iraqis call on the new government for jobs, services, and ... poll - aug-oct 2018...

Iraqis Call on the New Government for Jobs, Services, and Reconstruction

August – October 2018 Survey Findings PUBLIC REPORT

WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork 1

This material has been funded by the UK government; however the views and opinions

expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

2WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork

Methodology Overview –  17 August – 1 October 2018

–  3804 face-to-face interviews (14,582 unweighted)

–  National, covering 18 governorates; including 102 interviews from IDP camp

–  Avg. MOE +/-: 1.6% national; 4.8% Baghdad; 1.8% South (Babil, Basra, Kerbala, Missan, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wassit); 2.4% West (Anbar, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa, Salahaddin); 3.1% Kurdish Region of

Iraq (KRI)

–  Representative by gender, age, education, urban/rural

–  Multi-stage cluster sampling; probability proportional to size sampling down to block level in urban areas; simple random sampling at rural village selection and house/individual level

–  Half and quarter split samples were used on select questions for testing purposes or to reduce the survey length

–  Implementation team: NDI, JPM Strategic Solutions, GQR, IIACSS

–  14th national survey in Iraq conducted by team dating back to 2010; 2nd national survey conducted by team this year

1.  Country mood more pessimistic, driven by increasing frustration in services and lingering job concerns in West and South.

2.  Smaller majority perceive security is improving, as concerns toward ISIS or terrorism-related violence increase.

3.  Low trust in government institutions and low confidence in elections drive perceptions that Iraq is more divided and drive support for protests.

4.  Most see Shia-Sunni relations as improving.

5.  Role of women in Iraq at pivot point. Strong demand for equal rights that are not being delivered. Some differences in views by gender.

6.  High expectations on government to create jobs, while most see bribes and connections are necessary to get a government job.

Key findings

Country mood worsens, especially in West

19 24 6

80 75 91

Total Baghdad South West KRI

Right direction Wrong direction

Country mood worsening especially in West Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

∆ April ‘18

-10 +12 +3 -1 -8 +10 -26 +28 -2 +3

Most say country not going in right direction

% saying right direction

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

42 36 32

56 63 66

Right direction Wrong direction

But views toward governorates in West more positive And generally speaking, do you think that things in (Province/KRI) are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

∆ April ‘18

-3 +4 +0 +1 -3 +5 -5 +6 +4 -6

Thinking specifically about your life now compared to 6 months ago, would you say you are more or less satisfied now than compared to 6 months ago?

Thinking specifically about your life, do you expect things to get better for you or worse for you over the next 6 months.

Satisfaction and expectations down outside KRI

42 43 30

56 56 69

More satisfied Less satisfied

∆ April ’18

-9 +9 -10 +10 -13 +14 -15 +15 +17 -21

54 57 47

46 39 38

Better Worse

∆ April ’18 -7 +9 -4 +7 -10 +13 -11 +14 +3 -10

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Access to services like electricity)

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Baghdad

Worse Better

Access to basic services worsening, especially in South ∆ April

‘18 Better

-13 -8 -4

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Baghdad

Total Worse Better

Growing majority in West say reconstruction efforts worse

∆ April ‘18 Better

-10 -5

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Government’s response to reconstruct areas once occupied by ISIS)

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Views on other issues, economy reflect worsening mood

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Corruption

Job opportunities

Cost of living

Housing

The justice system

Education

Worse Better

-6 -3 -2

2 7 10 11 12

0 10 20 30 40 50

High prices

Fairness of, access to justice

Sectarianism

Health care services

Infrastructure

Education and schools

Security

Corruption

Basic services—electricity, water

Jobs and unemployment

Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address.

∆ April 18

-3 +16 -4 -2 +1 -4 +2 +0 -2 -3

Top priorities for the next Iraqi government

3 14 14

21 25 26 26

0 10 20 30 40

Property/land grabbing Garbage/environment

Healthcare facilities Personal safety

Infrastructure The economy

Schools and education Corruption

Potable water Electricity

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for your governorate’s government to address.

∆ April 18 +9

+10 -5

Electricity and water top demand of local government

Outside of KRI, majority concerned about drinking water Now, I am going to read you a list of environmental concerns that some people may have. Please tell me which two concern you the most?

