major economic and workforce trends for the coming decade -

1

-Major Economic and Workforce Trends for the Coming Decade-

Bob UhlenkottWorkforce Development Council Meeting - March 24, 2011

The “REAL” or “TRUE” Rate of Unemployment!

Alternative Measures for Labor Underutilization

• U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);

• U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;

• U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and

• U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Unemployment Rates - 2010 Annual Averages

Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6

United States 5.7 6 9.6 10.3 11.1 16.7California 7.6 7.9 12.2 13 14 22.1Idaho 4.1 5.4 9 9.3 9.9 16.3Montana 3.4 5 7.7 8 8.6 14.9Nevada 9.2 10.1 14.4 15.2 16 23.6Oregon 6.7 7.8 11 11.6 12.5 20Utah 4.2 4.8 8.2 8.8 9.5 15.1Washington 5.4 5.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 18.4Wyoming 3 3.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 11.5

StateAlternative Measures of Labor Underutilization

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun JulAug

Sep OctNov

Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09)Duration

Year

-to-

Year

% C

hang

e

Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun JulAug

Sep OctNov

Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09)Duration

Year

-to-

Year

% C

hang

e

Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with an Advanced Degree (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with an Advanced Degree (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

Poly. (Idaho)

Poly. (WA)

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

It is estimated that 3.7% of the jobs in Idaho require an advanced degree or more. Direct gap comparisons require a perfect one-to-one match.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

Poly. (Idaho)

Poly. (CA)

Poly. (NV)

Poly. (UT)

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

It is estimated that 20.3% of the jobs in Idaho require a bachelor's degree or more. Direct ga p compa risons require a perfect one-to-one match.

20.8%

24.8%24.6%

13.1%

18.1%19.6%20.1%

12.5%

8.4%

15.2%15.8%

Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-2018

20.8%

24.8%24.6%

13.1%

18.1%19.6%20.1%

12.5%

8.4%

15.2%15.8%

Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-201830%

33%

37%

Frequency of the Jobs

UnskilledSkilledProfessional

$18

$10$9 $10

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training

Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

First professional degree or Doctoral degree

Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar InvestedIdaho Department of Labor – March 2011

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008 Nat LQ % ChangeUnder 5 years 123,751 133,732 9,981 8% 1.17 (1%)5 to 9 years 114,519 132,456 17,937 16% 1.12 4%10 to 14 years 109,467 128,495 19,028 17% 1.09 6%15 to 19 years 115,347 117,646 2,299 2% 1.06 3%20 to 24 years 113,813 109,317 (4,496) (4%) 1.06 (5%)25 to 29 years 110,906 106,985 (3,921) (4%) 1.03 (10%)30 to 34 years 95,328 113,207 17,879 19% 0.97 (2%)35 to 39 years 97,020 112,397 15,377 16% 0.93 9%40 to 44 years 94,390 102,494 8,104 9% 0.88 11%45 to 49 years 103,974 92,026 (11,948) (11%) 0.91 0%50 to 54 years 101,539 91,751 (9,788) (10%) 0.94 (7%)55 to 59 years 91,158 96,834 5,676 6% 0.98 (11%)60 to 64 years 74,521 96,017 21,496 29% 0.98 (5%)65 to 69 years 55,785 86,890 31,105 56% 0.98 3%70 to 74 years 41,763 68,923 27,160 65% 0.94 5%75 to 79 years 33,593 47,096 13,503 40% 0.91 9%80 to 84 years 26,100 29,954 3,854 15% 0.89 9%85 years and over 24,531 27,913 3,382 14% 0.90 (2%)

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

State of Idaho

Aging Work Force

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008Nat LQ % ChangeUnder 5 years 5,852 6,023 171 3% 0.81 1%5 to 9 years 5,433 6,014 581 11% 0.78 6%10 to 14 years 5,664 6,084 420 7% 0.83 4%15 to 19 years 8,616 7,773 (843) (10%) 1.17 (3%)20 to 24 years 11,949 10,777 (1,172) (10%) 1.64 (4%)25 to 29 years 6,609 6,357 (252) (4%) 0.90 (4%)30 to 34 years 4,712 6,158 1,446 31% 0.71 14%35 to 39 years 5,653 5,839 186 3% 0.79 4%40 to 44 years 5,747 4,673 (1,074) (19%) 0.79 (11%)45 to 49 years 7,057 5,504 (1,553) (22%) 0.91 (7%)50 to 54 years 7,383 5,890 (1,493) (20%) 1.01 (13%)55 to 59 years 6,824 6,888 64 1% 1.08 (10%)60 to 64 years 5,854 7,435 1,581 27% 1.14 (1%)65 to 69 years 4,688 6,824 2,136 46% 1.21 2%70 to 74 years 3,612 5,682 2,070 57% 1.20 7%75 to 79 years 3,106 4,182 1,076 35% 1.23 12%80 to 84 years 2,529 2,848 319 13% 1.27 13%85 years and over 2,558 2,985 427 17% 1.38 7%

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

North Central Idaho - Region 2

Aging Work Force

Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov

208.332.3570 ext-3217

Thanks for your time!

September - 2007By Dennis Cauchon

Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly!

• Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500.• Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400.• December 2010 published estimate is about 602,000. • Record Year-Over-Year job of losses of around 48,300.• Total losses just over 58,000 recorded throughout 2010.

Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy

21

What are the three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho

22

Three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho

• Population / In-migration

• The Great Demographic Shift

• Education and Training

• Following the current recession employment in Idaho is projected to increase more than 15 percent over the next decade.

• If annual job replacements are also taken into account, job openings will rise to more than 28,000 annually.

Idaho’s Long-Term Employment Outlook

#1 Shifting demographic - Aging baby boomers- Everyone is living longer

- Technology keeps us alive longer

#3 With longer lives come health problems (Healthcare Industry)

#4 Net in-migration made up of many retirees#5 Low cost of living#6 Competitive business costs

Factors driving healthcare and other industry and occupational growth