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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
HOME
⚫ • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed ⚫ • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S
RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• In a recent move, NAFED has suspended the auction of mustard in Rajasthan
till further notice. Recent downward movement in mustard prices may be
one of the reasons for such a move. Nafed may be still holding around 5.89
lakh tonnes of mustard seed from total procured quantity of 8.64lakh tonnes
during the Rabi 2017.
• Mustard arrivals in the domestic mandis also had decreased due to lower
prices. According to the agmark data, all India mustard arrivals in the fourth
week of November 2018 is reported at 16.48 thousand MT which is 21.03 per
cent lower than the third week arrivals of 20.87 thousand MT.
• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 22nd November
all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 52.93 lakh hectares which
is 3.04 per cent higher than 2017-18 acreage of 51.37 lakh hectares. Farmers
has moved to mustard due to higher MSP 4200 per quintal and procurement
activities by the government at the MSP. Moreover, higher prices of mustard
throughout the season have given good returns to the farmers.
• Mustard production target for 2018-19 is 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. According
to the fourth advance estimate of government, India mustard production
estimate for 2017-18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 percent higher
than the 2016-17 production estimate of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.
• According to the trade sources, Mustard oil mills across the country crushed
6.0 lakh tonnes of the oilseed in October, up 33.3% from a year ago. Crushing
is higher in expectation of higher oil meal demand from China. China has
lifted the ban on the imports of mustard meal from India last month which
they had banned in 2012 on quality concerns.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of October 2018 were 25.234
thousand MT (provisional), lower by 77.92 per cent against 89.875 thousand
MT in September 2018. Total exports of rapeseed meal from April 2018 to
October 2018 were 6.80 lakh MT which is 110.52 percent higher than 2017
exports of 3.23 lakh MT in the same time period. Average FoB price of
mustard meal in the month of October is $229 which is slightly higher than
FoB price of August of $226.
• India’s rapeseed oil imports in the month of September 2018 is 11.996
thousand MT which is 51.05 percent lower than the import of August 2018 of
24.509 thousand MT. Total imports of rapeseed oil from November 2017 to
September 2018 were 2.40 lakh MT which is 5.88 per cent lower than 2016-17
imports of 2.55 lakh MT in the same time period. Imports of mustard oil
decreased due to higher import duty and higher crushing in India due to
good demand of oilmeal.
•
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change
Jaipur 4217.5 4250 -0.76
Sriganganagar 4210 4225 -0.36
Bulandshahr 3895 3895 0.00
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
NAFED has suspended the auction of mustard in Rajasthan
Bullish
Lower arrivals of mustard crop in the domestic mandis
Bullish
Higher sowing acreage Bearish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Higher crushing of mustard crop Bearish
Lower imports of mustard oils Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
RM SEED
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• According to the Gujarat agriculture department, Gujarat jeera
sowing acreage as on 19th November 2018 is recorded at 4.42 lakh
hectares in 2018 which is 66.02 per cent lower than last year acreage
of 13.01 lakh hectares in the same time period. Lower acreage is due
to lower rainfall received and lower availability of water.
• According to the trade sources, farmers in Gujarat are keen to sow
jeera crop over other crops due to higher prices. However, lower
availability of water through dams may not let farmers to sow jeera.
• According to the market participants, all India jeera stocks are may be
around 11-12 lakh bags. Farmers and stockiest may hold jeera in
expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days.
• According to the agmark data, all India jeera arrivals in the fourth
week of November 2018 is reported at 3.078 thousand MT which is
41.83 per cent lower than the third week arrivals of 5.292 thousand
MT. Lower arrivals of jeera in the domestic mandis is due to lower
prevailing prices.
• The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected to increase as the
supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are limited and of poor
quality due to crop damage. Although Indian jeera is priced higher in
the global market, it is drawing more buyers because of superior
quality.
• According to the market estimates, India has already exported
around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a
possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this
fiscal year. The highest export volume was recorded at 1.55 lakh
tonnes in 2014.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. According to the 4th advance estimate for Gujarat state,2017-18 production is estimated at 2.88 lakh tonnes, up by 45.5 per cent primarily on higher acreage and favourable climate. However, this year deficient rainfall in jeera producing areas may support the market in the long run.
