mississippi population fact sheet · population growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087)...
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Mississippi Fact Sheet
Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy
A Report to the Governor
Dr. Mimmo ParisiProfessor of DemographyDepartment of Sociology
Mississippi State University
January 19, 2018
2017 Population Growth by the Numbers
Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net International Migration)
Population Growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087)
Population Growth = 6,498 – 7,798
Population Growth = -1,300
Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes numbers of births and deaths, net domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/
3
Mississippi Population, 2000-2017
2,848,353
2,852,994
2,858,681
2,868,312
2,889,0102,905,943
2,904,9782,928,350
2,947,8062,958,774
2,970,437
2,977,452
2,982,963
2,987,721
2,988,578
2,985,297
2,985,415
2,984,115
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Popu
latio
n
YearSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4
This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).
The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total population has remained fairly stable.
Births by the Numbers
Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017
39,74639,430
38,505
38,71538,578
37,951
37,373
36,000
36,500
37,000
37,500
38,000
38,500
39,000
39,500
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Year
Overall Decline: -2,373
An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6
Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate
4.30
3.89 3.823.63 3.64 3.55
4.10 4.07 4.063.90
3.34
3.012.74
2.522.25
2.03 1.92
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Teen
age
Preg
nanc
y Ra
te
Year
Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.
Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017.https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html
7
Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type
1.68 1.77
3.37
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education
Perc
ent T
hat E
xper
ienc
ed B
irth
Even
t
Curriculum Type
Statewide: 1.9
Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016.https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx
Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system.
8
Migration by the Numbers
Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017
-190,508-138,195
-114,779-57,274
-27,515-25,793-23,984-23,089-22,270
-14,150-13,537-12,698-12,395-10,507-10,470
-9,938-9,885-8,613-8,205-7,437-6,653-3,854-3,493-2,724-2,086-1,050
-976-918
1,0241,1521,9763,8404,4844,6874,7185,3767,9418,666
17,56824,597
36,65337,97538,22740,23241,107
49,01563,11164,57966,051
79,163160,854
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000New YorkCalifornia
IllinoisNew Jersey
LouisianaPennsylvania
MarylandMassachusetts
ConnecticutKansasHawaii
MichiganVirginia
West VirginiaOklahoma
AlaskaMississippi
WyomingOhio
New MexicoNorth DakotaRhode Island
NebraskaIowa
WisconsinMissouriIndiana
VermontKentucky
District of ColumbiaSouth Dakota
AlabamaDelaware
New HampshireArkansas
MaineMinnesota
MontanaUtah
IdahoColorado
OregonNevada
TennesseeGeorgia
South CarolinaArizona
WashingtonNorth Carolina
TexasFlorida
Domestic Migration
Stat
e
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/
Mississippi is not the only state to have a negative net domestic migration. There are 27 states that have experienced negative net domestic migration, and Mississippi does not have one of the largest declines. The takeaway from this graph is that Mississippi is in line with national trends.
10
2963288679331,2731,4891,5571,5781,9282,0872,2362,7222,7713,4994,1604,4754,7984,8535,0195,4476,1986,7036,8367,0147,3227,6967,7127,9578,0768,2689,97310,46911,410
16,20516,46017,758
20,16222,13123,179
25,87025,984
29,03133,36533,699
37,38945,298
56,942110,417
130,411144,165
164,867
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
MontanaWyoming
West VirginiaVermont
South DakotaNorth Dakota
AlaskaMaineIdaho
MississippiNew Hampshire
DelawareNew Mexico
ArkansasDistrict of Columbia
AlabamaRhode Island
NebraskaUtah
South CarolinaKansasHawaii
IowaKentucky
OklahomaLouisiana
OregonNevada
MissouriWisconsin
ColoradoTennessee
IndianaArizona
MinnesotaConnecticut
North CarolinaOhio
MichiganGeorgia
WashingtonMaryland
VirginiaIllinois
PennsylvaniaMassachusetts
New JerseyTexas
New YorkFlorida
California
International Migration
Stat
e
Net International Migration, 2016-2017
Negative domestic migration is typically counterbalanced by international migration, which is mostly comprised of Asians and Hispanics. Unlike other states, Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. The state ranks as one of the lowest in the country.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11
Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017
Like other states, Mississippi gains and loses population to other states in the union. The migration flow is not unidirectional, where people simply leave, but rather bidirectional, where some move out and some move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly suggest that many people see Mississippi as a place to live and work.
Mississippi also experienced a positive net migration from 11 states. More people came to Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana Michigan, New York, and West Virginia than residents moving from Mississippi to each of these states.
In contrast, 70 percent of the total negative net migration resulted from more people moving from Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving to Mississippi .Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 12
Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi
Mississippi Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States
Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017Moving from Other States
to MS Counties Moving Out of MS Counties
To Other States
Mississippi County Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States
Each county experienced residents moving in from other states, but also residents moving out to other states. Migration flows are state processes that touch all of the counties in the state, with some gaining and some losing population. Eight counties have gained population, with Desoto, Hancock, and Pearl River counties experiencing the largest gains.
87 percent of the total population loss in the state comes from a few counties, with Hinds county experiencing the largest loss followed by Lauderdale, Oktibbeha, Forrest, Washington, Harrison, and Lowndes counties.
