weather outlook 2015 & beyond elwynn taylor iowa state university
TRANSCRIPT
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Weather Outlook2015 & Beyond
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
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Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 4 Jun 2015
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-15 360'4 -0'4 Dec-15 378'4 -0'4 expect Dec @ $ 385' ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-15 942'4 -1'2 Nov-15 921'0 -1'0 expect Nov @ $ 825'
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• SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño)
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High risk Moderate High
Beyond
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El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).
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StrongLa Niña
ModerateEl Niño
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Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years
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La Niña : Extremes
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El Niño: 70% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yieldsmaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
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(Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010 to 2012
.
El Niño
To
La Niña
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Return to El Niño
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159 $4.85
162.3178
19581
146
170 $3.85 *165 $4.15
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $3.35
US CornWisner
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41 $10.70
4550
5923
40
46 $8.25 *44 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisner
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Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during thenext 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
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stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond
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A Little on the USA:Continental Divide Anomaly
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• Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change
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Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Climatologist
END
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