j.d. power ev: sales & pricing in the us

J.D. POWER

EV: SALES & PRICING IN THE USTyson JominyVice President, Data & Analytics

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EV THESISThe industry sells three very distinct EV

classes that stem from unique

philosophies for technology, marketing,

technology, styling and pricing

One is currently winning in the US, but

long-term success requires all three

approaches

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EV 1.0The original EV concept tracing back to the GM EV1, butofficially began in December 2010 with Nissan Leaf. Bestselling example is Chevrolet Bolt

EV 1.0 is identified by body type, typically a no-frills entryhatchback with an electric powertrain

Many entries have adapted existing vehicle platforms tohit aggressive price points at low end of market

These price targets often required compromises onbattery technology, so range can be limited

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EV sales started slowly as the industry worked out its approach

US Retail Share

0.1%0.1%

0.4%

0.4% 0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Tesla Model SMost Likely to Succeed

Tesla Model XWe’re fraternal

Nissan LEAFOldest and wisest

Fiat 500eOff to Europe

Chevrolet SparkShoulda been nicer to me

BMW i3Never leaving this place

Volkswagen GolfClass comedian

Kia SoulA kind and gentle…

Ford FocusMissed your chance

MB B-ClassToo unique for this world

Smart fortwoToo smart for my own good

Mitsubishi i-MiEVSee you guys never

CongratulationsEV CLASS OF2016MY

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EV 2.0The dominant EV philosophy in the US auto industry.Introduced with Tesla Model S. Best selling example isTesla Model 3

EV 2.0 is identified by style and technology. Premiumbrands market electric powertrains’ performance andthe high prices enable sophisticated technology and verylong range

Vehicle platforms are EV dedicated with unique brandsand models that are flagship products for the automaker

Technological gains are expected to trickle downthroughout lineup

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Launch of Model 3 changed EV sales trajectory in the US

0.1% 0.1%

0.4%0.4% 0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

1.4%

1.7%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Model 3 instantly doubled EV retail share

Rest of EVs Retail Share

Model 3 Retail Share

0.5%0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

0.0%

0.9%

1.0%

0.5%

0.7%

1.4%

1.7%

2016 2017 2018 2019

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While Non-Tesla entries struggled for marketplace acceptance

Annual Retail

Sales per

Non-Tesla EV

entry

(Entries)

8,170

2,600

4,7884,303 4,119

3,067

4,0523,788 3,910

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(1) (4) (7) (11) (10) (12) (15) (13) (16)

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EV 3.0Where the industry needs to land to drive mass adoptionof EVs. Ford F-150 Lightning may be the turning point,but Ford Mustang Mach-E and VW ID.4 are alreadyadvancing the segment

EV 3.0 is identified by a mainstream segment approach,targeting the highest volume mainstream segments withmodels for the average consumer

The largest seven segments in the industry have beenmostly absent from EV gains. Targeting this space will becritical to EVs gaining traction in the US

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New products are driving EV growth

1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

2.2%

1.1% 1.2%1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%

0.0%

0.2%

0.7%

1.0%1.3%

1.2%1.6%

1.7% 1.7% 1.7%1.6%

2.2%

1.3%

1.9%

2.5%

2.8%

2.6%

2.9%

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21

Model Y

Mustang Mach-E

ID.4

All other EVs

(incl Model 3)

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By offering consumers the type of vehicles they want to buy

12%

18%

64%

51%53%

57%

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21

SUV Mix of EV Sales

SUV Mix of All Other

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$35.0k$32.8k

$22.1k$20.1k

$18.0k

$14.9k

$21.4k

$24.9k

$31.8k

$40.1k

$42.9k

$28.3k $28.6k $29.4k $30.1k $30.8k $31.3k $31.8k $32.6k$33.8k

$35.9k

$39.3k

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021YTD

Transaction prices rebounded by giving people what they want

EV prices up

$11.2k in ‘21 YTD

since ‘19

EV 1.0 prices

much lower than

ICE prices

Non-Tesla

EV Prices

ICE Prices

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EV 87% 82% 82% 84% 66% 47% 43% 54% 41%

ICE 24% 26% 28% 30% 29% 30% 30% 28% 25%

+63

+57+54 +54

+37

+17

+13

+27

+17

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD

Sales no longer require extreme incentive tactics

EV 1.0 saw

largest disparity

in leasing

EV 2.0 and 3.0

saw a change to

less leasing closer

to ICE

EV Lease Percentage o/(u) ICE

(ppts)

Note:

Lease Mix

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0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD

EV retail share varied across generations

Gen X

Millennial

Boomer

Gen Z

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EV growth in the US now strongest ever

0.1% 0.1%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%

0.7%

1.4%

1.7%

2.0%

2.8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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…. And the EV 3.0 story is just beginning

EV Mix of Top Mainstream Segments (Sept YTD)

0.0%

1.9%

1.3%

0.0%

1.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.7%

Midsize SUV

Compact SUV

Small SUV

Large Pickup - Light

Compact Car

Midsize Car

Midsize Pickup

Top Seven Segments

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WHAT’S NEXTAfter achieving full market acceptance with the biggestmainstream segments in EV 3.0, the industry will againfocus on EV 1.0

This time the products will resonate with consumers andEVs will be more accessible to less affluent consumers ina vehicle without compromises

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