modeling the impacts of climate change – changes made in a species specific modeling system jim...

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC

MODELING SYSTEM

Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside Invited presentation at 9th Biennial Conference of Research

on the Colorado Plateau Oct 29 - Nov 1, 2007Flagstaff, Arizona

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES

MADE BEING MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC MODELING

SYSTEM

Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside

The species specific modeling system is:

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/missoula/4151/SIMPPLLE/

SIMPPLLE is designed to:

Be a management tool Provide user access to “system knowledge” Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues

Current version of SIMPPLLE – utilizes a simplified climate variable

Current version of SIMPPLLE – utilizes a simplified climate variable

Only choices availablefor a time step

Bark beetles and drought in Southern California Spruce bark beetle and warming in SC Alaska Cheatgrass and wildfire interaction in Mesa Verde Park

Current version of SIMPPLLE – utilizes a simplified climate variable that has been used to address:

Two studies that are contributing to thechanges in SIMPPLLE:

Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach

The FRAME Project – A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Natural Resource Management at Mesa Verde National Park

Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach

Funded by the National Institute for Climatic Change Research (NICCR)

Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach

Flagstaff

8 million acres +

Objectives:

Develop individual species-specific climate models identifying suitable climate space.

Develop an ecosystem model at the landscape scaleusing the SIMPPLLE framework that simulates ecosystem disturbance processes using species-specific relationships.

Simulate species-specific mortality and migration in response to climate under downscaled GCMscenarios in SIMPPLLE.

Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach

1. Include climate input

2. Include the “suitable climate space” for each species

3. For each individual plant community, add a comparison of projected climate variables with the suitable climate space for each species

4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological

processes based on this comparison.

Four changes in SIMPPLLE that have to be made:

SIMPPLLE is designed to provide in one system the interaction between vegetation and other landscape components; land units, aquatic units, and man-made features.

vegetation

dem

Each landscape componentis a separate class inSIMPPLLE with spatialrelationships and attributes derived from the GIS environment

1. Include climate model output as input

The climate is another class. The attributes and spatial relationships to the other classes comes from adding climate as a “feature class” within ESRI’s ArcGIS.

vegetation

dem

Climate layer – feature class

Our ArcGIS SIMPPLLE toolbox will have one morelayer

Add “climate feature class”

User interface screen for examiningindividual vegetation units with links to other types of units

Will add the climate unit.

Climate Units

An expansion of the “species attributes” already in SIMPPLLE.

Visible to users.

We want the users to be able to identify how significant the difference between the projected climate variables and these values are.

We want the users to think about “thresholds” where differences will start to influence ecological processes.

2. Include the “suitable climate space”

Add access to “Suitable Species Space” from the species attributes screen

A diagram for each variable

precipitation

temperature

Interactions betweentemp and precip

Degree days

Soil moisture

CO2

---

---

other variables

Allow for the delineation of “threshold zones”. If the comparison of simulated climate variables to the suitable space variable fall within a “zone” a specific change to system logic will be made.

Zone of no adjustments

Reduce growth, Increase impact of bark beetles

Increase probability ofbark beetles, reduce probabilityof regeneration, increase droughtmortality

Remember, SIMPPLLE is designed to:

Be a management tool Provide user access to “system knowledge” Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues

This design facilitates:

Be a management tool Provide user access to “system knowledge” Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues

Published in the Proceedings of the Eight Biennial Conferenceof Research on the Colorado Plateau

Regeneration logic Successional pathways (growth) Probability of insect and disease occurrence Next vegetative state resulting from insects and

disease Changes in fire logic – type of fire, fire spread

4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological processesbased on comparison.

Regeneration logic Successional pathways (growth) Probability of insect and disease occurrence Next vegetative state resulting from insects and

disease Changes in fire logic – type of fire, fire spread

4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological processesbased on comparison.

All of these components have logic screens that can be expanded to include columns for: “climate variable x / zone number y”

Regeneration logic

Regeneration logic

Will add columns choices for thecombination of “climate value / zone”with a probability value for the regeneration occurring. Users can select the climate values for each typeof regeneration and modify the defaultprobability values.

Disturbance logic – bark beetles in pinyon pine - juniper

Disturbance logic – bark beetles in pinyon pine - juniper

Will make the logic rules more species specificand add climate variable columns to adjust theoriginal probability of occurrence.

Succession pathways – time is size classes (growth)

Succession pathways – time is size classes (growth)

Time between states – will itincrease or decrease?

In the default pathways, the occurrence of bark beetles causes enough mortality to dropthe density by one canopy cover class.

Disturbance pathways – the next state if a process occurs

Change in climate variables - additional stress = increased mortality

Disturbance pathways – the next state if a process occurs

Fire logic – type of fire

Fire logic – type of fire

Replace the original moisture and temperature columnswith “climate variable x / zone y” columns

Fire logic – fire spread

Fire logic – fire spread

Replace the original moisture and temperature columnswith “climate variable x / zone y” columns

The FRAME Project – A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Natural Resource Management at Mesa Verde National Park

Through USGS partners – continue to build on the design of SIMPPLLE

vegetation

dem

To make the other landscape components dynamic interacting with the vegetation changes

Working through theCoLab at ColoradoState University

To utilize the ObjectModeling System

To link SIMPPLLE and PRMS

Debris-Flow Probability Model Susan Cannon, et al., USGS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), ARS Aquatic Habitat model

To evaluate other modelsto link with SIMPPLLE

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES

MADE BEING MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC MODELING

SYSTEM

Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside

Invited presentation at 9th Biennial Conference of Researchon the Colorado Plateau Oct 29 - Nov 1, 2007

Flagstaff, Arizona