mse and coastal zone management bill de la mare cmar february, 2011

MSE and Coastal Zone Management

Bill de la Mare

CMAR

February, 2011

Adaptive management

WorldDecisionRules

OutcomesHumanactivity

Measurements

Objectives

Adaptive management simulator

Model worldManagementDecisions

Outcomes

Modelhumanactivity

Simulated measurements

Objectives

Performance criteria

ManagementObjectives

ManagementProcedure

Exploited Population CatchCatch

DataDataEstimation of

Status

DataData

Physical WorldManagement WorldInvestment

Benefits

Fisheries

Regulationsand Catch Limits

Constraints

Environment

Social

Economic

Natural Capital

Institutional

More Best possible

Aspirations

Environment

Social

Economic

Natural Capital

Institutional

More Best possible

Environment

Social

Economic

Natural Capital

Institutional

More Best possible

Environment

Social

Economic

Natural Capital

Institutional

More Best possible

Reachable

space

Dealing with structural uncertainty and scenarios

Model World 1Outcome

s

Modelhuman

activity 1

Simulated measurements

Performance criteria

Model World 2

Model World 3

Model World n

Objectives

......

Modelhuman

activity 2

Modelhuman

activity n

...

Decisions

Component models in C2C MSE

Management decision and action models

Rural land-usemodels

Urban land-usemodels

River and stream biophysical models

Receiving water quality biophysical models

Selected taxa models

EHMP model

Future weather and climate scenarios

Future development scenarios

Assessment against objectives: environmental, social, economic

Water treatmentmodels

The information you …

… have is not the information you want

… want is not the information you need

… need is not the information you can obtain

… can obtain costs more than you can afford

Sod’s Law of Information

Objectivesof client or organiser

Science / Expertfacts, relationships,

models, maps, scenarios

ParticipatoryIntegrated Assessment

procedures, group interaction, moderation, information presentation,

scenarios, surprises

Policyfacts, relationships,

models, maps, scenarios

Policy-oriented synthesisfacts, relationships,

models, maps, scenarios

Adaptive management “open loop” simulator

Model world

Outcomes

Modelhumanactivity

Simulated measurements

Objectives

Decision maker

Adaptive management “closed loop” simulator

Model world

Outcomes

Modelhumanactivity

Simulated measurements

Objectives

Simulated decision maker

ManagementObjectives

ManagementStrategy

Natural capital CatchEcosystemservices

DataData

DataData

Physical WorldManagement WorldInvestment

Benefits

Economicactivities

Managementactions

Constraints

Estimation of status

DataData

DataData

Science / Research

AssessmentPolicy development

Political decision

Information flow

Strong / normative

Weak / normative

Weak

Very weak / absent

Current paths to science impact

Influence of assessments

External Factors-Historical context-User characteristics

Design of assessment-Process-Product

RelevanceCredibilityLegitimacy

Influences on:-Understanding-Goals-Decisions-Behaviour

RelevanceCredibilityLegitimacy

Influence of assessments

External Factors-Historical context-User characteristics

Design of assessment-Process-Product

RelevanceCredibilityLegitimacy

Influences on:-Understanding-Goals-Decisions-Behaviour

RelevanceCredibilityLegitimacy

Science / Research

AssessmentPolicy development

Political decision

Information flow

Strong / normative

Normative

Useability

More effective paths to science impact

Proposed increment in human activities

Region highlyImpacted?

Plan with existing/qualitative

models

Sustainability Probable?

OK

Plan with highfidelity models

A

Yes

Yes

No

No

Precautionary approachhas been satisfied

Multiple-useIssues?

Single-use MSE

Sustainability Probable?

OK

Multiple-use MSE

A

Sustainability Probable?

Adjust proposeduse

Rebalancemultiple uses

Yes

YesYes

No

No NoPrecautionary approachhas been satisfied

Science Challenges

Frontier science (combining natural and social sciences)

Interaction between natural and socio-economic systems

Complexity

Irredeemable uncertainty

Institutions, governance and policy

Competing demands, values and interests

Diversity of stakeholders

Uncertain management goals

Scarce scientific resources