gmt pathways eionet workshop berne september 2015 mapping europe’s future – understanding the...
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1
GMT Pathways EIONET Workshop Berne September 2015
Mapping Europe’s Future – understanding the impacts of GMTs at the national level.
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How to read these impact pathways
• The ‘pathways’ provide a simple, visual overview of the Global Megatrends described in EEA SOER 2015• They do so by creating a structured picture of the key drivers, trends
and implications referred to in the SOER 2015 narrative• The pathways are not an accurate representation of the real world,
but an illustration of the megatrends described by the EEA• These are intended as ‘storylines’ and do not attempt to illustrate
direct, causal linkages between factors• The aim is to make the megatrends accessible and provide a basis for
discussion of possible national scale implications and priorities
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How to read these impact pathways
The shading of the boxes represents the following logic, although a degree of judgement was needed given the way they are written:
• Blue = key drivers (with reference to other GMTs if these are listed as drivers)• Light brown/beige = driving trends / higher-level trends• Dark brown = ‘collecting’ trends – trends that are the outcomes of the light-brown ones• Yellow = impact trends – a stepping point to the impacts• Red = impacts / implications (with reference to other GMTs if these manifest as impacts)• Purple = wild-cards – basically a shock / total change that may happen due to the GMT,
or a major uncertainty, in the case of GMT8 (ecosystems) this relates to crossing planetary boundaries
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Skills for labour market
Economic development
Health care
Migration from developing
countries to EU
Average age
Changes in population dynamics
Distribution of populations
(urban/rural)
Increased ethnic/cultural
diversity
Population growth
Population ageing
Replacement fertility rate
Economic productivity
Increased emissions and
waste (GMT 10)
Challenges for democratic
process
Change in ratio of working age population to
elderly dependents
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT1: Diverging global population trends
Governance
Fertility/mortality rates
EducationLife expectancy
Climate change
Childhood mortality
Increased environmental
pressures (GMT 8)
Shifts in economic power (GMT 6)
Living standards
Enhanced competition for non-renewable
resources (GMT 7)
Employment opportunities
Increased threats to social
security
Pressure on health and
welfare systems
Increase in public debt
Expanded workforce size
Fiscal pressures
5
Changes in agriculture sector
Industrialisation
Population growth (GMT 1)
Use of pesticides and fertilisers
Selective breeding
Public sector urban
investment bias
Mechanisation of agriculture
Urban planning and policies
Technological advancement
Environmental pressures
(GMT8 and 10)
Urbanisation
Enhanced food production
Surplus labour in agriculture
Increased economic growth/ productivity
(GMT 6)
Increased pool of labour
Shift to industrialised/ service based
economies
Agglomeration of economies
Greater urban density
(congestion)
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT2: Towards a more urban world
Rural economic decline
Higher cost of living/property
Decentralised energy production
Resource prices (GMT 7)
Pressure on urban
infrastructure
Expansion of Megacities
Degradation of living
standards
Enhanced innovation
Increased inequality: income/education/health
(rural/urban)Uncertain changes in
economic opportunities / living standards
Increased ecological footprint
GHG emissions Uncertain changes in resource efficiency
Exposure to pollution
Slums
Risk of infectious diseases /
pandemics (GMT3)
6
Changes in agriculture sector
Industrialisation
Population growth (GMT 1)
Use of pesticides and fertilisers
Selective breeding
Public sector urban
investment bias
Mechanisation of agriculture
Urban planning and policies
Technological advancement
Environmental pressures
(GMT8 and 10)
Urbanisation (quantitative)
Enhanced food production
Surplus labour in agriculture
Increased economic growth/ productivity
Increased pool of labour
Shift to industrialised/ service based
economies
Greater urban density (congestion)
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT2: Towards a more urban world
Rural economic decline
Higher cost of living/property
Decentralised energy production
Resource prices (GMT 7)
Pressure on urban
infrastructure
Expansion of Megacities
Degradation of living standards
Enhanced innovation
Increased ecological footprint
GHG emissions
Exposure to pollution
Slums
Risk of infectious diseases / pandemics (GMT3)
Climate change
Economic development
Urbanisation (qualitative)
Technological innovation
(GMT 4)
Resource scarcity (GMT7)
Environmental awareness
Consumption patterns
Critical mass of knowledge and skills for green
leapfrog
Renewal / renaissance of cities
Development of public transport, new functions of old buildings and public
areas, energetical development of infrastructures etc.
