archive.computerhistory.orgarchive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2013/04/1027232… ·...
Post on 15-Apr-2020
8 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Dataqyest aaimpanyof ltieDun& Bfadstrect Corporation
Jeff Hart Berkeley Roundtable of the Int'l Economy
Oaryl Hatanio
Rich Helfrttih
Richard Hort»n
Frank Jalenko
Theo Janssen
Bob Jenkins
Michio Katsamata
Valerie Kisak
Mike Kubiak
Ken Kunitomo
Robert Lakin
Daniel Lankford
K-. Y. Lee
Jane Locke-Alford
Eric Lundquist
Steve Maine
Mike Manier
J. Daniel McGr jinie
Clem Meas
David Mehlhoff
Beatrice Montamedi
Lissa liorgenthaler
Mike Murphy
Cy Musiker
Gene Norrett
Semiconductor Industry Association
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Ramtron Corporation
NEC Corporation
3M Company
Motorola, Inc.
Japan Financial Daily
Northern Telecoin Electronic^ Inc.
Advanced Micro Pevlces, Inc.
NEC Corporation
Tandem Computers, Inc.
AT&T
Acer Incorporated
Semiconductor Industry Associa'^^^^
Electronic Buyers' News.
Microchip Technologfy Inc.
Journal of Commerce
Seeq Technology, Inc.
Silicon Compiler Systems Corp. •.
Shinko Electric America, Inc.
UPI
California Technology Letter
California Technology l etter
CBS News Business Update
Dataquest Incorporated
:4H.
-ntJtisTv
Dataquesf Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Pari? Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Bruce Norton
William O'Meara
Joe O'Neill
Paul Ortiz
Matthew Panarese
Jim Patella
Pat Patterson
Chris Peterson
Andrew A. Procassini
Richard Quinnell
Kris Rallapalli
Ted Reed
Valerie Rice
Peter Richmond
J. Daniel Robertson
Matt W. Sagal
George M. Scalise
Monte Seifers
Clysta Seney
Greg Sheppard
lice Silis
Peter Silverman
Bob Starr
Robert Stavers
Roger Steciak
m-
^'.rriv
jir.
V 9Zr:l:
•3C:'lC-
1 )L'llS.'f,
IfTit.
Information Handing Services * .-•r.BmJDJ.
G-2 Incorporated
Gould, Inc. ..! „„
Seeq Technology, Inc. ^ ^ .
Wells Fargo
NCR Corporation
Industry Week .
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc. n-- ' •
Semiconductor Industry Association
EDN Magazine
Raytheon Corporation
Sacramento Bee ^ •
Electronic Business News
Advanced Micro Devices, Jfnc.
3Com Corporation
AT&T
Maxtor Corporation , , •,
Northern Telecom Electronic^ Inc.
Silicon Systems, Inc. ^ ;
Dataquest Incorporated ,_,
Wells Fargo
MemTech Technology Co^rporartion
Yamaha Systems Technology Division
Coopers & Lybrand
Dataquest Incorporated
. 1 / : .
. Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & B r a d ^ r ^ ^^^irgpration 1290 Ridder ^|rl< Drive. San Jose, C^ 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Tel??t 17^^37 FaX: (^).43^^292
Nancy Steid^mahn
Winifred Steil
Frank Stempski
Anthea Stratigos
Rodney Stubbs
Rahul Sud
Brian Sullivan
, c. -1 -I ••> c'lsmA Jay Sullivan
James M. Summers
John Taft
Chuck Thompson
Tom Thornhill
Mike Tyler
Jack Van Den Heuvel
Jean Claude Vrignaud
Don Watters
Jeffrey A. Wellington
Jon Wellman^^'""^ *'''
Suellen Whit£
Loring Wirbel
B i l l Wirth
Vincent Wohil^Witer^
Anthony D. Wut^ta '
Won Yang
•TiS
Feature News Service
AT&T
ICI Array Technology
Dataquest Incorporated
PlanTek
Microchip Technology Inc.
ZyMOS Corporation
McKinsey & Company, Inc.
AT&T
Coopers & Lybrand
Silicon General Corporation f , . . . . '••
Shearson Lehman Button Research
i
Dataquest Incorporated
Raytheon Corporation
Rockwell International Corporation
I -A '-
McKinsey & Company, Inc.
Bank of Boston
Coopers & Lybrand
Information Handing Services ;• 1 e n q ^ " : .
Electronic Engineering Times
LSI Logic Corporation
AT&T
' t' '• r'.
IBM Corporation ;. -i ;.
Samsung Semiconductors, Inc.
ZX.I-
r, vP
^ ^ Tncdifporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstree« Corporation ^2^6Mder Park DM. Sdff dose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DataQuest n n a company of tfgf The Dun & Bradstreet corporation
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION SEMINAR September 29, 1988 Santa Clara Marriott
List of Attendees
3Com Corporation J. Daniel Robertson, Vice President, Manufacturing
3M Company Theo Janssen, Sales Specialist
AT&T Daniel Lankford, Director, Market Management Matt W. Sagal, Vice President, International Marketing Winifred Steil, Manager, Strategic Marketing James M. Summers, Market Management Director Vincent Wohlheiter, Product Marketing Director
Acer Incorporated K. Y. Lee, Vice President
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Curt Francis, Vice President, Strategic Planning
Rich Helfrich, Manager Mike Kubiak, Director, Investor Relations Peter Richmond, Manager
Alpha Partners Brian J. Grossi, General Partner
Apple Computer, Inc. Allan Alcorn, Apple Fellow
Arthur Andersen & Company David Clements, Partner
Bank of Boston Jeffrey A. Wellington, Vice President
1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
Bank of the West Thomas A. Hannen, Assistant Vice President
Berkeley Roundtable of the Int'l Round table Jeff Hart, Professor
Borg-Warner Chemicals Barbara Arnold, Market Development Specialist
Burr, Egan, Deleage & Company Shirley Cerrudo, Partner
CBS News Business Update Cy Musiker, Reporter
Cahners Publications Elizabeth Baatz
California Technology Letter Lissa Morgenthaler, Editor Mike Murphy, Editor
Cirrus Logic, Inc. George Alexy, Vice President, Marketing
Communications Week Tim Haight, West Coast Bureau Chief
Coopers & Lybrand Robert Stavers, Partner John Taft, Partner Jon Wellman, Manager
Data Business Publishing Brian Franklin, Publisher
Dataquest Incorporated Terrance Birkholz, Research Analyst Ronald Bohn, Research Analyst Shirley Cahn, Conference Assistant Patricia Cox, Manager, Information Services
Maureen Davies, Conference Assistant Mark Giudici, Product Manager Gene Norrett, Corporate Vice President and Division General Manager Greg Sheppard, Senior Industry Analyst Roger Steciak, Senior Industry Analyst Anthea Stratigos, Group Director Mike Tyler, Director, Graphics and Imaging Service
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
EDN Magazine Richard Quinnell, Regional Editor
Electronic Business News Valerie Rice, Associate Editor
Electronic Buyers' News Gavin Bourne, Editor Eric Lundquist, Editor
Electronic Engineering Times Loring Wirbel, Reporter
Electronic News Jim Detar, Correspondent
Electronic Purchasing Magazine Marc Elliott, Associate Editor
Feature News Service Nancy Steidtmann, Correspondent
Fujitsu Microelectronics, Inc. William K. Conway, Director, Advanced Planning Admistration
G-2 Incorporated
Gould, Inc.
William O'Meara, President
Joe O'Neill, Vice President, Sales and Marketing
Hewlett-Packard Company Ken Cotter, Product Marketing Engineer
IBM Corporation Dennis W. Andrews, Assistant General Manager Anthony D. Wutka, Advisory Engineer
ICI Array Technology Frank Stempski, Marketing Manager
Industry Week Pat Patterson, Editor
Information Handing Services Bruce Norton Suellen White
Dataque^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Intel Corporation Alan Allan, Marketing Manager Joe Altnether, Senior Product Marketing Engineer
Japan Financial Daily Michio Katsumata, Chief Correspondent
Journal of Commerce Mike Manier
Ketchum Public Relations Rob Gelphman, Senior Account Executive
Koltron Corporation G. D. Bucci, President and Chief Executive Officer
LSI Logic Corporation Jim Boswell, Marketing Manager Bill Wirth, Director, Component Technology Marketing
Linear Technology Corporation William Ehrsam, Vice President, Marketing
Maxtor Corporation George M. Scalise, President, Chief Executive Officer
McKinsey & Company, Inc. Jay Sullivan, Assistant to the Director Don Watters, Director
MemTech Technology Corporation Peter Silverman, Vice President, Engineering
Microchip Technology Inc. Steve Maine, Vice President, Business Development Rahul Sud, Vice President, Marketing
Micron Technology, Inc. Gene H. Cloud, Marketing Manager
Mitsubishi Electronics America, Inc. Dwain Aidala, Vice President, Marketing Chris Peterson, Strategic Marketing Manager
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Motorola, Inc. James Gradoville, Manager, International Trade Programs Bob Jenkins, Corporate Vice President and Director, Sector Technology
NCR Corporation
NEC Corporation
Jim Patella, Marketing Engineer
Frank Jalenko, Vice President, Strategic Planning
Ken Kunitomo, Director, Corporate Planning Group
National Westminister Bank USA Linda K. Brown, Assistant Vice President
Northern Telecom Electronics Inc. Valerie Kisak, Manager, Industry Economics Monte Seifers, Director, External Business
Octel Communications Corporation Robert Cohn, President and Chief Executive Officer
Perkin-Elmer Corporation Michael Archuletta, Director, Marketing
PlanTek Larry Campbell, Senior Vice President Rodney Stubbs, President
Prometrix Corporation Richard Elkus, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ramtron Corporation David Bondurant, Director, Marketing Richard Horton, President
Raytheon Corporation Kris Rallapalli, Marketing Strategic Planning Manager Jack Van Den Heuvel, Product Marketing Manager
Rockwell International Corporation Jean Claude Vrignaud, General Manager, European Operation
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Sacramento Bee Ted Reed, Reporter
Samsung Semiconductors, Inc. Won Yang, Vice President
Security Pacific Capital Corporation Jeff Brown, Senior Investment Analyst
Seeq Technology, Inc. J. Daniel McCranie, President and Chief Executive Officer Paul Ortiz, Vice President, International Sales
Semiconductor Industry Association Doug Andrey, Manager, Industry Statistical Programs Warren Davis, Vice President Daryl Hatano, Director, International Trade and Government Affairs Jane Locke-Alford, Director, Communications Andrew V. Procassini, President
Shearson Lehman Button Research Tom Thornhill, Senior Vice President
Shinko Electric America, Inc. David Mehlhoff, Marketing Manager
Silicon Compiler Systems Corp. Clem Meas, Vice President, Marketing and Sales
Silicon General Corporation Chuck Thompson, Executive Vice President
Silicon Systems, Inc. Clysta Seney, Director, Corporate Planning
Siliconix Incorporated Tom Hardy, Vice President, IC Business Unit
Standard Microsystems Corporation Jim Christophersen, Manager, Strategic Planning
Tandem Computers, Inc. Robert Lakin, Director, Strategy
Dataquest Irxjorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Tatung Science and Technology, Inc. Kam Chan, President, Local Branch
Texas Instruments, Inc. David Bartek, Strategic Marketing Manager, Linear Products
Toshiba America, Inc. Roger Childers, Product Marketing Manager
UPI Beatrice Montamedi, Correspondent
Wells Fargo Skip Dusseau, Vice President and Manager Matthew Panarese, Assistant Vice President lice Silis, Vice President
Yamaha Systems Technology Division Bob Starr, National Sales and Marketing Manager
ZyMOS Corporation Dave Handorf, President and Chief Executive Officer Brian Sullivan, Vice President, Marketing
Dafaquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DataQuest acompanyof The Dun&l^adstrctf ONpor^HMi
DataQuest ' n ' n a company of IBM TheDun&BradstreetCorporation
INTRODUCTION AND WELCOME
Manny A. Fernandez President and CEO Dataquest Incorporated
is President and CEO of Dataquest. Under his leadership, increased its products and services, expanded its overseas
and earned record revenue and profits. Mr. Fernandez has been in high-technology industries for the past 18 years. Prior to the presidency of Dataquest, he founded the company's Strategic Service, which provides vital decision-making support for CEOs
of high-technology companies. Before joining Dataquest, Mr. Fernandez was President and CEO of Gavilan Computer Corporation, President and CEO of Zilog, Inc., and Group Vice President of Fairchild Camera and Instrument Corporation. Mr. Fernandez received B.S. and M.S. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the University of Florida.
Mr. Fernandez Dataquest has coverage, involved assuming Executive
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
|a23a6O0t.lMG 07/11/99:PeD|
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Markets for Semiconductors
^ % ^ \ ^ "
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
MANNY A. FERNANDEZ
President and CEO Dataquest Incorporated
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DataQuest a company of The Dun& Brad^icct Corpor^un
DataQuest «>«> a company of l i a l The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
INTRODOCTION AND WELCOME
Andrew A. Procassini President Semiconductor Industry Association
Dr. Procassini is President of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the trade organization that represents U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturers. Prior to becoming SIA President, Dr. Procassini served semiconductor firms in senior management positions in the areas of quality and reliability assurance, operations, sales, and marketing, and in the international arena. He has held major posts in the semiconductor divisions of Motorola and Fairchild. He also cofounded and served as President of Micro Circuit Electronics. Dr. Procassini received a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan, a master's degree in Economics from Arizona State University, and a doctorate in Business Administration from Nova University.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
IBa306<»g.lMO 07/lWa«:5g51
] I Seizing Opportunities of Change: ] I Strategic Electronic Markets
for Semiconductors
x y > ANDREW A. PROCASSINt
President Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DataQuest acompaiwoF I 1 K Dun CBradstrcet Corporabon
DataQuest w a n a company oF I B M The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
DATAQUEST ELECTRONICS OOTLOOK
Anthea Stratigos Director Semiconductor User and Applications Group Dataquest Incorporated
Ms. Stratigos is Director of Dataquest's Semiconductor User and Applications Group. She is responsible for developing and managing research on semiconductor purchasing trends and related semiconductor consumption based on a demand or from an end-market perspective. The main focus of the group's research is to provide semiconductor users and manufacturers with information that better equips them to address buying and selling issues. Prior to joining Dataquest, Ms. Stratigos worked in Information Development at IBM Corporation's Santa Teresa Laboratory, where she documented software products for IBM's mainframe systems. Ms. Stratigos holds a B.A. degree in Communication from Stanford University.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
IBgSaSOOO.IMG 07/11/M:0eD]
i^ 'V^
^%^\J
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Marlcets for Semiconductors
DATAQUEST ELECTRONICS OUTLOOK ANTHEA STRATIGOS
Director Semiconductor User and Applications Group
Dataquest incorporated
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
12400001.IMG O-J Za/BB STRI
AGENDA
• The boom/bust cycles
• Electronic markets outlook
• Users and their issues
1B24C00O2.IMG 0Offi3ftlH:STR|
THE BOOM/BUST CYCLES Comparison of Semiconductor Consumption
and Electronic Equipment Production
Percent Change Year to Year
50 40 30 20 10 0
-10 -20 -30 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990
Souice: Oataquest
ft
"mg •tr
#?-
__
Semiconductpr Consumption
^ ^ y S V W ^ , J „„mi||| III!
i • Y
^ .
