naval oceanography naval oceanography: excellence in (tropical) meteorology rear admiral dave titley...

Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography

Naval Oceanography: Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) MeteorologyExcellence in (Tropical) Meteorology

Rear Admiral Dave Titley

Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Presented to62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Charleston, SC

3 March 2008

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Overview:Overview:Communications and CooperationCommunications and Cooperation

• The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology

– Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters

• We are interdependent with our partners and stakeholders

– Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure

• The Future is bright – and very different from the past

– Forecasters: Moving up the value chain

• How we communicate our information

• Ensembles Risk management

– Battlespace on Demand Decision Superiority

• Naval Oceanography – a great place to work!

We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community

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KNOWLEDGE-CENTRICWARFIGHTING FOCUSED

Anti-Submarine Warfare

Naval Special Warfare

Mine Warfare

ISR

Navigation

Precise Time and Astrometry

Fleet Operations

Maritime Operations

Aviation Operations

FN

MO

C

NA

VO

USNO

Warfighting

Safety

Shaping

Naval Oceanography

• ~$600M operating budget

• 12 ships

•1950 military, 1350 civilians

CU

S

Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography

• Teamwork• Technical Excellence• Clear Communications• Manage Risk• Measure Results• Continuous Improvement

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Naval MeteorologyNaval Meteorology

• Numerical Wx Prediction

• Maritime / Polar

• Aviation

• Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

• Fleet Operations

• Expeditionary

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0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

• Global

• Regional / Relocatable

• Aerosol / Dispersion

• Tropical Cyclone

• Coupled Wave and Ocean

• Ensembles

• Information Assurance

• Tight R&D Ops Connection

Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR

1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

500

mb

Hei

ght

AC

NHEM

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Joint Typhoon Warning CenterJoint Typhoon Warning Center

26 TC’s

6 TC’s

24 TC’s

• 35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years

• 72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007

• Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan

• 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007

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Communication

“Paradox of Accuracy”• Better warnings may not equate to less damageBetter warnings may not equate to less damage

• How to best communicate probabilistic information?How to best communicate probabilistic information?

The Weather Research Challenge• Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge FcstsTrack + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts

The Communications Research Challenge• Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc. Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc.

• TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs.TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs.• Destructive vs.Destructive vs.•Hurricane Winds”Hurricane Winds”

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

-Albert Einstein

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27 22 179 12 240

Officers Chiefs Junior Enlisted Civilians Total

Safety OperationsSafety Operations

Aviation Weather (World Wide)

010002000300040005000

F M A M J

Canned Rte

TAF

DD-175-1'sMonth

0

2000

4000

N D J F M A M J

Maritime Ops (Ships)(WEAX-Messages Sent)

WEAX

Maritime Ops (Ships)(OTSR-Messages Sent)

0100200300400500

N D J F M A M J

OTSR

Smart:• Sensing• Forecasting / Automation• Communications• Partnering

• NWS• USAF• Other Countries

$300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets

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PartnershipsPartnerships

• Navy values the partnerships and interdependence with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone!

– JTWC … A success story for over 50 years

• USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise

– National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program.

• 5 Day TC forecasts

• NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF)

– Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF

– Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble.

• ATCF, Sat Viewer

– International

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The FutureThe Future

• Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9

– Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30 T479L60)

– 4DVAR (NAVDAS – AR)

– Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP)

– WW3 Upgrades

– CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS 22 TFLOPS)

• People

– Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations

– B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors

– In-house forecasting training

• Ensembles & Communication

– Typhoon forecasts

– Experiments

– NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research Office (PRO)

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People + TechnologyPeople + Technology

• Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to:

– Maximize operational impact

– Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce

• Increased model skill – an opportunity to do our job differently

– Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes

– Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid situational awareness

• Training and education of skilled 21st century weather forecasters

– How to best use ensembles

– How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers

• In combat

• In risk-management

• In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)

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SummarySummary

• Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology

• Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders

– Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC)

– Ocean forecasting

– Defining the role of the 21st century forecaster

• Battlespace on Demand

• Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations

• We are hiring!

• There is opportunity everywhere we look – in the tropical field!

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Questions?Questions?