Low ecological footprint cities
Balcony-, guerilla-, schoolyard-, vertical-, community-, roof-gardening are more
and more popular
Community planning, complex solutions,
innovative implementations
Proposed amendment by Miklós Martin, HU September 2015
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Economic growth
Changes to agriculture systems
Environmental Pollution (GMT10)
Global trade and travel
Human health
Increased obesity
Prevalence of communicable
diseases
Increased risk of pandemics
Governance systems and structures
Health care costs
Increased health
inequalities
Social cohesion and wellbeing Mortality rates
Challenge to sustainable
development
Health /social / environmental
policies
Social unrest
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT3: Changing disease burdens and risks of
pandemics
vUrbanisation
(GMT2) Improved health services
Intensive livestock
Life expectancy inequalities
Drinking water quality / quantity
Diet and nutrition Improved living
standards
Global chemical production
Exposure to chemicals
Exposure to pesticides
…Europe faces uncertain but increased exposure to possible future pandemics
Climate change (GMT 9)
Extreme weather events
Technological innovation (GMT 4)
Non-communicable diseases
Prevalence of mental
disordersEconomic
productivity
Resistance to antibiotics
Education
Availability of medicines
Multiple burden of disease
Financial losses
Pressure on health care systems
Social change and lifestyle shifts
Outdoor air pollution
Medical technologies
Shifts in disease vectors Changing disease
vectors effecting EU
Decline in effectiveness of
antibiotics
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…a post-human future?…
Research funding and
policy support
Economic growth (GMT5)
Urbanisation (GMT2)
Research & development
Market expansion
New markets
Education
Competition for resources (GMT7)
Innovation and new technologies
Increase in educated workforce
Number of research centres
Scientific collaborations
Nanomaterials in consumer products
Efficiency of resource extraction
and use
Development of nanotechnology
Increased efficiency in agriculture
Biotechnology
Developments in ICT
Use of new tech in healthcare
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT4: Accelerating technological change
Ecosystem degradation
(GMT8)
Climate change (GMT 9)
Environmental pollution (GMT 10)
Reduced costs of resource extraction
Increased data storage capacities
Evolution of 3D printing
Expansion of robotics industry
Potential transformation of manufacturing
industries
New methods for biofuel production
Increased volume of ICT equipment
waste
Reduced labour demand /
unemployment New social
risks
Need for new policy /
governance
…the risks and impacts of emerging technologies on
the environment and society are difficult to
predict…
Globalisation of research
Increased competition for
critical raw materials Potential transformation
of energy systems (low carbon)
Technology
9
Technological innovation
(GMT4)
Financial crisis
Resource scarcity (GMT7)
Geopolitical stability
Productivity
Socio-political developments
Deceleration
Food and energy price
Economic growth
Reduced efficiency
Little innovation
Global GDP
GDP development in
EU countries
Recession
Demand for resources (GMT7) Most significant
decline in advanced economies
Employment levels
Changes innational policies
Living standards
Divergence of poverty gap
Inequality of income
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT5: Continued economic growth?
Rebalancing of economic
power
Emissions of pollutants (GMT10)
Revenue for and pressure on
public services
Workforce education and
skills
Structure of economies: trade
openness, tax, R&D spending etc.
Structural reforms
Changing consumption
patterns
Relationship with environmental
pressure
Eco-economic decoupling
Uncertainty of revenue for
health, education, policing,
transport etc
10
Education
Population trends (GMT1)
Technological innovation
Market integration
Resource scarcity
Economic structure
Wage costs
Trade agreementsTrade and market
liberalisation
Workforce skills
Shifting of economic power
Growth in export volumes
Expanding middle class
Trade openness
Income growth
Increase in productivity
Outsourcing of employment
Consumption patterns
New Economic Unions
Environmental pressures
EU’s Competitiveness
(both +/-)
Free trade areas
Resilient world economy, but systemic risks
Diversified trade relationships
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT6: An increasingly multipolar world
Economic policies
Socio-political developments
Ethnic conflicts
Demographic changes (migration/ageing)
(GMT1 and 2)
Democratic processes
Geopolitical stability
Economic integration
Foreign Direct Investment
Diffusion of technologies / skills /
institutions / expertise
Cheap imports for EU?
