mosaic m ultidisciplinary drifting o bservatory for the s tudy of a rct i c c limate
Post on 24-Feb-2016
44 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
MOSAiCMultidisciplinary drifting Observatory
for the Study of Arctic Climate
Ad hoc Organizing CommitteeMatthew Shupe – U. of ColoradoKlaus Dethloff – Alfred Wegener Inst.Ola Persson – U. of ColoradoMichael Tjernström – Stockholm U.
Science Plan Writing TeamSebastian Gerland, Jun Inoue, Craig Lee, Brice Loose, Alexander Makshtas, Wieslaw Maslowski, Walt Meier, Marcel Nicolaus, Dirk Notz, Ilka Peeken, Don Perovich, Julia Schmale, Timo Vihma, Jinping Zhao
Francis et al. 2009
Dukhovskoy et al. 2006
www.iarc.uaf.edu
The central Arctic is changing dramatically, characterized by major sea-ice decline & more younger ice.
Do we know why? and (importantly) how?
Courtesy J. Stroeve
Arctic in Transition
Sept. 2012
nsidc.org
1979-2000 median
• We lack a system- and process-level understanding of change, due to a lack of observations!
• Potential emergence of new processes, tipping points• Feedbacks with “globally significant consequences” (IPCC)• Implications for regional and lower-latitude weather• Implications for resource development, commerce, ecosystems,
productivity, communities
Implications of Change
Francis et al. 2009 noaa.gov
Incoming solar radiation200 W m2
Reflected by clouds, aerosol & atmosphere 45
26
70
Reflected by surface
Absorbed by atmosphere
59
Turbulence
3
3 Evapo-transpiration
3
3 257 231
231237
20
20
133
Surface radiation Absorbed by surface
reflected solar radiation115 W m2
back radiation
emitted by atmosphere
30
Outgoing longwave radiation 183 W m2
Absorbed by surface
+98
+2
-100
2
ARCTIC ENERGY BUDGET (f > 65°N)
Sea ice Sea ice
96
Sea-Ice Energy Budget
Persson et al. 2013
Decadal decline can be explained by ~1 W/m2 excess. Kwok and Untersteiner 2011
Critical Model Shortcomings
~ 0 W m-2~ 0 W m-2
~-25 W m-2
~-10 W m-2
Tjernström et al. 2008
Regional Climate Models evaluated against SHEBA radiative fluxes reveal major biases and spreads, especially under clouds. Such biases can have serious implications for sea-ice concentrations.
Critical Model Shortcomings
Comparison of IPCC AR4 models of sea-surface salinity:
Major differences suggest lack of consistency in important processes such as ocean mixing, dynamics, sea-ice processes, freshwater input, and/or others.
Holland et al. 2007
Best estimate of actual field based on observations
Multi-year, coordinated, and comprehensive measurements, extending from the atmosphere through the sea-ice and into the ocean, are needed in the central Arctic Basin to provide a process-level understanding of the changing central Arctic climate system that will contribute towards improved modeling of Arctic climate and weather, and prediction of Arctic sea-ice concentrations.
The MOSAiC Plan
What: 1) Deploy heavily instrumented,
manned, ship-based, Arctic Ocean observatory for comprehensive, coordinated observations of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean.
2) Network of spatial measurements to provide context and variability (buoys, gliders, UAVs, aircraft, ships, satellites, ice stations).
3) Coordinated modeling activities at many scales from process-study to regional climate models.
The MOSAiC Plan
When: Start 2017-2018, covering multiple annual cycles if possible
Where: Central Arctic Basin ice pack
Who: • Coordinated through IASC • International participation
(e.g. US, Germany, Sweden, France, Russia, Finland, Norway, Canada, Korea, Japan, China,….)
• International infrastructure• Synchronized international
funding September 2011 sea ice extent (courtesy NSIDC). Numerous drift tracks of stations suggest possible observatory tracks
The MOSAiC Plan
Leading Science Question:“What are the causes and consequences of an evolving and diminished Arctic sea ice cover?”
