integrated assessment of the water-energy-land-food nexus in indian punjab

Summer School 2013

Session 3.D The Punjab Case study

Cristina MadridWed, September 10th 2014

Contents

1. Why the nexus2. Punjab: Main Issues3. System description in MuSIASEM4. Integrating the Punjabi Metabolism

Water

Soil

Energy

ChallengeIndustry Cereal

ProductionAgriculture

Fracking

Vegetables

Pasture Coca-ColaMetal

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

1,500 500 500 1,500

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

50-59

70-79

Thousand people

Age groups

RURAL

WomenMen

1,500 500

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

50-59

70-79

Thousand people

Age groups

URBAN

WomenMen

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

• No change in the

living patterns

• Remmitances

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

tho

usa

nd

ha

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Gram

Cotton

Groundnuts

Sugar cane

Rapeseed andmustard

• Food security

•Strong

regulations from

India

•Access to 25% transboundary

surface waters

•Overexploitation of natural

resources

1,500 500 500 1,500

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

50-59

70-79

Thousand people

Age groups

RURAL

WomenMen

1,500 500

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

50-59

70-79

Thousand people

Age groups

URBAN

WomenMen

• No change in the

living patterns

• Remmitances

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usa

nd

ha

Wells Government canals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usa

nd

s

Electric Diesel

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usa

nd

To

nn

es

K2O P2O5 N

Evolution of Irrigated land by water source, number of wells, and fertilizer use.

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

Ecosystems

e+1

River basins

e-1

Sub-basins

e-2

Water cycle

e+2

Feasibilitycheck

International trade

India

s+1s+2

Agriculture

s-1

Cereal Production

s-2

Viability check

Water bodies/ Punjab

e/s (SES)

Issues Treatment:External ViewWatershedWater impacts

Issue Treatment:Internal ViewProblemshedVirtual Water

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

s-1Focal Level (e/s) s-2e+1

AgricultureWater Bodies

Ecosystem

e+2

Climate PunjabCereals

Production

Recharge Supply Availability Appropriation

Extraction Use UseAppropriation

Watershed perspective Problemshed perspective

Operationalization

Punjab:Considered in the analysis as an organMultiple scales of analysis for the delimitationStudy of the nexus from global to local

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

697

69 33 25

60224

50

5.2

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Food (1015 J) Energy (1015 J) Water (109 m3) GDP (109 USD)

Imports Internal supply Exports Internal Use

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

AG3%

PW*6%

HH91%

INTERNATIONAL (n+2)

INDIA (n+1)

PU

NJA

B (

n) Wheat

42%

Rice28%

Crops17%

Non Irrigated

2%

HUMAN ACTIVITY LAND USE

ECOSYSTEM FUNDS (e)

ECOSYSTEMS e

INTERNATIONAL n+2

INDIA n+1Remittances

0.26

Procurement 4

+

Subsidies 0.43Taxes

PUNJAB n

ELP 0.9 USD/hr

Agriculture n-2

LU

Households n-1

HA

Grains

Procurement

20

Gra

in E

xp

ort

s 3

Self-consumption 4

106 Tonne

Off-farm PW n-2

HA 7

HA 220

109 hours

HA 14

109 USD

PW* income 23

ELP 1.8 USD/hr

Expenditure

Begining of subsidizedpumping energy0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980

1982

198

4

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

199

8

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Thousand ha

Surface Water

Groundwater

s-1Focal Level (e/s) s-2e+1

AgricultureWater Bodies

Ecosystem

e+2

Climate PunjabCereals

Production

Recharge Supply Availability Appropriation

Extraction Use UseAppropriation

Watershed perspective Problemshed perspective

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

ECOSYSTEMS e

INTERNATIONAL n+2

INDIA n+1

HA 7

HA 220

ELP 0.9

USD/hr

Self-consumption 4

Agriculture n-2Households n-1 PUNJAB n

LUHA

WMDGrain 9,700 m3/ha

WMDAG 7,000 m3/ha

hm3

0%

50%

100%

SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor

Impact

OK

GWU

56,000

SAW SAS

Loading106 Tonne 109 hours

ECOSYSTEMS e

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

hm3 Loading106 Tonne 109 hours

0%

50%

100%

SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor

Impact

OK

GWU

56,000

SAW SAS

Extraction Blue Green Total

Underground 31 0 31

Surface 15 0 15

Soil 0 26 26

TOTAL 46 26 72

Loses factor (Blue)

0

6

0

Use Blue Green Total

Underground 31 0 31

Surface 9 0 9

Soil 0 26 26

TOTAL 40 26 66

- =

Local use Blue Green WMR EPW

HH + PW* (n-2) 1 0 5 N/A

PW (n-1) 39 26 2,993 31

AG (n-2) 39 26 9,129 9

Rice & Wheat (n-3) 35 23 9,064 N/A

TOTAL Whole (n) 40 26 274 30

Imports 0 0 0 0

Domestic Use Blue Green

HH + PW* (n-2) 1 0

AG (n-2) 10 9

Rice & Wheat (n-3) 7 6

TOTAL SA (n) 11 9

Expeditions India 28 16

Expeditions % 71% 64%

Openness=

-68%(Net exporter)

Appropriation Rivers Aquifers

Extraction

Recharge (Km3) 21 21

Interntl. Use Rights 25% 100%

Dam Reserve (km3) 11 N/A

Blocks (no.) N/A 138

Extraction (km3) 15 31

Overexp. Blocks (no.) N/A 110

Lodging

RAMSAR in Risk 3/3 N/A

Regions Over Salinity N/A 6/25

Aquifer Over Nitrate N/A 16/25Aquifer . Over Metals N/A 10/25

Max BOD (mgL) 50 N/A

External view Internal view

3b Metabolism3a Description2 Issues1 Nexus

Problemshed WatershedW

ate

r Ex

chan

ge

Water Flows (2010) (30 year pattern) Water Flows

Org

aniz

atio

n

Societal Funds Ecosystem Funds

Punjab Society

HA 241·109h

F 4·106 ton

India

F 20·106 ton

MI 0.2 USD/kg

Punjab Ecosystem

International

Market

F 3·106

ton

Other functionsCereal Production

HA 3 %

F 27·106 ton

HA 97%

ClimateRecharge

460 mmTransboundary

Recharge

?

Appropriation:

Erosion 45%

Appropriation

:

Ramsar in

Danger 100%

Appropriation:

Water table

-1 m/year

Surface

bodies

Soil

Aquifers

Supply

?

Supply

?

Supply

?

Groundwater

Soil

Moisture

Surface

Water

WFL 12 km3

WFL 26 km3

WFL 1·km3

Production Factor

Human right

Cultural

element

WMR

9·m3/h

WMR

3·m3/h

WMR

95 Lpd

WY

0.5 ton/m3

Summer School 2014

cristina.madrid@uab.es