international workshop on flash flood forecasting – costa rica march 2006 world meteorological...

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONWORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONWeather, Climate and WaterWeather, Climate and Water

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON FLASH FLOOD FORECASTINGFLASH FLOOD FORECASTING

OVERVIEW OF THE FLOOD-RELATED OVERVIEW OF THE FLOOD-RELATED PROGRAMMES OF WMOPROGRAMMES OF WMO

Bruce StewartBruce StewartPresident of CHyPresident of CHy

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

CONTENT

• Role of WMO in Hydrology and Water Resources

• Objectives of WMO in Hydrology and Water Resources

• Flood-related Activities

• Other WMO Programmes

• Conclusions

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

ROLE OF WMO IN HWR

• Safety of life and property

• Information and knowledge in support of Integrated Water

Resources Management

• Capacity building

• Support for knowledge based operations and policies

• Promotion of risk management approach

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

OBJECTIVE OF WMO IN HWR

To apply hydrology to:

• meet the needs for sustainable development and use of

water and related resources;

• the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters;

and

• ensure effective environmental management at national,

regional and international levels.

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

FOCUS OF WMO IN HWR

• The measurement of basic hydrological elements form networks of

hydrological and meteorological stations

• The collection, processing, storage, retrieval and publication of

hydrological data

• The provision of hydrological data and related information for use in

planning and operating water resources projects and monitoring the

status of water resources

• The provision of effective flood forecasting and warning services

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

COMPONENTS OF THE HWRP

• Basic Systems in Hydrology

• Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology

• Sustainable Development of Water Resources

• Capacity Building in Hydrology and Water Resources

• Water-related Issues

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

FLOOD-RELATED ACTIVITIES

• What do we mean by Flood-related activities?

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

Total Flood Warning System

Prediction

Interpretation

Message Construction

Protective Response

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International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES

• Prediction

- Measurement of rainfall

- Measurement of river height (WHYCOS)

- Derivation of streamflow

- QPE and QPF

- Hydrological Modelling

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES

• Interpretation

- Flood hazard mapping

- Hydraulic modelling

- ???

• Message construction

- ???

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES (Ctd.)

• Communication- Collection systems- Dissemination systems- Web-based information- ???

• Protective response- Design rainfall/flood information - Awareness raising- ???

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

SPECIFIC INITIATIVES

• Standards and Practices• Automated rating curve derivation• Streamflow Gauging Manual• Intercomparison Project – Instruments,

Transmission Systems• Guide to Hydrological Practices• WHYCOS – HYCOS

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

SPECIFIC INITIATIVES (Ctd.)

• Flood Design Manual• PMP Manual • Flood Forecasting Manual• WMO Flood Initiative• International Flood Initiative • Global Flood Forecasting Project

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

GLOBAL/REGIONAL SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SYSTEM

RECOMMENDATIONS

• The tools should be tested in different river basins (in particular, in an arid/semi-arid region);

• Preference should be given to river basins that are multi-national;• The role of the NHSs and other stakeholders must be recognised and

maintained• The involvement of relevant WMO Regional Association Working

Groups on Hydrology should be sought; and• Possible river basins include: the Limpopo, Lake Victoria, a river basin

in West Africa, the Mekong, Central America, the Niger and the Oka.

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

GLOBAL/REGIONAL SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SYSTEM

STEPS/STAGES

• A compilation of the approaches (QPE, QPF, etc);• A study identifying in greater detail the strengths and weaknesses of

the approaches;• A comparative testing of targeted elements of the forecast capability;• Development of a prototypical composite system or systems; and• Preparation of project packages for funding (including a needs

assessment).

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

RECENT DIRECTIONSWeb Products

•Maps and data bulletins•Updated hourly – daily

Modelling•Spatially distributed, event-based•National system - scaleable

Hydromet Inputs•Quantitative radar rain•NWP, QPF

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

Single Most Important Action?

• Community education, engagement & awareness – participation, empowerment, ownership. People should be made aware of their personal risk

• Improved agency coordination – national consistency/national agency, improved agency coordination framework

• Better risk communication – incl. use of technology, radio/media accessibility

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CommunityEducation,

Engagement,Awareness

ImprovedAgency

Coordination

Better RiskCommunication

International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006

CONCLUDING REMARKS

• WMO is doing a lot in its areas of expertise• Where should we target future initiatives? • Any flood forecasting system is only as strong as its

weakest link – how do we involve all of the stakeholders?• Stress the need for greater collaboration between NHSs

and NMSs in flood forecasting • Look forward to the presentations and discussions from

this week to futher define and refine the HWR work plan