dr. elwynn taylor - what the weather holds
TRANSCRIPT
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What the Weather Holds for
2013 and Beyond
(Implications for Corn Yield & Price)
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
•
Likely US yield (4 June 2013) US Corn 147 BPA (9.23 K/ha)
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May starts
with snow
Weather
Extremes
Seldom
Benefit
Crops
101F on 14th
flood on 24th•
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Age of Risk Management
• Some years: Very Good Crop
• Some years: Very Poor Crop
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Drought: Impact & Adaptation
Washington University: a&s magazine Spring 2013
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• Above the US Corn Yield Trend
Six Consecutive Years
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Why is US corn production up?
• Corn has become profitable.
• No other reasons..
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Corn Prices vs. Costs
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
$ p
er
bush
el
Season-average Price Cost per BushelLow yield year Chad E Heart
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Change of Crop Demand
• Food (Human or Livestock)
– Food demand increases with population
– Livestock demand increases with wealth
• Fiber ??
• ENERGY DEMAND (Bio-fuel)
– Increases with wealth
– Increases with population
– Increases with Diminished supply of conventional
fuel
•
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Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)
It took 1/3 of our farm to produce the “fuel” for our
farm equipment. We found it much better to buy
fuel for a tractor, and use the land to produce food.
People are now paying enough for fuel to go back
to growing fuel.
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Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
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Why Bio-Fuel ?
• We Like our Energy
• Our hunger for Energy can
influence the Climate of the Planet
• Bio-Energy approaches renewable
in the short term
• Bio-Energy is a “food-fuel” trade-off
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html
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Midwest Precipitation
Has a multi-cyclic nature
May be a “Climate Change” indicator
in that a general increase is
consistent with increased
Atmospheric & Water Temperature
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•
A year as extreme as 2012 is seldom
followed by a full return to normal.
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There are 2 Kinds of
Drought
• Drought of “Hunger for Food”
• Drought of “Thirst for Water
– Amos 8:11
Sometimes called:
Agricultural and Hydrological drought
Or
Short Term and Long Term drought
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•
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• The winter pattern still resembles La Nina
Dry
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ENSO has a Global Signal
• During years of El Nino
– US Soy & Corn do well
– US & Canada Wheat suffers from Drought
• During years of La Nina
– US Corn at risk
– Canada Wheat usually good
– Canada sometimes floods
Argentina responds to ENSO
much as does US corn & soy
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ENSO History 2010- May 2013
• The La Niña began 22 July 2010
• The La Niña ended 21 March 2012
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Trans-Canada
• 21 June 2010 ET
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Europe now
•
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• 501 year record
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La Niña
Rolling a “7” or a “6” is a
drought. Corn > $4.00/bu
La N i ña
Iowa State University Extension
70% Chance of
Below Trend Yield
147 $5.53
160
144
162
$4.55
155
$4.85
140
$6.45
176
Dec 2013 price by Wisner 5/14/2013
$= 84.3223+ 0.0029xBPAxBPA – 0.9623xBPA
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Tue: Dec corn $5.44 -- expectation 149BPA
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Sea Now, & March 21
March 21
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• Age of El Nino: favorable Midwest Yield
• Age of La Nina: Erratic Yield
• Strongest La Nina events.
•
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stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
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ISMMS001
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Soil Moisture History
• 2012: Oct 1 - Nov 19
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Summary• Hurricane season expected to be active
• Drought likely to persist/expand in West
• Temperature (High &/or Low) significant
• Climate will likely be increasingly erratic (25 year interval)
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Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
Climatologist
END
Twitter.com/elwynntaylor