the effects of climate change s. elwynn taylor agronomist, extension climatologist
DESCRIPTION
The Effects Of Climate Change S. Elwynn Taylor Agronomist, Extension Climatologist Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa [email protected]. How much wetter than usual was June ? In 1988: How many Window Air Units can we sell?. 2014: Are the Hurricanes going to all be in the Pacific Now?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Effects
OfClimate Change
S. Elwynn TaylorAgronomist, Extension ClimatologistIowa State University, Ames, Iowa
• How much wetter than usual was June?
• In 1988: How many Window Air Units can we sell?
2014: Are the Hurricanes going to all be in the Pacific Now?
Simon
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/wobbly-polar-vortex-triggers-extreme-cold-air-outbreak
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/polar-vortex-brings-cold-here-and-there-not-everywhere
The Management Question:
Is this the “NEW Normal”or is this the “Same Old Same Old”
?
Climate,Past & Future
“The climate is changing, climate has always changed & will always change. The question is; ‘how much, how fast, how come?’ ” D. M. Gates ‘66
Will the “New” Dwarf the “Old.”
The Old is still with us.
The “New” is, however, very real: & the “Problem” is US (with apologies to Pogo)
Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?
Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.
b
The VICIOUS CYCLE
Population
Agriculture
Climate
Who will BREAK the CYCLE ?
http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/forests/amazon/amazon-fires-aug08.jpg
On the Same Old - - - -
123.4
2004 - 9
158.8
(+16 to 19 cents)
174 9%
La Nina : Extremes
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf
The NEW Corn belt
• Remember when it was the price of “Crude” that impacted energy cost?
•
Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
f(x) = 6.93204241599198 x − 12627.4395898116
Turkey River at Garber, IA
1
2
34
5
67
8
9
10
19 yr Dry/WetTree rings indicate climate cycles.
wet
dry
Heat & Water Stress
& 90 year cycles
Tree RingsRoanoke, NC cypress tree. Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary College, David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas.
U.S. droughtstarts here.
800 Year Rain (Virginia)
Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?
Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.
b
Secondary CO2 impacts on climate are a major area of research.
It appears that the effect on day-night temperature range may be of high significance
Tillage of the Soilvs
Clearing of the Forest
Can Agriculture change from cause to cure?Can a farm be a “good” as a Prairie?
Reasons Corn Production is Up
1: Growing corn is profitable
2:
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/servlet/GetNewsImage?path=0702BAD4.gif&width=
Profit in AgKnow what is going on
Manage the Risk
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
Season-average Price Cost per Bushel
$ pe
r bu
shel
Corn Price vs Cost
•
High risk Moderate High
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137