moray rumney's presentation at emerging communication conference & awards 2010 america
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Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Macro Trends and
Predictions in Mobile
Broadband
Moray Rumney
Agilent Technologies
© Copyright 2009 Agilent Technologies, Inc.
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
What we would like in Mobile Broadband…
Simplicity and economies of scale:
- One worldwide wireless standard for everything
- One air interface
- One frequency band
- One core network
- One application development framework
- And no IPR (that we don’t own…)
For 2G, GSM substantially achieved this in 1992
For 3G, UMTS faltered in 1999 but 3.5G is picking up by 2008
For 4G, what is the outlook?
Page 3
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular
What we learned from GSM (2G)Scale matters 4 billion devices worldwide
Ubiquitous low-rate services work and are hugely profitable (voice/SMS)
What we learned from UMTS (3G)A fat circuit-switched data pipe doesn’t cut it
Coverage matters
What we learned from HSPA (3.5G)Packet-switched data is essential for mobile broadband
When the megabits finally start flowing, data density matters
Macro networks can only do so much – we need small cells for capacity
Pricing data at 1% of voice is not sustainable
What we learned from the iPhoneUsability and apps are vastly more critical to innovation than air interfaces
Wi-Fi is an effective way to offload low-grade traffic from cellular
Page 4
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
What can wireless learn from Transportation?
Trains, Planes and Automobiles: The film
The film is the story of the trials and tribulations
of an American executive (Steve Martin) trying
to get home for Thanksgiving
At every turn his preferred method of transport
is thwarted - He does get home – eventually!
We understand his plight
because most of us can
relate stories of our own
We also understand his
plight because we have a
deep understanding of
the range of transportation
available to us
Trains, plans and automobiles
Moray Rumney
February 17th 2010Page 5
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Transportation – a mature industry
Transportation has taken thousands of years to evolve
This has allowed us time to get used to four key elements
Performance What to expect – capacity, speed etc.
Value What different options are worth to us
Price What we pay for different options
Cost What it costs to provide a particular service
New transportation options do
come along – like Virgin Galactica
Space Tourism – but in general,
transportation is very stable
Page 6
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Properties of a mature and sustainable industry
For an industry to be mature requires the following:
• We must understand the performance – i.e. what to expect
• From this we can assess the value to us individually
• We then can choose from the options and pay the price
If the industry is to be sustainable then
• The value must exceed the price paid
• The price paid must exceed the cost of delivery
Page 7
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Mobile Broadband – a very new industry
True mobile broadband has only very recently come upon us
• The rise of HSDPA, 1x-EV-DO and public Wi-Fi
But is this industry mature and sustainable?
What about its stability?
Page 8
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010Page 9
We want planned order
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010Page 10
…and the space (spectrum!) to deploy it
Denver
Note use
of spatial
diversity!
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010Page 11
5G 2G
3G
4G
1G
But what we have looks more like Heathrow!
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
IS-136TDMA
PDCGSMIS-95Acdma
Cellular wireless: Almost nothing is obsolete in 20 years
2G
Incre
asin
g e
ffic
ien
cy,
ban
dw
idth
an
d d
ata
rate
s
2.5
G
3G
3.5
G
3.9
G
4G
HSCSD iModeGPRSIS-95Bcdma
LTE-Advanced
Rel-10802.16m
E-GPRSEDGE
IS-95Ccdma2000
W-CDMAFDD
W-CDMATDD
TD-SCDMALCR-TDD
HSUPAFDD & TDD
1xEV-DORelease B
1xEV-DORelease A
1xEV-DORelease 0
HSDPAFDD & TDD
UMBLTE
Rel-8Edge
EvolutionHSPA+
802.16eMobile
WiMAXTM
802.11g
802.11a
802.11b
802.16dFixed
WiMAXTM
802.11n
802.11h
WiBRO
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010Page 12
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Consequence: 4G Mobile device design circa 2010
LTE-Advanced
LTE
High spectral
efficiency
A-GPS
TD-LTE
Multi-band (29)
Multi-RAT
HSPA+
MBMS
TD-SCDMA
1xEV-DO(B)
Wi-FI
802.16e
802.16m
EDGE-Evolution
VoIP
Multi-Carrier
MIMO
Interference
cancellation
High battery
efficiency
Bluetooth
Green
wireless
Low cost
Dongle or phone
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010Page 13
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010Page 14
Performance - Which is the best car?
$2,500 $1,500,000
Answer: Both! It depends on the problem you are trying to solve
Page 14
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Performance varies across the cell based on SINR
Page 15
Cell edge /
poor conditions
Cell edge /
poor conditions
Cell centre /
good conditions
Position in cell /
radio conditions
Peak performance
(ideal / single user)
Average performance
(per user:10 users/cell)
Cell edge performance
(per user: 10 users/cell)
Th
rou
gh
pu
t
With each
wireless evolution,
the ratio between
cell edge and
peak performance
has increased
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
So which really matters in mobile broadband?
