gross domestic product - ekonomi.isbank.com.tr · stock change net exports investment consumption...
Post on 23-Jul-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1
2
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Gross Domestic Product 6
77
77
7
64
7
77
2 83
2
87
1 9
50
93
5
86
2
86
3
85
1
78
9
75
4
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
GDP (billion USD)
9,6
56
10
,93
1
8,9
80
10
,56
0
11
,20
5
11
,58
8
12
,48
0
12
,11
2
11
,01
9
10
,88
3
10
,60
2
9,6
32
9,1
27
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Per capita GDP (USD)
3
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Economic Growth 0
.9
-4.7
8.5
11
.1
4.8
8.5
5.2
6.1
3.2
7.5
2.8
0.9
4.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Q1-20
Annual Real GDP Growth (%)
-12
-7
-2
3
8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Contributions to Growth (2009=100 chain linked volume index % points)
Stock Change Net ExportsInvestment ConsumptionGDP
4
Leading Indicators
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20
Confidence Indices
Real sector confidence index
Economic confidence index
Consumer confidence index
5 (*) As of April-May Source: Datastream, Turkstat
-25.5*
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
Q12017
Q12018
Q12019
Q12020
Calendar Adjusted Industrial Production
(yoy, % change)
8.9 9.2
12.0 11.9
10.0
8.5 8.8 9.1
10.3 10.2
12.0
9.9
12.8 13.1
13.8
45 44 45 47 47 47 49 49 51 52 52 53 53 52
48
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Labor Market Indicators* (%)
Unemployment
Labor Participation Rate
(*) Seasonally adjusted figures. Latest figure as of April 2020. Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Labor Market
6
20 20 20 21 23 23
24 25 26 27 27 29 28 28
26
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Employment* (million persons)
Source: Turkstat, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Fiscal Discipline
32.7 31.4
28.8 27.6 28.3 28.3
30.4 33.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
General Government Debt Stock (% GDP)
Maastricht criterion: 60%
7
1.9
1.0 1.1
1.0 1.1
1.5
2.0
2.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Budget Deficit (% GDP)
Maastricht criterion: 3%
Exports
8
16
1
16
7
15
1
14
9 16
4 17
7
18
1
16
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Exports (billion USD)
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.4
9.8
13.9
Non knitted and crocheted goods
Articles of iron and steel
Plastic and articles
Precious stones
Mineral fuels and oils
Knitted and crocheted goods
Iron and steel
Electrical machinery andequipment
Boilers and machineries
Motor vehicles
Exports* (% of total)
(*) As of May 2020 12-month cumulative.
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
(*) As of May 2020 12-month cumulative
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Exports
2007 % of
total
1. Germany
2. UK
3. Italy
4. France
5. Russia
6. Spain
7. US
8. Romania
9. UAE
10. Netherlands
11.2
8.0
7.0
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.9
3.4
3.0
2.8
The share of first 10 53.6
2020* % of
total
1. Germany
2. UK
3. Iraq
4. US
5. Italy
6. France
7. Spain
8. Netherlands
9. Israel
10. Russia
9.2
6.2
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.2
4.1
3.4
2.6
2.5
The share of first 10 48.4
Top 10 Export Markets
48.3
40.3
13.2
17.9
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020*
Exports (% of total)
EU
Near and Middle East
9
Imports 2
61
25
1
21
4
20
2
23
9
23
1
21
0
20
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Imports (billion USD)
2.2
2.4
2.8
5.1
5.6
7.1
7.2
7.8
10.8
17.5
Optical products
Pharmaceuticalproducts
Organic chemicals
Motor vehicles
Plastic and articles
Iron and steel
Electrical machineryand equipment
Precious Stones
Boilers and machineries
Mineral fuels and oils
Imports* (% of total)
10 (*) As of May 2020 12-month cumulative
