national oceanic and atmospheric administration...

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

ArkLaMiss, Mar. ‘16 Houston, Apr. ‘16 WV, June ‘16 LA, Aug. ‘16 Matthew, Oct. ‘16

Billion Dollar U.S. Flood Disasters in 2016

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Greg Carbin

Chief, Forecast Operations Branch

NCEP/Weather Prediction Center

College Park, Maryland

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

ArkLaMiss, Mar. ‘16 Houston, Apr. ‘16 WV, June ‘16 LA, Aug. ‘16 Matthew, Oct. ‘16

Billion Dollar U.S. Flood Disasters in 2016

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

$25 Billion in Losses *

* Source: NCEI www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf

98 Fatalities *

5 Fatalities 8 Fatalities 23 Fatalities 13 Fatalities 49 Fatalities

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

National Weather Situational Awareness

WPC Mission: Provide precipitation and medium range forecasts to enable national

readiness for hazardous weather events.

Heavy Rainfall

Actionable information that is scientific, probabilistic, & impact-based

Winter Weather

Medium Range

Hazards

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

“ArkLaMiss” Flooding Rains, March 8-10, 2016

● Highly anomalous PW ~50mm (1.97 inches)

● 12-24 inch rainfall amounts in 48-hours

● Five fatalities and extreme flash flooding

● 500-1000 year recurrence interval event

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

● Highly anomalous PW ~50mm (1.97 inches)

● 12-24 inch rainfall amounts in 48-hours

● Five fatalities and extreme flash flooding

● 500-1000 year recurrence interval event

“ArkLaMiss” Flooding Rains, March 8-10, 2016

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

2016

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n Example mean: 1.6% coverage

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

20160310: 8.6% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Houston Flooding Rains, April 15-18, 2016

● 16.22 inches at Monaville, TX (northwest of Houston)

● Bulk of rainfall in 6- to 8-hour time span

● Eight fatalities and extreme flash flooding

● Particularly vulnerable metropolitan area

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

19-year mean:1.6%

2016

19-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

20160418: 5.8% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

|--- 8 pm EDT 6/22 through Midnight EDT 6/24 ---|

Accumulating Rainfall (inches) at Lewisburg, WV (LWB)

24-hour Flash Flood GuidanceFFG ~3 inches at LWB

24h Maximum Rainfall ~ 7”+

West Virginia Flooding Rains, June 22-23, 2016

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

● Extreme rainfall in vulnerable basin (terrain)

● 23 fatalities from flash flooding

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

24h Maximum Rainfall ~ 7”+

West Virginia Flooding Rains, June 22-23, 2016

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

● Extreme rainfall in vulnerable basin (terrain)

● 23 fatalities from flash flooding

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

20160624: 3.6% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Historic Louisiana Flooding Rains, August 11-13, 2016

8/7/168/8/168/9/168/10/168/11/168/12/16

LLL

LLL

L

8/13/16

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Historic Louisiana Flooding Rains, August 11-13, 2016

● 22-24 inches in 48-hours near BTR and Abbeville, LA (max 31.39!)

● Widespread flood of historic proportions, 13 fatalities

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Historic Louisiana Flooding Rains, August 11-13, 2016

● 22-24 inches in 48-hours near BTR and Abbeville, LA (max 31.39!)

● Widespread flood of historic proportions, 13 fatalities

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

20160813: 5% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Hurricane Matthew’s Flooding Rains, October 6-10, 20164 Day Precipitation Totals (valid 00Z 10/06/2016 - 00Z 10/10/2016)

WPC Surface Analysis (valid 12Z 10/08/2016) overlaid with track of Matthew

● Catastrophic flooding after 15-20 inches of rain

● 49 fatalities, millions of dollars in property losses

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Hurricane Matthew’s Flooding Rains, October 6-10, 2016

● Catastrophic flooding after 15-20 inches of rain

● 49 fatalities, millions of dollars in property losses

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

20161009: 3.3% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

2016 Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18-year mean:1.6%

2016

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

? ?

20160216: 10.3% coverage 20161129: 9.5% coverage

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

18 Years of Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

18-year mean:1.6%

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

18 Years of Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

18-year mean:1.6%

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

How has the annual daily mean changed over time?

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

% o

f CO

NU

S c

over

ed b

y 1-

inch

(or m

ore)

24h

pre

cipi

tatio

n

18 Years of Annual Avg. Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet

18-year mean:1.6%

Example mean: 1.6% coverage 2016

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

18 Years of Summed Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

18 Years of Daily Coverage of 1-inch Isohyet (% of CONUS)

18-year mean:1.6%

18-year 99th percentile: 7.7%

How many of these days per year?

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Days per Year in Top 1% of 1-inch CONUS Coverage (7.7%)

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

Important Caveats on WPC Precip Reanalysis!

● Short time-series analysis (under 20-years)

● Greater coverage does not correlate to more flooding

● Subjective analysis with change in data resolution and obs

● Only one-inch analyzed, what about higher amounts?

● More research needed but much has already been done

www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2016-historic-year-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-us

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Historic Louisiana Flooding, August 2016

The Great Louisiana Flood of August 2016 is the only non-hurricane event to place in the top 5 greatest National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) payouts since 1978. The extreme rainfall during this event was forecast in the first-ever Day 2 High Risk in WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

National Weather Situational Awareness

WPC Mission: Provide precipitation and medium range forecasts to enable national

readiness for hazardous weather events.

Heavy Rainfall

Actionable information that is scientific, probabilistic, & impact-based

Winter Weather

Medium Range

Hazards

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Climate Matters Workshop, April 21, 2017 NASA/Goddard

QUESTION TIME

Thank you!

Greg Carbin @GCarbinChief, Forecast OperationsGregory.Carbin@noaa.gov

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wpc.ncep.noaa.gov