,HIIIIIIHIIIIIIIIIIIltl|| %iM
J. 0
if^M
'Electronic Equipment" .Production
h 4^-m • t •#
^ ' '55gSp'""ff l^
1988 Oataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Oataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
102400015.IMG 0U/23/B8:STR|
THE BOOM/BUST CYCLES Current Actual versus Target
Semiconductor Inventory Levels (All OEMs)
June Aug, Oct. Dec. Feb. April June Aug. 1987 4- 1988
Source: Dataquest
|B24<iOOI6 IMG 0!V23;Ba:STn |
THE BOOM/BUST CYCLES Current Actual versus Target
Semiconductor Inventory Levels (Computer OEMs)
Days
4b
40
35
30
25
on
^^MHStj^M
/ IW ! 3 ? ^ '
^^^H^vgrS
BHW
'aK ^^H^H^^^^m^ ^^pr ^TB-
P^^^ Current Actual E M I Target
• " < * * • • - . . . . /
June Aug. Oct. 1987 —
Dec. Feb. April June Aug. 4^ 1988
Souice: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
182400003.IMG 0MZ3iti»STR^
ELECTRONICS MARKETS OUTLOOK Estimated Worldwide Electronics Production
Application Market
Data Processing
Communications
Industrial
Consumer
Military
Transportation
mm MBgJta ED
1987 1988 1989
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Billions of Dollars Souice: Dataquest
IB24CU0U4.IMG OttZUmSTRj
ELECTRONICS MARKETS OUTLOOK Estimated North American Electronics Production
Application Market
Data Processing
Communications
Industrial
Consumer
Military
Transportation
50 75
Billions of Dollars Source: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
[B240000S.IMG 0D/23/aa:STn I
ELECTRONICS MARKETS OUTLOOK Estimated Japanese Electronics Production
Application Market
Data Processing
Communications
Industrial
Consumer
Military
Transportation V,V-|j,|Ajk|.|W
S 1987 S 1988 EHD 1989
20 40 60
Billions of Dollars
80 100
Source; Daiaquesi
IMQ ftJ«3;BttSTR|
ELECTRONICS MARKETS OUTLOOK Estimated European Electronics Production
Application Market
Data Processing |
Communications
Industrial
Consumer
Military
Transportation
10 20 30
Billions of Dollars
40
Source: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstre^ Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
182400007. IMG 0W23/aa:STHJ
ELECTRONICS MARKETS OUTLOOK Estimated ROW Electronics Production
Application Market
Data Processing
Communications
Industrial
Consumer
Military
Transportation
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 20 30 40 Billions of Dollars
50 60
Souice: Daiaquest
I24G0014IMG 0'J 2afB« STfl I
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
Working Partnerships Are Crucial
• Users need to: - Protect market - Access technology " Control costs
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Oataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corpxsration 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|24GOOaeiMG CK¥23/a8.5TR I
WHERE THE GROWTH ISN'T -FASTEST-SHRINKING LARGE MARKETS
Estimated U.S. Revenue (Billions of Dollars)
Segment
5.25" Flexible Disl< Drives Alphanumeric Display Terminals Modems Line Printers 8- to 10.5" Rigid Disk Drives Electronic Typewriters 1/2" Tape Drives
1988 1989 CAGR
$1.3 $3.0 $1.2 $1.4 $3.4 $2.4 $2.4
$1.1 $2.7 $1.1 $1.3 $2.8 $2.3 $2.3
(15%) (11%)
(7%) (4%)
(18%) (5%) (2%)
Souice: Dataquest
l24Gti00'J.lMG 0<J/23f88:STn t
WHERE THE GROWTH IS -FASTEST-GROWING LARGE MARKETS
Segment
Processing Terminals Optical Disk Drives Electronic Publishing 3- to 4-in. Disk Drives Workstations Manufacturing Network! LAN Connections Cellular Radio
Estimated U.S. Revenue (Billions of Dollars)
1988
0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 1.9
5 0.7 2.4 3.6
1992
1.0 3.0 6.6
14.2 4.8 1.7 5.4 7.9
CAGR 1988-1992
86.7% 61.8% 42.2% 39.5% 25.6% 23.9% 22.4% 21.9%
Souice: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
I24IMW10IMG 0i¥23f8B:STR I
USERS AND THEIR ISSUES
Fastest-Growing Large Market Participants
Segment Companies
Workstations
Manufacturing Networks
LAN Connections
Cellular Radio
1. Sun 2. Apollo 3. Digital
1. Digital 2. Foxboro 3. Allen-Bradley
1. Digital 2. 3Com a Novell
1. AT&T 2. Motorola 3. NTI/GE
Soufce: Dataquest
I24G0011IMG 0(ygyM:STRl
USERS AND THEIR ISSUES
Fastest-Growing Large Market Participants
Segment Companies
Processing Terminals
Optical Disk Drives
Electronic Publishing
3- to 4-in. Disk Drives
1. Novell 2. 3Com 3. TeleVideo
1. Philips 2. Hitachi 3. Sony
1. Interleaf 2. Frame Technologies 3. Xyvision
1. Miniscribe 2. IBM 3. Tandon
Souice: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
[24Guoi2.ii>«G ocy23>aa'!sTR]
USERS AND THEIR ISSUES
The Major Issues
1987
Pricing Availability/lead times Quality/reliability On-time delivery FMVs/trade agreement Cost control JIT/inventory control Surface mount New products/obsolescence ASICs Offshore manufacturing
and procurement
1988
Availability/lead times/shortages Pricing On-time delivery Cost control Memories Quality/reliability Reducing vendor base New products/obsolescence JIT/inventory control Fluctuating yen/currency exchange
|g4Cooi3iMG oafzyaaSTBl
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
Conclusions
• Users expect continued growth in purchases • Availability, lead times, and shortages
are critical issues • Closer vendor/buyer connections may temper
the cycle • The shift offshore may be slowing • Cost control and manufacturing strategies
still play critical roles in determining buyer action
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|24C4)014.IMG ffJ^yaSiSTR)
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
Working Partnerships Are Crucial
• Users need to: - Protect market - Access technology - Control costs
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Dataqyest licci corporation
aconwanyof IheDOnirBradsti
DataQuest n ' n a company of l i M The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
PERSONAL COMPUTERS
Allan E. Alcorn Apple Fellow Apple Computer, Inc.
Mr. Alcorn is an Apple Fellow at Apple Computer, Inc. He works in the Advanced Technology Group and directs investigations into new technologies and applications for personal computers. He is currently chairman of a task force that is changing the way Apple Computer deals with ASICs. He is also -a member of the DRAM task force. Prior to joining Apple, Mr. Alcorn was a founder and the Vice President of RSD at Atari. He designed the first commercially successful coin-operated video game called PONG. He also built the first video game on a custom chip, followed by the Atari VCS home video game machine. Previously, Mr. Alcorn worked at the Videofile division of Ampex as an Electrical Engineer. Mr. Alcorn holds a B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science from the University of California at Berkeley.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDOCTOR TNDOSTRY ASSOCTATION/DATAQOEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
strategic Silicon At Apple
-"-'fi-r^-v ffi^^^'- 'jp"" '
.^'&' -r-
p«ue,,^-po-«,ao»p™.TgD^jJ„»'.-,r,.^^^^^^^^^^^ 1290 Bidder Park Drive,
' 4 7 J O T 5 A 95131-2398/(408)
Strategic Silicon At Apple
--^^Kmrnm-. Poif^l i^
9/20/88
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
frtftnmjUB mmim.oea\
Seizing Opportunities of Cliange: Strategic Electronic Marlcets for Semiconductors
PERSONAL COMPUTERS
ALLAN E. ALCORN Apple Fellow
Apple Computer, Inc.
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
strategic Silicon At Apple
9/20/88
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
strategic Silicon At Apple
9/20/88
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
strategic Silicon At Apple
9/20/88
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation ^ , , „ „ „ „ 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
strategic Silicon At Apple
9/20/88
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DataQuest BcompanvfjS
Coq>oratKMt
DataQuest n n a company of MMMM TheDun&BradstreetCorporation
PERSONAL COMPOTTNG IN THE 1990s
Dennis W. Andrews Assistant General Manager Advanced Engineering Systems IBM Corporation
Mr. Andrews is the Assistant General Manager for Advanced Engineering Systems at IBM Corporation, where he is responsible for AIX (ONIX) and RISC-based offerings. Prior to this, he was Laboratory Director for IBM's Entry Systems Division. Previously, he was Systems Manager, responsible for the development of the Personal Systems/2, Models 50, 50, and 80, and also had responsibility for the Personal Computers AT and XT 286. Mr. Andrews has worked for IBM for many years, starting as an Operating Systems Programmer and holding a variety of software development management positions. He was involved in the launch of the IBM PC and was the Product and Marketing Support Manager in the International Operations Group that was formed to introduce PC products outside of the Onited States. Mr. Andrews received a B.S. degree in Theoretical Mathematics from Penn State Oniversity.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR TNDOSTRY ASSOCIATTON/DATAQOEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
mUiiitMli mMmCiBit
^~\~]'
v ,
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic l\/larl(ets for Semiconductors
PERSONAL COMPUTING IN THE 1990s DENHtS W. ANDREWS
Assistant General Manager Advanced Engineering Systems
IBM Corporation
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
fills- •
C/)
O
"co CO "cB c: o CO
CL Hi;
III! nil
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
g
(
if If 5, §•»
^ 0>
kMm Parsonal Systems
ro u <o 00 c;
^^ o
-SSg feo 00 =• O po
o O 03 -- s s!t 5 S £5-
3o «D O *^ - CO-a ^ o -nS » 6' '^ =3
o
CO
•vl
o N) CO ro
Product Requirements
• Price/Performance
• Graphics
• Communicalions
• Advanced Technology
• Quality/Reliability
• Growth
COMPUTIN
PERFORMANCE
N) CO O
d a (D
5E $ (D
- sa CO _ tn 3 D O
< ^ ^ o -a S° • 0)
5a S»> CO o ^^ 1 00,5 J!;; o °5 S J i" 00 =•
oeo O 00
i!» _.a :^o C0T3 ^ O -nS eg '5 o CO -^j o <o ro
hi:Hm Personal Systems
The Challenge
• Establish A 32 Bit Processing Platform
• Provide Application Software Compatibility
• Maintain Open Architecture
• Connect To IBM's Overall Systems Solutions
• Higher Standard Of Usability & Reliability
jmx ew
:1VK ;
Dataquest incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
i I is < • ^ cb (o - a w _ 0) 3 3 O C-R O 73 S5 • a
5a S" cS8 K^J GO (O
0> 0 0 ^
il i?
I :3!o S3R COT3
^ o TlS
o 00
-~j o ho CO ro
ksm Personal Systems
Newest Additions . , . Improved Price/Perf
Model 50 Z Enhanced Model 50
Model 50 Z
• 30/60MB Fixed Disk (3.5-Inch)
• Faster Memory
Model 70 386 80386 In A Desktop Sys
Model 70 386
t 60/120MB Fixed Disk (a
• Faster Memory
• Memory Cache On Mod
ro (O
o gp Q .
a (D •D
^ O ^ 01
o l < c a <I> - n w _ a> 3 3 O c - O O "O S9 " a O (D
>p. <0 o)' ai " CO o ^% 1 00 •< J^ 2. °5* 3 J feo 00 - • geo o gi -- S i!a
JS.
3o SS5 COX) ^ o
• (>•
o -22 j i . 5^ o no (O i>j
mmn Personal Systems
Environment
Today Single User
IVIulti-User
l\/lulti-Tasking
IVIultiple Apps
Connectivity
Graphics
Usability
Tomofrow • Mainframe On
• Multi-Environm
• Multi-Processo
• Complex Con
• Improved Reli
• Enhanced Hu
CO
E 00
CO
15
iii..„
p! jlMI
E
LU
O CO
CD
a.
o O J:sl
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
CD O
d a. CD
"D
^ D ^ 0)
< <= ^% w _ a> 3 =3 o < - 0 O XS
SS 9 " ni
5a S"" CJ o ^ ^ ^1 0 0 ^
j!:; o
S ?
^ ^ CD ^ O Do O ^ O 03 — S s!g ^ s rslo !S5 COXJ
. o -nS
o 3
Oi
o N) CO ro
8 BIT
Mm Personal Systems
Architecture Yesterda
Today •"' \ Xi. ^ T ^ ^ J ^ J . .
Tomorrow
Multi-Processor Faster Processors/Memo Intelligent Subsystems - Dedicated Functions
ro (O o I) a. a CD
T3
e j o X- 0)
°I I I w _ 0) 3
^8 O T3 $R • ffi.
(D
a
lism Personal Systenns
5 0) CD
0 1
CO o
^ ^ Si 0 0 5
-- S.
sg-
^^ 00 ^
goo o gj ^ S s!a -I 3o !Q9 COTD ^ O -nS S o "5 o 3 -1^ CO -vl o (O CO IV)
storage Devices
Today
Diskettes - 3.5" - 720KB & 1.44MB
Hard Files -20-314 MB -1:1 Interleave - Caclne Support
200MB Optical Drive
Tomorrow
• Higher Capac
• Faster Access Data Transfer
• External Expa
• Intelligent Co
• Erasable Opt
• Software - La
Mm Personal Systems l\3 CO
o CL Q. (D
^ O 5r 0)
"I <D fD
- sa CO _ 0) 3 3 O C - O O "O
• &
5a c38 ^1 1 00 •< ^ o
3 J
^i CD ^ O Qo O CD
~~ s s ! | ^ ^ _.£ :2!o (£> O -.vi -1 COT3 ^ O
Communications
4i. O
•SS *^ CO
•;J O (O ro
Today
• ASYNC on Planar
• Multi Protocol Cards
• Multiple Networks
• Terminal Emulation
Tomorrow More On-Board
High Bandwidth
Intelligent Sub-S
ISDN, OSI, FDD
Multiple Roles
- Intelligent Term
- Server
- Gateway/Bridg
- Multi-User Hos
i
I h < c -'"a w l S 3 3 O k° S O QI > Q .
<0 cu CJO
ca^ CD» 0 0 ^
6 o ><E 00
hsjn Personal Systems
i ao S5S GJ-O ^ o i?^ g 6-o SB
* • • u •VI o ro CO
Human Interface
Today
Monochrome - 64 Gray Shades - Color Summing Color
- 320 X 200 256/256K Colors
- 640 X 480 16/256K Colors
- 1024 X 768 256/256K Colors; (8514 Display)
Keyboard
Mouse
Touch Screen
. Tomorrow
• Better Resolution • Advanced Hardw
- Vector Assist
- Image Compre
- Graphics Subs
- Virtual Memory
• Full Motion Vide
• Sound
• Speech Recogni
• Handwriting/Ges
• Eye Tracking
• Artificial Intellige
I
i ^ o TT fa o l < • c
^ a w _ 0> 3 D O O X) $ o ' & Oro > a S"" w8
^1 CD ,5
j ; ; o
°5 6 D 00 - '
Ofio O 03 "~- S s * t 55 ^
ffi-
3 o !SR COTJ ^ O -nS g "
o 3
o
-b. CJ ~g o ro CO
i ^ Personal Systems
Tomorrow . . The Possibilities Fiber-Based
Communications ^'^Stir Voice
Speech Recogn
Multi-Processor Integrated Scanner/Copier
Integrated Telephone
Flat Disp
Imag
Handwriting/Gesture Recognition
Eye Tracking Object Recognition
Artificial Intelligence Optical Storage
CO
o 3) d a (D TJ ^ O TT g) °S < t= ^a w _ 0) 3 3 O •^R o -a SS o - * 5 3
5a $»> r t " cj o
^1 "•3 ^ o
°5 S J ^ § CD -^ O Do O CD
^ S s!g 2 S
CD
3o 539 0J"O ^ o -nS » o o 3
o to CO l>0
m Personal Systems
Tomorrow . . . Enabling Technologies
Faster Processors Multi-Processor Intelligent Subsystems
Denser Memories CD ROM Optical Storage Processor/OS Addressability
I/O Channels
Storage Subsyst^f^
Fiber Optics
High Speed LANs
More MIPS
More Memory
More Bandwidth
m E B "53 CO
15 c o CO
a3 CL
iliii:
O O
o CD
eouBUjjo^9ci/uo!iOunj
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
8
i
piam Personal Systems
?S < • ^
a (D - a w _ D> D 3 O cR O "D $5 • »
5£ g" 558
1 00-3 J ^ Q.
