nc climate office & nwsfo-raleigh a national model for local climate service partnership? ryan...

NC Climate Office NC Climate Office & NWSFO-Raleigh& NWSFO-Raleigh

A National Model for Local A National Model for Local Climate Service Partnership?Climate Service Partnership?

Ryan BoylesRyan BoylesAssociate State ClimatologistAssociate State Climatologist

Brandon LocklearBrandon LocklearRAH Climate Focal PointRAH Climate Focal Point

Climate Service Partnership

Extension• Provide the most accurate climate information to the citizens of North Carolina. • Assist North Carolina state agencies in climate-environment interaction issues and

related applications. • Establish, operate, and maintain an extensive meteorological network across North

Carolina and archive and disseminate this data to the public in a timely fashion. • Assist other extension scientists by integrating climate information into

applications such as agricultural and environmental models. • Increase public awareness of variations in North Carolina climate and environment.

Research• Study North Carolina's climate and its interaction with the environment. • Investigate the effects of climatic variations on agriculture, air pollution, and

natural resources and develop forecasts that assist in resource management.

Education• Interact with K-12, community colleges teachers and students, and with other

community organizations on different aspects of NC climate and environment.

Mission of the State Climate Office

Examples of Partnership

• Real-time data exchange, forming the backbone of the NC ECONet Goal 2: Provide reliable, timely, accurate and secure observations…

• Collaboration as core members of NC Drought Monitoring Council Goal 4: Conduct Outreach to regional and local decision makers and users of climate services product • Development of enhanced CPC seasonal outlooks focused on NC Goal 3: Enhance and extend CPC’s product suite to increase the use and effectiveness.• Local training on CPC products and the seasonal outlook process Goal 5: Establish strong partnerships with the climate community to facilitate collaborations in the delivery of regional and local climate services.

WFO RAH has experienced an increasing number of media/customer calls pertaining to or inquiring about climate related issues.

Climate Service Training

IFPS Weather Watch

Climate Service Training

• NWS-Climate Services Division sponsored SCO for 2-weeks at NWS HQ and CPC– CSD Partners Program

• SCO presented 2 workshops to NWS-RAH on concepts learned at NWS-HQ and CPC– Focus on CPC outlook process and products– Climate service interests and capabilities at

State Climate Office

Real-time Data Exchange

• North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (NC ECONet)

• NWS-RAH feeds real-time METAR obs to SCO• SCO feeds hourly obs from its stations to NWS• Combined, these form the backbone of the NC

ECONet

NC SCO

Real-time Data Exchange Metars

SCOHourly

Obs

NWS Raleigh

NC ECONet

NC ECONet

NC ECONet

NC ECONet

NC Drought Monitoring Council

NC Drought Monitoring Council

Durham Little River

High Rock Lake

NC Drought Monitoring Council

• SCO provides context of conditions in terms of climatology

• NWS focuses on recent, near future weather patterns

• SCO and NWS-RAH actively consult each other on longer-term outlooks and possible drought impacts

• NWS and SCO regularly recognized for comprehensive yet simple explanation of weather and climate dynamics

Focused Seasonal Focused Seasonal OutlooksOutlooks

A Joint Project between NWSFO-Raleigh and the NC Climate A Joint Project between NWSFO-Raleigh and the NC Climate OfficeOffice

NWS-SCO Collaboration

Enhancement of Seasonal Outlooks– Focus CPC outlooks for NC and distribute to public

Why enhance CPC outlook?• CPC outlook is:

– National in scope– Difficult to interpret

• What do the numbers really mean?– Improving in accuracy, especially in past few years

• Want to encourage use by local community interests

Seasonal Outlook Enhancement

• Goals– Take CPC Seasonal outlook, “zoom in” on

North Carolina– Provide simple discussion that explains

what factors drive outlook (NAO, ENSO, etc)– Explain likelihood in simple terms– Provide climatology products to give

audience an idea of what is “normal”

• Target audience is wide– Anyone who might find the outlook useful

but is not familiar with CPC products.

Example: 2003 Autumn Climate Outlook

Currently, there are a lack of sufficient atmospheric signals or predictors that allow forecasters to make a skilled long-term temperature forecast. High uncertainty exists among the forecast tools that are used to derive the September-October-November (SON) temperature outlook. Because of this uncertainty, there is an equal chance of below, near, or above normal temperatures.Typically, the SON period or “autumn” is the season of most rapidly changing temperature in North Carolina. The daily downward spiral is greater than the corresponding rise in spring. The drop-off is greatest during October, and continues at a rapid pace in November. The precipitation outlook shows slightly higher confidence and skill, calling for above normal precipitation over the coastal plain of North Carolina, with the piedmont and mountain regions having equal chances of below, near or above normal precipitation. High soil moisture from months of above normal rainfall and a forecast of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season suggests above normal rainfall. While September is the peak month during the hurricane season, autumn is the driest season and November the driest month.

2003 Autumn Climate Outlook

2003 Autumn Climate Outlook

2003 Autumn Climate Outlook

2003 Autumn Climate Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Enhancement

• Available in PDF format for email distribution

• Available on SCO web site:http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/

• Hope to make a regular climate service– Looking for minimal support to have

regular monthly products

Future Partnership Projects

• Data collection for development of an IFPS Smart Tool that produces hourly diurnal temperature/dewpoint curve for “non-standard” advection days (i.e. cold air damming, CAA NW vs. N flow, WAA SW vs. S/SE flow).

• Climatologist/Forecaster Exchange Program• Annual SCO visit/briefing on latest oceanic

an atmospheric conditions.

Summary

• Together, the NWS and SCO have developed a partnership that can serve as a regional model that incorporates ER Climate Service Goals.

• Through meeting these goals and establishing a strong partnership, the NWS and SCO will better serve the climatic needs of our local community.