it's election year - so what?!

It’s election year – so what?!

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“Voter apathy blamed for declining voter turnout”Dominion Post13 October 2007

Voting isyour right

and your responsibility

NZ voter turnout - % 18+ year olds

Why care about elections?

They provide parliament which provides a government

They give legitimacy to: – Parliament which taxes, spends, permits, compels, confines, monitors government

– Government which manages day to day

– New Zealand as a world citizen

Politicians and parties answer to those who vote

Participation is both a right and a responsibility, but saying this doesn’t make it happen

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Kiwis participating less and some groups well behind

Turnout is high - but trending lower

Young adults are - half of those not enrolled, least likely to vote (each election and by generation), under half aware it’s election year

Maori seats turnout 10-15% less than general

Late enrollers more likely to vote though!

Voter turnout is in decline

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AustraliaNew ZealandGermanyUKCanadaUSA

Election closest to half decade

Voters’ queue in

a new democrac

y

Under 25’s least likely to enrol and vote

% non-enrolled by age range @ 31 Jan '08

0%10%20%30%40%50%

18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

age range

Keisha: “I want to be PM” NZ Herald, 12 March 2008

Less than half know

it’s election year!

Would you let your granny choose

your music ?

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1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

18-24

25 plus

Young people

now less likely to vote than young people

pre-1970

% enrolled not-voting, NZES

Māori identity probably influences roll and voting choices, but not whether to enrol or vote first

Voter turnout - % enrolled

Voter Turnout 2005 - % enrolled

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Lowest in anyelectorate

Highest in a Maorielectorate

Lowest in a generalelectorate

Highest in anyelectorate

Tamaki Makaurau

Tai Tokerau

Mangere

WellingtonCentral

New Zealand analysis – Jack Vowles, NZ Election Study

Clear generational patterns, related to competitiveness between Labour and National

Those born since 1974 are 20-30 % less likely to vote in first few elections than those born pre 1935

Some contributing factors are:– Lower sense of civic duty – strongest effect– Lower interest in politics – moderate effect– Lower voting age – (less social cohesion when first vote)

MMP has lifted turnout by average 4%, 8% for post 1975’ers

Non-voters we know

Let’s build a profile of some actual or likely non-voters we know

Then we’ll relate them to what we know about why people do and don’t join in with elections

Habit, competition, connectedness and belief encourage participation

Voting’s a habit, best acquired young

A close race boosts turnout

Being connected also helps

Voting’s even more likely if you believe any of: politics is interesting, participating can make a difference, and it’s easy

Efficacy = participation

People’s belief in their own ability to:– know what is going on

– be heard

– make a difference politically

It is state of mind, a habit and a self-fulfilling prophecy

Correlates with involvement and voting

Young more likely to have lower efficacy, particularly professed interest or perception of ease

Best built through personal experience

Low efficacy often expressed as

‘politics is boring / has nothing to do with me’

‘they don’t listen to us’ ‘it’s too complicated’ ‘no one sent me an

enrolment form’ / ‘I don’t know where to go to vote’

‘I don’t want to look stupid’

‘politics isn’t cool’ ‘the car doesn’t go there’ ‘I haven’t in the past so

why start now’ ‘it’s for adults’

Increasing political efficacy

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HHH LHH HLH HHL HLL LHL LLH LLLPolitical efficacy combinations: interesting, voting impacts, easy

%

% voters minus % non-votersabove the line means more votersbelow the line means more non-voters

Efficacy and younger voters

% under

30

% under

30 not vote

HHH 22 4

LHH 5 0

HLH 4 4

HHL 20 24

HLL 6 8

LHL 29 24

LLH 0 0

LLL 14 36

MOTIVATION Higher

KNOWLEDGE Lower

KNOWLEDGE Higher

MOTIVATION Lower

Young non-voter segments

Confident and Convinced

TentativeTriers

Distrustful and Disillusioned

Living for the Weekend

Politically Absent

Expressions of the SegmentsCONFIDENT AND CONVINCED

“I definitely could change things if I wanted to. I’d post polls, I’d kick off a referendum, I’d visit my local MP, I’d

be more vocal, I’d write in”

POLITICALLY ABSENT“It’s not that I don’t care, its more that I’m not interested.

