jackie robinson george silk, time & life pictures · 12/31/2010  · jackie robinson george...

George Silk, Time & Life Pictures JACKIE ROBINSON

JOE CARTER

SPORTS.CA.MSN.COM

National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre

National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre

Photo: Washington Post

BUNT

GREAT DEFENSE!

RUN

STEAL +

MICHAEL LEWIS

$0.7M

$68.6M

96 WINS

$1.6M

$118.2M

74 WINS

$2.7M

$229.0M

85 WINS

JOHN BOGLE

$100,000 @ 7%/annually / 2% fee

INVESTOR

FEES

$761,226

$1,497,446

$2.945,703

43%

53%

61%

$196,715 $386,968

17% 31%

30yrs 40yrs 50yrs 10yrs 20yrs

WON

51

LOST

111

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

Taylor Glenn Photographs

CASH

CDN STOCKS

SMALL CAP

BONDS EMERGING

U.S.

INT’L STOCKS

DEFAULT

GIC

REAL ESTATE

COMMODITIES

65%

40%

11%

35% 20%

4%

1980 1991 2013

Cash

Publicly -traded Commodities

Natural Resources

Real Estate

Inflation-Indexed Bonds

High Yield

Foreign Bonds

Domestic Bonds

Absolute Return

Private Equity

Emerging Market Equities

Foreign Equities

Domestic Equities

DATA: HARVARD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, INC.

POLICY PORTFOLIO EVOLUTION

3 6 13

DIVERSIFICATION

$1 $5 $9 $15 $44 $115 $160 $341

$550

$1,100

$3,700

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2017E 2020E

GROWTH

Source: Vanguard, Cerulli Associates, Investment Companies Institute, Casey Quirk Analysis

DC AUM 48%

$7.7 trillion

DC AUM 12.5%

$4.4 trillion Targ

et D

ate

Fun

d A

sset

s ($

billi

ons

US

D)

TARGET-DATE FUND ASSETS

Target Date Retirement Fund >55% Equities

Ret

irem

ent

45 Y

ears

40 Y

ears

35 Y

ears

25 Y

ears

20 Y

ears

15 Y

ears

10 Y

ears

5 Y

ears

30 Y

ears

Intl

Equ

ities

F

ixed

Inco

me

Sho

rt T

erm

N

A E

quiti

es

TARGET-DATE FUND

Source: DC Connections, Mercer, January 2012

CASE STUDY

ACTUAL RISK

COMPOSITE GLIDE PATH

51.2%

89.9%

December 31, 1970 – December 31, 2010

TARGET-DATE FUND

TECHNOLOGY/S&P 500

S&P 500 VOLATILITY

1990 2000 2002 Source: PŮR Investing Inc.

3.00%

8.00%

13.00%

18.00%

23.00%

TECHNOLOGY BUBBLE TECHNOLOGY

S&P VOLATILITY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: PŮR Investing Inc.

CORPORATE BONDS/ U.S. TREASURIES

MARK MCGWIRE

CREDIT CRISIS

S&P VOLATILITY

Hypothetical 10 years to Dec/2012 S&P 500 CONSTANT RISK

Return -1.1% 4.9%

Risk 26.3 15.1

2000 2003 2006 2009

Source: PŮR Investing Inc.

CONSTANT RISK

TED WILLIAMS

BALANCED 60:40

TARGET DATE FUND

DYNAMIC CR

97%

52%

37%

B

WINNING GLIDE PATH

TAR

GE

T C

AP

ITA

L

RISK

C

A

Source: PŮR Investing Inc.

CAPITAL ACCUMULATION PATH (EST)

What

15.6%

10.7%

10.0%

6.6%

5.5%

ALL STOCKS

BALANCED 60/40

TARGET DATE FUNDS

ALL BONDS

DYNAMIC CR

RISK! 5 YEARS BEFORE RETIREMENT

INFORMATION ASSYMETRY

ADVISOR

COST-EFFECTIVE DIVERSIFICATION

LOW FEES

TRANSPARENCY

PROCESS NOT PERFORMANCE

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

Photo: Washington Post

National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre