multiple co-benefits of a fundamental energy transformation

Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

Technische Universität Wien xx

naki@iiasa.ac.at

Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental

Energy TransformationPerspectives from the Global Energy Assessment

ALPS International Symposium on “The frontiers of scenarios for climate

change research and assessment”, Nadao Hall, Tokyo – 9 February 2011

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IIASAIIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisand its international partners present the

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

The Global Energy Assessment

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● Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs and LAs and >200 Anonymous Reviewers

● Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors is complete - ongoing responses and revisions.

● Final report (Cambridge Univ. Press) in June 2011 followed by vigorous dissemination

3

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Towards a more Sustainable Future

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Integration of Knowledge Clusters

● Cluster I characterizes nature and magnitude of challenges, and express them in selected indicators

● Cluster II reviews existing and future resource and technology options

● Cluster III integrates Cluster II elements into systems, and links these to indicators from Cluster I

● Cluster IV assesses policy options, and specifically identifies policy packages that are linked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in an iterative fashion.

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Sponsoring Organizations

International OrganizationsGEF

IIASA

UNDESA

UNDP

UNEP

UNIDO

ESMAP (World Bank)

Industry groupsFirst Solar

Petrobras

WBCSD

WEC

Governments/AgenciesAustria - multi-year

European Union

Germany

Italy

Norway

Sweden - multi-year

USA (EPA, DoE)

FoundationsUN Foundation

Climate Works Foundation

Global Environment & Technology Foundation

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Access to energy and ecosystem services

(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating

climate change brings multiple co-benefits

Energy transformations require R&D and

rapid technology diffusion & deployment

Sustained energy investments are needed

and would result in multiple co-benefits

Global Energy Transformations

Nakicenovic #7 2010

Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005

Nakicenovic #8 2010

Food for a Week, Germany© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005

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Billions of people:

Abject poverty: 1.3

Poor: 0.6

Less poor: 1.4

Middle class: 1.6

Rich: 1.2

3.3

2.8

Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

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Health Benefits of Pollution Control(loss of stat. life expectancy - PM)

Source: Dentener et al, 2009

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Data: NASA 1880-2010

Earth is Warming

Global warming predicted(Sawyer, Nature 1972,

Broecker, Science 1975)

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IPCC AR4 SRES A1B

Source: Realclimate 2010

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Global Carbon Emissions

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Access to energy and ecosystem services

(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating

climate change brings multiple co-benefits

Energy transformations require R&D and

rapid technology diffusion & deployment

Sustained energy investments are needed

and would result in multiple co-benefits

Global Energy Transformations

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Biomass

~500 GtC

Biomass

~500 GtC

Soils

~1,500 GtC

Atmosphere

850 GtC

Oil

~250 GtgCN. Gas

~250 GtC

Oil

~250 GtCN. Gas

~250GtC

Unconventional Hydrocarbons

15,000 to 40,000 GtC

Coal

~ 12,000 GtC

Unconventional.

Gas

~1000 GtC

UnconventonalOil

~1150 GtgC

Global Carbon Reservoirs

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Estimated shale gas resource

14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Pri

mary

En

erg

y (

EJ)

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Global Primary Energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Microchip

Commercial

Television

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Pri

mary

En

erg

y (

EJ)

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Global Primary Energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Microchip

Commercial

Television

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

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1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

EJ Primary Energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

GEA -

Efficiency

GEA -Mix

GEA-Supply

WBGU

RCP 3-PD

WEC-C1

[r]evolution

REMI

NS-RECIPE

ETP BLUE

POLES

REMINS-ADAM

MERGE-ETL

Global Primary Energy

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Access to energy and ecosystem services

(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating

climate change brings multiple co-benefits

Energy transformations require R&D and

rapid technology diffusion & deployment

Sustained energy investments are needed

and would result in multiple co-benefits

Global Energy Transformations

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Example of savings by reconstruction

Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-90%15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Before reconstruction

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006

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Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes

Source: WBCSD, 2005

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Source: EPRI

Energy SuperGrid and MagLev

Potential Synergies between New Energy and

Transport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”

Super Cables Super Cables

Power linesPower lines

Electric Power Research institute ©

Source:

Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

MAGLEV

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Access to energy and ecosystem services

(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating

climate change brings multiple co-benefits

Energy transformations require R&D and

rapid technology diffusion & deployment

Sustained energy investments are needed

and would result in multiple co-benefits

Global Energy Transformations

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Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

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Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

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Trade-Offs & Co-Benefits

● With GEA Scenarios: Explore implications of

global climate mitigation for local energy

security concerns and air pollution control

Explore development of security indicators in

2oC climate scenarios

Assess potential economic co-benefits of

different combinations of security and climate

policies

Multi-Criteria Analysis to understand policy

interactions (security/pollution/climate)

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Joint Modeling Framework

Systems engineering

global energy model

(MESSAGE)

Global climate model

(MAGICC)

Multi-criteria analysis tool

(MCAA)

NAM

PAO

WEU

EEU

FSU

MEA

AFR

LAM

SAS

PAS

CPA

1 NAM North America 2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 3 WEU Western Europe 4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe

5 FSU Former Soviet Union 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa 8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China

9 SAS South Asia 10 PAS Other Pacific Asia 11 PAO Pacific OECD

OECD

REFS

ALM

ASIA

Source: IIASA

Source: O’Neill, B.C., K. Riahi, and I. Keppo , 2010 (PNAS)Source: IIASA

Create wide range of scenarios:

Different stringency for regional energy import constraints

Different levels of climate mitigation

Different stringency of pollution control

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Energy Transformationsdepend on the ranking of policy priorities

Mid-term GHG/pollutant

emissions levels (2050)

BestWorst

Regional energy trade

(share of PE)

Diversity of trade (index)

0% 100%

100%

Low

X trill

0%

High

Y trillTotal energy system cost

More preferable, but

more difficult

+80% -80%

Long-term climate target

(prob. of 2 ºC warming)Environment

Energy

Security

Economy

Pollution and health

impacts (years of life lost) High Low

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IIASAIIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

naki@iiasa.ac.atwww.IIASA.ac.at

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org