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 13
Millennials by the Numbers
Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population
23.624.424.925.225.425.725.825.926.026.026.026.026.126.126.226.226.326.426.426.426.526.626.626.726.726.726.826.826.826.927.027.027.027.027.127.227.227.327.427.427.527.927.928.028.028.528.728.729.0
30.130.6
37.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
MaineWest Virginia
FloridaNew Hampshire
HawaiiNew Jersey
MontanaDelaware
ConnecticutNorth CarolinaSouth Carolina
VermontOhio
PennsylvaniaKentucky
WisconsinMichiganAlabama
South DakotaTennessee
ArkansasIdaho
MissouriMaryland
MinnesotaNew Mexico
IowaNevadaOregonVirginiaArizonaIndiana
MississippiWyoming
NationKansas
NebraskaIllinois
GeorgiaWashington
OklahomaLouisiana
Rhode IslandMassachusetts
New YorkColorado
CaliforniaTexas
AlaskaNorth Dakota
UtahDistrict of Columbia
Percent
Stat
e
When we look at the total share of the millennial population, Mississippi is right on the national average, suggesting that the state’s millennial population is stable.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15
Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers
82%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Generation X (35-50) with their Children
Millennials (17-35)
Estimates on migration flow from the American Community Survey indicate that millennials have the least negative net outmigration in the state. This is consistent with current literature suggesting that millennials are not as mobile as other generations. The estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that the largest negative net outmigration in the state are experienced by people in the age group of 35-50, commonly known as Generation X. Estimates from the American Community Survey also indicate that baby boomers experience a positive net in migration, suggesting that this age group are growing in the state.
Source: American Community Survey, 2017.16
College Educated Millennials Leaving State of Residence
4%5%
6%6%
7%7%7%7%7%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%
9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%11%11%11%11%11%
11%11%11%12%
13%13%
14%14%14%15%
16%18%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
CaliforniaTexas
LouisianaNew York
MinnesotaIllinoisFlorida
OhioWashingtonTennesseeNew Jersey
MichiganArkansas
PennsylvaniaMassachusetts
ArizonaKentucky
GeorgiaColorado
North CarolinaNebraskaOklahomaWisconsin
AlabamaOregon
MissouriWest Virginia
MarylandIndiana
MississippiNation
South CarolinaMaine
KansasDelaware
ConnecticutIowa
NevadaSouth Dakota
VirginiaHawaii
New MexicoUtah
New HampshireMontana
Rhode IslandNorth Dakota
VermontIdaho
WyomingDistrict of Columbia
Alaska
Percent
Stat
e
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017.https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t
Estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that Mississippi, like the rest of the nation, experiences a 10 percent outmigration of college educated millennials. Mississippi population patterns for its millennials are no different than the national trends.
17
Brain Drain by the Numbers
Students Working in Mississippi Within 1 Year of Graduating
69%
81%78%
74%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Community CollegeAssociate of Arts
Community CollegeAssociate of Applied
Science
Community CollegeCertificate
University In-State University Out-of-State
Perc
ent E
mpl
oyed
Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017.
A large majority of our students in the two and four year college systems choose to live and work in the state. In contrast, a very small number of our out-of-state students choose to live and work in the state. This is consistent with the estimates on migration patterns reported by the American Community Survey. The state experienced a average annual net growth of more than 4,000 individuals aged 18-19. The American Community survey also indicates that this net gain is counterbalanced by the loss of these students once they graduate.
19
In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment Growth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In-State Out-of-State
Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 20
Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students.
Out-of-State Enrollment at Mississippi IHL Universities
Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017.
14.75
15.25
17.17
20.88
22.81
23.39
24.24
33.64
44.38
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00
MUW
UMMC
DSU
USM
MVSU
JSU
ASU
MSU
UM
Percent
21
This graph reports percentage of university total enrollment made up of out-of-state students. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the universities that attract more out-of-state students.
Economic Indicators by the Numbers
1,136,706
1,111,2551,104,225
1,096,802
1,105,9151,111,269
1,122,474
1,135,336
1,131,096
1,081,138
1,074,617
1,076,4881,085,748
1,093,581 1,102,603
1,114,379 1,124,854
1,128,924
1,040,000
1,050,000
1,060,000
1,070,000
1,080,000
1,090,000
1,100,000
1,110,000
1,120,000
1,130,000
1,140,000
1,150,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jobs
Year
Annual Covered Employment, 2000-2017
Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only 6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few years.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
23
Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation(Constant 2017 Dollars)
Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are based on 2017 constant dollars.
$36,788$36,497
$37,117$37,434
$37,983$38,475
$38,779$39,327$39,134
$39,518$39,071$39,153$39,018$39,026$39,111
$39,706$39,659
$40,532
$35,000
$36,000
$37,000
$38,000
$39,000
$40,000
$41,000
$42,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Aver
age
Annu
al P
ay (2
017
Dol
lars
)
Year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
24
Mississippi General Fund Contributions
Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10 years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in disposable income as the result of real wage increases.
$1,000,000,000
$1,100,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,300,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,700,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$1,900,000,000
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
Gen
eral
Fun
d D
olla
rs
Year
Individual Income Tax
$1,600,000,000
$1,650,000,000
$1,700,000,000
$1,750,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$1,850,000,000
$1,900,000,000
$1,950,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,050,000,000
$2,100,000,000
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
Gen
eral
Fun
d D
olla
rsYear
Sales Tax
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2017.http://www.dor.ms.gov/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx 25
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