lecture 3: megatrends part i - physical. solar irradiance measured by satellites since 1970s and...
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Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
Solar irradiance
Measured by satellites since 1970s and proxy measurements
The sun has a well-known eleven-year irradiance (Wm-2) cycle that produces a ~008 variation in output
Studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes For example a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850
httpclimatejplnasagovcauses
As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull
Solar irradiance
Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases
Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)
Milankovitch cycles
Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate
The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Solar irradiance
Measured by satellites since 1970s and proxy measurements
The sun has a well-known eleven-year irradiance (Wm-2) cycle that produces a ~008 variation in output
Studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes For example a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850
httpclimatejplnasagovcauses
As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull
Solar irradiance
Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases
Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)
Milankovitch cycles
Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate
The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull
Solar irradiance
Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases
Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)
Milankovitch cycles
Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate
The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Solar irradiance
Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases
Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)
Milankovitch cycles
Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate
The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Milankovitch cycles
Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate
The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Thermohaline (THC)
Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current
sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer
Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current
The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)
bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean
bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate
bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions
bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
THC vs MOC
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean
bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes
bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe
bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability
in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia
bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low
bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track
bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland
bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index
phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low
bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway
bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions
bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases
bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude
bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean
bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions
bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
+ _
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years
During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cold Phase
Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean
Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt
bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack
bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America
bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Warm Phase PDO and ENSO
Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
ENSO
bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)
bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea
bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
ENSO
bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia
bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
El Nino or La Nina
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
El Nino or La Nina
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
For referenceDecember 2009
Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Past (222010)
bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean
bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific
bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Latest weekly SST departures are
Nintildeo 4 13ordmC
Nintildeo 34 12ordmC
Nintildeo 3 07ordmC
Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific
Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced
The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of
the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two
locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean
ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Temperature and SOI
T
SOI
httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml
Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
HurricanesHurricanes
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
HurricanesHurricanes
Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Volcanoes
Icelands Eyjafjallajokull
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Volcanoes
bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km
bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols
bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
Reading Assignment
bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO
- Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
- Slide 2
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- Slide 5
- Slide 6
- Slide 7
- Slide 8
- Slide 9
- Thermohaline (THC)
- Slide 11
- Slide 12
- Slide 13
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
- NAO Positive Mode
- NAO Negative Mode
- Slide 18
- Slide 19
- Slide 20
- Arctic Oscillation (AO)
- Slide 22
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Slide 25
- Slide 26
- ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
- ENSO
- Slide 29
- Slide 30
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- Slide 33
- Slide 34
- Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
- Slide 36
- SST SOI
- Slide 38
- Temperature and SOI
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
- Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
- Slide 42
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Slide 45
- Slide 46
- Volcanoes
- Krakatoa
- Mount Tambora
- Reading Assignment
-
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