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John Leahy Chief Operating Officer, Customers
Growing Horizons Global Market Forecast 2017 - 2036
Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017
2
World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036
RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5
Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120
New passenger aircraft deliveries 34,166
Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410
New freighter aircraft deliveries 733
Total New Aircraft Deliveries 34,899
vs. GMF16
+3.1%
+6.4%
+1,741
% change 2016-2036
135%
112%
50%
+88
+14.2%
+1,829
20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017
3
34,899 new aircraft
24,807 single-aisle aircraft
8,686 twin-aisle aircraft
1,406 very large aircraft
5.3 $US trillion
+1,277 vs GMF 2016
+626
-74
+1,829
Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017
4
Number of aircraft
24,810
8,690
1,410 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
% units 71% 25% 4%
% value 46% 44% 10%
Fleet in service evolution
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017
5
Number of aircraft*
20,500
7,630
12,870
22,030
34,900
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries
20-year new deliveries
Replacement
Growth
Stay
2016 was a good year
20
42
64
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
<0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10%
Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
6
Number of countries
% - ASK growth 2015-2016
142 countries 81% of world population
88% of world GDP
World load factors remain at record levels
Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
7
World passenger load factor - %
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
80%
69%
Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017
8
Yearly RPK growth 2016 - 2036
Emerging/Developing China India Middle East Rest of Asia Africa CIS Latin America Central Europe
+5.8 %
Advanced Western Europe Israel North America Japan Singapore South Korea Australia/New Zealand
+3.2 % 1 billion people in 2016
6.4 billion people in 2016
781 828 850 865 859 73 144 216 322 456 501
981
1,822
2,695
3,624
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1996e** 2006 2016 2026 2036
Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years
Rounded total to nearest 50 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices ** Estimate for 1996 split by region Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
9
People in Middle Class* (million)
Emerging countries
Developing countries
Advanced countries
8,900
56%
World Population (M.)
% of world population
8,200
47%
7,430
39%
6,600
30%
5,820
23%
Forecast
4,950
3,900
2,900
1,950 1,350
Almost 50% of world’s private consumption to come from emerging markets
Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 10
World private consumption (trillion 2010 $US)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Forecast
Advanced countries 54% 66%
77%
Emerging/Developing countries
34%
23%
46%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
~60% of international tourists to be transported by air in 2036
Source: UNWTO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 11
International tourist arrivals (million)
>1.2bn tourists
Forecast
48% Share of tourists travelling by air
51% 54% 57%
>2.4bn tourists
59% 61% 62%
Tourism by Air
Tourism by surface (Road , Water, Rail)
Low Cost Carrier market penetration has increased significantly since 2006
Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF
12
North America Europe-CIS
Asia-Pacific Middle East
Africa Latin America 2006 2016
2006 2016
2006 2016 2006 2016
2006 2016
2006 2016
Low Cost Carrier seats offered on domestic and intra-regional flights (million)
38m
>39m
25m
9m
4m
0.6m
x1.2 x2.6
x4.8
x3.9
x16.4
x5.7
~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016…
Source: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017
13
2016 trips per capita
2016 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Pow er Parity)
Africa
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
India, 2016 0.1 trips per capita India, 2016 0.1 trips per capita
China, 2016 0.4 trips per capita
United States, 2016 1.8 trips per capita
Bubble size proportional to population
… in 2036, it will be 83%
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017
14
Africa
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2036 trips per capita
2036 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Pow er Parity)
India, 2036 0.4 trips per capita
China, 2036 1.3 trips per capita
United States, 2036 2.5 trips per capita
Bubble size proportional to population
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF
15
World annual traffic (trillion RPKs) Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis
Asian Crisis