Page 16
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Performance per user by format
Page 17
Throughput
Format
Occupied
BandwidthPeak
(Single user)
Average(10 users/cell)
Cell Edge(10 users/cell)
Raw Peak/
edge ratio*
GSM (1 slot) (10
users, freq. reuse = 4)1 MHz 9.6 kbps 9.6 kbps 9.6 kbps 1
GPRS (4 slot) 4 MHz 81.6 kbps 50 kbps 36.2 kbps 2.3
EDGE (4 slot) 4 MHz 236.8 kbps 70 kbps 36.2 kbps 6.5
UMTS (Rel-99) 5 MHz 384 kbps 100 kbps 30 kbps 12.8
HSDPA (Rel-5) 5 MHz 3.6 Mbps 250 kbps 80 kbps 45
HSDPA (Rel-7) 5 MHz 42 Mbps 350 kbps 120 kbps 350
HSDPA (Rel-8) 10 MHz 84 Mbps 800 kbps 240 kbps 350
LTE (Rel-8) 4x4 20 MHz 300 Mbps 5.34 Mbps 1.6 Mbps 187
LTE-A (Rel-10) 4x4 20 MHz 600 Mbps 7.4 Mbps 2.4 Mbps 250
* Ratio can be reduced at the expense of cell capacity by using proportional scheduling
A high peak to average performance ratio is bad for user experience
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Is Mobile Broadband sustainable today?
Price
Service
Data rate
/ volumePrice €
Cost /
MByte
Price /
MByte
Relative
price
SMS160 Bytes
€0.15 /
message€ X €1000 400,000
Voice10 kbps
€0.05 to €0.5 /
minute€ Y € 0.7 - € 7 300 - 3000
Data service
(capped at 3
GBytes)
3 GBytes €20 / month € Y/5 € 0.007 3
Unicast Mobile
TV (Capped at
50 hrs)
50 Hours
@ 100
kbps
€5 / month € Y/5 € 0.0023 1
Page 18
With many of today’s data pricing plans, the cost of delivery exceeds
the price which exceeds the value – this is not a sustainable situation
Trains, plans and automobiles
Moray Rumney
February 17th 2010
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Wireless capacity growth
In the last 50 years wireless capacity has increased by around
1,000,000
This growth has come from better efficiency, more spectrum
and more cells in roughly this ratio:
Gro
wth
facto
r
1
10
100
1000
2025
2000
Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells
10000
Growth has
historically been
dominated by the
increase in the
number of cells
Page 19
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Capacity growth potential for the next decade
Gro
wth
po
ten
tial
1
10
32
100
Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells
100
Using current projections, the increase of cell numbers (small cell
spectrum reuse) remains the dominant means of growing capacity
Page 20
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010
Small cell potential:
Moving from 1 base
station / 1000 users
to 1 base station / 10
users
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Projecting ahead shows the gap between average
and peak rates in a loaded cell will grow to 90x
Data rates x 100000
Efficiency x 87
Spectrum x 13
1100x capacity
A 90x gap will exist
by 2015
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1000000000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Peak rates Average Efficiency Spectrum Capacity
The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized
The outlook is that
average efficiency
and spectrum will
fall further behind
peak rates
Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are
normalized to single-band GSM in 1992
83 users/cell occupying 25 MHz @ 9.6 kbps
Page 21
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
The macrocellular dilemma
To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all
required:
1. High data rates with the capacity and density to match
2. Ubiquitous coverage
3. Low or reasonable cost
For macrocellular networks, pick any two!
Page 22
Conclusion: High efficiency macrocellular can’t deliver
substantial growth in capacity.
Some form of small cells is essential.
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
FCC decision on Net Neutrality
What dos it mean for wireless?
“Broadband providers cannot discriminate against
services or applications by slowing them down”http://www.openinternet.gov/read-speech.html
What if we assumed other services were unlimited?
Stubbed toe of the decade perhaps?
But the operators are fighting back!
Page 23
Is that the DoD?
I’d like dad’s
newspaper delivered
by helicopter please!
No charge of course.
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Predicting winning technology
Often the “best” doesn’t win
• Ethernet vs. Token ring
• 802.11b vs. HiperLAN
• Windows 3.1 vs. Unix
• Iridium vs. GSM
• Esperanto vs. English
• What about femtocells vs. Wi-Fi
“Perfection is the enemy
of the good”Gustave Flaubert
French Novelist 1821 - 1880
Page 24
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
The small cell challenge
Femtocells Vs. Wi-Fi
The capacity density opportunity offered by small cells is clear
But which technology will win?
There are many parameters to this debate but effective control
of interference is critical for unplanned high density deployment
Page 25
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
What happens when any two femtocells are
co-sited on the same frequency?
Page 26
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010
Significant challenges, especially for closed subscriber group
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
53 APs visible from one San Francisco restaurant.
Can you spot it?
Page 27
Trends in wireless evolution
Moray Rumney
April 16th 2010
Not ideal but it still functions due to 802.11 cognitive design
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010Page 28
Scale also matters:
WiFi chips will out-ship cellular phones by 2012
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
What will it take for 3.9G/4G technology to displace
existing cellular and deliver a unified vision?
Sufficient clean spectrum in which to gain a foothold (e.g.
European 800 MHz band, 2.6 GHz band)
Network optimization to milk opportunities and overcome
challenges with OFDM
Demonstrated performance to drive obsolescence of legacy and
evolving older technologies leading to refarming
Solution to Voice support caused by the packet-only network
Proof that IMS is a viable solution for mobile systems
Economies of scale to drive down prices to below legacy
systems
But leave high capacity density to small cells
Page 29
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Summary
Macrocellular can provide ubiquitous medium performance mobile broadband
Everything else needs to be offloaded to small cells with Wi-Fi well in the lead
The mature cellular market will migrate to low cost & complexity technology
Page 30
High cost &
complexity
Multi-format
Multi-band
Multi-antenna
Fragmentation
Low QoS
Short battery life
High peak to
average
performance
High efficiency
Low cost &
complexity
Fewer formats
Fewer bands
Fewer antennas
Consolidation
High QoS
Long battery life
High average
performance
Low peak to average
performance
Medium/low efficiency
Cellular Smileometer TM
Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband
Moray Rumney
19th April 2010
Thank you for listening!
Page 31
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