ises 2013 - day 3 - erik haugane (former ceo, det norske oljeselskap) - carbon fuels
TRANSCRIPT
Carbon fuel is the ultimate driver for progress for billions of people
Doomsday has again been postponed
Erik Haugane, Det norske
Worrying, worrying, worrying!
2
The world is doing increasingly better
3Gapminder.org
2010 2020 20300
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2
3
4
5
North America
Europe
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Africa/Middle East
The standard of living keeps improving
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Bill
ion
peo
ple
Source: McKinsey
1.8 (25%)
3.2
4.9 (55%)
Growing middle class
Shanghai 1980
Shanghai 2010
+270%
5
½ second6 hours
Peak oil – nonsense
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Fantastic, but have you considered the consequences for
the climate?
Now, I have finally figured out how to tame the fire and now we can cook
every day.
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Bio fuel
Fossil fuel
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Climate religion
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Anthropogenic greenhouse
effect
Natural variations and solar activity
Warming up:It will be better,
alternatively marginally worse
Climate
Warming up:Hell’s gates are about
to open
Climate change, faster than expected?
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Our glaciers have shortened, but when did it start?
Climate models and reality
Rhetoric and graphics
15
Why is the colour of the temperature curve red after 1980?
We’re still living in the coldest 10% period of the last 10 000 years
We’re living in the coldest 5% period of the last 100 mill. years
What is normal?
Any indications that something is going in the wrong direction?
Or merely wishful thinking by enthusiasts embracing catastrophe scenarios?
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• The quest for better lives requires abundant volumes of cheap energy
• Fossil fuel has the smallest footprint on the earth per kwh created
• The effect of potential human impact on climate change does not impress people less fortunate than the upper middle class.
• Exploitation and use of fossil energy needs to be more effective and environmental friendly
Fossil energy sources will dominate also the coming 50 years
BP2013