0 20 40 60 80

Pollution resulting from conflict

Extreme weather, like heat and sand storms

Industry-related air pollution

Lack of water for farming

Lack of sanitation and open sewage

Lack of clean drinking water

KRI Non-KRI

90% in Basra concerned most

about clean drinking water

Government Institutions and Elections Viewed More Negatively

20 22 17 19 22

72 74 75 76

Awareness of government priorities remains low I generally have a good idea what my

local government's priorities are.

I do not have a good sense of what my local government's priorities are.

∆ April ’18

-1 +5 +0 +4 -3 +9 -6 +8 +9 -6

I generally have a good idea what the Iraqi government's priorities are.

I do not have a good sense of what the Iraqi government's priorities are.

18 24 18 18 12

74 73 74 78 64

Dissatisfaction with election results, voice to make change I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Generally speaking, I am happy with the outcome of last May's parliamentary

elections. Generally speaking, I am unhappy with the outcome of last May's parliamentary

elections.

22 24 21 20 30

71 70 73 75

31 30 37

62 65 56

The May 2018 election affirms I have a say in the direction of Iraq.

The May 2018 election makes me feel I have little say in the direction of Iraq.

19 17 19 19 21

79 82 78 80 75

Free and fair Not free and fair

Less than 1 in 5 think elections were free and fair This wave: Do you think the May 2018 Iraqi parliamentary elections were mostly free and fair or mostly NOT free and fair?

April question was: Based on what you know, will the anticipated May 2018 Iraqi elections be mostly free and fair or not mostly free and fair?

∆ April ‘18 -19 +23 -20 +21 -18 +22 -25 +29 -12 +17

6 6 5 8

29 29 27 33 45 49

67 68 68 65

Free and fair, strongly Free and fair, somewhat Not free and fair, strongly Not free and fair, somewhat

Baghdad South West Non-KRI WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork 20

Views of fairness of upcoming provincial elections just as poor Based on what you know, will the upcoming provincial elections be mostly free and fair or not mostly free and fair?

WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork21

12 20 21

26 28 30

35 50 51 51 54 58

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Reinstate suspended IHEC commissioners so they can resume their roles

Parliament establishes a new independent IHEC and commissioners

Permanently replace IHEC with judges appointed by the Supreme Judicial Council

Revert to manually counting each ballot

Have the United Nations co-manage IHEC

Form official committee to review fraud, prosecute those found guilty of manipulating results

Continue electronic counting, but use int'l audit company to evaluate the technology

Video record the counting of every ballot

A great deal Somewhat

Now I will read you a list of things that could be done to improve confidence in the results for the upcoming provincial elections. For each, please indicate if that action would increase your trust a great deal, somewhat, just a little, or not at all?

Election reforms focused on counting increases trust

0 10 20 30 40

The Council of Representatives

The Iraqi government

The provincial council

The district council

The Human Rights Commission

The justice system

Trust a lot Trust somewhat

I will now give you a list of institutions. For each, please tell me how much you trust that institution. Do you trust that institution a lot, somewhat, just a little, or not at all?

Low trust in government institutions

∆ April ’18

0 10 20 30 40

Older men Older women

Young men Young women

KRI West

South Baghdad

Total Trust a lot Trust somewhat

I will now give you a list of institutions. For each, please tell me how much you trust that institution. Do you trust that institution a lot, somewhat, just a little, or not at all? (Iraqi government)

Trust in Iraqi government drops in West and South

∆ April ’18

-16 -8

76 82 80

22 17 19 26

Total Baghdad South West KRI Young women

Young men

Older women

Older men

Approve Disapprove

Strong support for protests Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the most recent public protests throughout Iraq?

53 52 59

Total Young women

Young men

Older women

Older men

Very/somewhat effective A little/not effective

Mixed views on effectiveness of protests Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the protests and demonstrations, do you think these protests and demonstrations are a very effective means to influencing the government's actions, somewhat effective, a little effective, or not at all effective in influencing the government's actions?

12 12 10 13 14

85 86 89 83 84

Total Young women

Young men

Older women

Older men

Done enough Not done enough

Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the protests and demonstrations, do you think the politicians in Baghdad have done enough to respond to the demands of the protestors or have not done enough to respond to the demand of the protestors?

Some weakening in security perceptions

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Security)

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Older men

Older women

Young men

Young women

Baghdad

Worse Better

Fewer Iraqis view security as getting better

But security forces continue to be seen as responsive Now I am going to ask about different groups in Iraq. For each one, please tell me how responsive they would be to you if you need help.