MOSAiC Science Drivers
Sea-ice Lifecycle as a Theme. Use a sea-ice “Lagrangian” perspective, where ice
processes integrate forcings from atmos and ocean.
o How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?
o What are the processes and feedbacks affecting sea-ice cover, atmosphere-ocean stratification and energy budgets in the Arctic?
o What is the effect of an ice-reduced Arctic on biological productivity and what are the consequences of this on other components of the system?
o How do interfacial exchange rates, biology and chemistry couple to regulate the major elemental cycles?
o How do the different scales of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the atmosphere, ice and ocean interact to impact the linkages or feedbacks within the system?
MOSAiC Science Questions
• Process-study vs. climatology• Process perspective suited to parameterization evaluation & development• Requires complex measurements to characterize interdependent processes• Distributed measurements for spatial variability & context on key parameters
Process Perspective
Oce
an
Sea
-ice
A
tmos
pher
e
Measurements
Micro-meteorology
gases, aerosols, clouds & precip.
atmospheric profiling, BL, & dynamics
leads & ocean surface
ocean state, profiling, & dynamics
aircraft + UASs
ocean and ice bio/chem
buoys, AUVs, gliders
ice profiling, thermodynamics, mass budgets
surface energy budget
Transpolar Drift track
Objectives:• Observe full sea-ice “life
cycle,” starting in new ice.• Trajectory that will last for
at least (more than) 1 year• Observe an understudied
region
Challenges:• Central Arctic is isolated• First year ice will be
difficult
2011
Planning the Drift Track
• Arctic climate system has memory. Sea-ice integrates energy budgets.• Processes vary over the annual cycle.• Important to understand all phases of the sea-ice life cycle:
Formation > growth > transport/deformation > melt/decay/export• Past observations biased towards summer (warm, easy);
Relatively little understanding of winter processes.
Full Annual CyclePerovich et al. 2008
Persson et al. 2002
Previous experiences within the Arctic ice pack:
Russian drifting stationsSHEBAShorter-term campaignsMany disciplinary obs.Some inter-disciplinary obs.
Each of these has key limitations:Length of timeComprehensiveness Spatial contextNot in the “new” Arctic
Russian drifting station
SHEBA
Building off the Past
Central Model Role
Models play critical roles: • Identify important
measurements, processes• Guide drift track• Integrate process
information• Provide spatial context• Linkage w/ lower latitudes
Model considerations:• Hierarchy of model activities:
process, regional, global• Regional model intercomparison
project• Model “testbed” > Critical data for
parameterization evaluation & development
• Strong ties with WWRP Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Central Model Role
A Recognized NeedMOSAiC concept is specifically recognized as important:• IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2013-2017• US Arctic Observing Network Coordination Workshop 2012• DOE US-EU Workshop on Climate Challenges and Observations 2012• NASA Arctic Boreal Zone Workshop 2012• WWRP Polar Predictability Program, Implementation Plan 2012• IASC endorsement 2012
And clearly addresses specific needs:• US SEARCH 5-year goals (sea-ice), 2012• US AON Status Report (atmos/ocean/sea-ice), 2009• US National Ocean Policy (sea-ice), 2012• US Navy Arctic Roadmap (coupled modeling, sea-ice), 2009• NOAA Arctic Vision & Strategy (sea-ice forecasting, science), 2011
“Improve the understanding of atmosphere, sea-ice, and ocean system interactions through a combination of enhanced observations and process-based modeling studies.” US SEARCH 5-Year Goals
Thanks!
MOSAiC into the FutureTentative MOSAiC Schedule
Develop Science Plan – spring-summer 2013 Writing workshop – 29-30 May 2013, Potsdam
Implementation Workshop and Plan – spring2014 MOSAiC Open Science Meeting – likely 2014 Start serious funding discussions: 2013> Logistics planning 2013> Preparatory modeling & instrument development 2013> Field deployment September 2017?, 2018?
www.mosaicobservatory.org
top related