S J
i" 00 -^ OBo O CD
s!g SB-
3o S39 CO-D ^ O -nS g o o 3
• ( ^
CO >i o ro CO r>o
t Multiple User Environments
• Exploitation Of PS/2 Architecture
• Faster, High Density Storage Devices
• High Speed/High Bandwidth Communications
• Enhanced Human Interface
Right For Today. Ready For Tomorrow
Dataqyest a company of The Dun & nad^R^ CorporAun
DataQuest n n a company of MMMM The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
COMPOTER STORAGE
George M. Scalise President and CEO Maxtor Corporation
Mr. Scalise is President and Chief Executive Office of Maxtor Corporation. Prior to joining Maxtor, he was a Senior Vice President of Government and Industry Relations at Advanced Micro Devices. During his tenure with AMD, he was responsible for manufacturing, marketing, and international operations. Previously, he held upper management positions with Fairchild Semiconductor and Motorola, working in the United States, Europe, and the Far East. Mr. Scalise currently heads the disk drive consortium, which addresses industry and national issues such as trade policies. He has been a leading spokesman for the electronics industry as chairman of the SIA's public policy committee and worked closely with the U.S. government in developing and implementing the U.S.-Japan semiconductor trade agreement. Mr. Scalise holds a B.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATTON/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
•a3B60WJ<6 pnnto:6ai
c, Seizing Opportunities of Cliange: Strategic Electronic Markets for Semiconductors
COMPUTER STORAGE
GEORGE M. SCALISE President and CEO Maxtor Corporation
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
s
I ^ o X" Q)
? ! - $ |
i B o
j l 5gL (O 0) in *" u8 "^3
il ^ a
^ -
5? § (J»
O)
JD&
a^ ffi go
6 &$
The Outer Limits of
Data Storage George M. Scalise President and CEO Maxtor Corporation September 29,1988
1 Scafim
I\> CO
o 2) ci a <D
i-o
- 1 w _ §8 k°
n sa (O m o i ™
Wo
Si $? s= § 0«
(D
il !l 1 a^ ?i eg
Three Building Blocks of Information Processing Systems
Microprocess0r
DRAM
Hard Disk Drive
402
I ro
2 ScaNse
<o O
a a (D
$ (0
- <a CO —
§ 8
1 9a g" si - a •is S
i-do^"
§ 0" (S
^ S
l l (QO
^1
mportant for U.S
to Be a Leader
in All Three Areas
403
i> S 3 Scallse
Product Positioning
i B>
$ (D - a w _ §8 c - O ii ' tt
5& <o 0, rt f> u o
ll
If Sp . So)
1 ^ 5 | SRo
a^ ;;g eg
Cost Per MByte ($/MB)
0.01—i
0.1 —
1 —
10 —
100—
1,000—
10,000 —
Mag Tape Optical
Disk
Magnetic Disk
Main Memory
Cache
T T 100,000 1,000 10
Access Time (Milliseconds)
"T" .001
— I — .00001
^ Removable ' Media
404
I
if w _ *1 • SS.
g» 558 " 3
Si li*
a i
eg
.405
I g 5 Scalise
The Market
fl • storage Demand Continues to Grow
• Technology is Advancing
• Storage Business is Maturing
• Key Task: Optimize Technology Choice il Specific Products it
a a a>
Jo ?I 11 OT _
§8 t _ o
H 9S. gw 58 r^-n
i| l l
i O O I - S
i!g !8§* a^ ^ ^ eg
I
Key Measures of Progress in Storage
Areal Density (Bits/in 2) Cost/Unit of Storage ($/MB) Performance Environmental Reliability
406
6 ScaKse
> ^ H—»
'O) cz 0 Q 15 0 ^ a .
<
_•
% % %
\ % \
1 1
£ Q> C O ° S Q.— O ^
\P
p \
D\
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 O ,^
in - 0)
0) • r -
• o 0) 0)
- o 00 0) T -
o - N
0)
»
o (D 0)
r o
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / "Rslex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
a. o. (D
TJ
5 O
$ « • ia w _ 58 t _ 5
-if 5a (O 0) ri o ojo
il -r a • = = 0 )
^? § 0»
CD
•^s i!» !l
eg
Performance
Data Rate Access Time
- Seek - Latency
System Throughput
409 6 f^ 9 ScaKse
s 3) a a «
I-If s?
11 o c
i"* >a> S
^
!l I? go
I 410
Performance Industry Trends in 5 1/4 -Inch Mechanisms
40
m
ZQ
10
ii
Access Time msec Transfer Rale Mbit/sec
^ \ Access Tirtjft ^^^
^ ^^^Transfer Rate
\ X / V _
X " -- 85 86 87 88 89
20
15
10
5
10 Scalise
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
•4—» • ^ H ^
• ^ M B
-Q 03
• ^^^m • H i H ^ a
(D cc
1 o h*
1 o (O
1 o lO
1 1 o o
1 o CM
1
o o
CM [- 0>
o>
o o> en T -
00 - 00
o> ' - CO
cc < LLI
CO > -- 00
^
- 0 0 o>
CM 00 a>
» t -
CM
5
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
ro CO
o a a CD
OS < ^ - < B |
^S o o CL.O
- i 5 S'" w8 1 §1 ^ 9.
3 J
t 00 ^ O Do O O CD
^ S t^ ^l 3o SS9 03-O - , o 7 1 ^
i§ o -2 ^ 53 o ro CD
ro
Product Timelines
Capacity
51/4-inch
3 1/2-inch
3GB
~>—r 1980 1982
1.5Ga
5MB 200MB
1 1 1 — I ' " — I < — I r
1984 1986 1988 1990
Year
1992
413
13 Scalise
I\) (O
o 33
a Q. (D TT 0)
M _ a> D D O <^5 O TD S ° • s> O CD > Q. CO Q> Ol CJ o
Si 00 =
JI; o
3 ?
00 ="
goo O CD ~- S s^s to" 3 X 2 :=!o 539 CO-a ^ o -nS. .( o CD
o N) (O N)
Estimated Total Drive Sales
Units (Millions)
25 -
20 -
15 -
10 -
5 -
• 31/2-inch
M 51/4-inch
^ r ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ n ^ i i i i P i i " ' * " ' ^
1982 1992
414
14 Scalise
0)
0 >
0) DC
>
O) • ^ ^ ^
Q • g 'O) • ^ ^ H i
•C 8 O
to « •D to « • > 3 C •£ c o 5 to = o £ 5 Sec —
I s o o tf¥
^
in
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Key Parameters to (O
o 3 Q.' Q. (D TJ ^ O :>r 0)
5I <" <^ P ^ W _ D) =) 3 O C_9 O "D
- a)
5a CO o
00 •< -X 9.
S g 6 D 00 ^
O QD
O CD
•~~ S
»!a _.s irio SSR C0T3 ^ O
Memory Growth 50%/Yr Manufacturing Learning Curve 25%/2X Technology Growth(MB/ln ) 27%/Yr $/MB Reduction 23%/Yr
I § 416
f 16 Seslise
i 95 S (D
- a M _ 0) 3 3 O
<^5 O "O 89 • a.
ga c58 •^^^ 1 00,5
-X Q.
B^
CD ^ O p o
O 03 ^ S 5!g ^ ^ _.£ :i!o ^ 9 co-g -nS 1 § 4^ o 00
Trends
Lower Flying - Heights
New Head Structures
High Coercivity Media
Read Channels and Servos
Contact Recording
6 417
fo 17 Scalise
rvj to o
d a (D •o 5> D ^- 0)
w _ D) 3 3 O
<^9 o -a
5a S» CO o
^^ ^1 0 0 ^
-X Q.
S J feo 00 ^ O Qo
O OJ
" S ila _.s irio 535 W D ^ O
The Outer Limits Of
Data Storage George M. Scalise President and CEO Maxtor Corporation September 29,1988
o Z3
o
4^
-3 o M 03 N) 16 Scalise
Dataqyest Corpontian I acompanvof
TheMnSllradstReli
Dataquest « » « • a company of I B M The Dun&Bradstreet Corporation
VOICE PROCESSING
Robert Cohn President and CEO Octel Communications Corporation
Mr. Cohn, a cofounder of Octel Communications Corporation, is the company's President, Chief Executive Office, and a Director. Prior to founding Octel Communications, he was Marketing Manager for Acurex Corporation's Tcore Division, which produces microprocessor-based measurement and control systems. At Acurex, he was responsible for two successful products and received a patent for a user-friendly display device that today leads that industry. Previously, Mr. Cohn was with McKinsey and Company and also held positions in commercial and investment banking. Mr. Cohn received a B.S. degree in Mathematics and Computer Science from the University of Florida and an M.B.A. degree from Stanford University.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCTATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
|BibBBOii'.wG am%miii5ISS\
O, V .
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic IMarlcets for Semiconductors
VOICE PROCESSING
ROBERT COHN President and CEO
Octel Communications Corporation
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a connpany of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
OCTEL COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATIO
i I if II " Si
5a g" CO O
^1 1 -X 9.
S J
n O B o O CD -~ S 5!a to S
> I 3o S39 COTJ >^ O
-nS I§ o o N) (O ro
VOICE PROCESSING MARKET OVERVIEW
Robert Cohn
September 29,1988
Dataquest Executive Briefing
©Copyright 1988 OCTEL COMMUNICAT 20K-1 1
PRESENTATION OUTLINE ro (O o 3) a Q. (D TJ D>
o ^ 0)
?I <• c
p ^ (/) _ 0) 3 D O
•^5 O "O
$ 9 • £8. O t > a cS8 ^1 1 ^ 9. S d
n 00 ^
oeo O O)
^ S _.S l i o 5S9 C0T3 ^ O -nS g o "5 o .2 •b. T3 o f>0 CO M
f^ • Market Overview
• Status of key market segments
• Technology/semiconductor issues
A&>l pyright 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICATIO
i I ^ o
<• c
p ^ V) — 0) 3 3 O <^5 o -o S5 ' S.
5a S» ^8 ^1 c n ^
^?; Si*
i 00 ^ O B O o ro ~- s s!a
eg,
3o SS5 C0T3 .^ O -nS e Q .( o
o to (O K3
VOICE PROCESSING SYSTEMS ARE SPECIALIZED COMPUTER SYSTEMS
Q ® S
PBX or
CO.
VP System
A/D
D/A
0 0
e Copyright 1988 20K-3
OCTEL COMMUNICAT
I>0 (O
o
a Q. (D
o^ < • c^
P | w _ B> 3 3 O •^5 O -D
iS5 ' SS.
o t m
MAJOR VOICE PROCESSING MARKETS UTILIZE STORED DIGITIZED SPEECH
• Largest voice processing markets - Voice mail
- Telephone answering (O ,
| i - Automated attendant §1
^ Q
°^ 00 ^
O Qo O (D ^ S »!a 5 S _. SB. :2fo S39 C0T3 >^ O
-nS
i § .t^
o 3 4^ ^ o l>0 (O
ro
- Audiotex
i - Call routing
Smaller voice processing markets - Voice recognition
- Speech synthesis
#opyr^t 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICAT
CO O
a a (D
TJ
^ D ^- ED
5 l $ CD - a w _ W 3 3 O
<^5 O "D
S9 - BJ.
5a CO o • 1 1 00 •<
^ Q
3 J ^ ^ 00 ^ geo o gj - S i'a !l : io !S5 CJT3 -_ O -nS So
o ro (O to
ANALYSTS AGREE THAT MARKET IS IN SOLID GROWTH PHASE
End-User Revenues
($MM)
1000-^—-.^.w^^-^^-. •••' ^ ^
U.S. "Voice Messaging" Market Only Pr
Consensus" 1984-1987 1987-1991
• Prob A Gart • Data • Vang
1984 1965 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
©Copyright 1988 18S-8
OCTEL COMMUNICATI
ro (D o a a (D
T)
^ a 5 l $ (D
- a M _ B) 3 3 O <-5 O T3
S° • m
sa CO o
Si -^ S. °5i 3g-^f 00 ^
goo o g) -~ S s^a jo's
OVER A BILLION DOLLARS IN A FEW YEARS MAKES SENSE
Proven technology
Solid customer demand
Multiple customer purchases
Market far from saturation
• New market opportunities - Voice information services
- Smaller businesses
I ' - International markets
I - Computer system integrations
::3!o 589 CJTJ .^ O -nS g o
^j^o^tyHptn 1SB8 OCTEL COMMUNICAT
Wh w
IVJ to o
d a (D
TJ
^ D ? ! < • c a <ii - 01
wZ to 3 3 O
^° O "O
ffi o 01
5a ^» CO o i^l ^1 00 >^
JI; o °5 S J
f 00 ^ O B o O OJ
2!a !l :i!o 5 3 ^ 03T3 ^ O -nS g o "S o 00
•vl
o M CO l o
BREADTH AND DEPTH OF OCTEL SALES INDICATE STRONG MARKET ACCEPTANC
Over 30 Fdrtun© 100's
Customer with multiple systems:
• Average systems per customer:
• Largest customer:
• Top 5 customers:
• Top 25 customers:
©Copyright 1988 . — OCTEL COMMUNICAT 20K-7
PRESENTATION OUTLINE t\3 (O O 3) Q.'
a. CD •XJ 0)
o a
Market Overview 9S < • t^
W _ 0) 3 3 O
<^5 1 91 ^<" cS8 l^^l ^ «
—, Q.
°5! 3 J
00 ^ O p o
o gj
^^ ffi ;3
:do 5SR ^E -nS
j ^ • Status of key market segments
• Technology/semiconductor issues
00
•> j o ^5 CO tvj
^ p opyright 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICATI
i
I h < ^ « CD
- a CO — 0) D 3 O
<^9 o -a SO - » 5^ S» c38
1 00 •< ^ o -S2J %l 00 ^ O p o
O CD
-~ s 5!g 55 s _.a : i o ^9 cj-o ^ o TiS
-3 o M CO ro
DISTINCT VOICE PROCESSING MARKET SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED
Customer Premise Eauioment Voice Information Services
Fo^une 1000 I
Companleisi
Smaller Companies
Telephone Company Enhanced Services
Cellular Providers
Service Bureaus
Internation
CPE and VIS
©Copyright 1988 20K-0
OCTEL COMMUMCAT
ro (O
o a a CD
^- g^
9^ S CD - a w _ BJ D 3 O C-9 o -a $ 9 " &
5a S'" u8
1 ^ s. 3 J 6 D 00 ^ O f i o O 03
s!g
:3!o
!SR 03 TD
^ o -na o 3 * > . o ro (O l\3
"FORTUNE 1000" IS THE LARGEST MARKET SEGMENT TODAY
Many communications problems
72,000 large PBX/Centrex installations (U.S. o
Relatively untapped market
Lowest purchase cost per user
Copyright 1988 . ^ -^ • OCTEL COMMUNICAT ^
ro to o
OL
a CD
LARGE COMPANIES HAVE SERIOUS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS
s; D
o ^
• Telephone tag l | • Unanswered phones
1% • Inaccessible people
Travel/time zones 51 CO "
i | • Wasted long distance charges ^ Q
3 J feo i OD ^^
oe= o w ~~ S ;s<Q-
f | I :ii to o ^ - 1 0JT3 ^ O -nS go "5 o 00
Message centers
"Information float"
o ro to i\i
©Copyright 1988 n^TFI COMMUNICAT 6Y-10 I t
CO o
ai a. a>
>^ O 7r ^ ?S < • c
-»$ wZ 0) 3 3 O <^? O "D
- a>
§a S" w8 ^ ^ 1 00-< -X S. o ^ S J feo 00 -" O B o O 00 ^ S
i!a
S3S W D ^ O -nS S o
§
o ^3 (O r\j
VOICE PROCESSING SYSTEMS CAN ADDRESS THESE NEEDS
Voice mail (voice messaging)
Telephone answering
Automated attendant
Information Center"^ Mailboxes
Enhanced"^ Call Processing
©Copyright 1988 OCTEL COMMUNICAT V2
THE LARGE CORPORATE CUSTOMER-DEMANDING REQUIREMENTS
CO O
3J a a (D
g ^ <• c a (D
- a 05 _ 0) 3 3 O < - ^ O "O
i89 - m 9^ S»> CO o ^ ^ 1 0 3 ^ -X Q.
s^ 00 ^ O B o O 00
ffi!t JB-
3o SS9 CO-a -_ o -nffi. So
g 4^
o ^3 (O K3
Vancouver Mitel D200
Los Angeles Mitel
Dallas Siemens
Orlando Isoetec 228
Perth STC Starswitch M
Eric
©Copyright 1988-4UA-1
CXirr^ G0MMUMQAT 13
a
PO CO
o 3) Q; Q. (D "O 0)
?E < • £= ffl fl) - a w _ 0) 3 3 O
<^9 O "D S5 - m
5a S " CO o ^^ 1
J^ Q
3g-6 D 00 ^ O Qo
8 CD •^ s s!g
:2!o ^ 9 03 T3 ^ O
171^
go o 4^
T3 o ro CO ro
STRATEGY IS TO PROVIDE THE EXACT PRODU DEMANDED BY TARGET MARKET
• Rve VP features
• Range of product sizes
• Compatibility with all PBXs
• Integrations with most PBXs/COs
• Networking
• Best features
Copyright 1988 OCTEL COMMUNICAT ©Cop
ro CO
o Q. a (t
?a : ^ 0)
o l . s | en _ B) 3 3 O • ^9 o -3 S8 o CD ^
5^
w8 ^^ gl ; : o § H -2? ^ ^ 00 ^
§ e» CD
- s 8-21 ^ ^ _ L £ ^
ao S59 w o ^ o ; 7 i ^ ^g "S ,s fS
OCTEL'S PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ADDRES FORTUNE 1000 MARKET DIRECTLY
\spenNet letworktag
••m.^y-
IIX-
Branch® Branch XP TM Aspen*
1 pegi^tibtil Ihfoiftatioh :"
^ :i|M.:€enterrr' :: Enhanced "
Call Processing j)\spen
® Copyright 1988. SY^gl
OCTEL COMMUNICAT IS
IV) CO
o
I h < I -
-^a wZ (B D 3 O <^5 O "D
s° • SI Q t S"-ci8 ^1 ^1 0 0 ^
J ^ Q.
