ises 2013 - day 3 - erik haugane (former ceo, det norske oljeselskap) - carbon fuels

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Carbon fuel is the ultimate driver for progress for billions of people Doomsday has again been postponed Erik Haugane, Det norske

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Page 1: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Carbon fuel is the ultimate driver for progress for billions of people

Doomsday has again been postponed

Erik Haugane, Det norske

Page 2: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Worrying, worrying, worrying!

2

Page 3: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

The world is doing increasingly better

3Gapminder.org

Page 4: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

2010 2020 20300

1

2

3

4

5

North America

Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific

Africa/Middle East

The standard of living keeps improving

4

Bill

ion

peo

ple

Source: McKinsey

1.8 (25%)

3.2

4.9 (55%)

Growing middle class

Shanghai 1980

Shanghai 2010

+270%

Page 5: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

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½ second6 hours

Page 6: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Peak oil – nonsense

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Page 7: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

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Fantastic, but have you considered the consequences for

the climate?

Now, I have finally figured out how to tame the fire and now we can cook

every day.

Page 8: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

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Bio fuel

Fossil fuel

Page 9: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

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Page 10: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Climate religion

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Anthropogenic greenhouse

effect

Natural variations and solar activity

Warming up:It will be better,

alternatively marginally worse

Climate

Warming up:Hell’s gates are about

to open

Page 11: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Climate change, faster than expected?

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Page 12: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Our glaciers have shortened, but when did it start?

Page 13: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Climate models and reality

Page 14: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels
Page 15: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

Rhetoric and graphics

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Why is the colour of the temperature curve red after 1980?

We’re still living in the coldest 10% period of the last 10 000 years

We’re living in the coldest 5% period of the last 100 mill. years

What is normal?

Any indications that something is going in the wrong direction?

Or merely wishful thinking by enthusiasts embracing catastrophe scenarios?

Page 16: ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels

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• The quest for better lives requires abundant volumes of cheap energy

• Fossil fuel has the smallest footprint on the earth per kwh created

• The effect of potential human impact on climate change does not impress people less fortunate than the upper middle class.

• Exploitation and use of fossil energy needs to be more effective and environmental friendly

Fossil energy sources will dominate also the coming 50 years

BP2013