lecture 4 teaching futures, systems and strategic thinking 2016

Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking

Technologies Education

6:00

Systems Thinking

Computational Thinking

Design Thinking

Futures Thinking

Strategic Thinking Solutions Thinking .

Futures Thinking

2:30

• conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.

• develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures.

• understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.

• conscientise responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.

Why study the future

Fashion

Environmental Scans

Trend Analysis

Cyclical Pattern Analysis

Visioning

Scenarios

Backcasting

www.nmc.orgHorizon Reports

1:00

Technological Evolution

Tool AgeMachine Age

Automation Age

Technological EvolutionNeolithic Revolution

Stone, Bronze, Iron Ages Ancient Greek, Roman, Chinese technology

Medieval technology Renaissance technology

Industrial Revolution Atomic Age Space Age

Digital Revolution Information Age

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

Arthur C Clarke

Linear model of innovation

InventionInnovation

Diffusion

It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity

Albert Einstein

Once a new technology rolls over you, if you’re not part of the steamroller, you’re part of the road

Stewart Brand

0:30

We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology and yet have cleverly arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. That’s a clear prescription for disaster

Carl Sagan

Systems Thinking

Systems Thinking makes it possible to analyse and understand complex phenomena

Systems Thinking

Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger

numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied

Systems Thinking

Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions

Barry Richmond

Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information than is available through sensory experience alone.  It’s built on past experiences and knowledge.

The image of the world around us, which we carry in our head, is just a model. Nobody in his head imagines all the world… they have only selected concepts, and relationships between them, and uses those to represent the real system

Jay Forrester

The problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them

Albert Einstein

We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental models. Systems modelling allows us to move from “what” to “what if” and make our thinking visible

The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows, and loops

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful

George Box

A supermarket can be seen as any of the following kinds of systems, depending on the perspective:

a "profit making system" … from the perspective of management and owners

a "distribution system“… from the perspective of the suppliers

an "employment system“… from the perspective of employees

a "materials supply system“… from the perspective of customers

an "entertainment system“… from the perspective of loiterers

a "social system" …from the perspective of local residents

a "dating system" …from the perspective of single customers

Students need learn to identify the properties of the various subsystems they explore, for example of a bicycle,

and examine how they relate to the whole. Children tend to think of the properties of a system as

belonging to individual parts of it rather than as arising from the interaction of the parts. A system property that

arises from interaction of parts is therefore a difficult idea.

Students should already know that if something consists of many parts, the parts usually influence one another.

Also they should be aware that something may not work as well (or at all) if a part of it is missing, broken, worn out,

mismatched, or misconnected.

1:00

Students can learn about the choices and constraints that

go into the design of a bicycle system. Depending

on whether the bicycle is intended for racing,

mountain roads, or touring, influences its design and

such choices as the type of tires, frame and materials,

and drives and gears.

In addition, accommodating one constraint can often lead to conflict with others. For example, the lightest material may not be the strongest, or the most efficient shape may

not be the safest or the most aesthetically pleasing. Therefore, every design problem lends itself to many

alternative solutions, depending on what values people place on the various constraints.

Subsystems could include:

The Wheel Drivers & Gears

Frames & Materials Brakes & Steering

Aerodynamics Power System

1:00

Speed Safety Comfort Durability Endurance

The Wheels

Drivers and Gears

Frames and Materials

Brakes and Steering

Aerodynamics

Power System

Parts Function Inputs Outputs Boundaries

The Wheels

Drivers and Gears

Frames and Materials

Brakes and Steering

Aerodynamics

Power System

Wheel & Axle (subsystem) The wheel & axle

transfer energy from rubber band to the surface

to move the car.

Rubber band (energy) Elastic potential energy will be transferred to the wheel

and axle subsystem

Energy Conservation Most of the energy results in

motion.Some energy is transformed into heat through

friction with the surface

Boundaries: The Surface The Person

My hand (input) A person provides the

energy that is stored in the stretched rubber band.

Motion (output) The car moves as a

result of the energy that is put into the system.

A Physical System Energy Transfer

(Big Idea context)

A Rubber Band Car System

Part

Function of the part

Part

Function of the part

Part

Function of the part

Predict: What if a part is missing?

Function of the whole system

Other systems with a part like this

Name all the parts

Parts & Wholes Function of the Part

Predict

F-2

Whole System

What form of energy makes this system work?

Subsystem

Function

Subsystem

Function

Predict the effect of a broken subsystem (part)

Inputs

Changes in input

Outputs

What the whole system can do

Subsystems Inputs & Outputs

Functions & Predictions

3-4

Whole System

Describe how the output will change if we change the input

Subsystem

Subsystem

Energy Output

Receiving System

Matter Input

Predict Changes

Matter Output

Receiving System

Energy Input

Inputs & Outputs Boundaries & Flow

Open & Closed Systems

5-6

Whole System

Give an example of how a change in a subsystem influences the entire system Is this system closed or open? Explain.

Boundaries of the system

Whole System

Subsystems

Negative Feedback?

Inflow compared to outflow

Feedback from output

Positive Feedback?

Interaction with another system

Is the system in equilibrium or is it

changing?

Positive Feedback Negative Feedback

Equilibrium

7-8

How are models of this system used to make predictions? What are the limitations of the model in accurately making predictions?

Behaviour (changes) over time

Weather

Weather

Attendance

Tying Shoes

Experiments

Literature

Literature

Tortoise vs the Hare

As you are reading, look for key words such as: change transform revolution becoming more rose went up increased got higher grew/growth gained less fell went down decreased went

lower declined lost

Write down one or more quotes in each box. Circle key words of change and underline what you think is changing. Draw a line graph of how the

quote shows change over time. Explain why the change occurs.