More resource efficient EU economy: service
based
EU as a tourist destination
Reduced EU share in global manufacturing
and agriculture markets
New export markets for EU
products
11
Population growth (GMT1)
Economic growth (GMT5)
Technological innovation
(GMT4)
Emerging economies
(GMT5)
Expanding middle class
Alternative energy sources
Living standards
Resource demand
Resource extraction
Increased access to fossil fuels
Commodity price (indefinite
projections)
Consumption patterns
(decoupling)
Pressure on economic outputs
Growing competition
Reduced security of
supply for EU
Erosion of EU’s value chain
Environmental risks
Shale gas and oil production
Reduced purchasing power of EU businesses and consumers
Air /water pollution (GMT10)
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT7: Intensified global competition for resources
Socio-political developments
…estimating the future demand for specific
resources is subject to significant uncertainties…
Efficiency
Price incentives
Environmental agreements
Global energy market
Need to locate new reserves /
resources
Opportunities for EU’s
specialisation in efficiency
Climate change precursors
Increased waste generation
Monopolistic production of
critical raw materials
12
Economic Growth (GMT5)
Population Growth (GMT1)
Consumption patterns
Climate Change (GMT9)
Demand for food
Exploitation of fish stocks
Agricultural intensification
Demand for fish farms
Land-grabbing / competition
Demand for bio-energy
Meat consumption
Loss/damage to global ecosystem
services
Deforestation
Run-off / pollution
Loss of natural areas
Global land use change
Freshwater scarcity Reduced ability
to draw on global natural
resources
Unequal distribution of
impacts
Conflict and instability
Migration to EU
Increased price of food /
commodities
Loss of natural CC adaptation
Loss of natural CC mitigation
Greater need for EU
response / costs
Direct pressure on EU
ecosystems
… ecosystem tipping points passed –
unpredictable but widespread impacts
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT8: Growing pressure on ecosystems
13
Deforestation
Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste management
Anthropogenic GHG emissions
Changes in the global climate
system
El Nino effect
Increased frequency of
droughts/floods
Mean surface temperature
Ice and snow cover
Warming of oceans
Sea level rise
Extreme weather events
Increase in permafrost
temperatureInfrastructure
damageIncrease in CH4
release
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT9: Increasingly severe consequences of climate
change
Population growth (GMT2)
Variations in precipitation
Ocean circulation (weakened Gulf
stream)
Changes in ecosystems (GMT8)
Decline in terrestrial and marine species (biodiversity)
Increased alien species in EU
Increase in forest fires
Reduced groundwater
resources
Disruption of economic systems
Food production /
security
Displacement of people National
security
Impacts on human health
(GMT3)
Economic activity
Energy production / consumption
14
Energy production / consumption
Population Growth (GMT1)
Automobile and chemicals
industries
Urbanisation (GMT2)
Fossil fuel combustion
Chemical production
Chemical release into
environment
Agricultural intensification
Consumption patterns
Increase in the use of fertilisers
Global environmental pollution load
Atmospheric precursors
Greenhouse gas emissions
Introduction of new substances
Direct pressure on EU’s
biodiversity (vegetation)
Human health
Acidification of terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems
Persistent bio accumulative and
toxic substance pollution
Increasingly complex chemical
pollution
Forest growth/crop yields (plant productivity)
Soil pollution
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT10: Increasing environmental pollution
Particulate matter
Increased acidification of terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems
Increased eutrophication
Alteration of nutrient cycles
Biofuel production
Increased cost of wastewater treatment system maintenance
Increased nutrient discharge
Changes in species
composition Loss in fish
stocks/other aquatic life
Transboundary air pollution
15
Corporate lobby
Globalisation (GMT5)
Domestic political interests
Information and communication
technologies (GMT4)
Market failures
Transboundary water/air pollution
Climate change mitigation
Promotion of successful/efficient
policymaking
Trust building
Short-term policy making
Management of common property
resources
Change in global governance
Resourcing of intergovernmental
organisations
Increased influence of
NGOs
Implementation of environmental
standards
Increase in international agreements
Complexity of negotiations and lack of consensus
Reduced transparency
Reduced accountability
Increasing role for cities in
environmental governance
Increased amount of legislation/standards
Change of roles for NGO’s
Inclusiveness
Rise of business and civil society in governance
Lack of coordination
Drivers Trends Impacts
GMT11: Diversifying approaches to governance
Data collection/storage
/sharing Environmental awareness
Long terms environmental
targets
Supranational blocs (EU)
Growth of certification and
auditing networksOver-
representation of certain interest
groups
Risks to democratic
process (due to non-state actors)
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