introduction to polling and behavior change steve …...•fielded dec 2015 –jan 2016...

Communications Workgroup Summer Retreat

July 11, 2017

Introduction to Polling and Behavior Change

Steve RaabePresident, OpinionWorks, LLC

Behavior ChangeBehavior Change

Starts

with Listening

OpinionWorks Credentials

• Measure perceptions, behaviors• Random samples, focus groups

– The Baltimore Sun polling– University of Delaware

• Ag/Residential response to Water Fee

– Chesapeake Bay Trust• Extensive work assessing stewardship

– City of Dayton, Ohio• Comprehensive survey of resident attitudes

– West Virginia Department of Health• Barriers to cancer screening for low-income women

– Virginia Cooperative Extension• Testing affinity for a sustainable lawn care program

Research Tools:

Quantitative

Surveys

31% 38% 12% 5% 14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure

17% disapprove69% approve

Governor’s Approval Rating

Maryland Registered Voters

OpinionWorksJan 19-30, 2017

“Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly

disapprove of the job Larry Hogan is doing as Governor of Maryland?”

• 2,001 randomly selected adults statewide

• ± 2.2% maximum sampling error, 95% confidence

• Fielded Dec 2015 – Jan 2016

• Supervised, live interviewers; landline and cell

• 18-minute interview (!) on average

• Deep look at attitudes

• Update surveys conducted 2008, 2010

Research Tools

Random Sample Telephone Survey

Attitudes about Bay Restoration

Level of Concern about Problems

“Do you consider each of the following to be a very serious problem, somewhat serious

problem, not much of a problem, or not a problem at all?”

Very Serious + Somewhat Serious Problem

26%

26%

32%

40%

42%

44%

61%

17%

30%

32%

26%

31%

30%

26%

Lead paint/toxins in your home or neighborhood

Extreme weather events

Sprawl or poorly planned growth/development

Climate change

Air pollution

Loss of habitat, such as wetlands and forests

Water pollution in rivers, streams and the Bay

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Climate change has

risen slightly relative

to other concerns

since 2010.

Attitudes about Bay Restoration

Why is Water Protection so Important?

“Water = Life”

Research Tools

Online Survey

Research Tools:

Qualitative

Interviews

Research Objective:

Encourage constituents and external audiences,

from their own unique perspectives,

to identify what compelling new possibilities could

result from the AHS capital campaign.

Research Method

Focus Groups

October 12

6 groups: 4 Staff & 2 Volunteer

Golden Valley

75-minute sessions

Professionally facilitated: Kathy Flament

Research Method

Focus Groups

How We Listen:

1. Consensus first

2. Animating concepts: Tie to inner, emotional drives

3. Findings often affirming, not surprising

Research Method

Focus Groups

Topics:• Impressions of AHS

• Opportunities offered by the capital campaign

• Brainstorming programs and features

The Chesapeake

Bay

Report Card Best Practices

Research Objectives

1. Evaluate existing report cards for how well they engage people and foster stewardship.

2. Test:– Report card content– Layout and design– Maps, graphs, images– Distribution channels

3. Share this work.

Report Card Best Practices

Focus Group Method

• 2 Audiences– General public– Members & volunteers

• 3 Locations– Urban (Baltimore City)– Suburban (Near Annapolis)– Rural (Eastern Shore/Chestertown)

• 120-minute sessions, professionally facilitated

• 7 report cards tested

Report Card Best Practices

Clear and Visual Grades

• Show me the bottom line.• What is the trend?• Letter grades yes. Number grades no.

Report Card Best Practices

Show Me What I Can Do

• Link actions directly to an indicator.• One or two actions, not 10!

Too many choices = Overwhelmed = Inaction

Report Card Best Practices

Tone: Warm, Inviting, Aspirational

• The public knows the water is sick.

• Rather, invite them in.

• Appeal to human nature.

Report Card Best Practices

Acknowledge Non-Traditional Partners

General public readers appreciate acknowledgement of local constituencies.

Report Card Best Practices

Use Common Language

• Avoid “turbidity,” “DO,” and their ilk.

• Or take pains to explain them, every time you use them.

• People read digitally, not analog.

• Use short sentences.

• Find an editor. Test it with neighbors.