Identifying Change Over Time in Text

Quotes from book Change over time Why this might be occurring

Identifying Change Over Time in Text

Behaviour over time

Behaviour over time

Behaviour over time

What important elements have changed over time? How has __________ changed over time? During what period of time have the changes occurred? Where on the y-axis should the graph start and why? How would you label the bottom/middle/top of the y-axis? What evidence supports the graph being created?

Questions to ask when analysing a system that changes over time:

What caused any changes in direction or slope? How are interpretations of a graphed element the same or different? What changes may happen in the future based on what has been happening? Do you see any connections (interdependencies or causal relationships) between/among graphs?

Questions to consider once BOTGs have been created:

Stocks and Flows

Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements that you can see, feel, count, or measure Stocks do not have to be physical

Stocks

Reservoirs

Reservoirs

Reservoirs

Money

Air Quality

Air Quality

Air Quality

Animal Populations

Animal Populations

Human Populations

Stock changes over time

IncreasingDecreasingOscillating

Stable

Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within a system

Flow

Stone Soup

The Waterhole

The Waterhole

The Waterhole

1:20

A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the flows into or out of that same stock Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep a stock at a certain level or within a certain range Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself

Loops

Population Change

Endangered Animals

Marker Pen Scarcity

Professional Development

What is a stock related to the horse in a horse race?

What is a flow related to the horse in a horse race?

What is the relationships between the two?

Stock represents an amount, e.g. distance travelled

Flow represents a rate, e.g. distance/second

They are related because they both relate to distance

What is a stock related to a freeway?

What is a flow related to freeway?

Stocks generally are described by nouns

Flow generally is described by verbs

Number of cars (noun); Entering/leaving freeway (verbs)

Stock FlowHow are they alike?

How are they different?

Piggy Bank

Piggy BankGame 1 Rule: Put 2 “coins” in, take 1 “coin” out

Directions: 1. Write the rule at the top of the graph for Game 1. 2. Graph the number of “coins” in the piggy before you begin. 3. Write your prediction. 4. Round 1: Using the piggy handout, put 2 “coins” in, and then take 1 out. 5. Graph the number of “coins” left in the piggy on the line for round 1. 6. Round 2: Add two more “coins”, then take 1 away, graph... continue doing so for 3

more rounds; record the number of “coins” left at the end. 7. Was your prediction correct? Why or why not?

Piggy BankGame 2 Make a new rule to save more money than in the first game but that can still be seen on the graph.

Game 3 Make a new rule with money going in and out that shows how money can decrease (go down) over time.

Piggy Bank

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Symbols

A converter holds information or

relationships that affect the rate of the flows, or that

affect the content of another converter

A connector indicates that

changes in one element cause

changes in another element; only

changes a stock by going through an

accompanying flow

A flow represents actions or processes; transports “stuff”,

concrete or abstract, that directly adds to or takes away from accumulation in a stock;

the verbs in the system

A stock represents an accumulation,

concrete or abstract, that increases or

decreases over time; the nouns in

the system

Feedback Loops

World Population

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Avalanche

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Epidemics

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Rumours

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Fads

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Interest Rates

Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Confidence

Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback

Soil Fertility

Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback

Predator / Prey

Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Exercise

Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Supply and Demand

Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Fire Management

Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Cruise Control

Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Growing Plants

Causal Loops

Immunisation

Causal Loops

Connecting Loops

Central B indicates a Balancing loop, R a Reinforcing loop Central + or - indicates positive (growth or decline) or negative (oscillating or seeking) loops Arrowed signs indicate the direction of causality + (adds to or changes it in same direction or - (takes from or change direction) o reverses direction or subtracts, s same direction or adds to it

Friendships

Reinforcing Causal Loops

Literature

Balancing Causal Loops

Connecting Loops

0:22

Food and Fibre Production

Both Types of Causal Loops

Slavery

Reinforcing Causal Loops 0:34

Types of loops

Lilly Pads

Types of loops

Reinforcing Feedback

Types of loops

Body Temperature

Types of loops

Balancing Feedback

Types of loops

Rebellions

Types of loops

Balancing Feedback

Types of loops

Savings

Types of loops

Reinforcing Feedback

Types of loops

Cruise Control

Types of loops

Balancing Feedback

Types of loops

An odd number of negative (-) connections indicates a

balancing loop.

An even number of negative (-) connections indicates a

reinforcing loop.

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Rats of Nimh

Air Pollutionrespiratory disease air pollution (CO2)

coal burned economic development

factories cancer

death rate coal production

coal dust power stations

environmental regulation pollution outsourcing to China

standard of living cars

natural resources

Audio article and transcript

Air PollutionStock/Flow Map

Connection Circle

finding feedback loops

Stock/Flow Map

Stock/Flow Map

Identifying Loops

Causal Loop

Stock/Flow Map

Identifying Loops

Causal Loop

Connection Circle

Connection Circle

Connection Circle

Causal Loop

Connection Circle

Causal Loop

Connection Circle

Causal Loop

Systems Thinking Stocks Flows

Causal Loops Flow Maps

Connection Circles Simulations

Strategic Thinking

Thinking as a leader, manager and entrepreneur

Entrepreneurial Thinking

Pitching business plans

Applying for business loans and managing

project budgets

Planning and running events

Marketing their solutions

Determine if their solutions are profitable and

sustainable

Enthusing their teams

Managing differences and conflicts

Understanding the benefits of diverse viewpoints

Opportunities to bring in outside help and outsource

Creativity

Project Planning

Teamwork

Budgeting

Griffith University

Dr Jason Zagami

www.zagami.info