market overview january 2011. total single family sales for jan-nov 2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010...
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Market Overview
January 2011
Total Single Family Sales for Jan-Nov
2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010Douglas and Sarpy Counties
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
6097
74256524
7416
Sales Trends2009 vs. 2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 Overall
2009
2010
-24%
-11%
+6.5%+4%+5%
-16%
Total Sales 2009 vs. 2010
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200
2009
2010
Inventories Increase in 2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 TOTAL
Dec-09
Dec-10
+17%
+11%
+13%-7% +3%
+12%
New Construction Inventories
Increase in 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 600,000 TOTAL
Dec-09
Dec-10+19%
+15% -16%-45%
+4%
+8%
Median Price $75,000 - $150,000 1%
Median Price$150,000 - $250,000
1%
Median Price$250,000 - $400,000 2%
Median Price$400,000 - $600,000
2%
Median Price$600,000 - $2,000,000
11%
Total Sales Fall ’09 vs. Fall ‘10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
SEPT OCT NOV DEC
2009
2010
Consumer Expectations Survey
AUG MAY JULY NOV JAN
2007 2010 2010 2010 2011
89.2 85.3 66.6 74.2 80.3
2010-2011GDP FORECAST
FANNIE MAE
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22.1 0.7 1.2 0.9
Source: http://www.fanniemae.com/media/economics
NATIONAL HOUSING FORECAST
FANNIE MAE
2009 2010 2011 Mean Mean Forecast
Mean
5,530,000 5,199,000 5,432,000
CHANGE -6% CHANGE +5%
Nebraska Economy
Agriculture StrongInsurance StrongManufacturing DownTransportation DownHousing Down
Never has a “bubble
Unemployment StrongLowest Rate in the U.S.
35.9 35.9
Source: http://www.creighton.edu/business/economicoutlook/index.php
Nebraska Purchasing Manager Index
4753 52 51 50
5459
63 63 64 65 6357 57
50 5256
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
2010 VS. 2009
Non Ag. Business/Finance +1.5%
Manufacturing +2.5%
Construction No Growth
UNL Bureau of Business Research
1.) Recovery likely to continue
2.) Rick of Double Dip Recession
3.) Weakness in Real Estate sector
“FEARFULLY OPTIMISTIC”
Positives
1. Lower House Prices2. Higher savings rates
- Lower indebtedness
- Spending in line with income
3. Income growth supports- Consumption
- Job Growth- Rising working hours
Positives cont.4. Business Growth
- Exports- Technology
5. Fiscal Government restraint- Divided Federal Gov’t- Cost restraint Federal and State Levels
- Gov’t cost restraint would encourage
investment* Domestically* Internationally
Negatives
• Slow new construction
• Buyers inability to sell existing home to enable purchase of a new home
• Increased remodeling
• Strong refinance activity
The 2011 OutlookOmaha Outlook
Employment +1.5%Population +1.5%Income +4.5%New Jobs 7000
Self Employed Strong GrowthLabor Force Slow GrowthUnemployment Rate to 4.5%
Source: UNL Bureau of Business Research
The 2011 OutlookReal Estate Markets
1. Improving Consumer Expectations
2. Improving Omaha Economic Conditions
3. Moderate but steady increase in activity in early 2011
4. High Inventories
5. Prices initially soft but firm up as inventories decline
The 2011 Outlook
HIGH END HOUSING
Market focus on “needs” vs. wants
Conservative buyer behavior
High Real Estate Taxes
Soft Pricing Trends
The 2011 Outlook
1.Dependant on Market Mood
a. Election - Done
b. Tax Laws - Done
c. Diminished expectation of new “stimulus”
The 2011 Outlook
2. Pent up Demand
a. Build up of buyers who went to the sidelinesb. New buyers/sellers will move for typical reasonsc. Could result in an active spring
market
The 2011 OutlookGeneral Market
Sales fall between 2008 and 2009 levels
Mean for 1st half of 2008 & 2009
693 sales per month in 2008vs.
806 sales per month in 2009
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