malta international airport 1

EVALUATION FORECASTING

M. S. Awad

CASE STUDY

SLIDES OF PRESENTATIONS AT 2013

EVALUATION SLIDE

Forecasted 2013 3,921,384 Pax

ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013

Annual Error = 2.81 %

ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014

Annual Error = 3.21

Using the same parameters of the previous model

FORECAST

FORECAST 2013

M. S. Awad

MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

OUTLINE Introduction Objective Conditions for Fair

Forecast Data Base ( 5 Years

) Passenger/Aircraft/

Cargo Forecast 2013

Max/Min Signal Tracking Analysis

Results Accuracy Conclusions

MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

The concept of forecasting by Objective is used.

Three DATA Sets are addressed – Passengers, A/C Movements, and Cargo.

Introduction Using 3 years on monthly bases i.e 36

data set

MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Max/Min Signal Tracking approach

Objective To forecast Passengers, Aircraft and Cargo

movements based on Max/Min Signal Tracking approach. ( best forecasting scenario )

MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Conditions for Fair forecast Coefficient Of

Determination

R2 > 80%

Signal Tracking

- 4 < S. T. < 4

MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS

PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS

EVALUATION ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013

Forecast 2013

3,921,384

AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

CARGO MOVEMENTS

CARGO MOVEMENTS

RESULTS:

Three Data Sets are analysis – Forecast 2013

Traffic Passengers - 3,921,384R2 = 99.0 S.T. = ± 4.98 ( Fair )

Aircraft Movements – 28,009 Cycle R2 = 97.4 S.T. = ± 4.22 ( Fair )

Cargo Movements - 15,199,433 Kg R2 = 34.3 S.T. = ± 4.55 ( Poor )

ACCURACY:

Accuracy of Forecast :

2 Mislead but can be fair

1 Poor

CONCLUSIONS:

Traffic forecasting will be a positive trend at + 6% growth, it will be expected to have 3,921,384 Pax in 2013. and shows a fair seasonality patterned. (Evaluation shows a fair results )

Aircraft Movements: in this category – results show a negative trend, it expected to have 28,009 cycles in 2013, this may be due to changing aircraft type to have more capacity by the airlines operators in Malta airport. Recommend to use most recent data method (2012) to forecast to avoid negative trend.

For Cargo, there is no correlation even though a forecasting patterned is developed, but that may not reflect a good forecasting results. Cargo Movements - 15,199 Tonne

UPDATE – FORECAST 2015

UPDATE – FORECAST 2015MAX/MIN SIGNAL TRACKING ANALYSIS

ERRORS VS PERFORMANCE (MODEL UPDATED)

ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013 (MODEL UPDATED)

Annual Error = 0.98 %

ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014 ( MODEL UPDATED )

Annual Error = -1.25 %

Using the update input figures for 2012-2014 .

Monthly Errors always less than 5% for 2012,2013, & 2014.

FORECAST 2015 ( FOR RECORD )

Passenger Forecast

2015 = 4,727,871 Pax

WELCOME IN THE CLUB

CONTACT Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Tel: 00967735222692

Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com Webs: ww.slideshare.net/

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