dr. elwynn taylor - weather outlook 2016 & beyond
TRANSCRIPT
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Weather Outlook2016 & Beyond
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
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Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 8 Jun 2016
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-16 4.30'2 +2'4 Dec-16 4.35'4 +2'2 expect Dec @ $ 2.90 to $3.50 ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-16 11.55'6 +13'6 Nov-16 11.29'2 +12'4 expect Nov @ $
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• SOI 8 Jun 2016 = -6.9 (-8 is full strength El Niño)
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High risk Moderate High
Beyond
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El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).
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StrongLa Niña
ModerateEl Niño
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Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years
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La Niña : Extremes
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El Niño: 70% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yieldsmaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
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(Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010 to 2012 .
El Niño
To
La Niña
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Return to El Niño
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Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during thenext 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
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stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond
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A Little on the USA:Continental Divide Anomaly
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• Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change
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Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Climatologist
END
WWW.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
On Google: Where is elwynn
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Global Warming•
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• http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west-lafayette/united-states/usin0707
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• http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=INCLIMATE&station=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100
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• 1994 Record high Yield 1995 decimated Yield
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mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv
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159 $4.20162.3 178
19581146
170 $3.60 *165½ $3.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”* Central. IA $3.10
US CornWisner
as of 6-12-2015
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41 $9.45
45 50
592340
46 $8.25 *
45 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisneras of 6-12-2015