Search for causation, not correlation

79% of Direct Mail (snail mail) acquisitions have navigational brand activity from a search or site visit…

No one-size fits all model, but you’ll learn to be less wrong over time…

Split Personality: SEM + Evangelism

Multi-Channel Attribution Overview

Potpourri: 5 Test Points

Last Year 44% had no attribution model

None

First or last click

Even-weighted

Custom weights via business rules

Algorithmic

Other

44%

30%

17%

17%

11%

1%

Source: Forrester Research Marketing Executive Panel (2012)

Base: 267 interactive marketing executives; respondents selected all answers that apply

Options for Attribution Models

• Close to purchase action

• Less data required

• Values introducers and display

tools for generating interest

(prospecting)

• Recognizes value in for

introducers and influencers

• Rewards branded search &

retargeting

• Hurts display ads before first

brand or site engagement

• Unconnected to action or

measureable influence

• Arbitrary time window,

could be weeks or months

• Rewards high volume, low

quality touches

Before You Start

Clicks to Bricks

Retail Ad Spend Trends By Channel

60.0%

8.6%

14.5%

5.6%

5.0%6.2%

% Makeup Interactive Portfolio

2012 (F) vs. 2016 (F)

Paid search SEO Display Email Social Mobile

52.8%

6.3%

17.1%

4.5%

6.2%

13.2%

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

Adding Offline Presence drives 20%+ in major markets

Online Store +

Brick & Mortar

Online Store Only

New Brick & Mortars

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

For a typical multi-

channel retailer, over

90% of transactions

happen in store.

For every $1 of

ecommerce revenue

generated from paid

search, [there is]

another $6 of in-

store revenue.

Situation:

Rapid expansion of

retail footprint and

digital presence

created need to

understand online

to in-store

correlations

Approach:

Team started

measuring online

visitors who clicked

on the “get

directions” and

“Email/Text/Print

Store info” as a key

indicator of a

customer’s visit to

the store.

A cookie was attached to

the email receipt

customers received after

completing an in-store

purchase, tying it back to

their original visit to the

online site.

Over time Microsoft was

able to attribute an in-

store value to each end

action a customer takes

online.

Like every technique, this is not perfect because it doesn’t take into account device breakage (i.e. when a customer clicks “get directions”

on one computer but opens sales receipt on another device) or email collection drop (folks that don’t provide an email for a receipt) but

overtime you can find good dependable estimates for these two “leakages” and adjust your sales results accordingly.

PURCHASEINSTORE RECEIPT

TAGS DETECTED

CREDIT GIVEN

SEND RECEIPT

BY EMAIL

ONLINE ADS

EMAIL OPENED

PIXEL FIRED

Use emails for in-store events to increase coverage

Each time a visitor registered for an event, a conversion event

was recorded - estimating how many visitors were sent to the

store through these online ads.

The average purchase an attendee makes at an event

determined the value associated with the event registration.

This created a parameter on how much to spend on event

related ads going forward.

Start Small.Start with High Value Touches.

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

12%

26%

40% 41%44%

58%

40%

59%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+

Average

= +23%

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

Unique coupon

codes, hidden URL

(bingads.com/offer)

& unique phone #

Direct Mail leads to Navigational Activity

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

Average Rev. Lift x4.8 Online Media 2.4

Direct Site Visit 5.1

Web Marketing 7.8

Offline to Online

Online to Offline

Display Impact

Direct Mail

TeleSales Impact

Hypothesis Tests

Next Steps

Start Small. But just start.