master thesis nr. 315 a simulation platform for power trading
Post on 15-Feb-2016
48 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Department of Telecommunications
MASTER THESIS Nr. 315
A SIMULATION PLATFORM FOR POWER TRADING
Jurica Babić
Zagreb, July 2012
Department of Telecommunications
Outline
¨ Background and motivation¨ Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC)¨ CrocodileAgent 2012
2 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
Background and MotivationTransition from traditional to smart grids
¨ Some limitations of traditional power grids: centralized production energy losses not able to cope with intermittent and decentralized renewables
(e.g., wind turbines and solar panels) ¨ Smart grids:
ICT layer - advanced grid management new market opportunities
3 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
1. market design needed
Motivation and background (2)Smart grid as an enabler of market applications
4 of 14
Traditional grids
Smart grids
2. risk-free environment for testing needed
Department of Telecommunications
Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC)Introduction
¨ Power market simulator¨ International project (6 universities)¨ Purpose – test market designs for smart grids¨ Combines market agents and the element of competition¨ Software agent in a role of self-interested broker:
buys and sells energy for customers intention of earning a profit minimizes energy imbalance
5 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
Distribution utility – owns/operates local grid
(regulated monopoly)
Large Energy Suppliers
Retail CustomersProducers, Consumers, Prosumers
Power TAC
Brokersbuild portfolios,buy and sell power
Tariff Market
Sim
ulati
on e
nviro
men
tPa
rtici
pant
s
Balancing
MarketWholesale Market
Power TACGame scenario
6 of 14
CrocodileAgent 2012
Visualizer
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Overview
¨ A software agent for power trading in Power TAC¨ Emphasis was placed on:
customer market (i.e., tariff market) activities wholesale market activities forecasting using Holt-Winters method
¨ Modular design¨ Main advantage is its active tariff offering adjustments
7 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Tracks customers energy usage patterns
8 of 14
No periodicity – WindmillCoOpWeekly periodicity – OfficeComplex
Daily periodicity – CentervilleHomes
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Holt-Winters: customers energy usage forecasting
¨ = Holt-Winters (trained by minimizing NRMSE)¨ = energy usage values¨ = periodicity¨ = number of forecasted values
9 of 14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Usage
Predicted usage
TAC hours
Ener
gy u
sage
(MW
h)OfficeComplex: actual vs predicted values
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Activities in the customer market
¨ Chooses and applies an appropriate tariff model: fixed price multi-rate flate rate (with periodic payment*) special tariffs
¨ Evaluates existing tariffs: deriving tariff utility replacing low-rated tariffs with new ones
* amount of money each of the subscribed customers pay in each TAC hour to the broker
10 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Wholesale market in Power TAC: day-ahead market
11 of 14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647480
10
20
30
40
50
TAC hours
Pric
e [€
]
Hour-ahead display of market clearings
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Activities in the wholesale market (2)
¨ = past wholesale clearing prices¨ bidding strategy: higher prices for closing markets
Energy usage forecast + wholesale price forecast + bidding strategy = wholesale order
12 of 14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2420
30
40
50
60
Clearing price
Predicted clearing price
Pric
e [€
]
TAC hours
Wholesale prices: actual vs predicted values
Department of Telecommunications
CrocodileAgent 2012Improving competition design
¨ CrocodileAgent 2012 has identified two main drawbacks in the current game design: infinite periodic payment
customers are ignorant toperiodic payment
PAC-MAN syndrome frequent spawn of similar
tariffs yields to a highermarket share
¨ more rounds in a yearly cycle of Power TAC needed13 of 14
Department of Telecommunications
Conclusion and Future Work
¨ Power TAC is a promising simulator for the evaluation of market design ideas
¨ CrocodileAgent design focus: customer and wholesale market activities
¨ Holt-Winters method for forecasting¨ Proposal: more rounds of Power TAC ¨ Future Work: more sophisticated portfolio and wholesale m.
management
14 of 14
top related