WTC Attack SARS
Financial Crisis
x2 since 9/11
+60% growth over the last 10 years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Traffic doubles every 15 years
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
16
World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
x2
x2
x2
Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a. ICAO total traffic
Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
17
Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
20-year CAGR
Share of 2036 RPKs
5.6% 38%
3.4% 21%
2.6% 16%
6.1% 13%
4.5% 5%
4.0% 4%
5.3% 3%
2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic
Share of 2016 RPKs
30%
26%
22%
10%
5%
4%
3%
Domestic Chinese traffic to become number one
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
18
Annual traffic per leg flow
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
South America - USAIntra-Middle East
Domestic BrazilAsia Developped - PRC
Asia Developped - Asia EmergingWestern Europe - South AmericaCentral Europe - Western Europe
Western Europe - PRCAsia Emerging - PRC
Asia Emerging - Middle EastPRC - USA
Domestic IndiaIndian Subcontinent - Middle East
Middle East - USADomestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - Middle EastIntra-Western Europe
Western Europe - USADomestic USADomestic PRC
Trillions RPKs
2016
2036
x3.6 x1.5
x1.8 x1.6
x2.5 x3.7
x4.5 x3.4
x5.4 x3.6
x3.4 x3.8
x2.2 x2.6
x2.0 x2.5 x3.0 x2.6 x3.1 x2.3
Trend towards densification, especially for Low Cost Carriers
143 150
156
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2006 2011 2016
Note: Aircraft capacity above 100 seats and below 210 seats Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF
19
All Airlines average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight LCCs average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight
143
155
165
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2006 2011 2016
A320 Family cabin enablers can raise A320 Family seat counts by up to 10%
20
Slim-line seats
Space-Flex New rear galley
configuration
Smart-Lav New lavatory
design
New doors rating Increased exit limit
Airbus Cabin-Flex
A321neo new door configuration
A319 156 160 seats A320 180 189 seats A321 220 240 seats
21
Airlines are choosing cabin enablers to increase seat count beyond 180 seats
Source: Airbus
Densification trend
A320 deliveries above 180 seats (% total deliveries)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
13% 11% 8% 8% 7% 5% 1%
74% 73% 73% 71% 62%
57% 59%
13% 16% 18% 21% 31%
37% 41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
A319 A320 A321
22
The single-aisle market continues to move towards higher capacity aircraft
Upsizing
A320 Family deliveries
Source: Airbus, End December 2016, includes NEO
23
65% of net orders 41% of deliveries
of Airbus single aisles in 2016 were A321s
A321 – growing in popularity
24
Up to 240 seats & 4,000nm range with unbeatable fuel efficiency
A321neo
Capacity Range Fuel per seat
A321neo vs. 737 MAX 10 +10 seats +1,000nm 10% lower
25
… beats the 787 on comfort, fuel and economics at $20m to $25m lower capital cost
A330neo
26
25% lower • operating cost • fuel burn • CO2 emissions
Compared to previous generation
A350 XWB
27
In 2016, 10% of all passengers at London Heathrow travelled on 54 daily A380 flights*
* Inbound and outbound
10% of all Heathrow passengers
28
Over 80 additional seats with same comfort level as current deliveries
* Project development study
A380 new revenue enablers
New rear stair
Premium Economy Class at 9-abreast
New forward stair*
Combined crew rest compartment
Economy class at 11-abreast
Upper deck sidewall stowage removal
Upper deck door 3 deactivation*
14 seats
8 seats
6 seats
20 seats
23 seats
3 seats
11 seats
X 2.5
Backlog development 2007 - 2016
Industry backlog 12,589 aircraft
Industry backlog 4,988 aircraft
End 2016
2007
Data to end December 2016
Boeing 2,455 49%
Airbus 2,533 51%
Boeing 5,715 45%
Airbus 6,874 55%
X 2.7 X 2.3
Net market share last 10 years
Boeing 8,978 47%
Airbus 9,995 53%
Data to end December 2016
Summary
31
Drivers Strong & resilient passenger traffic growth As air transport develops, new drivers become more significant Middle-class to almost double by 2036
Summary
32
Traffic forecast Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years Airbus traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 4.4% p.a.
Fleet forecast 34,900 new deliveries by 2036: ~34,170 passenger aircraft 730 freighters 40% of new deliveries for replacement, 60% for growth Single-aisle: 71% of units Wide-bodies: 54% of value
Summary
33
Summary
34
Airbus Family A321 an ideal entry-point into medium to long-haul markets A330neo & A350XWB: the lowest total cost widebody family with superior comfort levels A380: The solution for future traffic growth
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