ises 2013 - day 3 - erik haugane (former ceo, det norske oljeselskap) - carbon fuels

Carbon fuel is the ultimate driver for progress for billions of people

Doomsday has again been postponed

Erik Haugane, Det norske

Worrying, worrying, worrying!

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The world is doing increasingly better

3Gapminder.org

2010 2020 20300

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2

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4

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North America

Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific

Africa/Middle East

The standard of living keeps improving

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Bill

ion

peo

ple

Source: McKinsey

1.8 (25%)

3.2

4.9 (55%)

Growing middle class

Shanghai 1980

Shanghai 2010

+270%

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½ second6 hours

Peak oil – nonsense

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Fantastic, but have you considered the consequences for

the climate?

Now, I have finally figured out how to tame the fire and now we can cook

every day.

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Bio fuel

Fossil fuel

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Climate religion

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Anthropogenic greenhouse

effect

Natural variations and solar activity

Warming up:It will be better,

alternatively marginally worse

Climate

Warming up:Hell’s gates are about

to open

Climate change, faster than expected?

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Our glaciers have shortened, but when did it start?

Climate models and reality

Rhetoric and graphics

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Why is the colour of the temperature curve red after 1980?

We’re still living in the coldest 10% period of the last 10 000 years

We’re living in the coldest 5% period of the last 100 mill. years

What is normal?

Any indications that something is going in the wrong direction?

Or merely wishful thinking by enthusiasts embracing catastrophe scenarios?

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• The quest for better lives requires abundant volumes of cheap energy

• Fossil fuel has the smallest footprint on the earth per kwh created

• The effect of potential human impact on climate change does not impress people less fortunate than the upper middle class.

• Exploitation and use of fossil energy needs to be more effective and environmental friendly

Fossil energy sources will dominate also the coming 50 years

BP2013