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Imports
2007 % of total
1. Russia
2. Germany
3. China
4. Italy
5. US
6. France
7. Iran
8. UK
9. Switzerland
10. Ukraine
13.8
10.3
7.8
5.7
4.8
4.6
3.9
3.2
3.1
2.7
The share of first 10 59.9
2020* % of
total
1. Russia
2. China
3. Germany
4. US
5. Italy
6. France
7. South Korea
8. India
9. UK
10. Iraq
10.4
9.7
9.3
6.0
4.3
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.3
The share of first 10 53.5
Top 10 Import Markets
15.9
72.7
11.0
2007
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Consumption Goods
13.1
76.3
10.3
2020*
Composition of Imports (%)
11 (*) As of May 2020 12-month cumulative
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
(*) As of May 2020 12-month cumulative
Source: CBRT, Ministry of Culture and Tourism
Tourism
17 19
23 23 23
25 25
28 30
27
19
22
25
30
25*
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Tourism Revenues (USD bn)
12
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.1
4.2
5.7
Azerbaijan
Netherlands
Iraq
Ukraine
Iran
Georgia
UK
Bulgaria
Germany
Russia
Number of Tourists (million persons)
2020*
2019
2018
Number of Tourists
2017: 32.4 mn
2018: 39.5 mn
2019: 45.1 mn
2020*: 36.6 mn
Source: Turkstat, New Economic Program (2020-2022)
Savings & Investments
1.7
5.7
8.8
5.5 6.6
4.6 3.6 3.8
5.6
3.4
-0.2
1.1 0.7
-0.1
21.4 21.3 22.5 22.8 23.2
24.4 24.8 24.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.0
28.5 30.6
23.0
27.0
31.3
28.3 29.8 29.0 28.3 28.3
31.0 29.6
26.8 28.1
29.2 30.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Investments and Savings (% of GDP)
Saving Gap
Savings
Investments
New Economic Program
Forecasts
13
(*) Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury
(**) Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credits and deposits in banks.
Source: CBRT, Turkstat
Current Account Balance
-5.7 -5.5 -5.1
-1.8
-5.8
-8.9
-5.5 -5.9
-4.2
-3.2 -3.1
-4.8
-2.6
1.1
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Financing of CAD (12-month cumulative, billion USD)
Foreign Direct and Long Term Investments*
Portfolio and Short Term Investments**
Current Account Deficit
14
Source: CBRT
Capital Flows
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
May 17 Nov 17 May 18 Nov 18 May 19 Nov 19 May 20
Portfolio Inflows (12-month cumulative, billion USD)
Debt Securities
Equity Securities
15
0
4
8
12
16
20
May 17 Nov 17 May 18 Nov 18 May 19 Nov 19 May 20B
inle
r
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (12- month cumulative, billion USD)
(*) Latest figure as of June 2020
Source: CBRT, Datastream
Monetary Policy
12,62
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual CPI Inflation* (%)
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20
Interest Rates (%)
Interest Rate Corridor
One Week Repo Rate
Late Liquidity Window
CBRT Weighted Average Cost of Funding
16
(*) Latest figure as of July 16
Source: Datastream
Financial Markets
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20
USD vs Local Currencies (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20
Equity Indices (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
no
min
al d
ep
recia
tio
n in
lo
ca
l cu
rre
ncy
17
(*) Latest figure as of July 16 Source: Datastream
Financial Markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20
5Y CDS Spreads (bps)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20
5Y Government Bond Yields (%)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
19
(*) Excluding the banks under the administration of the SDIF
Source: BRSA
Basic Indicators
8 10
15
28
25
13
2004 May 2020
Number of Banks*
Public
Foreign
Domestic Private
51 48
58
31
3
26
38 43
2004 May 2020
Share in Total Assets (%)
Public
Foreign
Domestic Private
20
Source: BRSA
Basic Indicators
12
7,3
91
13
8,1
69
15
0,4
62
16
7,2
12
18
2,1
00
18
3,6
14
19
0,5
86
19
4,6
17
