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Global and Local Peaks in Oil and Gas Production
James S Jackson
Department of Geology
Portland State University
Portland, Oregon
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Source: Simmons EIA
1980
2005
ANS
Brent
WTI
Arab Heavy
Arab Light
Orinoco
Athabascan
50403020100
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
Bitumin Heavy Super LightIntermediate Light
Oil Gravity versus Sulfur Content
4.0
4.5
Conventional Oil
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Source: API Valero
HeavyFuelOil
Distillate
Gasoline
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M King Hubbert (1969)
US Oil Consumption
World Oil Consumption
Source: US Ener Resources 1972 US GPO
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Lower 48 production as of 2001
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World Production as of 2001
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Hypothetical HubbertCurveof Global Oil Consumption
1900 2000 2100
40
30
20
10
0
Produced Oil
Proven Reserves
Undiscovered
Oil
Annual Consumption
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Original ReservesRemaining Reserves
Proven Reserves
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Proven Reserves
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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
10
0
20
30
40
50
60
Oil Discoveries 1930 to 2010
Undiscovered Oil
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Source: USGS
Undiscovered Oil
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
3,595 B Bbl
3,003 B Bbl
2,248 B Bbl
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 21250
30
60
90
EIA World Conventional Oil Production Scenarios
Decline Resource/Production = 10
Annual Consumption
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1900 2000 2100
40
30
20
10
0
40 yrs
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Global Peak Oil Forecasts
Multidisciplinary task
Precise forecast problematic
Peak oil likely within 0 to 40 years
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All geology is localKevin Burke
Oil is our patrimonyBolivian geologist 1990
Some post-peak oil producing countries:
United States United Kingdom
Indonesia Egypt
Argentina France Iran Russia
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Mexico
Produces 3.4 MMBOPD
Exports to US 1.6 MMBOPD
Pemex contributes 40% of state revenues
Cantarell contributes 57% of Pemex oilCantarell contributes 24% of state revenues
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Source: Pemex
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Pemex
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Will the Mexican governmentsustain Pemexs capital program?
When will Pemexs oil production decline?
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Indonesia
Produces 1 MMBPD crude oil
Imports 0.250 MMBPD fuel
OPEC member since 1962
Source IEA, Finanznachrichten
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Source: EIA
1.0
1.5
0.5
0
1992 1996 2000 20041994 1998 2002 2006E
Consumption
Production
Indonesian Oil Production and Consumption
0Wholesale Kerosene Price
2000
1000
1500
500
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Can Indonesia attract exploration andproduction capital to stem decliningproduction?
Can Indonesia bring its fuel market in
line with global prices?
Will Indonesia compete with the US in
the Pacific market?
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Western Europe Gas Production Peak
1948 Gas imports to Poland from Russia
1965 LNG imports to France and UK
1969 Gas imports to Austria from Russia
1974 Gas imports to Germany-Italy from Russia
1978 LNG imports from Algeria
1983 Transmed pipeline Algeria to Italy
1996 Gaz Maghgreb pipeline Algeria to Spain
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: UK DTI
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Dutch GasProduction
20041994198419741964
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Gronigen Field
Other Fields
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htt ://euro a.eu.int/comm/ener / as/worksho 2002/doc/external commission/10. df
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Will Europe successfully diversify
its gas supply?
Will Europe compete with the US in
the Atlantic LNG market?
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Implications for US Energy Policy
Conserve limited resources
Support research for alternative energy
sources
Recognize sovereignty of HC resources
Support global conservation and research
Do no harm to the markets
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Acknowledgments:
ARCO: Denny Tower, Bob Olson, Tom Arthur,John Grace, Chris Moore, Paul LaPointe
PSU: Ansel Johnson, Mike CummingsWAF Oregon: Michael Carnahan
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Thank You
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