module 2_hydromet hazards 4
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SUSAN R. ESPINUEVA
HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION,
PAGASA, DOST
Department of Science and Techno logy
Phi l ippine Atmospher ic, Geophysical and A stronomical Services Administ rat ion
Hazard 102:Hydro-meteorological Hazards (Part 4)
Flood forecasting & warning system
Training on Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners8 January 2013, Tagaytay City
Project on Enabling Cities in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope
with Climate Change (Project Climate Twin Phoenix)
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.nidm.net/images/flood6.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.nidm.net/flood5_ii.asp&h=317&w=498&sz=16&tbnid=xQsMwHR6MnYJ::&tbnh=83&tbnw=130&prev=/images?q=flood+disaster+pics&usg=__OxfdyzuXcEc7in4yM2hADUqjZi8=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=2&ct=image&cd=1http://h/wiki/New_Orleans -
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Flood forecasting and warning
Flood Forecasting and
Warning is giving advance
notice that a flood is
imminent or is in progress
at a certain location or in a
certain river basin.
- Accuracy
- Timeliness
Flood Forecast ing and warning
can on ly be don e if a r iversystem or watershed is
equipped w ith a moni tor ing
facil it ies , i.e. rainfall and water
level monito r ing faci l i t ies and a
good commun icat ion system.
Network of rainfall & water level stations
for flood forecasting & warning system in
the Pampanga river basin
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Definition of flood/flooding/inundation
Overflowing by water of the normal confines of a stream or
body of water, or accumulation of water by drainage over
areas which are not normally submerged.
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Objectives of flood forecasting & warning system
- to forewarn the people living in the low-lying
areas of the increase in water level of the riverand the expected flood situation;
- to forewarn people living in the target area of
the dam on the present and expected flood
situation; and
- to alert the agencies concerned with flood
control and /or flood fighting activities in the
event of the occurrence of flood.
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Network of existing PAGASA hydrological stations
Monitored telemetered
major river basins (5)
18 Major river basins
Monitored telemetered
major reservoirs
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1. Telemetered of fully automatic system
Facilities of a
TelemeteredFlood
Forecasting
and Warning
System
(FFWS)
Water Level
Station
Flood Forecasting and Warning Center
Control
Station
Field
Center
Rainfall Supervisory
Rainfall Station
Patrol
Car
Relay Station
Water Level
Supervisory
Warning
Station
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Existing telemetered gauging stations
River basin / dam RR WL Date
1. Pampanga river basin 17 10 1973
2. Agno river basin 12 9 19833. Bicol river basin 11 7 1983
4. Cagayan river basin 5 5 1983
5. Pasig-Marikina-Laguna lake
EFCOS (MMDA)
KOICA (PAGASA)
ASTI (DOST)
7
17
11
16 1993
6. Angat dam 4 2 1986
5. Pantabangan dam 5 1 1986
6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 6 2 19927. San Roque dam 3 2 2003
8. Magat dam 6 2 1992
9. Ipo/La Mesa dam 2 2
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Generation of hydrologic (flood) forecasts
How are
hydrologic
(flood)forecasts
generated?
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Inputs Forecast Model Outputs
Rainfall forecasts
from Numerical
Weather Predictionmodels
Satellite data
Rainfall observation
Observed water
level /discharge
Hourly hydrographs
Inundation map
Rainfall estimates
from radar
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Flood information issued by PAGASA
River basin Flood information Time of issuance
Telemetered
major river
basins (PABC)
Flood bulletins
Hydrological
forecasts
5AM & 5PM,
intermediate bulletins
are issued at 11AM
and 11PM
Daily at 8AM
Telemetered(Angat,
Pantabangan,
San Roque &
Magat
Flood bulletinsFlood Warning
Information
Dam Updates
As the need arises
6:30AM (non-flood
season)Non-
telemetered
river basins
General Flood
Advisories (GFA)
5AM and 5PM
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Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation
Agencies involved in the FFWSDOproject implementation:
NPC /
NIA
PAGASA
DPWHNWRB
OCD
Dam authorities in their
respective areas of jurisdiction
National flood and warning
forecasting center
Monitoring agencies
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FFWSDO Protocols
DAM
DISCHARGEWARNING
MANUAL
NPC/NIANPC/NIA
PAGASA
FLOOD
OPERATION
RULE
MANUAL
FLOODWARNING
MANUAL
Prescribes the
rules in managing
the inflow andoutflow of the
reservoir during
high flows.