3 ?
00 ^
O p o O CD -^ S 2!a 5? ^ :3!o ^ 5 OJ-D ^ O
-na 'S O 52 CL} • v l
o IV) (O ro
INTEGRATIONS ARE A KEY FORTUNE 1000 MARKET REQUIREMENT
2-way comrTiuiiiGalion channel
Improve functionality and ease of use - Direct telephone answering
- Provide message notification
- Return to "operator"
Difficult to develop (especially for PBX vendors
ACopyrlgW t988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICAT
w' w
PO CO o
d. a.
•D
^ O TT 0) D |
- a CO _ 0) 3 3 O c - O o -o ig9 - a o o > a CO 01 oi CO o
• 1 1 0 0 ^
^ o
0 5 !
i" 00 ^
goo O CD
2!a s.
l io iSR w o ^ o
o 3 « i .
o no (D to
INDUSTRY SHIPMENTS ARE CONCENTRATED IN V WITH FORTUNE 1000 FOCUS
End-user Revenues $MM 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
' j j j j j j j j j j j j j , • j j j j j j j j j j j j j
ijjjjSiryjs&jjjj, i j j j j j j j j j j j j j ,
VMX
\:\.-j\/\S}
WANG
j j j j j j ^ j j j j j j j
iddJirfsbttiiiij JJJJJJJJJ^JJJJ
* '• I- I- ' • ' • ' ( ' • • • ^ ^ ^ ^ •
CENTIGRAM ' i ^ 'r, 'tf 'if 'i. fl. 'j-j. '-^ I V, ^ .^ •> ^
^ ^ i i ^ V V •''•',• ' V ''r. "H ''V '''H 'riL ''-X '•> ''*• \ ''^ DIGITAL SOUND
15-20+ VENDORS
Fortune 1000 Focus
Source; Dataquest revenue estimates (U.S.
2nd Tier Companies
"voice messaging" market).
3rd Tier Companies
©Copyright 1988 20K-17
OCTEL COMMUI^CATIO \?
s
I s; o yr B) ?1 < • ^
P t W _ B) 13 3 O
<_5 O T3
Jg9 " m
Sa g " CO o
^ ^ 1 00-3 -X Q
S J &. 00 =• o p . O 03 ^ S 5!g _ s =i!o iS9 CO-D ^ O
T lS
sg
o
o CO
ro
DISTINCT VOICE PROCESSING MARKET SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED
Customer Premise Equipment
Fortune 1000
Companies
Smarter Companies
Voice Information Services r"
Internalion
Teieptione Company Enhanced Services
Celluiar Providers
Service Bureaus
CPE and VIS
^ ^ < opyrfght 1986 OCTEL COMMUNICAT
N3 CO O
a a (D
^ O
5^ < • <^
(6 (D - a w _ B> 3 3 O C ° O 73
- a. 5a S» G) o
1 00-5 ^ Q.
-SS?
^ ^ 00 ^ OBo O CD "~- S
ala
r io S3§ CdTJ ^ O -nS go
PIONEERING VOICE PROCESSING AT THE LOW END WAS NOT PROFITABLE EARLY O
• High selling costs
• One sale per customer
• Low prices
o CD
t"
O ro CO ro
©Copyright 1988 . OCTEL COMMUNICATIO 18S-24 I J
LU
o <
LU CC O s LU CQ
O h-o z z o LU m (0 • k >k
o z
O) c CO cc
b c
" D
CO
E CD
" O
CO 3
c o
"O O)
E o o CO to o o O)
"cS CO
• D 0) to CD
o • • • • •
D) • ^I^IB
4—• <D D ) CO
b • a CD >
X CO Q.
E CO
CO CD c CO
o c O
"3 -Q •*—' CO
T3 "D O O
a
<
Q
S' 0-QC O o O !^ o
o o - J
UJ
O
LU
LU
00 00 o>
^ 5 ^
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
(O o a a (D
"0
^ D TT (D
§1 ^ <t> - a w _ B) D 3 O
<^9 o -a S5 ' S. 5^ JS» 58 ^^ ^1 00-3 - ^ Q. °5i 3g^
BUT SERIOUS ISSUES STILL FACE VEND SELLING TO LOW END
• Good price/performance
• High quality
• Ease of use
• Strong distribution channels 11 - Skilled sales
- strong service/aipport
§1"
• D)
s's w i i o S55 C0T3 ..^ O
n O ro CO
©Copyright 1988 _ - . • OCTEL COMMUNICAT 20K-g1 *1
I\J (O o Q.'
a (D
^ o
P ^ w _ to 3 3 O C-9 O "O
S" CO o
-^^ 1 "•5 ^ Q
n 00 ^
geo O 03 ^ B)
5S S ffi.
3o 539 oj-D ^ o
o
t^ o SS
o ro to ho
DISTINCT VOICE PROCESSING MARKET SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED
Customer Premise Eauioment Voice Information Services
Fortune 1000
Companies
Smaller Companies
Telephone Company Enhanced Services
Celluiar Providers
Service Bureaus
internation
CPE and VIS
^ popyright 1988
w OCTEL COMMUNICAT
VIS MARKET HAS SEVERAL SEGMENTS
to o
Q. Q. (D
TJ ^ O pr B)
< ^
-"I w _ 0> 13 =3 a c-° O -D 8 9 • a.
5a S» CO o ^^ 1 00-3 o CO
3" (D
n 00 ^ O p o O DD ^ S 5! t
s. 3 o 589 03T3 ^ o -nS 4^
o CXI ^3 o ro CO iv>
VIS
CO. Enhanced Services
Cellular Service Bureaus
Non-RBOC
©Copyright 1988 188-37
OCTEL COMMUNICAT m
m (0 D LU \U Z cc <
CO l U > <
X (0 I -z LU
o UJ (0 I -LU Nd CC <
(0
o Q. CO O o
CO
E B CO
O CO
o. CO > ^ ^ CO
0) o 55 CD [U.
CD >
E CD
to > ^ CO CD D) CO
CD CO
*o (D CO CO
LU
< o T. 3
O O _ l liJ
O
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
rv) <o o
Q! a. CD
OS <• c
P | 03 _ 0) 13 3 O
<^5 O X3
S8R " ffi. 5a S» CO o
• ^ ^ l Si Ji; o
S J
f 00 ^ gO" O CD
^ s 5la 5 ^ 2 ! 0 SSR
-nffi.
o 3 4^
o l>0 CO l>0
PRODUCT REQUIREMENTS ARE DEMANDING FOR MAJOR VIS MARKETS
Redundant messaging
Very high reliability
Large capacity
DC or AC operation
CO integr
Networking
Fast opera
CDR and
<^ Copyright 1988 20K-26
OCTEL COMMUNICATI
ro (O
o Q.
a. CD
s; o pr ^ O ^ < t^ « CD - a w _ D) 3 3 O
<^5 § 1 " £8.
o f >p. (O Ol
cS8
1
WE EXPECT SOLID LONG-TERM GROWTH FROM VIS MARKETS
Cellular has compelling eoonomfce
Service bureau market is proven
• CO. Enhanced Services market may be huge 15 - 12,000+C.O.'s in U.S. - 2 *
11 - 4-5,000+ likely target C.O.'s for VIS O CD -~ S
tn _xSB. r io 559 C L ) T 3 _^ O
go
i 3 .;>. 7^ o t o CO ro
opyright iggq ^ OCTEL COMMUNICATI #opyright 1988 ^ . -^r
w
t£ lU h -1 -CC
o I ( / )
H o z • \
cc LU 1— (5 Z
o -J (0
(0 >
z
00 00 CO c cc D)
• a^^m
13 • c o Q-Q. O
O O OQ CC
CO
CO CD
Csl I
CD
iS
E ^^
"en CO
• «^^B
^a
T3 CD CO ^^tf CO
Q _
CD
CO
E "c CD E o Q-CD
Q
Q
oc O CL OC o o
O
o T. 3
o o - J LU
o
CO CO O)
1 ? O A © S
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
r\5 <o o
a a (D
DISTINCT VOICE PROCESSING MARKET SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED
9E <• c s <i> ^ a CO _ D) 3 3 O C - O O T3
Sg° ' S. 5^ S» CO o - 1 1
^ Q.
3g^
00 ^
goo O CD ^ S 2!a _.a r io 539 C0T3 ^ O
-na
Si o 4^
^ o rv) (O ro
Customer Premise Eauloment Voice Information Services
Fortune 1000
Companies
Smaller Companies
Telephone Company Enhanced Services
Cellular Providers
Service Bureaus
Internatio
i ^spg
and VIS
M. Cojf^lght 1988 ' 2«
OCTEL COMMUNICAT
INTERNATIONAL SALES ARE GROWING 00 CO
o d a CD
"D
^ O ^~ 01
°I -"-a M _ ai 3 3 O <^9 o -o
s° " 0)
5^ CO o
1 00 = ^ Q. § ^ 3 J feo 00 = O B = O CD
^ s !"» S s -.a iQ9 w o -^o ;7iSi g o "S o .( CO -;g
CO ^3
Octel International Revenues (in millions)
6
5-
4-
3-
2-
1-
n $0.1
$0.6 . . : : • : : :
• : E s
$5.8
1986 1987
Fiscal Years (6/30)
1988
©Copyright 1988 20K-29
OCTEL COMMUNICAT
8
I 9E <• c
p ^ w _ OJ 13 3 O < - ^ O "O
S 9 - » 5^ g» CO o ^ ^ 1 - 9. o ^
i CO -^ O B o O CD -~ S 5la " ^ _.a ralo !55 COTD ^ O
-nS
1 4^
^ o ro CO po
LEADING U.S. VENDORS HAVE DELAYED GOING TO EUROPE
• Regulations
• Complex market
• Need for strong presence
• Many languages
• Focus on USA
^^Copyright 1988 . ^ OCTEL COMMUNICA
#•" W
o CC
o Q. QC O O CO z o
< "S i 2 Q . § UJ Q . ^ CO CO eg g
"r^ O
LU
HI w 2 § Ul "HS
S E . y i9 _ <D o e CO 7
^ 8 e ^ ^ S o o § ^ O o 1 l I CC c o o) E
3 S ^ I c* O t n ^ •==.
O U- Q_ W O) CD ^ ^ I E ^ Z) LU LL LU
o o CO CO O)
52
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
00 CO
o 3 ) Q! a (D
TJ
SJ O ?E < • £ (D H) - a w _ 0) 3 3 O
<^5 O T3
$ 9 - » 9^ g" CO o ^ ^ si -X Q. °5! 3 J ^° 00 ^
O Co
8 CD
i _ 2. : io SS9 03 T3 ^ O
-nS e Q-4 o SS 4^
O N) <o ro
DISTINCT VOICE PROCESSING MARKET SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED
Customer Premise Eauioment Voice Information Services
Fortune 1000
Companies
Smaller Companies
Telephone Company Enhanced Services
Cellular Providers
Internation
Service Bureaus
CPE and VIS
^ ^ 0 [
W opyrlght 1988
#
OCTEL COMMUNICATI
I>0 <o o 3) CL Q. (D
Tl
aj o ?r (B
< • ^
«>a w _ to D 3 O
<^5 O "D S5 - » 5^ go" CO o ^ ^ 1 00,3
- ^ Q. 3 J 6 o 00 ^ O B O o on ^ S s ! | "I 3o S39 C0T3 ^ O
-nS.
, o 3 4i.
O [O (O ho
AspenLink" IS AN OPEN ARCHITECTURE GAT BETWEEN ASPEN® AND COMPUTER SYSTE
PBX, Centrex, or CO.
Aspen
Voice Processing
System
Aspen Command Language
"Z • A
p • A
d
©Copyright 1988 1BS-44
OCTEL COMMUNICAT 33
i I 33 0) O "^ DO
< • ^
^% W _ 0) H 3 O
C-° o -o ss ° • B. O (D > D -
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES EMERGE WIT ASPEN COMMAND LANGUAGE (ACL)
OPEN ARCHITECTURE
• Integration with E-mail
• Linkage with computer applicetons I I - Office automation
- Transaction processing
• l\/lulti-vendor approach - HP first (cooperatively)
- OtJiers, witii or without cooperation
S" S8 K^3 u (O
00
^ Q.
-2? do-" oeo o o) - S
ilg
:3!o 535 co-o ^ o
o SS
o (O to
©Copyright 1988 ^^ OCTEL COMMUNICATI
PRESENTATION OUTLINE ro (O o 3) d a (D
HJ O ^ - 03
w _ 0) 3 3 O < - ^ O 13
SS5 • to
5a S-"
1 00,5 ^ o
0 5 !
^ ^ 00 ^ gco O 00
^ 53 ffila _.a r io 559 CO-D ^ O
-nS
eg
•vi o ro (O M
• Market Overview
• Status of key market segments
0> • Technology/semiconductor issues
©copyright 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICAT
00 (O
o d a <D
•D
^ O ?r m
O.S S | W _ BJ 3 3 O <^5 O "O
ss " ffi
5a ga-CO o
Si ^ Q.
3 g ifeO 00 ^ 0 0 0 O CD ~- S =H O-
ffl s
::io !39 C3T3 ^ o -nS
sg
FUTURE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ADDRES VOICE PROCESSING'S EMERGENCE
AS A CENTRAL TECHNOLOGY
§
o <o
-
Switches (PBX, CO.,...)
Voice Processing
System
Voice Processing
System
Vendor"X" VP System
1 1 1
Computer Systems
^ ^ O f Copyright 1988.
w OCTEL COMMUNICAT
ro (£>
o
Q!
Q. a "D
o> O 7r D3
9 l <• c
03 _ 0) 3 3 o
o -3 S8 o
a 5a S» rt o oj o
^1 00 =
-^ 2. fe-S J
^ ^ 00 = O Oo O ' ^ O CD "~- S
i i i i So
OUR MARKET WARRANTS ATTENTION FR SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLIERS
• Fast-growing market
• Becoming a core technology
• Strategically important - To major corporations (CPE)
- To telephone companies (VIS)
m Enormous future potential
^3 o M (O hO
©Copyright 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICAT 20K-07 ari'
a. o. (D
«! P
- a i'8
1 9.1 (D
il II I? gg.
II If So
6
VOICE PROCESSING VENDORS REQUIRE SEVER FROM SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
• High product quality
• Dependable, consistent supply and pricing
|i • Cooperative working relationship
^fecopyfigw i m : ^ OCTEL COMMUMCA
o u. LL
O O
<
QL
UJ
o <
0) <
X (5 z o QC
< cr o (O in CM
o
CO
O o> 00 O)
CM
o
o
CO
o 00 00 o
CM
o
z o I -< QC
2 cc o o O
O
o o _ l UJ \-o o
o
CO
o h« 00 O)
CM "^
o
~
o
"^
o
CO O CO
a> CM '^ O
O
M O
E I)
o > *^ o }" c o o 1
O) to ^ o «} Q. Q. Q
O in
'*-'
w V 3 cr CO
^^ to Q O)
o 3 o CO
CO 00 o
x : 5>
l » 52 @ s
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
i
i < • c a CD - a M _ 0) 3 3 O C_ O CO -"•oi
<0 0) 0 1 "
CO o
1 0 0 ^
^ o
o5
00 ^ O Qo
8 03 - 3 5!a ^ _.a :2!o 5SE C0T3 ^ O
So
i •vl o ro CO IV)
IT WOULD BE USEFUL FOR SEMICONDUCT MANUFACTURERS TO ASK VP PROVIDERS ABOU
• Architectural differ^ce from standard compute
I • Special voice needs
;opyright 1988 ^ OCTEL COMMUNICAT ^Copyright 1988 ^C"
W° W
0) cc LU
z O < tc O Q. CC o o
Q . CO
Q.
z> (/) y o.
<
9 <
o o - J UJ
O) Ul CD O
U UJ
lu
o O
o c O ) o o o O
o
CO ' (0
"c ffS.
CO CD O
o
k ^a^m
"c5 o ^ ^ f a
E o o 2 Q
00 CO O)
>. Q - ^
O i © °
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
i I <• c
w _ D) 3 3 O < - ^ O "O
^1 g " CO o
^^ 1 "•i J^ 9.