20
0,7
45
21
3,4
31
21
6,0
63
21
6,7
22
21
0,1
12
20
7,5
32
20
6,9
74
20
3,8
39
20
3,0
24
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 May2020
Number of Domestic Staff
21
6,1
77
6,5
21
7,2
56
8,0
71
9,2
50
9,5
26
10
,00
0
10
,44
0
10
,98
1
11
,90
3
12
,12
5
12
,18
5
11
,66
4
11
,50
8
11
,49
3
11
,30
0
11
,25
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 May2020
Number of Domestic Branches
Source: BRSA, Turkstat
Basic Indicators
23 17 17
12 13 0 16
20
13 15 13 14 12 19 20
15
50
57
40
30 29
7
34 30
16
32
19 20 17 21
14 11
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nominal GDP Growth (%)
Loan Growth (%)
228
776
2004 May 2020
Assets (bn USD)
X3.4
74
465
2004 May 2020
Loans (bn USD)
X6.3
143
437
2004 May 2020
Deposits (bn USD)
X3.1
34
80
2004 May 2020
Equity (bn USD)
X2.3
22
Source: BRSA
Balance Sheet Items
23
32
60
40
17
15 13
12 10
2004 May 2020
Asset Composition (%)
Other Assets
Cash+Banks
Securities
Loans
62 56
11
11
0 4
15 10
11 18
2004 May 2020
Liability Composition (%)
Other Liabilities
Shareholder's Equity
Securities Issued
Banks
Deposits
Latest figure as of July 10, 2020
Source: BRSA
Deposits
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Deposit Volume (annual % change)
TL Deposits
FX Deposits in USD Terms
Total Deposits (exchange rate adjusted)
49.9
40
45
50
55
60
65
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Share of TL Deposits in Total (%)
24
Latest figure as of July 10, 2020
Source: BRSA
Loans
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Loan Volume (annual % change)
TL Loans
FX Loans in USD Terms
Total Loans (exchange rate adjusted)
65.2
55
59
63
67
71
75
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Share of TL Loans in Total (%)
25
Source: BRSA, EBA
Non-Performing Loans 6
.0
4.7
3.7
3.5
3.7
5.3
3.7
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.9
5.4
4.5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 May
2020
Non-performing Loan Ratio (%)
0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.4
6.5 6.7 7.2
19.4 35.2
SwedenLuxembourg
NorwayGermany
UKFinland
DenmarkLatvia
NetherlandsBelgiumAustriaFrance
EU AverageMaltaSpain
IrelandSloveniaRomaniaHungary
PolandTurkey
PortugalItaly
BulgariaS. Cyprus
Greece
NPL Ratio (%, 2019)
26
(*) As of May
Source: BRSA
Loans by Sectors
0.2
0.3
4.6
7.0
5.3
2.4
6.0
8.8
5.7
4.0
1.8
2.2
3.6
3.6
5.8
6.1
7.1
8.4
13.1
21.8
Defense and Public Administration
Financial Intermediation
Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry
Tourism
Real Estate Brokerage, Renting and Business Act.
Transportation, Storage and Communication
Electricity, Gas and Water Resources
Construction
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Manufacturing industry
Loans by Main Industry Groups*
Share (%)
NPL (%)
27
Source: CBRT
Net FX Position of NFCs
10.4 10.1 -3.6 -0.7 -5.6 -0.1 5.8 2.2 7.7 1.4
4.8 9.0
-77 -99
-114 -136
-167 -180 -195 -207
-220 -208 -186 -179 -66
-88
-118
-136
-173 -180
-189 -204
-212 -207
-181
-170
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 April 2020
Net FX Position of the Non-Financial Sector (bn USD)
Long Term Net FX Position
Short Term Net FX Position
Net FX Position
28
Source: CBRT
FX Assets & Liabilities of NFCs
51 82 102 122 155 172 175 178 184 171 153 148 81
76 77
81 82 81 85 93 102 104
100 98
15 18
20 22
30 30 30 33 42 45
51 46
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 April 2020
FX Liabilities of NFCs (bn USD)
Import Payables
External Loans
Domestic Loans
57 62 55 61 64 67 69 68 78 75 84 88 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 13
16 20 20 14
13 13 16 16 17 22 18 19 21 17
19 19
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 April 2020
FX Assets of NFCs (bn USD)
Securities
Direct InvestmentAbroadExport Receivables
Deposits
29
(*) External debt maturing within 1 year or less regardless of the original maturity.