46 51 56 54

0 20 40 60 80 100

Peshmerga

Federal police

PMUs from other governorates

PMUs only from your governorate

The Iraqi army

Local police

Very responsive Somewhat responsive ∆ April 18

KRI—90%

0 0 1 1 1 1 2 4 18

0 20 40 60 80

The federal police

The local police

My family or clan members

PMUs from other governorates

Peshmerga

The Iraqi army

PMUs only from your governorate

Other clans

Local criminals

ISIS and other terrorist organizations

ISIS continues to be biggest security concern Based on what you know, which ONE of the following do you feel is the biggest threat to your day to day security?

∆ April 18

KRI Concerns: Local criminals: 44%

ISIS, other terrorist orgs.: 42%

49 50 53 55

23 41 44 50

71 70 74 74 62 69 69 76

Total Baghdad South West KRI Total Baghdad South West KRI

Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned

Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging in your area, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging in your area?

Would you say you are very concerned about violence in your community getting worse over the next 6 months, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about violence in your community getting worse over the next 6 months?

High and growing violence concerns, especially in South

∆ Very/somewhat, April’18

+10 +13 +20 +8 -12 +13 +9 +22 +13 -10

21 18 15 25

33 20 17 18 20

45 40 34 52

45 42 39 43

Total Baghdad South West KRI Total Baghdad South West KRI

Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned

As you know, many people have differing opinions about the PMUs. We want to gain a better understanding of these views. Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the PMUs committing violence?

How concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence? Would you say you are very concerned, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned?

Concerns also increase for PMUs and Army violence

∆ Very/somewhat, April’18

+4 +5 +12 +4 -19 +10 +10 +20 +6 -14

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Worse Better

More say tribal violence getting worse Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Violence between tribes)

Baghdad

0 10 20 30 40

Retribution for ISIS fighters and families

Involvement in illegal activities, such as smuggling

Competition over resources, such as water

Manipulation by armed groups

Manipulation by political parties

Easy access to weapons

Too many jobless youth

Now, to something else. Some say that tension among tribes in some parts of Iraq has increased lately. I am going to read you a list of potential causes of violence between tribes in Iraq. Please tell me which ONE of these do you think is the biggest cause of violence between tribes in Iraq.

Unemployment, access to weapons cause tribal violence

Iraq divided, but not specifically sectarian

68 60 66 63

29 34 32 35 4 0

Total Baghdad South West KRI WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork 35

Large majority see Iraq more divided than unified I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Iraq is mostly a divided country.

Iraq is mostly a unified country. ∆ Apr’18

+18 -18 +17 -20 +21 -20 +19 -19 +4 -3

21 18 18 23 25

56 54 53

Total Baghdad South West KRI WorkingforDemocracyandMakingDemocracyWork 36

Majority feel other components get more services I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

I generally feel that my component gets its fair share of services.

I feel that other components get more services than they should.

∆ April ’18

-3 +1 -4 -4 -5 +10 -7 -1 +6 -11

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Sectarianism

Relations between Sunni and Shia

Sectarianism

Worse Better

Division not on sectarian lines; Sunni-Shia relations seen as improving Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Baghdad

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government.)

Perceptions of relations with KRG slightly improving

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Baghdad

Worse Better ∆ April ‘18 Better

Iraqis and job creation

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Baghdad

Total Worse Better

Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (Job opportunities)

Job opportunities continue to be viewed as worsening

51 50 45

32 34 39

Total Men Women Less than intermediate

Intermediate +

Pluralities want government jobs over private jobs I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

The government should play an active role in increasing jobs in the country by

increasing government jobs. The govt's role should help private sector by creating a coherent legal framework,

eliminating corruption, & boosting spending on infrastructure.

What Iraq needs most right now is more jobs created by the government.

52 51 47

32 33 39

Total Men Women Less than intermediate

Intermediate +

What Iraq needs most right now is more jobs created by private companies and

businesses.

0 20 40 60

Reduce the paperwork needed to create new companies

Incentivize employers to hire more women

Focus on creating jobs outside the oil sector

Establish vocational training centers throughout Iraq

Provide incentives to businesses that hire new employees

Ensure positions are filled on merit, not quota/connections

Create more government jobs

Non-KRI KRI

Now I am going to read you a list of things the next government of Iraq could do to improve the country's employment situation. Please tell me which TWO of these would be most important to improve the country's employment situation?