3 J
00 ^ O B o O 00
^ s »!a -.a ::3!o SS§ 0013 >^ O
; T ' ^ §Jo "5 o 00
• f j o rv> <o
COOPERATION IS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WORLD LEADERSHIP POSITIO
World VP market doiTiinated by U.S.
VP vendor/semiconductor relationships critical
Need to work together
^ Copy hS im OCTEL COMMUNICAT
< tr. O D-tn O O
< o
< I O f, o o
o o lU I-o o
CO 00 en x: a w
>. Q. O
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Dataquest acompuiyof The Oun&BradstRct Corporation
DataQuest «»WB a company of I B S l The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
ON-LINE TRANSACTION PROCESSING
Robert F. Lakin Director of Strategy Tandem Computers
Mr. Lakin is Director responsible for the manufactures and sells systems. Previously, President of Marketing,
of Strategy for Tandem Computers, where he is company's core strategy processes. Tandem a wide range of transaction processing computer Mr. Lakin was Executive Assistant to the Vice Manager of Direct Response Marketing, and Manager
of Marketing Planning for Tandem. Earlier, he held a variety of positions with Burroughs Corporation, including lecturing and teaching in Burroughs' domestic and overseas operations on data management, access control, and network architecture. Mr. Lakin is a graduate of the University of Northern Iowa.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
[Ba3asooe.iMQ 07Mi/ea:QED|
w ^ ^ % ^ \ ^
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Marlcets for Semiconductors
ON-LINE TRANSACTION PROCESSING
ROBERT E LAKIN
Director of Strategy Tandem Computers
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
The Future of OLTP
- P Presented to
SIA/Dataquest
By Bob Lakin Tandem
September 29,1988
•«jrrANOEM COMPUTERS
OLTP: From the Sidelines...
"OLTP reminds ma of the story of Cinderella: a poor step-child picking the lentils from the ashes while batch goes to the ball..."
ESI [*S»I
SIA/Oataquest Conferenea
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 1 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
• jFTANDEM COMPUTERS
.into the Mainstream
..but now somebody's passing around the glass slipper, and guess who it fitsl"
..MS^ SIA/Oataquast Confaranca
-«J)TANOEM COMPUTERS
^^ Trends: Where the databases are
Rsg^onal, OlitribuiM
• IHQ / Regions retain control over databases
• Databases distributing to regions, LAN servers
' More images & graphics: massive database size
• DB of record = existing OBs + new relational SQL DBs
• Database of record require very large, high availability storage
• Key Issue: access from more locations, more people
SIA/Oataquast Conferenca
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 2 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
• jfTANDEM COMPUTERS
Trends: Where the MIPS are:
Cheap IMIPS move into branch locations—more than in ail the computer rooms
Short list: iVIS/DOS, OS/2, Mac, UNIX
"Private" computing — ^ departmental computing — ^ corporate computing
Local copies of corporate data through upload/download
Potential: new, more complex transactions
Key issues: factoring out differences and geography
SIA/Oataquast Confarane*
- jTTANDEM COMPOTERS
^ ^ Trends: Connecting, little sharing
• Wide-area private networlcs going standard (OSI/SNA)
• Wide-area public networks going standard (OSI/ISDN)
• LANs going standard (Ethernet, TCP/IP, LAN Manager, Token Ring)
• LAN/WAN interconnection forming the new Enterprise Network
Rflgiond. Olstributsd
SIA/Oataquast Confarenca
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
" Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
• jn'ANDEM COMPUTERS
~ Issue: Effective Use of MIPS and Data
Resource mapping (central, regional, local) based on business needs Cheap desktop mips ideal for transaction capture
Mission critical databases will need fault tolerance, high availability, data integrity Going beyond connectivity to co'Operative processing
OLTP provides the model— client/server architecture
SIA/Oataquast Confaranc*
Enterprise Transaction Processing
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 4 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
-«jn"ANDEM COMPLfTERS
" Enterprise Transaction Processing (ETP)
• Hosts and workstations will be integrated on standard nstworlcs
• Integration wiil be based on applications requiring siiared data
• Transaction processing is the ideal model for managing shared resources
SIA/Oataquast Con<ar«nea
'^ANOEM COMPUTERS
Components of ETP:
TRANSACTION-RICH
ENVIRONMENT
ENTERPRISE SUPPORT
SIA/Dataquast Coniarenca IP
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 5 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
•^jfTANDEM COMPLfTERS
Transaction-Rich Environment
OQ • Higher volumes, many new applications
• Greater complexity as micros add the dimension of graphics and image
• Routing transaction across internal and external systems (payments systems. Electronic Data Interchange)
a SIA/Dataquast Conferanca •11
•^ITTANDEM COMPLfTERS
••• Enterprise-Wide Databases
• New databases in SQL—slow but sure migration of existing databases to relational
• A new standard to link databases
• Single database for OLTP and query
• Flexibility In distribution
• Full transaction protection across multiple databases and locations
• Parallel architecture for extremely high performance
• Micros own the tools and some of the databases
®
SIA/Oataquast Conferanca it
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Pages Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
• jfTANDEM COMPUTERS
••! [ Cooperative Processing
• Transaction systems inciuda routing systems
• Application arciiitecture migrates to client (requester) / server
• Hosts take on the character of shared resource managers/servers
• Open architectures allow deploying new enterprise-wide applications across hosts/micros and across multiple vendors
SIA/Oataquast Confaranea 13
•«j|TANDEM COMPUTERS
••• Enterprise Support
• Multi-vendor service
• Partnerships in specialties—geography, devices
• Systems integration and consulting
• Electronic training delivery
• Electronic logistics
A.
m SIA/Oataquast Confaranea 14,
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 7 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Handouts
• jrTANDEM COMPUTERS
The Next Five Years
Transaction processing dominates new applications
Hosts manage shared resources and bacl(bone networics
l\Alcros and LANs instrument branch locations
Standards define database and application envrionments
Cooperative processing architecture enables enterprise-wide applications
SIA/Oataquast Confaranc* 15
Thanks!
- P TANDEM COMPUTERS
Tandem at SIA/Dataquest September 29, 1988
Page 8 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Dataquest acompanyof The OunStBiadstreet Corpofation
Dataquest n n a company of MMMM The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
HDTV/VIDEO
Richard J. Elkus, Jr. Chairman and CEO Prometrix Corporation
Mr. Elkus is Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and a Director of Prometrix Corporation. He is also Director and Vice Chairman of the Board of Integrated Systems, Inc. Previously, he was a Director and Chairman of Pacific Measurements, Inc.; Director of Acacia Sales Corporation; Executive Vice President and General Manager of Geometries, Inc.; General Manager of Gould Medical Systems; and President, Chief Executive Officer, and a Director of Eyrie Company. Mr. Elkus is also the Director and a founder of Tomex Corporation and cochairman of the AEA Task Force on HDTV. Mr. Elkus received a B.A. degree from Stanford University and an M.B.A. degree from Tuck School of Business Administration at Dartmouth College.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
Ite3sw»>7.i«i <»7ni^:5Bl
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Marlcets for Semiconductors
^ \ ^
HDTV/VIDEO
RICHARD J. ELKUS, JR. Chairman and CEO
Prometrix Corporation
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
TOWARD A NATIONAL STRATEGY
THE STRATEGY
OF LEVERAGE
RICHARD J. ELKUS, JR. CHAIRMAN
PROMETRIX CORPORATION SEPTEMBER 2, 1988
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
WHAT IS HDTV
1. TWICE THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.
2. A PICTURE QUALITY SIMILAR TO A 35 MM SLIDE.
3. CD QUALITY SOUND.
4. THE LARGER THE SCREEN THE BETTER IT LOOKS.
5. IN TIME 100 MEGABITS OF MEMORY VERSUS 1 MEGABIT TODAY.
6. AND THE UNITED STATES IS A NON-PARTICIPANT.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
SUMMARY
1. THE HDTV MARKET REPRESENTS A COMPLETE MERGING OF TECHNOLOGIES ESSENTIAL TO THE DOMINATION OF THE CONSUMER ELECTRONICS MARKET AND MAJOR PORTIONS OF THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND COMPUTER MARKETS. THE NATION WHICH
. BECOMES THE KEY SUPPLIER OF PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION, AND RECEIVING EQUIPMENT WITHIN THE HDTV MARKETS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED A PRINCIPAL MEANS TO CONTROL A MAJOR PORTION OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP AND EQUIPMENT BUSINESS AND. THEREFORE, HAVE ACHIEVED A SIGNIFICANT STEP TOWARD TOTAL TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY IN THE YEARS TO COME.
2. WHEN THE FIRST CONCEPT OF A VCR WAS INTRODUCED THE UNITED STATES WAS BY FAR THE TECHNOLOGICAL LEADER AND OWNED THE BASIC PATENT POSITIONS IN THE FIELD.
3. AS WE FACE THE INTRODUCTION OF HDTV. THE UNITED STATES IS FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES A NON PARTICIPANT.
4. IF THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT ULTIMATELY BECOME A MAJOR IF NOT PREDOMINANT SUPPLIER OF PRODUCTS TO THE HDTV MARKET PLACE, THE RESULTING CHANGE I N TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP WILL HAVE AN EXTRAORDINARILY NEGATIVE EFFECT ON OUR STANDARD OF LIVING, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP, MILITARY PREPAREDNESS AND THE GENERAL CONTROL OF OUR DESTINY AS A NATION.
1 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
TACTICAL SUCCESS - STRATEGIC LOSS
1. THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN THE SOURCE FOR MUCH OF THE WORLD'S TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION.
2. BUT IN A WORLD WHERE THE GRAND STRATEGY IS TO DOMINATE INTERRELATED END USE MARKETS THOSE TECHNOLOGIES MORE OFTEN THAN NOT HAVE BECOME A TACTICAL WEAPON IN THE HANDS OF THE COMPETITION.
2
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
SIZE OF THE ELECTRONICS MARKET
TO PROVIDE A FRAME OF REFERENCE FOR THIS PRESENTATION I WOULD LIKE TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF THE SIZE OF THE ELECTRONICS MARKET.
1. ELECTRONICS IS NOW THE LARGEST DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES AND IS GROWING THREE TIMES FASTER THAN ALL OTHER MANUFACTURING.
2. THE WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKET HAS BECOME A MAMMOTH BUSINESS WITH A COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATE APPROACHING 9%. HOWEVER, THE PROJECTED GROWTH RATE FOR THE ELECTRONICS MARKET IN JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO BE 40% GREATER THAN THAT OF THE UNITED STATES.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
1987 UNITED STATES SALES (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
ELECTRONICS $235
CHEMICALS $215
AUTOMOBILES AND PARTS $201
MACHINERY $156
PETROLEUM $130
CAHNERS
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKET (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
ISfiS 1332
EUROPE $139 $182
JAPAN $246 $360
UNITED STATES $258 $332
OTHER $127 $200
TOTAL $770 $1074
DATAQUEST
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
THE STRATEGY OF LEVERAGE
WITH THOSE STATISTICS AS A FRAME OF REFERENCE, IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY OF THE JAPANESE VERSUS THAT OF THE UNITED STATES.
1. LIKE INDEPENDENT CIRCLES, WE IN THE UNITED STATES APPROACH PRODUCTS, MARKETS AND BUSINESSES AS SEPARATE ENTERPRISES WITH LITTLE DESIRE OR MECHANISM TO COORDINATE STRATEGY AND DIRECTION.
2. THE JAPANESE, ON THE OTHER HAND, WHILE PROMOTING INDIVIDUAL INITIATIVE, ASSUME THAT ALL CIRCLES ARE INTERRELATED AND INTERDEPENDENT AND AS SUCH FEEL THAT COORDINATION OF STRATEGY AND DIRECTION IS ESSENTIAL
3. THUS IN JAPAN:
EVERY TECHNOLOGY BECOMES THE STEPPING STONE FOR THE NEXT.
EVERY PRODUCT BECOMES THE BASIS FOR ANOTHER.
AND THE RESULTING EFFICIENCIES OF SCALE ARE ENORMOUS.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
THE STRATEGY OF LEVERAGE
UNITED STATES
JAPAN
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DEFINITION
IN ORDER TO EXPLAIN THE JAPANESE STRATEGY MORE FULLY I WOULD LIKE TO DEFINE THE PHRASE "END USE MARKETS".
END USE MARKETS MEANS:
MARKETS FOR THOSE STAND-ALONE PRODUCTS WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANT VALUE TO THE INDIVIDUAL CONSUMER.
FOR EXAMPLE:
A VIDEO RECORDER, 35MM CAMERA OR PERSONAL COMPUTER. NOT THE COMPONENTS THAT MAKE UP THESE PRODUCTS.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DOMINATiON OF INTERRELATED END USE MARKETS
THE JAPANESE HAVE LEARNED THAT PUSHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRODUCT TO ITS LOGICAL EXTREME RESULTS IN AN INTERRELATIONSHIP OF THAT PRODUCT WITH OTHER PRODUCTS.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE FOCUSING SYSTEM ON THE 35 MM CAMERA BECOMES THE FOCUSING SYSTEM FOR THE VCR. CONVERSELY. THE AUTOMATIC ELECTRONIC SYSTEM IN THE VCR BECOMES THE AUTOMATIC ELECTRONIC SYSTEM IN THE 35 MM CAMERA.
AND THE JAPANESE HAVE ALSO LEARNED THAT PUSHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET TO ITS LOGICAL EXTREME RESULTS IN AN INTERRELATIONSHIP OF THAT MARKET WITH OTHER MARKETS.
FOR EXAMPLE. THE SUCCESS OF THE VCR CREATED THE MARKET FOR PRERECORDED TAPE (WHICH IS NOW GREATER THAN THE FILM MARKET FOR THEATERS). CONVERSELY. CONTROL OF A LARGE MEDIA PRODUCER CAN INFLUENCE THE STANDARD FORMAT FOR A VCR. (NOTE THAT SONY HAS PURCHASED CBS RECORDS.)
8 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DOMINATION OF INTERRELATED END USE MARKETS -2
THE JAPANESE HAVE ALSO LEARNED THAT:
1 . DOMINATION OF INTERRELATED END-USE MARKETS PROVIDES THE ECONOMIC STRENGTH NECESSARY TO DOMINATE SEMICONDUCTOR DEVELOPMENT.
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE VCR THE JAPANESE WENT FROM A MINORITY POSITION IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST PRODUCER OF SEMICONDUCTORS IN FOUR YEARS.
THE VCR BY ITSELF CONSUMES APPROXIMATELY 12% OF THE TOTAL SEMICONDUCTOR OUTPUT OF JAPAN AND NEARLY 5% OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR OUTPUT OF THE WORLD.
2. DOMINATION OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET PROVIDES A KEY STEP TOWARDS CONTROL OF ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS IN GENERAL.
3. ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER A R E FUNDAMENTAL TO ALMOST EVERY OTHER PRODUCT AND MARKET.
loon D..^ Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
WE FACE A GRAND STRATEGY:
THE DOMINATION OF INTERRELATED END USE MARKETS
AGAINST WHICH
NO SINGLE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OR EXPERTISE CAN BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
10
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
INSTAVIDEO DEFINED
AND NOW I'D LIKE TO TELL YOU A STORY THAT HAS BEEN LABELLED BOTH FASCINATING AND TRAGIC BUT UNDERSTANDING ITS IMPLICATIONS CAN AND SHOULD PRODUCE A HAPPY ENDING.
TWENTY YEARS AGO I WALKED INTO THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF AMPEX WITH A DETAILED PRODUCT PLAN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HOME VIDEO RECORDER.
THE FINAL RECOMMENDATION IN THE PLAN WAS THE PRODUCTION OF A HOME VIDEO RECORDING SYSTEM ENCAPSULATING THE CAMERA, RECORDER AND PLAYBACK COMPONENTS IN A SINGLE UNIT.
THIS PRODUCT PLAN RESULTED IN THE ESTABLISMENT OF AN ENGINEERING TEAM WHICH WAS COMBINED WITH THE EDUCATIONAL AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS DIVISION OF AMPEX CORPORATION, OF WHICH I WAS GENERAL MANAGER.
IN 1970, WE INTRODUCED THE PRODUCT AND CALLED IT
INSTAVIDEO.