Source: CBRT
Short Term External Debt Stock
111
198 187
332
108 101
76 74 73
117 97
123 142 140
106
138
89 76
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 May2020
12-month Long-Term Debt Roll Over Ratio
(%)
Banking Sector Non-banking Sector
May 2020 (*)
(bn USD) Share (%)
Central Bank 19.4 11.4
General Government 6.3 3.7
Banks 76.4 45.1
Credits 28.7 16.9
FX Deposits 21.0 12.4
Bank Accounts 11.2 6.6
Branches and Affiliates Abroad 3.9 2.3
TRY Deposits 15.4 9.1
Branches and Affiliates Abroad 7.6 4.5
Other Sectors 67.5 39.8
Trade Credits 46.8 27.6
Other Credits 20.7 12.2
Public 1.2 0.7
Private 19.4 11.4
Total 169.5 100.0
30
(*) Latest figure as of July 10, 2020
Source: BRSA
Non-Deposit Sources
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net FX Position* (billion USD)
Net On Balance Off Balance
20.5
14.6
12.1
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
External Borrowings of the Banks (outstanding amount, billion USD)
Eurobonds Syndication Loans Securitization Loans
Double Investment
Grade
(May 2013-Sep.2016)
31
(*) As of May 2020.
Source: BRSA, EBA
Capital Adequacy Ratio
23.7
21.9
18.9 18.0
20.6
19.0
16.6
17.9
15.3
16.3 15.6
15.6
16.9
17.3 18.4
19.4*
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Legal Limit of 8%
Target Rate of 12%
15.6
15.8 16.4
17.3 17.4 17.4 17.7
18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5
19.0 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.9 19.9
20.5 21.6 21.7 21.7
23.0
SpainHungaryPortugalGreece
ItalySlovakia
PolandGermany
AustriaTurkeyFrance
S. CyprusBelgium
EU AverageSloveniaBulgaria
LatviaCzech Rep.
CroatiaMalta
IrelandNetherlands
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%, 2019)
32
Source: The Bank Association of Turkey
Alternative Banking Channels
7,227
12,256
2011 Q1 2020 Q1
Internet Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)
X1.7
230
52,481
2011 Q1 2020 Q1
Mobile Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)
X228
33
Profitability
(*) Net interest income / average total assets
Source: BRSA
34
5.4%
4.3%
3.5%
4.1%
3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
3.6% 3.8%
3.9% 3.8%
4.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
NIM*
36%
41%
44%
41% 43%
45% 46%
40% 38%
34% 36%
31%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
Cost / Income Ratio
Profitability
Source: BRSA 35
2.5%
1.7% 1.8%
1.6%
1.3% 1.2%
1.5% 1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
ROAA
20.1%
15.5% 15.7%
14.2%
12.3% 11.3%
14.3%
15.9% 14.8%
11.5%
14.2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
ROAE
Stock Exchange Performance
Latest figure as of July 16
Source: Datastream
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bin
ler
Stock Exchange Performance (thousands)
BIST-100 Index Banking Sector Index (right axis)
36
Banking Sector Comparison
Source: BRSA, Turkstat, ECB, Eurostat
63
66
74
83
87
87
87
96
98
10
1
10
5
10
5
10
4
10
5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Banking Sector’s Assets in Turkey (% GDP)
272
163
38
159
105
62
5
60
Assets/GDP
Loans/GDP
Housing Loans/GDP
Deposits/GDP
Banking Sector’s Comparison with Euro Area
(%, 2019)
EA-19
Turkey
37
Our reports are available on our website https://research.isbank.com.tr
LEGAL NOTICE
This report has been prepared by Türkiye İş Bankası A.Ş. economists and analysts by using the information from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, solely for information
purposes; and they are not intended to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or the provision of an offer to provide investment
services. The views, opinions and analyses expressed do not represent the official standing of Türkiye İş Bankası A.Ş. and are personal views and opinions of the analysts and
economists who prepare the report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. All
information contained in this report is subject to change without notice, Türkiye İş Bankası A,Ş, accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of
this report or its contents.
This report is copyright-protected. Reproducing, publishing and/or distributing this report in whole or in part is therefore prohibited. All rights reserved.
top related