Report Card Best Practices

Clean and Uncluttered Appearance

Not this:

Influencing Behavior:

Community Based

Social Marketing

Credit: Nancy R. Lee, University of Washington & Puget Sound Partnership

Adapted from Everett Rogers, Jay Kassirer, Mike Rothschild, Dave Ward, Kristen Cooley

Resistant

16%

Credit: Nancy R. Lee, University of Washington & Puget Sound Partnership

Adapted from Everett Rogers, Jay Kassirer, Mike Rothschild, Dave Ward, Kristen Cooley

Traditional Public Education

• Websites

• Brochures

• Community meetings

Compulsory Actions

• Regulations

• Fees & Fines

• Legal action

Social Marketing Tools

Reaching the Help Me Group

Example Tool: Prompts

• Peel-off sticker

• Refrigerator magnet

Example Tool: Pledge

“Free Upgrade”

A/B Test:A. FloodingB. Water quality

50% of homes visited signed the pledge

Case Study:

To increase the adoption

of wetlands restoration

on agricultural lands

in keeping with

the Chesapeake Bay Agreement

Wetlands Research Audience:

• Agricultural landowners

• 40+ acres

• Not enrolled in wetlands restoration program

• Targeted counties

• Coastal plain to Piedmont

• Good infrastructure and other efforts in place

“Midstream” Stakeholders:

• Service providers to the agricultural landowners

• County agricultural service centers

Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration

Landowners do not know how to start the process, or where to go for information.

Mistrust of government agencies.

Loss of control over what happens on my land.

Strong preference for peer-to-peer validation, at the expense of many other messengers.

Significant privacy concerns.

Smaller farms challenged because they do not want to give up limited tillable land.

“Wetland” is not a positive term, yet it is used extensively in program literature and parlance.

Heavy reliance on postal communication, which introduces limitations on outreach.

Very busy people; hard to reach.

Don’t want people showing up on their land unannounced.

Perceived inflexibility of these programs.

Fear that the land will be out of production forever; may affect future sale price or next generation of landowners.

Mosquitos.

Loss of income.

Variability of crop prices introduces uncertainty.

Landowners’ prevailing view that all land must be “useful.”

Landowners are not being approached with this information.

Very uneven knowledge about program availability, and uneven commitment to selling these programs, among local ag service providers and other advocates.

Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration

Barriers to Adopting Wetlands Programs

1. Lack of information/advocacy

2. Privacy and trust concerns

3. Financial uncertainty

4. Extreme need for flexibility

5. Audience is hard to reach

Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration

Barriers to Adopting Wetlands Programs

1. Water impairment (Delmarva)

1A. Waterfowl Habitat (Delmarva)

1. Erosion/Flash flooding (PA)

2. Encroaching development

Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration

Underlying Concerns of the Audience

3.34

3.37

3.38

3.40

3.47

3.54

3.58

3.72

State Dept of Ag

Farm neighbors

NRCS

Ducks Unlimited

FSA

Extension office

Soil Conservation District

Family members

2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Level of Trust in Information

1-5 scale; Top 8

“Please indicate how much you would trust information from each of these organizations and individuals about preservation

and restoration of natural areas on your land.” (5-point scale of trust.)

2.63

2.80

2.95

2.97

3.08

3.08

3.17

State Dept of Environment

Agricultural retailers

Chesapeake Bay Trust

Chesapeake Wildlife Heritage

Private ag consultants

U.S. Fish & Wildlife

The Nature Conservancy

2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Level of Trust in Information

1-5 scale; Second Tier

“Please indicate how much you would trust information from each of these organizations and individuals about preservation

and restoration of natural areas on your land.” (5-point scale of trust.)

Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration

Critical Connection

Rural

Landowner

Trusted

Specialist

This conversation is critical to:

Building comfort

Answering questions

Assessing alternatives

Photos Courtesy Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay

Stewardship

Indicator

Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement10 broad goals for Bay restoration

Stewardship Outcome

“Increase the number and diversity of trained and mobilized citizen volunteers with the knowledge and skills needed to enhance

the health of their local watersheds.”

Individual Citizen Actions and Behaviors

Volunteerism/ Collective Community Action

Community Leaders/ Champions

Citizen Stewardship FrameworkIncreasing citizen actions for watershed health

Increasingly Environmentally Literate Population (Elit Goal)

Kn

ow

ledg

e & skills

Why Measure Stewardship?– Track progress in engaging the public

– Design social marketing campaigns for BMP adoption and behavior change

– Improve strategic communications to build public support for Bay restoration work

– Prioritize investments in citizen-led action

– Improve local decision-making

Stewardship BehaviorMeasurement Criteria

1. Involves individual decision-making

2. Is repetitive and can be tracked over time

3. Can be broadly adoptedA. Not just by experts

B. Not pre-emergent

4. Has an impact on water health

5. And/or will engage the public

1. Choose the Right Behavior

Impact of the Behavior on Water Quality

x

Penetration (Level of Adoption) in the Community

x

Likelihood the Public will Adopt the Behavior

The Social Marketing Process

Choosing the Right Behavior to Influence

Measured Behaviors• Pet waste (2: on property/off property)

• Leaves/Lawn clippings (2)

• Litter (2: drop/pick-up)

• Fats, grease/Medicines down the drain (2)

• Fertilizer use/keep off hard surfaces (2)

• Pesticide/Herbicide use (2)

• Conservation landscaping

• Rain garden installation

• Septic system

• Tree planting

• Downspout redirect

• Rain barrel/Connected, emptied (2)

• Water conservation

2017 Baseline

All states statistically

significant

N=5,200

VA 1,000 (±3.1%)

MD 1,000 (±3.1%)

PA 1,000 (±3.1%)

DC 800 (±3.5%)

WV 600 (±4.0%)

NY 400 (±4.9%)

DE 400 (±4.9%)

Citizen Stewardship IndicatorSampling Methodology

Fielded March – May 201713-minute interview

Wireless and LandlineSpanish language interviewing

What This Survey Tool Can Do Measure and track Stewardship progress.

