iiasa final

The Evolutionary Seesaw:Origins of Biodiversity?

Carl Boettiger

UC Davis

August 26, 2009

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 1/22

[ speciation ]

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 2/22

[ biodiversity ]

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 3/22

[ insects ]

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Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 5/22

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 6/22

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 7/22

The Evolutionary Seesaw

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 8/22

-2 -1 0 1 2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

x

exp(-

x^2)

seed size

frequency

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 9/22

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 10/22

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 11/22

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 12/22

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Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 15/22

-2 -1 0 1 2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

x

exp(-

x^2)

seed size

frequency

preference

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 16/22

Pairwise Invasibility Plot

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

x

1 *

 x

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

my position

his

posi

tion

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 17/22

Adding coexistence times

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

x

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

my position

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1 *

 x

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

his

posi

tion

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 18/22

Puzzles of biodiversity, or, why so many beetles?

Understanding the control nobs of biodiversity

Population size

Mutation rate

Competition strength

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 19/22

Thanks!

Ulf Dieckmann

Rupert Mazzucco

EEP Team

IIASA

NAS

UCD

CSGF, DoE

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 20/22

Calculating coexistence times

T (x) = 2

Z x

a

dyR by

exp

„R za dx

»2A(x)B(x)

–«B(z)

dz

exp“R y

a dxh

2A(x)B(x)

i” (1)

All A

"Energ

y"

All BCarl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 21/22

Adding numerical data

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

x trait

y tr

ait

Carl Boettiger, UC Davis The Evolutionary Seesaw 22/22