interior columbia basin trt draft viability criteria june, 2005 esu & population levels
Post on 27-Mar-2015
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Interior Columbia Basin TRTDraft Viability Criteria
June, 2005
ESU & Population Levels
Outline
• General Approach to evaluating ESU viability
• Population criteria– Abundance & Productivity– Spatial Structure & Diversity– Integrating these components for a population
• Higher Level– MPG criteria and examples– ESU level risk criteria
NOAA asked TRTs to address this question in context of the following:
• Identify historical populations
• Identify “viability criteria” for each population
• Identify guidelines for viable ESUs (how many and which populations?)
What are the basic TRT technical tasks?
TRT Hierarchical Criteria
Pop Attributes
Pop Status
Stratum/Geographic Unit/Major Population Group Status
ESU Status ESU
Stratum 1 Stratum 2 Stratum 3
Population Level
• VSP Guidelines identify four basic components to consider:– Abundance– Productivity– Spatial Structure– Diversity
Abundance/Productivity CriteriaPopulation Level
• Abundance refers to the average number of spawners in a population over a generation or more.
• Productivity (or population growth rate) refers to the performance of the population over time.
• Abundance should be high enough that:– In combination with intrinsic productivity, declines to critically low levels
would be unlikely assuming recent patterns of environmental variability
– Compensatory processes provide resilience to the effects of short-term perturbations
– Within population substructure is maintained (e.g., multiple spawning patches, etc)
Viability Curve Approach
• Assume a simple, generic model – Hockey stick is relatively conservative.
• Include a measure of year to year variability consistent with observations
• Select Risk objective – e.g., less than 5% risk of quasi-extinction in 100 years.
• Quasi-extinction: Extremely low level of escapement below which continued production is uncertain – 50 spawners is current level
• Run model many times and define threshold combinations of Intrinsic Productivity and Average abundance associated with meeting risk objective.
Viability Curve: Basic PrinciplesHockey Stick: Conservative Model
Spring ChinookViability Curves (Hockey Stick)
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.20
250
500
750
1000
70:30
1600260036004600
Hi Risk
Low Risk
Mean R/S
Sta
rtin
g P
opul
atio
n S
ize
Abundance/Productivity CriteriaPopulation Level
• Adapting basic viability curves to reflect complex spatial structure and size for particular populations
– Using measure of historical intrinsic potential as index – Relatively simple populations (e.g., Entiat spring
chinook) used as standard.
– Complex, relatively large populations (e.g., Wenatchee and Methow spring chinook or steelhead) would have potential for higher combinations of abundance and productivity, therefore lower risk
Spring/Summer Chinook: Natural Origin Smolt to Adult Return Rates (Referenced to Lower Granite Run Size)
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Brood Year
LGR
Smol
t to
Adul
t Su
rviv
al (S
AR)
Williams CSS/Petrosky Average 1978- Avg.
Assessing Abundance & Productivity StatusPopulation Level
• Measuring against the Viability Curve
• Abundance: Recent average across generation
• Intrinsic Productivity – Difficult to directly measure – Population Change Criteria – sustained growth rate from low abundance– Population growth rate over time– Return per spawner metrics – Curve fitting
• Directly incorporate estimates of uncertainty when comparing population status to viability curves
• Where feasible: Augment adult return information with indices of juvenile productivity and smolt to adult survival
Spatial Structure/Diversity Criteria
• Two interrelated categories– Maintaining natural structure – spawning
aggregations, spatial relationships
– Maintaining Natural Variation
Spatial Structure Criteria Population Level
• Spatial Structure refers to the geographic distribution of a population and the processes supporting that distribution.
• Basic rationale:– Multiple spawning reaches within a population provides
protection against local catastrophic loss– Some production areas may be inherently more productive
than others – potentially serving as sources to a broader range of areas after prolonged periods of low survival, etc.
