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Long Island Solar RoadmapConsortium Meeting 4.5January 21, 2020 Zoom: https://tnc.zoom.us/j/156364594

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• Name• Affiliation

Introductions

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Agenda10:00 Welcome & Introductions

10:15 Agenda & Today’s Purpose

10:25 Overview of Spatial Analysis Approach

10:40 Spatial Analysis Results

11:10 Discussion

11:40 Next Steps and Project Timeline

12:00 Adjourn

Purpose• Sharing the results of the spatial analysis:

• Preview of spatial analysis fact sheets

• Web tool still in development

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• Long Island• County• Town

• Highlights

Discussion Questions

1) What is surprising?

2) Are there other ways we need to caveat or clarify these results?

3) What is a conclusion you draw from these results?

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Spatial Analysis Methodology Refresher

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1. Identified parcels for Nassau and Suffolk Counties that meet our suitability criteria for low-impact solar siting

2. Summarized available installation areas for solar on rooftops, parking lots, and ground

3. Calculated potential generation capacity by parcel

4. Identify parcels supporting mid- to large-scale solar generation (≥ 250 kW)

Suitability Analysis Inputs

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Island-wide dataNY Natural Heritage Program Communities and Species

DEC freshwater and coastal wetlands, NHD hydrology

FEMA flood zones

EPA Brownfields and Superfund Sites

NY OPRHP, NYSHPO Cultural and historic areas

Microsoft National Dataset Building Footprints

Nassau County Suffolk County

Parcels 2018 Parcel Boundaries 2018 Parcel Boundaries

Land use 2018 Parcel Land Use 2016 Parcel Land use

Protected open spaceNassau County Public Open Spaces

Suffolk County Open Space Priorities Master List, Protected Farmlands, Pine Barrens Cores

Parking lots 1993 Nassau County Basemap Heads-up digitization

Capacity Calculations

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Estimates of energy output (DC) per square foot for each type of installation.

Energy Produced (DC) High density (W/ft2) Medium density

(W/ft2) Low density (W/ft2)

Ground-Mount 8

Carport 7

Rooftop 8 7 6

Capacity Calculations

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Area needed for each installation type

250 kW 500 kW 1 MWGround-mount and rooftop (high density)

31,250 ft2 0.7 ac 62,500 ft2 1.4 ac 125,000 ft2 2.9 ac

Carport (medium density) 35,714 ft2 0.8 ac 71,429 ft2 1.6 ac 142,857 ft2 3.3 ac

Rooftop (low density) 41,667 ft2 0.9 ac 83,334 ft2 1.9 ac 166,667 ft2 3.8 ac

1 acre (ac)

Ground-mount analysis

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• We used supervised classification to identify suitable sites

• Targeting: vacant, undeveloped lots, unforested areas, reclaimed landfills, unused lawns, ag lands*

• May pick up: golf courses, ballfields, courtyards, transitional sites, active farmland

• **We are continuing to refine ground-mount results

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Ground-mount analysis

Golf courses in Nassau County

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Unused industrial park lawns

Mines and landfills

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Caveats & Things to Keep in Mind• Spatial data = snapshot in time

• Numbers are ballpark estimates -- Results of this analysis are not a substitute for site level surveys

• Map indicates low-impact sites based on technical, landscape-scale data – does not represent where we think solar should go

Energy Mandates & Goals

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Source & Year Goals Target date

CLCPA 2019 70% of electricity from renewable sources

2030

CLCPA 2019 100% of electricity from carbon-free sources

2040

CLCPA 2019 6,000 MW of utility-scale solar 2025

NYPSC 2018 3,000 MW of energy storage 2030

LIPA 2017 800 MW of renewable energy 2030

Energy and Solar on Long Island

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1. 2016 capacity from LIPA 2017 Integrated Resources Plan2. PSEG LI Utility 2.0 Long Range Plan 2019 Update 3. Reflects impacts of energy saving programs and behind-the-meter generation

Generation 2018 NYISO DataLIPA’s Current Generation Capacity 5,204 MW1

Installed Front-of-the-Meter Solar 101 MW DC2

Installed Behind-the-Meter Solar 456 MW DC

Consumption 2018 NYISO DataLong Island Annual Consumption 21,326 GWh3

Long Island Peak Summer Demand 5,394 MW

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• Electricity produced by 1 MW of solar = 1,226.4 MWh per year • Avg NY household electricity use = 7.2 MWh per year• 1 MW solar produces enough electricity to meet the annual

electricity use of ~ 170 homes.

Energy and Solar in New York

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Spatial Analysis Results

• Long Island: 21,863 MW potential capacity• 14,830 MW ground-mount • 3,791 MW carport• 3,241 MW rooftop

• That’s more than 3x the NYS 6,000 MW solar goal

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Nassau County

Total capacity:6,913.8 MW

3968.8 MW Ground1687.1 MW Carport1257.9 MW Rooftop

Potential installation area:20,618.6 ac

11,438.1 ac Ground5530.0 ac Parking lots

3627.4 ac Rooftops

58%24%

18%

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Nassau CountyInstallation Size Distribution per Parcel

46%

29%

21%

2% 2% <1%0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

250-500kW

500 kW - 1MW

1-5 MW 5-10 MW 10-100MW

>100 MW

Num

ber o

f Ins

talla

tions

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Nassau CountySize Distribution of Arrays