Inform smart behavior selection for practitioners.

Level of Adoption x Likelihood x Impact

Segment data by major jurisdiction, demographic.

Be a resource for other Bay Program priorities: Access, Diversity.

47% 19% 10% 11% 12%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

23% disagree66% agree

Polluted water affects me personally.

Level of Agreement

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

37% 34% 20% 5% 4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

9% disagree71% agree

I want to do more to help make local

creeks, rivers, and lakes healthier.

Level of Agreement

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

17% 18% 13% 16% 35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

51% disagree35% agree

My actions contribute to water pollution

where I live.

Level of Agreement

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

43%

45%

46%

70%

71%

71%

86%

90%

19%

18%

23%

14%

8%

6%

4%

22%

22%

19%

11%

9%

4%

3%

13%

12%

9%

2%

4%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

29%

2%

7%

2%

1%

Fertilize lawn

Use herbicides

Use pesticides

Downspouts drain tohard surfaces

Oil/grease down drain

Grass clippings ontohard surfaces

Medicine down drain

Toss litter

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Never/No Seldom Sometimes Usually/Frequently Always/Very Frequently/Yes Not sure

Negative Behaviors

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

22%

34%

40%

50%

53%

73%

19%

14%

7%

38%

16%

6%

10%

7%

5%

11%

29%

60%

31%

45%

25%

Pick up litter

Bag, mulch, compostleaves

Planted a tree

Pick up dog waste

Conserve water athome

Septic systeminspected/pumped out

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure

Positive Behaviors: Higher Tier

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

10%

14%

13%

10%

26%

12% 12% 7%

90%

86%

86%

55%

73%

Rain barrel connected,emptied

Have a rain barrel

Created a rain garden

Keep fertilzer off hardsurfaces

Replaced an area ofgrass lawn

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure

Positive Behaviors: Lower Tier

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

22%

50%

19%

7%

38%

6%

10%

5%

11%

31%

Pick up litter

Pick up dog waste

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure

Focus Behaviors for Today

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

43%

46%

19%

23%

22%

19%

13%

9%

1%

2%

Fertilize lawn

Use pesticides

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Never/No Seldom Sometimes Usually/Frequently Always/Very Frequently/Yes Not sure

33.75

34.05

35.95

36.30

44.30

44.60

46.35

51.40

59.15

Pick up other people's litter

Use pesticides

Use herbicides

Have your septic inspected/pumped

Wash medicines down the drain

Empty your rain barrel

Blow grass clippings onto hard surfaces

Wash oil/grease down the drain

Toss food wrappers/cups/cigarette butts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Behaviors Most Susceptible to Change

Asked Only of Those Not Taking the Desired Action Today

Very Somewhat Not

100 50 0

0 50 100

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Looking forward over the next year or so, how likely are you to do each of these things using the scale

(rotate high to low/low to high): [very likely, somewhat likely, (or) not likely]?

14.35

14.40

20.35

21.85

23.30

26.00

26.80

27.80

28.70

32.10

Create a rain garden

Install a rain barrel

Reduce lawn area with native plants

Pick up dog waste and dispose in trash

Conserve water with low flow fixtures

Plant a tree

Keep fertilzer off hard surfaces

Redirect downspouts

Fertilize your grass lawn

Bag/mulch/compost leaves

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Behaviors Less Susceptible to Change

Asked Only of Those Not Taking the Desired Action Today

Very Somewhat Not

100 50 0

0 50 100

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Looking forward over the next year or so, how likely are you to do each of these things using the scale

(rotate high to low/low to high): [very likely, somewhat likely, (or) not likely]?

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Interesting Facts about Picking up Dog Waste

• 66% always or usually dispose of their dog’s waste on their own property.

• Only 48% always or usually do so off their property.

• Apartment dwellers and duplexes much more likely to pick it up, both on and off property.

• DC Residents much more likely than rural residents to pick up dog waste.

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Interesting Facts about Pesticide

• Urban and suburban residents somewhat more likely to use pesticides than small town or rural.

• Women slightly more likely than men.

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Interesting Facts about Fertilizing

• Fertilizer use much higher among age 45+.

• Higher among suburban and better-educated.

• Rises significantly with income.

Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)

Interesting Facts about Picking up Litter

• Much more prone to pick it up if over age 35.

• Homeowners much more likely.

• Small town and rural residents most likely to pick it up; urban residents least likely.

How to Apply

What We Have

Learned?