Activities undertaken to
alert/warn people in the target
area of dams & concernedagencies on the expected flood
situation so that appropriate
countermeasures & emergency
actions can be taken to mitigate
flood damage.
Defines the activities
undertaken to
disseminate info to thepublic on the rising of
WL in the target river
due to the release of
water from the dam to
prevent damage to
inhabitants.
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Standard Forms for FFWSDO
Form Type of Info FROM TO Tape#
1 Commencement of Preparatory Phase PAGASA Dam Office
2 Report on Commencement ofPreparatory Phase
Dam Office PAGASA
3 Commencement of Flood Warning
Phase
PAGASA Dam Office
4 Report on Commencement of Flood
Warning Phase
Dam Office PAGASA
5 Flood Bulletin & Request for
Dissemination
PAGASA Dam Office Tapes
A-L
6 Report on Completion of Dissemination Dam Office PAGASA
7 Request for Dissemination of Flood
Disaster Info
PAGASA Dam Office
8 Report on Completion of Dissemination Dam Office PAGASA
9
10
Termination of Flood Warning
Operation
Report on Completion of
Dissemination of Termination
PAGASA
Dam Office
Dam Office
PAGASA
Tape M
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Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation
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Dissemination scheme for basin and dam flood bulletins
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Background Information
In the Philippines, thereare 18 major river basins.
Before 2006, earlywarning system (EWS)on flood covered majorriver basins.
However, the PAGASAextended theestablishment of EWS inother river basins due tothe increasingoccurrence of floodingin the country.
CAGAYANABRA
AGNO
PAMPANGA
PASIG-MARIKINA-LAGUNA DE BAY
BICOL
PANAY
ILOG
HILABANGAN
JALAUR
TAGALOAN
CAGAYAN DE ORO
AGUS LAKE LANAO
MINDANAODAVAO
TAGUM -
LIBUGANON
BUAYAN --
MALANGUN
AGUSAN
ABULOG
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Strategies in the establishment of CBFEWS
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Institutions involved in CBFEWS
INSTITUTIONS:
1. Local Government Units(Province/City/Municipality)
2. PAGASA
3. Office of Civil Defense (OCD)
4. Department of Interior and LocalGovernment (DILG)
5. NGOs
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Components/activities in the implementation of CBFEWS
1. Consultation meeting with LGUs
- Roles and responsibilities of stakeholders are explained;proposed network design is presented, etc.; counterpart
activities; MOAs, etc.
2. Site survey and ocular inspection
- check available communication system, etc., questionnaires;
MOA signing, etc
3. Installation of monitoring facilities, flood signages
& hydrographic surveys establish assessment levels;
4. On-site training of observers
5. Seminar on data observation/ retraining
6. Special IEC and flood drill/dry run
7. Turn over of CBFEWS to LGUs
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Issuance of warnings will be based on:
Water Level Meaning Flood Warning
Level 1 1.1 m Awareness READY
Level 2 1.5 m Preparedness GET SET
Level 3 2.0 m Response GO
GO
12
31. Assessment
water levels
2. Threshold
values of
rainfall
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Flood Warning ProtocolWarning Signal/ Info Water level at the
monitoring station
Meaning
1 bell or 1-second ofbrief siren for every 2
seconds for 30
seconds
Water level hasreached Level 1 READY
People aremadeaware of an
impending flood.
2 bells or two 1-
second siren for
every 2 seconds for
30 seconds
TheLevel 1reached
the Level 2 in30
minutes or less
GET SETPeople
are advised toprepare
for a possible flood.
Continuous ringing
of bells or siren for
20 to 30 seconds.