11
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
SEPTEMBER 2, 1970 •INSTAVIDEO" SPECIFICATIONS
RECORDER/PLAYER
SIZE: i r x 1 3 " x 4 1/2" WEIGHT: 15 POUNDS WITH BATTERIES PORTABLE BATTERY OPERATED CARTRIDGE LOADING PLAYS ON AC POWER WITH AUXILIARY POWER PAK TWO INDEPENDENT AUDIO CHANNELS. INCLUDING STEREO PLAYBACK SLOW MOTION AND STOP ACTION ELEMENTARY ELECTRONIC EDITING CAPABILITY
CAMERA
WEIGHT: 5 POUNDS 4 TO 1 ZOOM LENS STANDARD
12 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
AMPEX POSITION IN WORLD MARKETS - 1970
1. DURING THE PERIOD 1966 TO 1970 APPROXIMATELY 65,000 LOW COST VIDEO RECORDERS HAD BEEN PLACED IN SERVICE THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.
2. AS OF 1970. IN TERMS OF DOLLARS, AMPEX REPRESENTED BETWEEN 70 AND 80% OF THE WORLDWIDE MARKET FOR VIDEO TAPE RECORDERS.
3. AMPEX ESTIMATED THAT BY 1975 THE MARKET FOR CLOSED CIRCUIT VIDEO TAPE RECORDERS WOULD APPROXIMATE 200 MILLION DOLLARS.
4. IN 1972 AMPEX AND SONY WERE APPROXIMATELY THE SAME SIZE (ABOUT 450 MILLION DOLLARS IN GROSS REVENUES).
5. IN DOLLAR TERMS, THE TWO PRINCIPAL COMPANIES PRODUCING VIDEO TAPE RECORDING PRODUCTS IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN THE WORLD DURING THIS PERIOD WERE AMPEX CORPORATION AND RCA.
6. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE BASIC PATENTS SIGNIFICANT TO VIDEO RECORDING WERE THE PROPERTY OF AMPEX AT THIS TIME. CERTAIN CROSS LICENSING ARRANGEMENTS EXISTED BETWEEN RCA. AND AMPEX.
7. DURING THIS PERIOD ALL FOREIGN PRODUCERS OF VIDEO TAPE RECORDERS OPERATED UNDER LICENSE TO AMPEX CORPORATION.
13
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
TERMINATION OF INSTAVIDEO
HOWEVER:
1. DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1969 THROUGH 1972 AMPEX BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE CASH FLOW PROBLEMS.
2. TOP MANAGEMENT DETERMINED THAT IT NEEDED HELP FROM TOSHIBA CORPORATION TO DEVELOP A MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY. IN THAT REGARD. EXISTING TECHNICAL INFORMATION PERTAINING TO INSTAVIDEO WAS TRANSFERRED TO TOSHIBA.
3. OPPORTUNITIES FOR JOINT VENTURE WITH ANOTHER UNITED STATES COMPANY WERE TURNED DOWN OVER CONCERN THAT ANOTHER DOMESTIC COMPETITOR WOULD BE ESTABLISHED.
4. AMID PROFIT AND CASH PROBLEMS CULMINATING IN A SIGNIFICANT CORPORATE LOSS IN 1972, THE INSTAVIDEO PROJECT WAS FORMALLY DROPPED.
14
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
VCR MARKET - 1985 TO PRESENT
THE YEAR 2000 WILL BE 10 YEARS AFTER THE EXPECTED INTRODUCTION DATE OF HDTV VCRS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM JAPAN. MANY EXPECT THAT HDTV WILL BE A MARKET IN FULL BLOOM BY THEN. 1985 WAS 10 YEARS AFTER THE INTRODUCTION OF THE VCR INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM JAPAN.
1. IN 1985 IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT MORE VCRS WERE SOLD IN THE UNITED STATES THAN PERSONAL COMPUTERS.
2. IN 1985 PRODUCTION RATES IN JAPAN ALONE HAD REACHED 2.5 MILLION UNITS PER MONTH.
3. THE VCR MARKET TODAY PROBABLY APPROXIMATES 15 BILLION DOLLARS WORLDWIDE AND AFFECTS VIRTUALLY EVERY ASPECT OF OUR LIVES.
4. UNITED STATES PRODUCERS OF VIDEO RECORDERS REPRESENT LESS THAN 2% OF THE TOTAL MARKET.
5. THE MAJORITY OF THE VIDEO TAPE RECORDERS USED IN THE PROFESSIONAL, EDUCATIONAL, AND INDUSTRIAL MARKETS ARE THE HALF INCH VARIETY RESULTING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE VCR.
6. THE MARKET FOR VIDEO CASSETTES IS LARGER TODAY THAN THE THEATER MARKET FOR FILM.
15
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
DOMINATION OF INTERRELATED AND END USE MARKETS
DURING THE PERIOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE VCR. THE JAPANESE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX PROCEEDED TO DOMINATE OR TAKE A COMMANDING POSITION IN THE FOLLOWING MARKETS:
A. THE VIDEO TAPE RECORDER MARKET INCLUDING PROFESSIONAL. COMMERCIAL AND CONSUMER APPLICATIONS.
B. THE VIDEO CAMERA MARKET INCLUDING PROFESSIONAL. COMMERCIAL AND CONSUMER APPLICATIONS.
C. LENS MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY.
D. SMALL PRECISION ELECTRONIC MOTOR DESIGN.
E. AUTOMATIC FOCUSING SYSTEMS FOR 35 MM AND VIDEO CAMERAS.
F. THE 35 MM CAMERA MARKET.
G. THE MAJORITY OF THE WORLDS TELEVISION RECEIVER AND MONITOR DESIGN AND MANUFACTURE.
H. THE CONSUMER AND COMMERCIAL AUDIO RECORDER MARKETS.
I. THE COMPACT DISK PLAYBACK SYSTEM MARKET.
J. THE VIDEO DISK PLAYBACK MARKET.
K. HIGH SPEED DIGITAL FIBER TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT.
IN SUPPORT OF THE DEMANDS OF THESE END USE AND ANCILLARY COMPONENT MARKETS. JAPAN HAS DEVELOPED A SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP INDUSTRY GREATER THAN THAT OF THE UNITED STATES AND NEARLY THREE TIMES THAT OF EUROPE; AND A SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY ESTIMATED TO BE GREATER THAN THAT OF THE UNITED STATES AND THREE TIMES THAT OF EUROPE.
16
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
BYPRODUCTS OF SUCCESS
THE RESULT OF A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY OF INTERRELATED END USE MARKET DOMINATION PRODUCES CERTAIN INTERESTING RESULTS WHICH OFTEN OFFER FURTHER OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND ONES SPAN OF CONTROL
1. SONY HAS PURCHASED CBS RECORDS.
2. THE FORMER EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF RCA CORPORATION IN CHARGE OF RCA'S VIDEO TAPE RECORDING ACTIVITIES IS NOW PRESIDENT OF SONY CORPORATION OF AMERICA.
3. THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF AMPEX CORPORATION IS NOW EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF SONY CORPORATION OF AMERICA.
AND AS AN ASIDE:
4. TOTAL SALES OF AMPEX TODAY ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MILLION DOLLARS.
5. SONY'S SALES LAST YEAR EXCEEDED 10 BILLION DOLLARS.
6. GE/RCA HAS SPUN OFF ITS CONSUMER ELECTRONICS BUSINESS AND IS SHARING CURRENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENSES OF THE GENERAL SARNOFF LABORATORIES WITH SGS THOMSON. ULTIMATELY THE PATENT POSITION OF GENERAL SARNOFF LABORATORIES WILL BECOME THE PROPERTY OF SGS THOMSON.
17 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
STRATEGY: SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM
A MAJOR PHILOSOPHICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN HAS HELPED ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF THE JAPANESE STRATEGY.
1. TO MANY IN THE UNITED STATES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS THE ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT. EITHER AS A VENTURE CAPITAL STARTUP OR WITHIN A LARGER CORPORATE ENVIRONMENT. HAS BEEN DEFINED AS THE QUEST TO ESTABLISH A PARTICULAR TECHNOLOGICAL EXPERTISE AS A STAND-ALONE MONEY MAKING MACHINE IN THE SHORTEST POSSIBLE TIME.
2. IN JAPAN THE ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT HAS BEEN DEFINED AS THE ASSUMPTION OR DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNOLOGICAL EXPERTISE THAT IS TO BE PUSHED TO ITS LOGICAL EXTREME SO THAT IT MAY BE INTEGRATED WITH OTHER TECHNOLOGICAL DISCIPLINES FOR THE PURPOSE OF DOMINATING INTERRELATED END USE MARKETS OVER THE LONG TERM.
3. THE JAPANESE SYSTEM RESULTS IN A MASSIVE CONCENTRATION OF NATIONAL RESOURCES ON TARGETED MARKETS IN AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER THAN IS PRESENTLY POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES.
18
°^* ' ' ®®' Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
AND NOW I WOULD LIKE TO INTRODUCE YOU TO
HIGH DEFINITION TELEVISION
19 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
HIGH DEFINITION TELEVISION PORTRAYS LIFE IN VIVID SPLASHES OF
BREATHTAKING COLOR AND SOUND
BUT THE PICTURE MAY ALSO REFLECT THE EBBING TIDE OF UNITED STATES
TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP
20
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
HDTV: A BASIS FOR BROAD TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
THE HDTV MARKET WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE UNITED STATES UPON INTRODUCTION OF NEWLY DESIGNED JAPANESE VIDEO RECORDERS, CAMERAS AND TELEVISION RECEIVERS SOMETIME IN 1990 ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS.
SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE HDTV MARKET WILL BY ITSELF REPRESENT 25 TO 35 BILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY BY THE YEAR 2000.
HDTV WILL EFFECT AND IMPROVE THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENTIRE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY.
THE HDTV SYSTEM OFFERS A STRONG MONETARY INCENTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MANY STRATEGICALLY ESSENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL AREAS INCLUDING SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SPEED MICROPROCESSORS AND MEMORY DEVICES WITH VASTLY GREATER STORAGE CAPACITY. HDTV MAY WELL PROVIDE AN ESSENTIAL BASIS FOR COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLAT SCREEN DISPLAY. OF COURSE, HDTV WILL PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR FURTHER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE VIDEO TAPE RECORDER, TELEVISION DISPLAY SYSTEM, RELATED CAMERA EQUIPMENT AND MAGNETIC TAPE.
21
'^^^'^^^^ Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
AND FOR TOMORROW
BUT THERE IS MORE:
1. ASSUME THAT THE VCR IS NOTHING MORE THAN A STORAGE DEVICE FOR MOVING PICTURES.
2. IN TIME THE HDTV RECORDER MAY BECOME A PLUG IN MODULE SIMILAR TO A CARTRIDGE AND THEREFORE A COMPONENT PART TO THE COMPUTER.
3. AT THIS POINT THE MERGING OF TECHNOLOGIES MAY WELL GIVE THE JAPANESE AN ADDITIONAL CAPABILITY IN THEIR QUEST TO BECOME DOMINANT IN THE WORLD'S COMPUTER MARKET.
UNITED STATES' DOMINATION OF THE COMPUTER MARKET REPRESENTS THE GREATEST SINGLE ECONOMIC SUPPORT FOR THE UNITED STATES-SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY.
22 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
HDTV AND THE FIBER OPTICS MARKET
THE HDTV MARKET MAY, TO THE EXTENT IT EXISTS WITHIN A GIVEN NATION, PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT MONETARY INCENTIVE TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSTALLED FIBER OPTICS COMMUNICATIONS BASE.
SUCH A NATIONAL FIBER OPTIC NETWORK WILL PROVIDE A BASIS FOR SUBSTANTIAL ADVANCES IN COMPUTER TELECOMMUNICATIONS AS WELL AS INTEGRATED HDTV SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE A MAJOR BEARING ON THE SPEED AND VERSATILITY OF D E F E N S E COMMUNICATION REQUIREMENTS AND, THEREFORE, MILITARY PREPAREDNESS.
FIBER OPTIC NETWORKS MAY ALTER THE METHOD OF TRANSMISSION OF TELEVISION PROGRAMMING AND AS SUCH MAY AFFECT THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF THE BROADCAST NETWORKS AND CABLE SYSTEMS. ACCESS TO A MAJOR FIBER OPTIC NETWORK MAY OFFER A MEASURE OF FOREIGN CONTROL OVER THE UNITED STATES TELEVISION INDUSTRY THAT DOES NOT EXIST TODAY. (PERHAPS SONrS MOVE IN THE MEDIA MARKET HAS BROADER IMPLICATIONS.)
23 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
STRATEGIC WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
1. SUCCESS IN HDTV MAY WELL BE CONSIDERED CRITICAL TO THE JAPANESE IN THEIR BATTLE TO ACHIEVE STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD.
2. TO REVERSE THIS SITUATION, AND IT MUST BE REVERSED IF THE UNITED STATES IS TO SURVIVE AS A MAJOR ECONOMIC POWER WITH ITS POLITICAL SYSTEM INTACT, WE MUST COMMIT ON A COORDINATED AND COOPERATIVE BASIS O U R TECHNOLOGICAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENERGY WITH THE SPECIFIC TACTICAL GOAL OF BECOMING A MAJOR SUPPLIER OF END USE HDTV VCRS, CAMERAS, DISPLAY SYSTEMS AND, OF COURSE, RELATED COMPONENTS.
3. NO STANDARD ESTABLISHED BY A COMMITTEE OR GOVERNMENT AGENCY WILL WIN THE BATTLE; NO SINGLE TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH WILL WIN THE BATTLE; AND NO SINGLE COMPANY WILL WIN THE BATTLE.
4. FOR SEVERAL YEARS WE WILL FEEL THE HEAT OF COMPETITION WHEREIN WE HAVE LITTLE TO OFFER IN THE WAY OF PRODUCT.
5. BUT HDTV OFFERS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH THE COMPETITION, THOUGH FORMIDABLE, MUST REESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT SUPPLIER IN THE FIELD. MAJOR MARKET PENETRATION BY ANY COMPETITOR WILL BE SEVERAL YEARS AWAY. THAT WINDOW MAY APPROXIMATE 5 TO 10 YEARS. THIS IS A SHORT TIME TO REESTABLISH OUR INDUSTRIAL INITIATIVE IN THESE AREAS BUT SUCH A GOAL IS ACHIEVABLE.
24
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
OPTIONS
1. SEVERAL MAJOR INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES WITH SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES THAT CAN BRING SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGICAL, STRENGTH IN RECORDER DESIGN. VIDEO PROCESSING, DISPLAY SYSTEMS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTER EXPERTISE AND A MAJOR UNDERSTANDING OF SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING MUST COME TOGETHER UNDER SOME OFFICIAL UMBRELLA THAT PROVIDES A LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSION AND COOPERATION.
2. THE GOVERNMENT MUST PROVIDE THAT LEGAL FRAMEWORK AND SOMETHING ELSE BESIDES: THE LEADERSHIP NECESSARY TO DEVELOP, IN CONCERT WITH PRIVATE SECTOR LEADERS, A NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGY. THAT STRATEGY MUST CONSIDER AMERICA'S INDUSTRIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIRECTION AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT DIRECTION FOR BOTH FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMPETITORS.
3. THE GOVERNMENT MAY WISH TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC CONTRACTS FOR KEY END USE ITEMS IN ORDER TO SPEED UP RESPONSE TIME AND REDUCE THE RISKS OF DEVELOPMENT.
4. OUR TAX CODE MUST REFLECT AND OFFER INCENTIVE FOR THE RISK OF INVESTING VENTURE CAPITAL AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DOLLARS IN THIS FIELD.
25 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
OPTIONS CONTINUED
OUR PHILOSOPHY OF QUICK RETURNS ON INVESTED CAPITAL MUST BE ALTERED TO RECOGNIZE THE LONG TERM STRATEGIC GOALS OF OUR COMPETITION. WHEN OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT COMPETITION WAS DOMESTIC AND WE OPERATED BY THE SAME RULES, A QUICK RETURN ON INVESTMENT WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME. BUT TODAY THE GAME IS DIFFERENT. IT IS THE UNITED STATES VS. JAPAN AND EUROPE. TO BECOME COMPETITIVE IN WORLD MARKETS IS ESSENTIAL FOR OUR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SURVIVAL. TO BECOME COMPETITIVE WE MUST UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF INTERRELATED END-USE MARKETS. TO BECOME COMPETITIVE WE NEED A NATIONAL STRATEGY.
26 Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
FCC BROADCAST STANDARDS
There may well be several standards associated with the development of HDTV. These standards will be applied to tape format, software architecture, video production equipment, fiber optic transmission, other non broadcast transmission systems and direct broadcast transmission. This statement pertains only to direct broadcast transmission.
