how to determine mobile roi with multi touch attribution

MULTI TOUCH ATTRIBUTION AND DETERMINING ROI

DAVID PEREZ

CMO, CONVERTRO

1

2004 2007 2010

2010

2010

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

Display

Demand

Side

Platform

Display

Supply

Side

Platform

Video

Demand &

Supply Side

Platform

Real

Time

AttributionContent

Personalization

Engine

Dynamic

Creative

Optimization

for

Product

Level

Retargeting

Rich

Media

Platform

Premium

Formats

NetworkVideo

Ad

Network

Ad

ServerDisplay Ad

Network

AOL PLATFORM EXPANSION

2

DMPAUDIENCE MGMT & ANALYTICS

MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION

Video, Display, Retargeting, PPC

ONE ENTERPRISE SUITE

3

Programmatic Buying Tools

MA

RK

ET

ER

SC

ON

SU

ME

RS

• Track all offline and online

media

• Track online & offline sales

• Automated spend

integration

PC, MOBILE, SOCIAL, TV, RADIO,

CATALOG

MEASURE

USER LEVEL

$1

7

DISPLAY

$3

3

VIDEO SOCIAL EMAIL RETAIL

$8 $4

2

• Algorithm assigns spend and $

value to each touch point

• Top down & bottom up

• Data updated every 24 hrs

$1

00

ATTRIBUTE

• Optimize media spend

factoring diminishing

returns

• Scenario planner for

“what if” mix analysis

• Integrate into buying tools

OPTIMAL

SPEND

BUYING

TOOLS

OPTIMIZE

OUR APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION MEASUREMENT

MEASURE

5

CASE STUDY: CROSS-DEVICE TRACKING

6

Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing results

Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving desktop sales

• Discovered that of multi-device users were switching

from mobile to desktop before converting

• Optimized mobile based on overall results

CROSS DEVICE TRACKING

Email Address = The New Cookie…

User ID = Non PII Track & Sync

7

CROSS DEVICE TRACKING

8

• Conversion Events (Sale) – Pass User ID

• Login – Pass User ID

• Overlay – Pass User ID via email

capture

FIRST PARTY

CROSS DEVICE TRACKING

• Convertro 2nd party

client pool device

mappings

• DFA Android + Gmail

• Atlas Facebook

9

SECOND PARTY

• Cookie sync with 3rd

party data providers that

track cross-device

• DrawBridge

• LiveRamp

• TapAd

THIRD PARTY

ATTRIBUTE

10

• Problem: Bonobos relied on last-click

attribution and didn’t know which

channels were more effective in

driving new customers

• Result: Model shifted more credit to

effective channels such as Facebook

and away from navigational sources11

CASE STUDY: ATTRIBUTION MODELING

CONVERTRO ALGORITHM

12

13

Event Chaining

• Attribute events

preceding sale to assess

their predictive value

• Addresses “new” vs.

“repeat” purchases

• Handles multiple steps in

conversion funnel

• Allows touch-points to

exhibit various forms

of non-linear effects

like diminishing

returns

• Analyzes

“frequency” of

touch-points vs. just

indicators

Continuous

CovariatesNon-linear Effects

MTA MODEL ENHANCEMENTS

14

• Measures true incremental lift

of paid and unpaid marketing

on sales relative to base

probability

• Brand Equity - How much

revenue would I get if I shut off

all marketing spend?

• What is the combined impact

of frequency & recency

• Estimate period over which

“impressions” and “clicks” by

channel/tactic decay over time

Base/lift Time Decay

MTA MODEL ENHANCEMENTS

MODEL VALIDATION

• Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets

(80/20 split)

• Train a set of models on the training set

• Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with

the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail).

15

OPTIMIZE

16

TV worked, but only on specific

channels with specific creative.

Convertro helped DSC identify

these opportunities.

With Convertro, Dollar Shave Club

was able to use TV to profitably

acquire customers online.

17

CASE STUDY: OPTIMIZATION

18

SHIFT SPEND AT CHANNEL LEVEL

OPTIMIZING - TACTICAL ALLOCATIONS

KEYWORDS

HIDDEN

19

SCENARIO PLANNING

20

• Track all offline and online

media

• Track online & offline sales

• Automated spend

integration

PC, MOBILE, SOCIAL, TV, RADIO,

CATALOG

MEASURE

USER LEVEL

$1

7

DISPLAY

$3

3

VIDEO SOCIAL EMAIL RETAIL

$8 $4

2

• Algorithm assigns spend and $

value to each touch point

• Top down & bottom up

• Data updated every 24 hrs

$1

00

ATTRIBUTE

• Optimize media spend

factoring diminishing

returns

• Scenario planner for

“what if” mix analysis

• Integrate into buying tools

OPTIMAL

SPEND

BUYING

TOOLS

OPTIMIZE

RECAP