historic linepack usage

Historic Linepack Usage

Review Group 291 – May 2010

Historic Closing Linepack

Closing Linepack, Oct 2002 to April 2010

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

01/1

0/20

02

01/0

4/20

03

01/1

0/20

03

01/0

4/20

04

01/1

0/20

04

01/0

4/20

05

01/1

0/20

05

01/0

4/20

06

01/1

0/20

06

01/0

4/20

07

01/1

0/20

07

01/0

4/20

08

01/1

0/20

08

01/0

4/20

09

01/1

0/20

09

01/0

4/20

10

mcm

New pipelines

Closing Linepack – last two years

CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

37010

/05/

2008

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

mcm

Seasonal variation with demand

CLP and demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

10/0

5/20

08

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

mcm

CLP

demand

Clsoing linepack variation with demand

demand and CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

demand, mcm

CL

P,

mcm

Closing linepack and residual balancing trades

CLP and residual balancing trade volume

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

37010

/05/

2008

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

CL

P,

mcm

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

res

bal

tra

de

vol,

mcm

trade volume CLP

Closing linepack and aggregate trades

CLP and aggregate residual balancing trade volume

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

45010

/05/

2008

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

CL

P,

mcm

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

agg

reg

ate

res

bal

tra

de

vol,

mcm

CLP aggregate trade volume

Predicted closing linepack - midnight day-ahead

CLP and 00:00 D-1 PCLP

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

41010

/05/

2008

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

mcm

CLP

00:00 D-1 PCLP

PCLP – start of the gas day

CLP and 06:00 D PCLP

270.00

290.00

310.00

330.00

350.00

370.00

390.00

410.00

10/0

5/20

08

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

mcm

CLP

06:00 D PCLP

PCLP – midnight on the day

CLP and 00:00 D PCLP

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

41010

/05/

2008

10/0

7/20

08

10/0

9/20

08

10/1

1/20

08

10/0

1/20

09

10/0

3/20

09

10/0

5/20

09

10/0

7/20

09

10/0

9/20

09

10/1

1/20

09

10/0

1/20

10

10/0

3/20

10

10/0

5/20

10

mcm

CLP

00:00 D PCLP

PCLP evolution

PCLP - CLP, Apr-09 to Mar-10,on days when no residual balancing trades,

at six-hourly intervals from 00:00 D-1

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

00:00 D-1 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 EOD

mcm

Summary

Closing linepack is managed in a range, with seasonal variation, using residual balancing actions when required.

Large uncertainty in early PCLP values means other considerations needed for day-ahead assessment.