In my opinion the FCC in conjunction with appropriate and related standards committees should pick an HDTV direct broadcast transmission standard that meets the following criteria in order of priority:
1. The chosen standard should provide the basis for HDTV system development over an extended period of time approximating the current life of the NTSC
« standard, now about 40 years old.
2. Within the concept of longevity the standard should enable the HDTV system to reach its full performance potential.
3. Within the parameters of longevity and performance it would be desirable for that standard to permit the installation of an evolutionary system using, where possible, existing production, transmission and television reception equipment in order to minimize the level of capital investment at any given time.
4. The selected FCC direct broadcast standard for HDTV should emphasize the efficient utilization of bandwidth.
The timing of this effort should be coordinated if possible with the industrial group discussions on the subject of entering the HDTV market referred to under OPTIONS in my report on the Strategic Implication of HDTV.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreel Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Dataquest acofraianyof The Dwi& Uacbtfc^ CorpoTAioh
DataQuest ' n ' n a company of l i i t The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
MILITARY
Gregory L. Sheppard Senior Industry Analyst MilAero Technology Service Dataquest Incorporated
^x^pb4«r«vK^^
Mr. Sheppard is a Senior Industry Analyst in Dataquest's Semiconductor User and Applications Group. Specifically, he is responsible for the MilAero Technology Service. He also tracks the military, automotive, and industrial markets. Before joining Dataquest, Mr. Sheppard worked at Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation as Corporate Manager of Business Analysis. In that capacity, he managed corporate market research, performed product and market forecasts, provided competitive positioning assessments, and maintained the 10-year market plan. He was also a board member of Worldwide Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Inc., and was Fairchild's liaison to the SIA and the AEA. Earlier, Mr. Sheppard was a Hardware Design Manager and a Systems Engineer at GTE Government Systems. While there, he specialized in C 1 systems, man-machine interfaces, and the design of decision aid systems. Mr. Sheppard received a B.S.E.E./C.E. degree from the University of Colorado and an M.S. degree in Systems Management from the University of Southern California.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCTATTON/DATAQUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
iag306006.iMG o/ni/m-OEi>\
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Maricets for Semiconductors
MILITARY
GREGORY L SHEPPARD Senior Industry Analyst
MilAero Technology Service Dataquest Incorporated
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
to (O
o a a CD
-a ^ a yr 0)
<• c a <»
& M _ (B D 3 O
91 S« y8
Si 0 0 ^ jl; Q ^ ^ 3 J
CO ^
gco O CO
~- S s!a
r^o iS9 CJ-D ^ O
o a
o no <£) M
MILITARY AND AEROSPAC SEMICONDUCTOR MARKE AND PROCUREMENT ISS
Greg Sheppard Senior Industry Analyst MilAero Technology Service Semiconductor User and Applications Dataquest, Incorporated
We 're Taking Off !
I>0 (D O 33 d a a •V fij O TT CD
m CD ^ a w _ 0) 3 3 O
< - ^ o -a i8§ 5a g" CO o
Si JZ; o
3 J
i" 00 ^ O f i o
O CD
sit 559 C3T3 ^ o
^ ^ AGENDA
Political Environment
Systems Technology and Opportun
Semiconductor Outlook
Procurement Issues
fe
o ro CO
ro
ro (O o 3) a Q. (D •V
^ o 7r a
< ^ • a w _ B) 3 3 O C-O
-s l 5S u8 Si ^ o
si CD ^ O p o
O CD
•^ S
i!a JS. 3o
IS ^ _ o -nS g o
i 00
^&.,tf'!^ AGENDA
Political Environment
->j o r j (O
I h « l M _ 0) 3 3 O C-° o -a
• »
5a g" ^1 1
~ j o M CO to
ESTIMATED DEFENSE BUDGETS UNDER ALTER ADMINISTRATIONS TOTAL BUDGET AUTHO
Billions of Dollars 400
380
360
00 3--^ to
fee --I c 00 = Ofio O 03 ^ S S^CL t ? 0>
!l <g o 2-3 ^ o -nn. ^o
o 00
340
320
300
280
- ^
" • "
260-^ \— ^ 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Source: Dataques
i I h < c -"•a wZ §S 0-°
5a
3 NJJ
^\ 00,5
-X S.
3 g i
00 ^ go. O DO ^ S alt
(D
O3T3 -^ O
71S
o 00
o to ro
MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL FACT
• Superpower conciliation
• Emphasis on conventional and verification systems
• "Big Ticket" contract stretch-ou
• Commercialization of procureme
(£> O
oi a.
-• ^ o ^ (u
- CO
w _ a) u 3 O
k° O "D
S9 - 0)
5a g» u8 ^^ Si 00,5 ^ o °5* 3 J ^ ^ 00 ^
Ofio O OJ ^ S ffi'» Si
i "H O •ro CO ro
AGENDA
Political Environment
Systems Technology and Opportu
(O
o a a CD
T3 fij O ^ CD 5 l < ' ffl <D
- a M _ B) D 3 O <^9 O T3 - 01
9& S" CO o
5 ^ 1 ^ 9. 6 S J feo 00 ^
Of io O CD
^ S
Sl&
S-
3o SS5 C3T3 ^ o -nS
I •7J o [\3 CO N)
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY/AERO ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCT
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Billions of Dollars
CAGR 1988-1994
5.0%
12
89.4 93.2 95.8
1987 1988 1989 1992 1994
Source. Dataquest.
I>0 (O o Q.' a. CD
•a
HIGH GROWTH APPLICATIO u O ^ CD
S CD
- a CO _ tU 3 3 O C - O O "D 89 • £8.
5a S» CO o
si 0 0 ^
^ o °5 s j 6 o CD - " o p . o gj •^ S s!g
CD
3o C3T3 ^ O
TlS
o M CO
ro
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
Digital avionics
Fiber optics
Electro-optic reconnaissance, visio targeting
Smart decoys
Simulator/cockpit graphics
no (O
o a a (D
•o ej D ; c 03
91 <• c
CO _ B) 3 3 O <-° o -o S5 • 0)
5^ s» ri'n w o ^ ^ 5 ^ 1 0 0 ^
^ Q
g-H 3 J 6o 00 ^ op, O O)
•^s s!t ^ a ::Jo SS5 C J t 3 . ^ O
-nS g o
§
- j j o ro (O ro
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY/AEROS ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTIO
TOTAL MILITARY AND CIVILIAN
Total Military Radar Sonar Missile-Weapon Space Navigation Communication Electronic Warfare Reconnaissance Aircraft Systems Computer Systems Simulation and Training Misc. Equipment
Total Civilian Radar Space Navigation/Communication Aircraft Fligtit Systems Simulation and Training
1988 93224
81878 11034 3766
10116 7041 2272 7662 6461 3689 7140 7873 1029
14897
11347 2961 3932 1096 3038
321
Millions
1989 96812
83366 11124
3791 10360
7066 2316 7801 6604 3789 7267 8063 1062
16134
12446 3186 4432 1199 3309
348
of Dollars
1994 124580
105681 13316 4631
13937 9418 2941
10095 7292 4862 9489
10710 1474
17616
18898 4622 7114 1814 4827
621
Source: Dataquest
(O O
3 a a. a -o ^ a 7r 03
o f -^8 CO _ B 3 3 O
Jr° O "O
Sg9 • D)
cS8
Si jr; o
00 ^
gco O CD
^ s s;& 2a r io U) O COTD ^ O
-nS
'S o 03
o ^ 5 (O ro
ESTIMATED GEOGRAPHIC MILITARY/AERO ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION
Total • $ 93.2 Billion Total • $ 124.6 Billio
North America 67%
North America 66%
Rett of World 6%
Western Europe 28%
Europe 28%
1988 1994
Source: Dataques
CO
< : ^
cc S (D ^
I o o CD
o DC Q_
% H CO <
o LJJ DC
O LL
(5
I -
o Q .
LU
LJJ
a. CO
l O CO
o CO
in CVJ
0 3
CO
0)
a) 3 0>
<
09
a> 3 CT 03
• » - •
CO
O
y
i2 ^
o = cvj o
D
lO ««
o
CQ
- lO
— o
E CO u. O) o
o
E o m C\J
GQ
D CO
3 Hi
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
i
i a; o
-$ l CO _ 01 D 3 O C-R o -o a o -"s $ a CO o
s ^ l 0°^ jl; Q §-H S J
00 ^
ge. O CD
s!g !l CJT3 ^ O
^ ^ AGENDA
Political Environment
Systems Technology and Opportuni
Semiconductor Outlook
o 3
fe
o to (O
ro (O o 3) d a (D
"D
ej D TT a) of <• c
-*s w _ 0) 3 3 O
Jr° o -o (D r
0)
5a g°> CO o ^1 1 00 =
J^ 2. ^:;!
sg-^i OD •= gco O CD -~ S 5!g _.a ^ o !S9 03 "D •~. O
TlS go o 00
•vl
o lO (O lO
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY ELECT GROWTH ELEMENTS 1988-1994 CA
/
10% -
6%-
4% -
2%-
0% - /
Estimated $ Growth
3.6%
1 /
4.3% / /
/
I
9.3%
. . ' ! ' • ' " 'i-\-,r,rr '-'.^
Total Defense Spending
Military Electronics Production
Military Semiconducto Consumption
N) CO O
Q! a a>
CD CD
• so. CO _ S =J 3 O
c-5 o -3 $^ o t > a gB" u8 ^1 i l ^ s. o ^ S J
i" 00 ^ O f i o O CD
-- s
i* 5 ^ ^ o sgo C0T3 ^ O -nS 8 o o t^
o (O ro
SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TH
LSI/VLSI — • SSI/MSI
ASIC's
Memory Intensity
Monolithic ^ ^ Hybrid
Frequencies/clocks T
Pad-hard/rad tolerent
CO O
a a (D
Tl
^ O j r B)
of <• c S CO - CO
M _ a 3 D O
< 5 O "D
$ 9 BJ
5a ^ • ^ i^l 1 0 0 ^
^ 2.
-2 5
00 ^
O f i o o 00 ^ S ffi^a ffi 3
S35 CJT3 ^ O
Tli-.
O 00
> i o ro CO M
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY/AERO SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
Billions of Dollars
$6
$€ CAGR 1898-1994
9.6%
1987 1988 1989 1992 19
Source: Dataque
ro u> o 33 Q! a. (D
^ D TT D)
o l
11 M _ (B 13 3 O <-9 O "D
gg - a 5a g» to o
si ^ 2, fe 3ir 6 0 03 ^ gBo O CB
~~ S s!a ^ a ::io SS9 03-O ^ o -nS i§ o a
o (O ro
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY/AEROS SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) CAGR
*
Total Semiconductor
IC Bipolar Digital
Memory Microcomponent Logic
Standard ASIC
MOS Digital Memory Microcomponent Logic
Standard ASIC
Analog Discrete OptoelectroniG
1988 2806.6
2302.8 680.2 115.8
94.6 469.8 325.7 144.0
1066.6 346.7 266.9 453.0
93.6 359.4 555.9 406.2
97.6
1989 3069.9
2536.9 691.8 112.4 102.2 477.3 321.4 155.9
1244.8 399.1 315.8 529.9 104.4 425.4 600.3 430.0 103.0
1994 4860 .9
4160 .8 822.6
96.6 151.3 574.8 327 .9 246.9
2417 .8 750.6 699.8 967.3 177.8 789.5 920.4 560.8 139.2
8 8 - 9 4 9.6%
10.4% 3.2%
(3.0% 8.1% 3.4% 0.1% 9.4%
14.6% 13.7% 17.4% 13.5% 11.3% 14.0% 8.8% 5.5% 6.1%
Source: Dataques
8 £ a (D
s; o
Si
THE TOP TEN ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MILITARY/AEROS
SEMICONDUCTOR SHIPMENTS (MILLIONS OF DO
PR g " CO o
- l ^1 0 0 ^
^ S. fen S ?
^ ^ 00 =
o gi ~- 55
§!& - $ : i o SS9 cj-a ^ o -nS » 6 '^ 3 "5 o 3 «>. ^ o l>0 (O M
National/Fairchild
1 Texas Instruments j^r
AMD/MMI Harris Semisonductor Motorola
i GE Solid State Philips-Signetics Intel SGS-Thompson Plessey/Ferranti/
Interdesign
1987 250 201 180 152 148 115 83 70 70 58
Source: Dataquest,
i < • ^
M _
^ ^ AGENDA
• Political Environment
Systems Technology and Opportuni
D) 3 3 Q c_ .
- 1 $1 g» CO o
i| 00 =
^ Q
S H
r? • Semiconductor Outlook 00 = O f i . O CO
i" !l rio SS5 w o -^o J l ^ g o-
o ro CO
Procurement Issues
s a a CD
Jo :Kr 03
of < • ^
. « ! w _ B) 3 3 O fT° O "O
• w
9a OJ o
§1
DIMINISHING MANUFACTUR SOURCES (DMS)
SOLUTION
s; CO y
03 ^
ge» O (D ~- S S"! (B a
SS9 CJTD ^ O
7 1 ^
4^ O 3 .u CO •fj o ^3 ro
Last time buys After market production System redesign Emulation Modular-technology transparency Documentation - CAD tool standardiza Vertical integration
t Lifecycle Sourcing Plan
1
CO LU
CO CO
LU
LU CC
O O CC Q.
E CO Staa
O) o ^ B
CL
O) C
• ^ B B
^
(0 Q
> ^
iS • t^Km
m ^ H B
2 "D c5
TD C
OD
0) o c i5 '5
>
D CO
>
CO a 1 1
•o
E Q) OT
to
2 O
• Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
M CO O
a a (D
DATAQUEST CONCLUSIO ^ o X- Ell
-<»8 M Z D) 3 3 O
•^5 o -3 $ R • p
2a g" Co o -i 1 00 ,5 J^ S -N O - I
S J 6o si O p o O 00 •~- S
s!8-^ S
CD
3o ^5 COTD ^ O
o 52 CO
o r\o to
Slower but attractive growth for military and aerospace electronics and semiconductor sales
Standards become more crucial
Strong move toward VLSI
Procurement streamlining is makin good progress
Dataoyest aoMiwanyof ITK Diin& adstiieet Corporation
DataQuest m n a company of U M S The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
LANs
J. Daniel Robertson Vice President, Manufacturing Distributed Systems Division 3COM Corporation
Mr. Robertson is Vice President of manufacturing for 3COM Corporation's Distributed Systems Division. He joined the company as Production Manager and was later named Director of Manufacturing before being appointed to his present position. Previously, Mr. Robertson was employed in Hewlett-Packard's Computer System Division, initially as a Production Engineer and later in management positions in which he led the production, production engineering, and materials groups. Mr. Robertson received a B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from Purdue Oniversity and an M.B.A. degree from the University of Santa Clara.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDDCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAQOEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
• a tfhi<ii;BBl
nn
^w^w^
Seizing Opportunities of Change: ~~| I I Strategic Eiectronic Maricets
for Semiconductors
LANs
J. DANIEL ROBERTSON Vice President, Manufacturing Distributed Systems Division
3COM Corporation
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited.
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Introduction l>0 (O
o CL Q. (D
TJ ^ O ^ ffi. 5S < ^ - a w _ 0> D 3 O <^9 o -o
s ° • M
5^ g»> CO o
1 0 0 ^
-^ 9.
n CO ^ O B O O 03
^ S »!§:
ffi. 3o !S5 CJT3 ^ O -nS go o 00
-;J O l\i (O l>0
LANs - Looking Forward
I>0 CO
o CL Q. CD
T)
^ a ^ 01
^§ < ffi CD - a w _ (B 3 3 O < - ^ O T3
$R - w
5a S" rt o o> o •^^^ 1 0 0 ^
^ Q
sg^
i" 00 =" goo O CD -~ S ffils CD 3 :2!o 555 COT3 ^ O
Agenda
§^!
"5 o 00
• Computing Systems Evolution
• Technology Trends
• LAN Market Growth Projections
• Comments on Win-Win Relationships
• Summary
o l\3 CO rvj
Computer Industry Evolution 8
I
I E QI gt" W o
W ^ 0) <o
I? I?
