market overview january 2011. total single family sales for jan-nov 2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010...

Market Overview

January 2011

Total Single Family Sales for Jan-Nov

2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010Douglas and Sarpy Counties

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2007 2008 2009 2010

6097

74256524

7416

Sales Trends2009 vs. 2010

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 Overall

2009

2010

-24%

-11%

+6.5%+4%+5%

-16%

Total Sales 2009 vs. 2010

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

2009

2010

Inventories Increase in 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 TOTAL

Dec-09

Dec-10

+17%

+11%

+13%-7% +3%

+12%

New Construction Inventories

Increase in 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 TOTAL

Dec-09

Dec-10+19%

+15% -16%-45%

+4%

+8%

Median Price $75,000 - $150,000 1%

Median Price$150,000 - $250,000

1%

Median Price$250,000 - $400,000 2%

Median Price$400,000 - $600,000

2%

Median Price$600,000 - $2,000,000

11%

Total Sales Fall ’09 vs. Fall ‘10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

SEPT OCT NOV DEC

2009

2010

Consumer Expectations Survey

AUG MAY JULY NOV JAN

2007 2010 2010 2010 2011

89.2 85.3 66.6 74.2 80.3

2010-2011GDP FORECAST

FANNIE MAE

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22.1 0.7 1.2 0.9

Source: http://www.fanniemae.com/media/economics

NATIONAL HOUSING FORECAST

FANNIE MAE

2009 2010 2011 Mean Mean Forecast

Mean

5,530,000 5,199,000 5,432,000

CHANGE -6% CHANGE +5%

Nebraska Economy

Agriculture StrongInsurance StrongManufacturing DownTransportation DownHousing Down

Never has a “bubble

Unemployment StrongLowest Rate in the U.S.

35.9 35.9

Source: http://www.creighton.edu/business/economicoutlook/index.php

Nebraska Purchasing Manager Index

4753 52 51 50

5459

63 63 64 65 6357 57

50 5256

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

2010 VS. 2009

Non Ag. Business/Finance +1.5%

Manufacturing +2.5%

Construction No Growth

UNL Bureau of Business Research

1.) Recovery likely to continue

2.) Rick of Double Dip Recession

3.) Weakness in Real Estate sector

“FEARFULLY OPTIMISTIC”

Positives

1. Lower House Prices2. Higher savings rates

- Lower indebtedness

- Spending in line with income

3. Income growth supports- Consumption

- Job Growth- Rising working hours

Positives cont.4. Business Growth

- Exports- Technology

5. Fiscal Government restraint- Divided Federal Gov’t- Cost restraint Federal and State Levels

- Gov’t cost restraint would encourage

investment* Domestically* Internationally

Negatives

• Slow new construction

• Buyers inability to sell existing home to enable purchase of a new home

• Increased remodeling

• Strong refinance activity

The 2011 OutlookOmaha Outlook

Employment +1.5%Population +1.5%Income +4.5%New Jobs 7000

Self Employed Strong GrowthLabor Force Slow GrowthUnemployment Rate to 4.5%

Source: UNL Bureau of Business Research

The 2011 OutlookReal Estate Markets

1. Improving Consumer Expectations

2. Improving Omaha Economic Conditions

3. Moderate but steady increase in activity in early 2011

4. High Inventories

5. Prices initially soft but firm up as inventories decline

The 2011 Outlook

HIGH END HOUSING

Market focus on “needs” vs. wants

Conservative buyer behavior

High Real Estate Taxes

Soft Pricing Trends

The 2011 Outlook

1.Dependant on Market Mood

a. Election - Done

b. Tax Laws - Done

c. Diminished expectation of new “stimulus”

The 2011 Outlook

2. Pent up Demand

a. Build up of buyers who went to the sidelinesb. New buyers/sellers will move for typical reasonsc. Could result in an active spring

market

The 2011 OutlookGeneral Market

Sales fall between 2008 and 2009 levels

Mean for 1st half of 2008 & 2009

693 sales per month in 2008vs.

806 sales per month in 2009

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