Carport61%

16%11%

8%1% 2% 0%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

48%

29%

15%8%

<1%<1% 0%

60%

25%

10%5%

<1% 0% 0%

Ground-mount Rooftop

Land Use Characteristics• Densely developed• Less available space for ground-mount

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Nassau County

0%

32%

14%

25%

6%

48%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Residential

Recreation & Public Lands

Other

Community/Public Services

Commercial/Industrial

Agricultural

Total County Acreage by Land Use

% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels

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Suffolk County

Total capacity:14,949.8 MW

10,861.8 MW Ground2104.1 MW Carport1983.9 MW Rooftop

Potential installation area:40,942.7 ac

29,160.7 ac Ground6455.8 ac Parking lots

5326.2 ac Rooftops

73%14%

13%

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Suffolk CountyInstallation Size Distribution per Parcel

45%

27%23%

3% 2% <1%0

500100015002000250030003500400045005000

250-500kW

500 kW - 1MW

1-5 MW 5-10 MW 10-100MW

>100 MW

Num

ber o

f Ins

talla

tions

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Suffolk CountySize Distribution of Arrays

CarportGround-mount Rooftop68%

17%

9%6%

<1% <1% 0%

56%

25%

12%7%

<1%<1% 0%

39%

27%

16%14%

3% 2% <1%0

500100015002000250030003500400045005000

Suffolk County

• Agricultural land presents unique opportunities

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4%

0%

5%

11%

18%

35%

29%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Transportation

Residential

Rec and OS

Other*

Institutional

Commercial/Industrial

Agricultural

Total County Acreage by Land Use

% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels

Ground-mount (MW) Carport (MW) Rooftop (MW) Total (MW)

Non-protected Farmlands 3,977.7 4.8 39.1 4,021.6

Protected Farmlands 0 0.2 2.9 3.1

Total 3,977.7 5.0 42.0 4,024.7

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4%

0%

5%

11%

18%

35%

29%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Transportation

Residential

Rec and OS

Other*

Institutional

Commercial/Industrial

Agricultural

Total County Acreage by Land Use

Where will large-scale solar go?

0%

32%

14%

25%

6%

48%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Residential

Recreation & Public Lands

Other

Community/Public Services

Commercial/Industrial

Agricultural

Total County Acreage by Land Use

Nassau County

Suffolk County

% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Groundmount Parking Lot Rooftop (High Estimate)

Capa

city

(MW

)

Agricultural Recreation and Open Space

Commercial/Industrial Institutional

Transportation Other

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Groundmount Parking Lot Rooftop (High Estimate)

Capa

city

(MW

)

Community services Recreation and entertainment

Commercial/Industrial Other

Nassau County Suffolk County

Where can solar be sited?

Breakdown by Settings

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Ground MW Carport MW Rooftop MW Total MW

Schools 120.8 (0.8%) 230.4 (1.5%) 309.3 (2.1%) 660.5

Public 1,034.7 (6.9%) 214.4 (1.4%) 108.5 (0.7%) 1,357.6

Private/Other 9,706.3 (64.9%) 1,659.3 (11.1%) 1,566.1 (10.5%) 12,931.7

Suffolk County:

Ground MW Carport MW Rooftop MW Total MW

Schools 181.4 (2.6%) 219.5 (3.2%) 246.3 (3.6%) 647.3

Public 916.2 (13.3%) 338.1 (4.9%) 99.9 (1.4%) 1,354.1

Private/Other 2,871.2 (41.5%) 1,129.6 (16.3%) 911.7 (13.2%) 4,912.4

Nassau County:

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% Share of Total GenerationGround-mount

Carport

Rooftop

Town Results for Nassau County

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Glen Cove Hempstead Long Beach NorthHempstead

Oyster Bay

Pote

ntia

l Sol

ar C

apac

ity (M

W)

45.3

Town Results for Suffolk Co

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0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

Pote

ntia

l Sol

ar C

apac

ity (M

W)

Sample Town Factsheet

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Sample Town Factsheet

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Summary

Total Opportunity on Long Island• 21,863 MW Installed -> 3x NYS solar goal

If we only developed 25%• 5,466 MW Installed

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Summary

Greatest Opportunities • County – Suffolk• Towns – Hempstead and Brookhaven• Installation Type – Ground-mounted (73% of total)• Settings – Recreational and entertainment (Nassau) and

Agricultural settings (Suffolk), dominated by ground-mounted

• Sizes – Majority of installations are 250-500 kW

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Spatial Analysis Next Steps

• Clean-up of ground-mount data

• Add Overlays – zoning, Brownfields data

• Solar radiation analysis

• Request feedback on town fact sheets

• Web map deployment

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Discussion Questions

1) What is surprising?

2) Are there other ways we need to caveat or clarify these results?

3) What is a conclusion you draw from these results?

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Project Schedule

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FEB 26 CONSORTIUM MEETING 5 – In PersonReview synthesis report & begin to develop strategies

FEB – MAY DRAFT FINAL REPORT & MAPS

JUNE RESULTS LAUNCHFinal meeting to rollout results to broad audience

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Project ScheduleOctober – January Welcome

January Changes in Project Schedule

10:10 Vision, Goal, & Strategies

10:20 Map Tutorial

11:00 Solar and Agriculture in Economics Research Report

11:20 Timeline & Process for Drafting Synthesis Report

11:30 Adjourn

THANK YOU!

Mattias TongAugust SchultzMichael Evans