household projections and forest land loss presentation for the governors commission on sustainable...

Household Projections and Forest Land Loss

Presentation for the Governor’s Commission on Sustainable

ForestryJuly 20, 2005

Maryland Department of Planning

MD Land Use 197311%

47%

42%

Developed

Forest

Agriculture

MD Land Use 2002

22%

43%

35%

Developed

Forest

Agriculture

MD Land Use: '73 - '02

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Developed Forest Agriculture

Acr

es

1973

2002

Forest Land Change

• 249,396 = Acres of forest land lost to development 1973-2002

• 8,599 = Forest acres lost per year 1973-2002

• 38% = Forest lands converted to development 1973-2002

• 310,406 = # of HH developed on forest land 1970-2000

• 27,791 = Average new HH per year 1970-2000

• .80 = Acres of forest consumed per HH

Land Use numbers are from MDP land use / land cover data. HH Projections are prepared by MDP, Planning Data Services, May 2004

Approximately an average of 8,600 acres lost per year

Change in Forest Land

2,450,000

2,500,000

2,550,000

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

1973 1978 1983 1988 1994 1999Year

To

tal

Acr

es o

f F

ore

st L

and

2002

Household Projections

Household Projections

• 1,980,859 Households in 2000• 2,555,755 Households in 2030• Additional 574,896 Households

Subdivision of Land in Agricultural Zoning Districts

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Kent

Queen

Al legany

Dor chesterWor cester

Car ol ine

T albot

Fr eder ick

Somer set

Gar r ett

Char les

Ceci lMontgomer y

Wicomico

Washington

P r ince

Har f or d

Baltimor e

Car r ol lSt. Mar y's

Calver t

Anne

Howar d

T he aver age number of par c el s <=20 ac r es per 1, 000 ac r es of unpr otec ted agr i c ul tur al l y z oned l and. Sour c e: M ar yl and Depar tment of P l anni ng's M ar yl and

P r oper ty V i ew 2000 enhanc ed par c el data bas e. K : / c mp/ agc er t/ gr aphs _ 2000. x l s c har t 1

= Central MD

= Southern MD

= Lower ES

= Upper ES

= Western MD

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

KentDor chester

Al leganyQueen Anne's

Somer setWor cester

Gar r ettFr eder ick

T albotCar ol ine

Ceci lP r ince

Baltimor eMontgomer y

WicomicoWashington

Car r ol lChar les

Anne Ar undelCalver t

Har f or dSt. Mar y's

Howar d

Agricultural Land Lost To Development, 1990-2000Percent of Unprotected Agricultural LandDeveloped in Parcels of 20 Acres or Less

Recent r esidential development pr essur e in agr icultur al ar eas is shown as the per cent of unpr otected agr icultur al ly zoned land developed (impr oved par cels <=20 acr es) dur ing the ten most r ecent year s f or which data is

avai lable. Sour ce: Mar yland Depar tment of P lanning's Mar yland P r oper ty View 2000, enhanced par cel database, and County zoning cover ages. K: / cmp/ agcert/ graphs_2000. xls chart 2