– Multiple spawning areas provide greater opportunities for differentiation
Diversity CriteriaPopulation Level
• Diversity: the distribution of traits within and among populations of an ESU
• Three reasons for diversity criteria:– Allows a species to use a wide array of environments– Protection against short term changes in habitat– Provides the genetic material necessary to adapt to
longer term changes in the environment
#
Entiat River
#
Mad River
Enitiat RiverSpring Chinook MSAs
Branch
>1.25km Weighted "moving window"
Major Spawning Area
<100000m2 (non-MSA)
>=100000m2 (MSA)
0 5 10 Miles
0 5 10 Kilometers
#
Vansycle Canyon
#
Woodward Canyon
#
Mill Creek
#
South Fork Walla Walla River
#
North Fork Walla Walla River
#
Pine Creek
#
Dry Creek
#
Spring Valley Creek
#
Spring Creek
# Cottonwood Creek
#
Dry Creek
#
Couse Creek
#
Little Dry Creek
#
Blue Creek
non-MSA
branch
MSA
Walla Walla RiverSummer Steelhead MSAs
0 10 20 Miles
0 10 20 Kilometers
– Spawning Range• High Risk:
– Small/Simple Populations: Historical range reduced: Absence of spawners from 50% or more of the historical distribution based on intrinsic potential analysis. OR
– Absence or major reduction from major habitat categories (e.g., upstream/downstream, tribs vs mainstem, ecoregions)
– Complex Populations: Same as above OR
Absence of spawners from 50% or more of historical Major Spawning Areas - MSAs
Diversity Criteria Population Level
• Phenotypic Traits (morphological and life history)– Loss of major life history strategies– Reductions/changes in traits
• Genetic Characteristics– Direct measures – Influences of artificial production
• Population characteristics that suggest changes in diversity– Gaps in spawning – Spawner composition– Selective effects of human activities– Spawning distribution vs habitat types
Integrating Across SSD CriteriaPopulation Level
• Simple Weighted scoring approach
• A population would be rated at HIGH risk if:– Average rating across spatial distribution criteria is
HIGH RISK or
Rating for life history or direct genetic criteria at HIGH Risk or
– Average rating across Life history, genetics, habitat and selectivity criteria is HIGH
V V V
V V V
Spatial Structure/Diversity RISK
Very Low Low Moderate High
Very Low(<1%)
Low<5%
Moderate<25%
HIGH
Abundance & Productivity RISK
Criteria: Distribution, Life history/geneticsSupporting processes
Assessing Population Viability: Integrating Across VSP CriteriaICTRT DRAFT (May 2005)
Criteria:Recent AbundanceAnd ProductivityvsViability Curve
V = Viable population
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
Major TRT considerations regarding “how many and which”:
1) Catastrophic risk2) Diversity2) Metapopulation Dynamics
Major policy consideration:Flexibility
NationalMarine
FisheriesService
How Many and Which Populations?
NationalMarine
FisheriesService
How Many and Which Populations?
General TRT approach to “how many and which”:
• Partition each ESU into groups of populations based on genetic measures, major habitat patterns (e.g., eco-regions) and life history variations (Major Population Groupings or “strata”)
• Development of risk based ESU level criteria for deciding how many populations at what status within each stratum.
ESU Level Criteria• VSP Guidelines
– Consistent with historical setting, Multiple populations, some geographically widespread, some in close proximity to one another.
– All Populations within an ESU should not share the same catastrophic risk.
– Populations displaying diverse life histories/phenotypes should be maintained
– Some populations should exceed VSP guidelines.
Proposed ESU Viability Criteria
• An MPG would have a high probability of persistence if:
– At least one-half of the historical populations (minimum of 2) in each extant Major Grouping are meeting population viability criteria. (Major extirpated areas considered on a case by case basis.)
– High viability populations should include all major life history patterns and representative number of large/intermediate populations.
– At least one population in each extant strata should be rated at Very Low risk.
– The remaining extant populations are maintained – i.e., not in immediate danger of extinction
Note: For some multi-population ESUs, there may be combinations of pop status across major groupings that could result in low risk without a requirement that all major groupings individually meet criteria – case by case consideration.
What are the major groupings within Interior ESU’s?
• Based on:– Genetics,
-- life history patterns, – large scale variations in major environmental
factors• EPA ecoregions• Elevation, temperature & precipitation
Snake River Spring Summer Chinook Major Population Groupings & Populations
Lower Snake Tribs Group
Tucannon R.Asotin R.
South Fork Salmon Group
South ForkEast Fork/Johnson Cr.
Secesh R.
Grand Ronde/Imnaha GroupImnaha R. Big Sheep Cr.Wenaha R. Minam R.
Lostine/Wallowa R.Catherine Cr.
Upper Grand Ronde
Middle Salmon R. GroupBig Cr. Bear ValleyMarsh Cr . Sulphur Cr.Loon Cr. Camas Cr.
Chamberlain Cr.Upper Mainstem & tribsLower Mainstem & tribs
Upper Salmon R. Group
Lemhi R. Pahsimeroi R.North Fk Panther Cr Valley Cr. Yankee Fk
East Fk Upper SalmonUpper Salmon tribs.
Above Hells Canyon
(Ext)
Clearwater(Ext.)
Mid-Columbia Steelhead: Major Population Groupings & Populations
Eastern Cascades Group
Deschutes (w)Deschutes (E)
Klickitat Rock Cr.
Fifteen Mile Cr.White Salmon (ext)
John Day Basin Group
Lower John DaySouth Fk John Day
Middle Fork John DayNorth Fork John Day
Upper John Day
Yakima Basin Group
Satus Cr.Toppenish Cr.
Naches R.Upper Yakima R..
Columbia Plateau Group
Umatilla R.Touchet R.
Walla Walla R.Willow Cr
Middle Columbia Steelhead ESUSpawning Elevation Ranges (Intrinsic)
MC
FIF
-s
MC
RO
C-s
MC
WS
A-s
DR
ES
T-s
MC
KLI-
s
DR
WS
T-s
WW
MA
I-s
WW
TO
U-s
MC
UM
A-s
YR
TO
S-s
YR
UM
A-s
YR
NA
C-s
JDLM
T-s
JDM
FJ-
s
JDU
MA
-s
JDN
FJ-
s
JDS
FJ-
s0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Populations
Ele
vati
on
(m
)
top related