I’ve got my own life to think about. Nothing is harming me at the moment… It doesn’t make a difference to my life... I don’t

think there’s anything anyone could say to make me vote”

DISTRUSTFUL AND DISILLUSIONED“It’s not worth voting for any of them. There

isn’t a good choice. Nothing will change”

TENTATIVE TRIERS“Everyone seems to have, like

made up their mind and I haven’t”

LIVING FOR THE WEEKEND“We live for the here and now…

rather than what’s going to happen 10 years down the track

or 5 years down the track”

Confident and Convinced Underlying commitment to political and electoral participation. However commitment

is shallow and behaviour not entrenched

Tentative TriersStrong desire for political and electoral participation, but held back

by lack of confidence and key skills. Weak, fearful relationship with politics

Living for the Weekend

Distrustful and Disillusioned

Politics and politicians provide a focus for frustration around the struggleto stay afloat. Rejecting political system provides a sense of control and superiority

Politically Absent

In the absence of any political literacy or electoral participation norms, voting is meaningless or off the radar

Voting is irrelevant – it assumes a long range view, whereas LFW have only an immediate view. Political engagement competes with “my life and lifestyle”

Some non/voter examples

“Principled”non-voter18-year-old ‘Grown Into It’ MigrantActive and engaged

‘Principled’ non-voter

I’m confident in my understanding of politics

Voting won’t change anythingI don’t trust “the government”There are other, more effective ways to make a difference than voting

Politics is all global now. The New Zealand government can’t have any impact on the issues I care about.

All the government does these days is stop me from doing things

18-year-old

Voting is my rightElections are a chance to make a difference

Politics is important, but scaryPolling places are scaryCan’t decide who to vote forPolitics – nah, don’t do politicsPolitics – that’s what adults doNone of my mates talk about it, so I don’t either

‘Grown Into It’

I wasn’t into it when I was 18 but now I am

Politics is important, but a bit dauntingIt’s good we can voteElections are a chance to make a difference

I’m 35 now and I don’t want to admit to anyone that I don’t know what to do

It’s so hard to decide who to vote forMy new partner is politically active and is “making” me vote

Migrant

I want to take part in my new country Elections can make a difference for migrants

I don’t understand New Zealand politics at all

Politics is dangerous where I come fromI feel uncomfortable talking about politics

I’ve always voted the same party, but can’t find an equivalent here

Active and engaged voter

I’m confident in my understanding of politics

Politics affects me. I talk about it. I do it.

Voting is my right and my responsibility so I’m going to use it

Elections are a chance to make a difference

Nothing would stop me from votingEveryone should vote, it’s easyEvery vote counts

The problem of …

Declining voter turnoutPeople not ‘switching on’ to politics

… is real… is now… needs action

The response

It’s easy to enrol decide vote

Andreasen’s ‘Stages of Change’ model is commonly

used in social marketing frameworks

PREPARATION

MAINTENANCE

ACTION

In many cases, only a small proportion of the target audience is ready for action-oriented interventions, and focus needs to be directed to moving people out of the earlier stages

CONTEMPLATION

PRECONTEMPLATION Haven’t even thought about it

Thinking about it

I’ve enrolledDeciding who to vote

for

Voting

Going to keep voting in future

Population behaviour change model says we all have a role

For a population to adopt and maintain a desired behaviour the following are needed:

appropriate policy designappropriate institutional design strong community actionindividual skillsa supportive social environment

Youth, Maori, Pacific, migrant, disability focused programmes

Stakeholder roadshowFace-to-face peer-to-peer enrolmentAdvertising and public relations initiatives

Multiple languages and formatsEducation resources and teacher education

Journalism educationwww.elections.org.nz www.ivotenz.org.nz

Sources

Elections New Zealand website www.elections.org.nz – Teaching and research centre

“Voting’s a habit best formed early” Franklin, Mark. (2004). Voter turnout

and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

“Connectedness motivates" Putnam, Robert (2000) Bowling Alone, New

York: Simon & Schuster

Sources

Population Behavioural Change - Ottawa Charter for Public Health, WHO.

Individual Behavioural Change - Andreasen, A. (1995). Marketing social change. San Francisco, Jossey-Bass.

New Zealand Election Study www.nzes.com