I C3T3 •— o
s-S So
>l o ro (O
CO kM
JW
"o D c 0> J^ Urn
(0
Computing Millenniums 1955-2015
Distributed Computers
Networked J (Personal) Computers y
FDD Mor Prot Intel
Batch (Mainframe) Computers
• Integrated circuits • Electro-Mechanical
Peripherals
Timeshared (Mini) Computers^
MSI circuits Semiconductor Memory Terminals
LANs Micro MIPS Protocols SW Graphic interface
1955 1970 1985 200
Islands of Automation
Corporate
IBM
SNA
Department inn mil
VAX
Hill IIIII
MInlcomputar
Ethernet
^m I c^" [JpfjiFI
T»rmln»l* or PCs H5 CS/200
Workgroup xzn: 35«rv«r3
& A PC PC o o
Macintosh
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Computer Networking Systems rv> (O
o a a (D
h ^% w _ 0) 3 3 O C - O O "O Jg 9 - ffi
5£ ^^ CO o
i ^ l m ^ -X Q.
S^ ifeO 00 ^ O 00
? —- 5 sig:
8
:2!o !S9
go
53 .t^ S3 o l>0 (O N)
IBM
Enterpri
.Enterprise, Systems
Workgroup Systems
O Macintosh I
TC Pro
g
I is < ^ a <i> - a w _ B> 3 3 O t - 9 o -a igg 2^ $» w8 ^^ 1 0 0 ^ ^ S. ° 5 i 3 J ^ ^ CD ^ goo o ro •~- S 5!a ffi s
SSR U T 3 ^ O
ir^ g o "S o 3 J: ^ O l>0 <£>
ro
Key Technology Trends '
Industry Standards, Open Systems Architectu
\^_\ Transmission Systems
[~N Communication Protocols
[_\ Networking Softwiir0
[ ~ \ Networking Hardware
H \ LAN/WAN Integration
D
K3 (O O
3 ) Q.'
a. CD TJ 0)
?I < • •=
-'"a w l B) 3 :3 o
< - ^
• B)
5a $ » CO o ^^ ^1 00,3 -^ 9.
3 J
00 ^
gco o gj ~~ S
!l SSR COT3 -,^ O
-nS So
Trends in Transmission Systems
Q Thick, Thin Ethernet IZ|/^ Ethernet on Twiste
§
CO ->l o U3 IV)
Q Increased Throughput ( TP = Bandwidth + Processing
Bandwidth improvements
Apple Talk (.23 Mbps) ^ S . / ^ « /> IBM Token Ring (4.0 Mbps) | _ > FDD! (100-0 M Ethernet (10,0 Mbps) ^
Processing Improvements
Standard K
VL?" r > RISC Chip ^ /
s; a
9^
o "
0)
5^ c38
Si -^ S.
3 g
^? 00 ^
§ c° CD
—• S
t^ X i5 r^lo SS§ u-o ^ o
S't So "S o 03
o (O ro
Trends in Networking Software
Q Acceptance of OS/2 and UNIX V as Industry Standard, Open Systems Platforms for Next Generation of Distributed Applications
Cooperative > Distributed
Ql Improved Integrated User Interfaces IBM's Presentation Manager/MS Windows' UNIX Graphics-based Interface/X-Windows Apples' Macintosh Interface
Ql New Generation of Distributed Applications • Microsoft/Ashton-Tate SQL Server • "Groupware"...4-5-6, A-B-C
Today's Application Environrhent 8
I ?S < c: -n.g w _ 0) 3 3 O o O O "D
ss - m ga g" CO o ^ ^ 1 00 =
- ^ Q.
3 J ^ 00 = O p o
o ro ^ S 5*g w :^n sgo C0T3 ^ O -nS. go
o 00
>l o l\3 (O N)
Today's Applications Share Disks and other Perip
File, Print Server
All Computing Occurs in the Network Station
Distributed Application ro to o
Q! Q.
•D ^ O TT g^
D | S (D - a (/> _ 0) 3 3 O c - O O T3 $9 ' K. 5a S" CO o
1 0 0 ^
^ 9.
S J ^ ^ CO ^ gBo O CD -~ S
ffilg
_ S. S3R co-g
o 3
O 3 4^
^ 3 o ro CO lO
Network Station
OS/2 Pipes "Redirectio
Network Server
Trends in Networking Hardware
i &
< • " ^
p ^ 03 _ 0) D 3 O
< - ^ o -o 89 - BJ.
5a OJ o
• ^ 1 1 00 =
-^ 9.
3 J
00 =" OBo O 00 ^ K i!a 5^ :i!o S55
-ni o' D
"S o a>
o (O ro
Q Hardware Optimized for LAN Applications
Past: I I I I I I
Host
Via RS232C/327
"^k^ Terminals
Present: I - • • •! Server
Via LAN
•: Client
Trend: y Host
I I Communication Server ^
• - r — — , j U:—I—1—AJr^ L
D | [D | [D1 ^i^i^s^ [^jSi^SLi
to CO
o a a (D
T3 ^ O ^ S. < • •= a a> - a M _ 03 3 3 O C-5 O T3
$ ? - m 5a g" OJ o
^ ^
Si ooj 5=;!
' — CD
^ ^ 00 ^
goo O CD ~~ S »•§: ffi s : : io 589 C3T5 ^ o
Sli. g o o 00
->I o ro CO N)
Trends in LAN/WAN integration
Q LAN/WAN Integration via Bridges, Routers, Gat • Bridges (LAN-LAN, LAN-WAN-LAN)
• Routers (Protocol Dependent)
• Gateways (Protocol Translation)
Qj Transportation via a Worldwide Digital Infrastru . T1,X.25 [ ~ \ ISDN
I>0 <o o J) a a CD
•o ^ O TT Q)
? ! ^n c o l
is <^5 O TJ $9 - 81
$a s» c»> o
Si ^ Q.
S ? 6 D 00 = geo o gi •^ S
®Ia X ffi -..a :3!o 559 COT3 ^ O
§?° "S o OD
o ro CO N)
Marketing Segments/Competition
Homogeneous
A Systems Companies
IBM DEC
HP Sun
Computers Computer Networking
V ^trogeneoliis
PC LANs
• Novell • Western Digital
3Com GP LAN
• UBI • Excela
intra Networking
Growth in LANs to (O
o 3) a Q. CD •D
ej o ^ 0)
CD <D - a w _ B> 3 3 O
<^9 O "O S9 • w
5a CO o
si 0 0 • <
^ Q.
3 J
^ ^ 00 ^
gB= O DO
— S «!§: 5? ^ _.s :3!o 55R
i § o 52 -c^ ^ o lO CO K3
Worldwide LAN Market CAGR = 35%
Billions (OOO's) 1987 1991
8
6
PCs installed
# connected
% connected
# wkgp servers sold
#NOSsold
27,000
3,000
11%
16
180
50,000
25,000
50%
70
527
.i*i;si^ti^i..j^f^n^
y\
1986 1987
U.S. CAGR s 32% Int'l CAGR = 40%
Source: Dataquest, IDC, Future Computing
1988 1989 1990
U.S.
Market Growth IV) (O
o a a. (D
"D ^ O ? r B)
oE < c: M _ 0> 3 ZI O
<^5 o -o 8 9 • a
5a CO o
1 00,5
- ^ Q.
-2? 6 o 00 -' Ofio o m -^ S s!g ^ ^ _.s r^o 5S9 3 ^
j i -S o o 3 -0. CJ > i o to (O p\i
Worldwide LAN Market 1987 1991 C
Adapters
Stations
Servers
Software
GP LANs
495
45
290
350
1,320
1,425
665 1.
1,535
1,350
3,225
Agenda rv) (O
o d a. (D
TJ
^ O ^r 0) 9I <• c
p | w _ ni zs 3 o <^9 O "O S89 - w 5a g" CO o ^^ 1 CD ,5
- ^ Q.
00 ^
O B o O OJ •~- s
5!t 5? ^ 2. 3o 559 -nS g o "S o OS •Jj o ^3 (D N)
• Computing Systems Evolution
• Technology Trends
• LAN Market Growth Projections
• Comments on Win-Win Relationships
• Summary
DataQuest CocporaUon
aoHraanyof The DonSTBradsticctC
DataQuest ' n n a company of I B M The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation
GRAPHICS
W. Mike Tyler Director Graphics and Imaging Service Dataquest Incorporated
Mr. Tyler is Director of Dataquest's Graphics and Imaging Service. Previously, Mr. Tyler was Director of Marketing at Ramtek Corporation. Prior to that, he was with Computer Sciences Corporation based at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, where he was a Design Engineer. In this position, he was principally involved with the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS) program, later known as Landsat. Mr. Tyler received a B.S. degree in Computer Science from the University of Maryland.
Dataquest Incorporated SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION/DATAOUEST CONFERENCE
September 29, 1988 Santa Clara, California
1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292
|B23Q60ia.lMG 07/11/e8:DEDt
^^WV^
Seizing Opportunities of Change: Strategic Electronic Marlcets for Semiconductors
h GRAPHICS IV. MIKE TYLER
Director Graphics and imaging Service
Dataquest Incorporated
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreel Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|22a8002.IMQ' "6o(\ ^^jTy\ I
1987 REVIEW, FORECAST, TRENDS
Graphics terminals
Graphics workstations
Graphics for personal computers
Graphics for the Mac
Industry trends and issues
Emerging markets
|228eO03.1MG QOIXS/BaTTfL]
GRAPHICS TERMINALS
• 1987 review
• Five-year forecast
• Trends and issues
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
12286004 IMG 00^15^8817711
1987 YEAR IN REVIEW
Graphics Terminals
• Units up: 16.7%
• Revenue down: 12.7%
• ASP off: 25%
Souice: Dataquest
|Bg28e006.IMQ 00/15/88:TYL|
U.S. REVENUE GROWTH OF U.S. COMPANIES
Millions of Dollars
800
600
400 -
200 -
1983 1984 1985 1986 19S7 Source: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|B22ee009.IMG 00i/1S/«e:TYL]
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE UNIT SHIPMENTS OF U.S. COMPANIES
Graphics Terminals
Thousands of Units
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Souice: Daiaquest
12286011 .IMG 0»15Wa?fYr[
GRAPHICS TERMINALS
Trends and Issues
• Moderate user demand
• Low-end market eroded by PCs
• High end eroded by workstations
• PC terminals
• Networked terminals
• X-embedded terminals
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
122eaoi2.iMG oaiMaaTfYLl
GRAPHICS WORKSTATIONS
• 1987 review
• Five-year forecast
• Trends and issues
|22Baoi3.iMG oonMaa:Tvn
1987 YEAR IN REVIEW
Grapliics Workstations
• Units up: 71.2%
• Revenue up: 35.7%
• ASP off: 20.7%
Souice: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company ot The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|B22aaOUIMG 0W15/e9:TyL|
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE UNIT SHIPMENTS OF U.S. COMPANIES
Graphics Workstations
Thousands of Units
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Source: Daiapuest
[BgzeeOlS.IMG 0Q/1S/ag:TYL|
ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE REVENUE OF U.S. COMPANIES
Graphics Worl<stations
Millions of Dollars
8.000 7797
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Source: Daaouest
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|g2aaoi7.iMG oariaaa:TVi.|
GRAPHICS WORKSTATIONS
Trends and Issues
Strong user demand
Adoption of standards
Commodity hardware
Graphics user interface
Expansion at high and low ends
|228eoia.iMG oaiyaaTmn
PERSONAL COMPUTER GRAPHICS
Add-On Boards
• 1987 review
• Five-year forecast
• Trends and issues
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Tfie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
RECAP AND FORECAST Total Low-End Graphics by Type
PC AT Platform
|B22ae019.IMG 0O/15/aa:TYL|
^ ^ Mono ^ ^ EGA EM VGA gfflS? XGA/Future
CGA
1987
Total = 8.0 Million Units Source: Oalaquest
|B22W0ai.lMG OQflS/ae:TYil
^ ^ Mono ^ EGA ESS VGA ^ S XGA/Future
CGA
RECAP AND FORECAST Total Low-End Graphics by Type
PC AT Platform
1988
Total = 8.7 Million Units Total =« 8.0 Million Units
Souice: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Thie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Teiex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|Ba2a80gi.iMG a)/is/aa:Tyn
^ ^ Mono ^ ^ EGA EM VGA
XGA/Future CGA
RECAP AND FORECAST Total Low-End Graphics by Type
PC AT Platform
1988
Total = 8.7 Million Units
1989
Total = 8.0 Million Units
Total = 9.1 Million Units
Source: Dataquest
|a22aeoa3.iMG oo/i&raa?rYLl
TOTAL HIGH-END SUBSYSTEMS MARKET FORECAST
PC and PS/2
Thousands of Units
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2,9?0
_ . 392
mmaam WBM \ i 777
1 TTin •
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Soutce: Dataquest
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Thie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Dnve, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|22BeOg4IMG 0aiae8:WLl
PERSONAL COMPUTER GRAPHICS
Trends and Issues
• Move to high resolution
• More than 50% color
• Embedded power-up graphics
• Almost 100% penetration
• Emergence of EISA BUS
|22Baoe5-tMG oafiyaaTrYT)
Mac Graphics
• 1987 review
• Five-year forecast
• Trends and issues
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|B22e60g6.IMG 0Wt5/aa:TYL|
OPEN-MAC, LOW-RESOLUTION SUBSYSTEMS MARKET FORECAST
Thousands of Units
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Source: Dataquest
lB22a60g?.1MG 0Q/1S/aa:TYLl
HIGH-RESOLUTION MAC SUBSYSTEMS MARKET
M Radius ^ E-Machines M Supermac S Sigma Designs 00 Megagraphics • Others
1987 Total = 22.000 Units Souice: Dataquest
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Proliibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
[JSaaaSaajM^" bb/i5/B8:TYL |
OPEN-MAC, HIGH-RESOLUTION SUBSYSTEMS MARKET FORECAST
Thousands of Units
1,250
1.000
750
500
250
0
^ H Color
21 26
1988
94 94
1989
570
257 ^ ^ ^ ' ^^HHfrTTmTT? H H B S " ; I::; :
^^•ililliii
KB||36Q
illilliill
1990 1991
MAC GRAPHICS
1.110
B|
^11^505
"• 1992 Sourcei Daiaquesi
I22BM29IMG (XVISeaiTYL)
Trends and Issues
• Large monitors
• 24-bit
• Higher resolution
• Color
• Evolution of Quickdraw
• Apple products in 1988
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|228a030.IMG OQfiaaa:TVL|
TRENDS IN GRAPHICS AND IMAGING
Price
249.6
208
166.4
124.8
83.2
41.6
• The cost of memory
• The declining dollar
• Offshore opportunities
• Emerging markets
ESTIMATED DRAM ASPs ($ per Mb)
F^
^
'••.„ ' %
h \r s -•i
256Kb
'"""iiiiiHin,
! • * • P^^M f"""""""f,r
"""iniiiiMii,
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Source: Dalaqucst
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|2aB8ooa.iMG osyiyseiTrTI
THE DECLINING DOLLAR FORECAST
v/$
260-
240-
220-
200-
180
160-
140-
120-
100
• V ^
X Deutsche Mark
S
1984 1985
^ X — I 1 1 1 —
1986 1987 1988 1989
DM/$
•3.25
-3.05
-2.85
2.65
[-2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
-1.65
i r 1.45
1.25
1990
Souioe: The WEBV Group
STATUS OF THE INDUSTRY
|2aBaio3.iMQ «yiyae:TVLl
United States Europe
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|aa2WCW.IMQ CI(W15ffla:TYLl
REVENUE OF U.S. COMPANIES
Change = (12.7%)
Millions of Dollars
800
1986 1987 United States
Change = 28.8%
Millions of Dollars
400
300
200
100
^ ^ ^ ^ m ffltitittiimHttffl ^ffliimitminnH
IH IIH 1986 1987
Europe Source: Dataquest
122aeflQ5.iMa otyiMeaTrYTl
EMERGING MARKETS
Graphics and Imaging
Document storage and retrieval
Scientific visualization
Photorealism
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
2aBao36•llM G o»i»aa:ryL]
EMERGING MARKETS
Document Storage and Retrieval
• Growth similar to DTP
• PC-based
• Interoperability
• Scalability
laaaaoaT.iMG oariyeeiTVLi
EMERGING MARKETS
Scientific Visualization
• High-end, complex systems
• Workstations, subsystems
• Lack of software
• Customization
1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
|Z26a038.IMG OQf 1 S/BStrYL [
EMERGING MARKETS
Photorealism
Broadcast animation
CAD, styling
Package, textile design
Simulation, training
|22aeo«O.IMG 0 a i 5 m a : T Y L |
SUMMARY
• PCs and workstations
• Commodity hardware
• Software differentiation
• Interoperability
• Graphics user interfaces
© 1988 Dataquest Incorporated September 29 — Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Dnve, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
%
DataQuest acomp^iyof The Dtm& Bradstre^ Corporabon
top related