globalization,risk&opportunity 2017
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Globalization,Risk & Opportunity in Development,2017
Ghadeer Odeh, MBA
• Global Trends• Global Development Risks• Development Obstacles • Innovation in Risk Mitigation Plan
Trends
• Globalization is the most vital factor for international exchange through trade activity & ideas that influenced wealth disribution,equality means& the spread of market capitalism in the past half century.
• https://youtu.be/khjY5LWF3tg
Trends
Trends
• American elections will slow down the US international supply chain conribution which is estimated 24% of global GDP.&slump down immigration rates. Stocks market will face uncertainty due to new regulations that affect companies & supply chain constraints.
.
Trends
Trends:U.S Policy Impact on Globalization
American election will slow down the US international supply chain conribution which is
estimated 24% of global GDPTariffs imposed on imports will Boost US
manufacturing industries to adjust trade balances ,& will significantly disrupt Latin America &Asia trade
relations
US constraints on reforms of NAFTA ,KORUS&TPP can be seen as positive development related to improving
the trade balance deficit &economic prosperity.
Negative impact in the behavioural economics of countries who have trade accords with the U.S
including China,mexico,EU,& Asia Pacific.
The rise of the middle powers & set new alternate trade deals in China & the TPP to offset global supply
gaps.
Slump down sales of MNCs up to 11.5% & relocation affected by dollar appreciation, slowdown in China,&
oil price collapse.
The fourth technology revolution that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, &biological
spheres. will boost global income level,reduce cost of supply chain&violence
China to serve alternate markets to expand growth & seek reconciliation to maintain its 18% annual
exports to US market
TrendsU.S Policy Impact on Globalization
Global Risks 2017
• Deglobalization of the advanced economies,Economic disparity &global governance failure.
• The rise of geopolitical risks encompassing involuntary migration ,culture shocks& terror attacks.
• climate change &water crises.
• Unprecedented risks from technology revolution including industry decline ,job market deterioration& identity security.
Global Risks
Individual
Lack of knowledge
Consumption behavior biases
Failure to Cope, behavioral biases
Financial constraints
Community
Failure adaption water crises climate change
gap between returns to capital and returns to labor.
Social instabilityUnemployment
Missing market moral hazards
Policy
Uncertainty in economic policy
Lack of Gov collective e actions
Lack of resources, protection, insurance
Lack of international cooperation
Obstacles
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Economy• As a result of Political views shift from globalism to nationalism in advanced
economies, middle power countries will rise &contribute to international GDP & supply chain to adjust trade balance.
• Maintain healthy inflation rates to avoid asset deterioration &prolonged recession impact.
• China have the chance to boost its economy by increasing exports to new markets, Influenced by weak home currency to stimulates exports for local products, simultaneously increase jobs ,reduce unemployment rate, high inflation , & reduce the financing costs that all will lead to economic growth.
• Create countercyclical fiscal policies to promote sustainability &benefit from industrial countries experience in cycling 80% of Gov spending.
• Establish monetary policy in developing countries to control inflation rates away from political variations. Boost bond investment by central banks &promote flexible currency peg policy.
• Establish implicit exchange rate boundaries to maintain boundaries below or above benchmark.
• Create macroeconomic buffers to lessen oil price shocks& embark on oil manufacturing industries & supply unserved markets.
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Innovation in Country Risk Management
• Dani Rodrik, Harvard economist, proposed a theory "the globalization trilemma" in which among “democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration, only two could be simultaneously compatible. Recent political events in Europe and the U.S. suggest democracy and national sovereignty would be the priorities moving forwards”.
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Innovation in Country Risk Management
• Migration
• Improve resilience as a way to embrace opportunities &calculated risks to avoid stagnation &impoverishment among migrants.
• Increase polarization as the third most important trend for the next 10 years.• Provide collective actions to the UN efforts to provide humanitarian relief and
protect civilians in Syria.• Harness Cooperation between Gov&private sector to ensure business
continuity.• Establish innovative financing Ad Hoc government fund to compensate losses. • Establish Insurance policies linked to securities that aim to transfer risks.
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Innovation in Country Risk Management
• Climate change• Highlight government contributions toward UN Paris vital agenda to mitigate
climate change adverse effects. • Provide empirical evidence about global transition to a low-carbon economy &
clean energy.• Build cost-effective risk mitigation plan through favorable taxes, projects or
insurance programs to manage financial risks.• Create collaborative partnerships between Gov&private sector to mitigate risks
reshape financial assistance to enhance effectiveness of prevention protetion,response,recovery, & prioritize investment in mitigation ,risk transfer &prioritization.
• Highlight social &economic system contributions to Create proactive risk management plan to predict natural disasters & prevent severe damages.
• Governments urged to Build risk management plan based on knowledge,insurace,coping & protection by considering institutional capacity of the country & priorities.
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Innovation in Country Risk Management
• Technology• Technology will harness sharing economy consequently,, foster prosperity,
equality & peace however, there is urgent need to protect cloud platforms.• The Fourth Industrial Revolution will also profoundly impact the nature of
national and international security& nature of conflict. • Technology has always created jobs &destroyed them, but there is evidence
that the technological job creation is sputtering. However,47% of US jobs were at high risk.
• Technology is expected shift income distribution from labor to capital through innovative trade platforms.
• Improve government policy transparency ,efficiency through public engagement & decentralization of power.
Innovation in Country Risk Management
Most competitive countries inhazards policy framework
USANational response frame work.
National preparedness goal
Singapore Whole Gov integrated risk management
Netherlands National safety security strategy
JapanBasic disaster management
system
Canada Emergency management framework
UK Civil contingencies act
The Most Competitive Countries in Hazard Policy Framework
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