Water level at the
monitoring station
reachedLevel 3
GOPeople are
advised torespond/
evacuatefor an
expected flood.
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Strategies of CBFEWS
PDCC RDCCFlood info
WarningPhase
1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO
Weather
Update/Info
Data/Flood
Advisory/
Warning
Target
Community
DisasterOperation Center
(DOC)Municipal Hall
Communicationof Warning1 - MDCC2 BDCC3 Local
Volunteers
WeatherUpdate /Info
BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level
Observers
PAGASA- Field Station
RR Observers
Flood
Advisory
Data/Ra
infall
Obs
ervationWeather
Update/Info
Weath
er
Updat
e/Info
Bandillo
Megaphonew/sirenChurch Bells
RiverObservation1 Color2 Speed of Flow3- Sound4 Presence of
Debris
Data/R
ainfall
Obse
rvation
Legend: Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).
Information starts here in case of local/small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm andITCZ).
EvacuationCenter
PDCC RDCCFlood info
WarningPhase
1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO
Weather
Update/Info
Data/Flood
Advisory/
Warning
Target
Community
DisasterOperation Center
(DOC)Municipal Hall
Communicationof Warning1 - MDCC2 BDCC3 Local
Volunteers
WeatherUpdate /Info
BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level
Observers
PAGASA- Field Station
RR Observers
Flood
Advisory
Data/Ra
infall
Obs
ervationWeather
Update/Info
Weath
er
Updat
e/Info
Bandillo
Megaphonew/sirenChurch Bells
RiverObservation1 Color2 Speed of Flow3- Sound4 Presence of
Debris
Data/R
ainfall
Obse
rvation
Legend: Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).
Information starts here in case of local/small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm andITCZ).
Legend: Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).
Information starts here in case of local/small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm andITCZ).
EvacuationCenter
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Existing FEWS in the Philippines
SURIGAO
provinces
LEYTE
provincesDUMANGAS,
Iloilo
BULACANprovince
ZAMBALES
province
Lagunaprovince
Telemetered orfully automatic
Manual &community based
Telemetered and
communitybased
Evolution of FFWS & FFWSDO in the PH
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Evolution of FFWS & FFWSDO in the PH
EO 2011 Ipo telemetered FFWSDO - operational
2012 Caliraya FFWSDO will be operational
1983
Agno, Bicol
& Cagayan
River Basins
FFWS
Pampanga
River Basin
(PRB) FFWS
1973 1986 1993 2009 20112010-2012
Angat &Pantabangan
FFWSDO
1992
Binga /
Ambuklao
& Magat
FFWSDO
Pasig-
Marikina-
Laguna LakeEFCOS
(MMDA)
2003
San Roque
FFWSDO
Upgrading of
Pampanga
FFWS
Upgrading of
Agno FFWS /
Enhancement
of Pasig-
Marikina
JICA-TCP:
Upgrading of
FFWSDO
1978
1972
2004
Flood disaster
in Bulacan
Flood disaster
in Bulacan
Design inflow of
Angat - exceeded
Flood due to
Ondoy & Pepeng
2012-2013
GoJ:
Upgrading of
Bicol FFWS
Norad:
Magat FWSDO
Flood due Pedring
& Sendong
Upgraded FFWS: Pampanga & Agno river basins
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Upgraded FFWS: Pampanga & Agno river basins
Challenges opportunities & WAY FORWARD
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Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD
1. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in
the other 13 major river basins in the country2. Installation of 1000 monitoring stations (rainfall
and water level gauges all the major river and
principal river basins
3. Implementation on FEWS projects (local and
foreign funded)
4. Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the
extent or limits of inundation
NOAH program(DOST)
5. Continue flood hazard mapping activities
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Key to flood risk mitigation
Lesson from the MM flood in Sep 2009:
The key to better planning and reconstruction efforts is to
recognize that flooding in the has become conditional. It
depends on land use conditions, urbanization and climate
variability and change. - Nilo & Espinueva, 2009
Essentially, the involvement of the local government
units and the communities at risk is critical in anyflood risk mitigating measure.
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The source of man's unhappinessis his ignorance of Nature.
- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
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