modelación bdhondurasen

Denisse McLean

Belize, August 2010.

46%

11%4%0%

2%

37%

1. Present the modeling results to keystakeholders and decision makers.

2. Help countries in the implementationof a new model run with updated information

To present the fundamental concepts of GLOBIO methodology and to present theresults of the modeling exercise for theregion and the country

Land use:◦ Light use: hunting and gathering◦ Moderate use: selective extraction, extensive pastures◦ Conversion: agriculture, wood extraction, forest

plantations, cultivated grasslands

Natural area fragmentation

Pollution: Nitrogen deposition, nutrientleaking, toxic substances, noise, lights

Water, changes in hidrology

Climate change: emissions, temperature increase

Direct and indirect economic values

Importance for poverty reduction

Ecosistem goods and services provision protection

Political commitment to the Convention on BiologicalDiversity◦ Significant reduction of the rate of biodiversity loss

National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (170 countries)

Original

Biodiversity

Habitat destruction

Overexplotation

Pollution

Infrastructure and fragmentation

Climate Change

Sustainable use

Restoration

Mitigationmeasures

ProtectedAreas

100%

0%

Developed by the Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency

(PBL) and the United Nation Environmental Program (UNEP)

Methodology to measure and evaluate biodiversity loss due to

the effect of human pressures

Estimates the relative importance of each pressure

Evaluates the exchanges between socioeconomic developments

and the environment at the global, regional and national scale

Evaluate current state

Identify trends and evaluate policy options

Estimulate discussion

Integrate biodiversity as a transversal issue

Support decision making

What is the current state of biodiversity?

Which are the causes of biodiversity loss?

What will be the future state?

Will (nationals/internationals) targets be attained?

Which options can be taken to attain them?

Goals

past present

Policy options

future

EnvironmentBiodiversity

Known as MSA

Single indicator used in the methodology to assessbiodiversity

Mean abundance relative to original abundance in undisturbed state

Proxy of the indicator of “abundance and distritution of a set of selected species” recommended by CBD

Land use (intensity and changes)

Road infrastructure

Natural area fragmentation

Climate change

Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition

MSA

GlobalUNEP Global Biodiversity Outlook2, and Geographic Environmental Outlook 4, OECD & FAO Environmental Assessments

RegionalGloblal deserts, Environmental Performance Assessment of the Mekong subregion, EU-Ruralis, Central America

NationalColombia, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Panama, Mexico, Nicaragua, Kenya, Mozambique,Zambia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Tailandia, Vietnam

ProvincesYunan (China), Quang Nam (Vietnam)

GLOBIO Applications

13

14

Global Model

Alkemade et al., 2009

Global Model

When other indicators do not provide enough information about the state of biodiversity in an area

When information is only available for specific areas

When looking to identify and analyse biodiversity loss trends

16

When looking to evaluate the impact of human pressures in biodiversity

When looking to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of environmental policies

When looking to prove if policies will attain the expected environmental objectives

Methodology and indicator limitations◦ Contexts of application◦ Figures vs. Trends◦ Need to complement with other indicators

Input quality

Models are not definitive and should be improved based on available information

In order to generate incidence results should be embedded in a specific policy process

Thank you