -15.9 104.4Whiting PTL 59.6 -0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 0.2 27.3 -8.4 17.2 -7.9 22.4WPX Energy 18.7 -2.7 -1.7 -4.7 2.0 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 4.8 1.7 19.7 7.7 -13.2 NA
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
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Global Emerging Market Oils
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Valuations GEM Change in
Price Target Up/(Down) cons in
Company Rating 17-Jan Price side, % 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F EPS EPS last mnth
Integrated - RussiaBashneft E/W 65.7 71.0 8 5.9 5.0 4.5 8.6 6.8 6.1 12.0 7.7 10.5 9.5 5.7 7.8 21.6 21.1 21.1 9.61 9.30 1
Gazprom O/W 8.2 9.5 16 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 4.0 7.0 9.0 5.0 5.3 8.6 12.2 9.0 9.0 1.49 1.33 -2
Gazprom Neft O/W 22.0 25.0 14 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.5 (6.4) (0.0) 6.3 6.9 6.5 18.0 13.6 13.6 1.22 1.16 0
Lukoil E/W 58.7 70.0 19 3.0 2.4 1.8 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.2 13.6 5.4 6.1 7.1 12.8 11.1 11.1 13.72 13.92 -4
Novatek O/W 128.8 140.0 9 11.9 9.2 8.1 12.9 10.1 9.2 2.7 4.1 5.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 24.0 24.7 24.7 1.28 1.05 0
Rosneft U/W 7.3 7.3 (1) 6.0 5.3 5.5 6.7 5.6 6.1 (4.9) 2.6 1.3 4.9 4.5 4.1 11.1 7.4 7.4 1.31 1.24 0
Surgutneftegas U/W 8.2 9.6 18 (0.5) (0.6) (0.8) 5.7 5.7 5.7 16.2 8.9 12.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 16.2 15.2 15.2 0.14 0.15 5
Tatneft E/W 35.3 40.0 13 4.1 3.5 3.2 5.5 4.8 4.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 4.6 5.2 5.2 16.1 15.8 15.8 1.22 1.05 -2
Arithmetic average 12 4.5 3.9 3.6 6.3 5.5 5.3 6.5 5.3 8.2 5.1 4.9 5.6 16.5 14.7 14.7 0
Integrated - OtherPetrobras E/W 12 20 60 7.5 7.3 5.9 7.1 6.9 4.6 (23.6) (13.9) (3.9) 4.7 4.6 5.8 5.7 7.0 7.0 1.80 1.95 -3
Sasol E/W 537 480 (11) 9.4 8.8 7.8 11.5 11.1 9.8 3.6 4.1 5.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 24.0 23.2 23.2 48.58 49.18 0
Arithmetic average 25 8.5 8.1 6.8 9.3 9.0 7.2 (10.0) (4.9) 0.9 3.8 3.9 4.6 14.8 15.1 15.1 -1
ServicesC.A.T. Oil E/W 20.4 8.0 (61) 12.1 11.0 9.4 3.7 2.8 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 12.3 12.3 0.95 1.05 12
COSL O/W 23.7 22.8 (4) 2.9 2.7 2.7 17.6 17.2 16.8 6.9 7.5 7.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 8.4 7.4 7.4 1.38 1.94 2
Eurasia Drilling O/W 42.8 42.0 (2) 6.8 5.6 4.0 nm nm nm 8.3 10.1 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 18.0 18.0 4.08 3.43 1
Integra O/W 15.9 4.5 (72) 16.4 13.0 11.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.9 4.3 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 21.8 21.8 0.59 1.89 nm
Arithmetic average (34) 9.6 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.8 6.4 4.6 5.5 6.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 13.3 14.9 14.9 5
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
FCF yield, %Barclays
2014Cons 2014
RoACE, %EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
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Valuations GEM
EV:EBIDA, x P/E, x Dividend yield, %
-202468
10
B
A
S
H
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