Focus on government jobs to reduce unemployment

26 24 26 30 20

68 70 67 67 71

24 30 23 23 21

70 65 70 74 71

In public and private sector, you need to know right people I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

You are likely to get a public sector job if you are the most qualified candidate.

You are most likely to get a public sector job if you know the right people.

You are likely to get a private sector job if you are the most qualified candidate.

You are most likely to get a private sector job if you know the right people.

70 70 70 71 66

25 25 24 26 22

69 71 69 71 59

28 26 28 28 28

Bribes and connections for government jobs I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

To get a government job you need to pay a bribe.

To get a government job you usually do not need to pay a bribe.

To get a government job you need to have connections.

To get a government job you usually need to have a strong resume.

Some openness to women rights, but with limits

48 51 62

77 81 71 77

Total Baghdad South West KRI Men Women

Yes, strongly Yes, somewhat

Strong support for “equal rights” for women as a concept Generally speaking, do you think that men and women should have equal rights in Iraq? Yes or no?

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Women's rights (women)

Women's rights (men)

Women's rights (total)

Participation of women in politics

Participation of women in public life

Worse Better

Majority perceive women’s rights as getting worse Now, I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Majority think Iraq stronger with women in workforce Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Iraq would be stronger if more women entered the workforce.

It is not culturally appropriate for women to pursue jobs outside the house.

64 68 62 68 55 57

30 29 32 26 34 37

Total Baghdad South West KRI Urban men Urban women

Rural men Rural women

38 36 40 42 30

55 58 53 54 60 49

Men more resistant to women working when jobs limited Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

If jobs are limited, men should have more of a right to a job.

Both men and women should have an equal opportunity to get most jobs.

42 44 43 35

44 52 51 52

Majority prefer a lesser role for women in government, business I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Women and men should have equal roles in running the government/ businesses and industry.

Men should have a greater role in running the government/business and industry.

Only young women more likely to say they can represent themselves Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Only women can sufficiently represent the interests of women in politics.

Men can sufficiently represent the interests of women in politics.

38 40 35

39 40 38 43

45 50 47 48

Total Baghdad South West KRI Young men

Young women

Older men Older women

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

The party leader

Party's accomplishments

Suggestions from family

The individual candidate

Women Men

When it came time to vote in the May 2018 election, which of the following were the TWO main factors that determined how you voted?

Women twice as likely to vote based on family suggestions

30 31 32 33 33 32 27

15 11 14 10

13 17 13 16

53 52 55 59

53 50 54 56

More blame families than society for holding women back Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and, for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Society as a whole does more to prevent women from achieving more.

Individual families do more to prevent women from achieving more.

Both/Neither

41 50 52

42 54 55 57

66 70 71

92 92 92 94 96

0 20 40 60 80 100

Travel alone wherever and whenever they want

Be part of the Iraqi police

Be a prime minister

Join a political party

Be a minister in the federal government

Marry whomever they want

Work as many hours as they want

Make a higher salary than their husbands

(non-KRI) Run for office in the provincial elections

Run own large business with men & women employees

Run their own business

(KRI) Run for office in KRI

Become a community activist implementing local

Have a government job

Become an advocate for women's rights

Get a university degree

Should be able, strongly Should be able, somewhat

Now I am going to ask you about various things that women in Iraq could do in society and politics. For each one, please tell me if think a woman should be able to do that activity or should a woman not be able to do that activity?

Most resistance to women traveling, in police, as PM

Difference women –men, Able, strongly

+9 +3 +9

+13 +11 +13 +11 +3

+15 +8 +8 +1 +8 +7 +3 +11

39 38 38

0 20 40 60 80 100

Be a prime minister Join a political party

Work as many hours as they want Make a higher salary than their husbands

Young women

Young men

Older women

Older men

Gender divides on salary, work hours, political activities

0 20 40 60 80 100

Travel alone whereever and whenever they want

Be a prime minister

Travel alone whereever and whenever they want

Be a prime minister

Kurds more liberal on women travel, marriage, PM

Non-KRI

iraqis call on the new government for jobs, services, and ... poll - aug-oct 2018...

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