•
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change
Unjha 19800 19891.7 -0.46
Patan 17830 17805 0.14
Jodhpur 19650 19800 -0.76
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower sowing acreage in Gujarat Bullish
Lower stock with farmers Bullish
Lower arrivals in the mandis Bullish
Higher export demand Bullish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
13,000.00
15,000.00
17,000.00
19,000.00
21,000.00
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha
JEERA
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Castor seed prices showed declining trend as limited buying and selling
activities were noted in most of the spot markets of Gujarat and
Rajasthan. Buyers are now cautious due to sharp fall in and thus
business activity in sluggish.
• Castor seed price so far this calendar year rose by over 28 per cent and
most of the gains were witnessed since October as drought looms over
Castor crop in Gujarat.
• According to traders, Castor seed production next season is expected
to sharply down at around 8-9 lakh tonnes only. They also pegged
present Castor stocks in the country to be around 3-4 lakh tonnes
against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the same period last year.
• Castor seed may trade volatile in the near term, but long-term outlook
is bullish as consumption demand is expected to remain strong ahead
and lower crop unlikely to fulfill it.
• All India Castor seed acreage was in 2018 is 8.59 lakh hectares which is
up by 5.15 per cent from last year area of 8.78 lakh hectares. Lower area
is reported from the states of Telangana and Gujarat while higher
acreage is only reported from Andhra Pradesh.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,
Castor seed production in India is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as
compared to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. The all India Castor seed
production target for 2018-19 was 18.31 lakh tonnes.
• The final Kharif acreage under Castor in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh
hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year. The normal Kharif
Castor acreage in Gujarat is 6.48 lakh hectares.
• Gujarat Agriculture Department in its first advance estimates for 2018-
19 estimated Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh
tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes.
• During April to Sept’18, Vietnam imported 277,406 tonnes of oil meals
(compared to 223,184 tonnes) consisting of 7,160 tonnes of soybean
meal, around 94,559 tonnes of rapeseed meal and 175,687 tonnes of
Rice Bran Extraction. South Korea imported 441,119 tonnes of oil meals
(compared to 427,126 tonnes) consisting 280,292 tonnes of rapeseed
meal, 10,832 tonnes of soybean meal and 149,995 tonnes of Castor
meal. Thailand imported 167,101 tonnes of oil-meals (compared to
76,895 tonnes) consisting 4,747 tonnes of soybean meal, 10,253 tonnes
of De-oiled Rice Bran Extraction, and 152,065 tonnes of rapeseed meal.
France imported 76,704 tonnes of oil-meals consisting 74,499 tonnes
of soybean meal and 2,205 tonnes of Castor meal.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change
Patan 5500 6175 -10.93
Bhabhar 5600 6037 -7.23
Deesa 5640 5625 0.26
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Limited buying and selling activities in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan
Bearish
Castor seed production in India estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as against 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18
Bullish
Castor stocks at around 3-4 lakh tonnes against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the same period last year
Bullish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent at 11.73 lakh tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes in Gujarat
Bullish
Castor acreage in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2800
3240
3680
4120
4560
5000
5440
5880
6320
6760
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Castor - Deesa
CASTOR
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Turmeric prices in most of the spot markets have remained weak due
to limited buying and trading activities. The export demand is also
reported sluggish.
• Traders are now very continuous due to decline in futures market.
Trading activities are also dull as the quality of stocks available for trade
is inferior.
• As per traders, the overall sentiments are weak in the wake of the
Andhra Pradesh government directive to the state-run agencies to
offload Turmeric stocks at current market prices on an immediate basis.
Around 2 lakh bags of Turmeric stocks are still lying with the state-run
agencies. The weakness is likely to continue for a 1 or 2 weeks further.
• According to trade sources, Turmeric crop loss in Maharashtra may be
sever as the state is facing drought like conditions in Key turmeric areas.
Lower rainfall during monsoon was received in Marathwada turmeric
growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded, Basmat which as affect
Turmeric crop.
• As per trade information, currently, all India Turmeric stocks are
reported around 18 – 20 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to last
year 28 – 30 lakh bags, down by around 34 per cent.
• Turmeric exported reported higher at around 12,118 tonnes in
September compared to August 16,216 tonnes.
• Currently Turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were
estimated around 3.00 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to
around 2.00 lakh bags same period last year.
• In Warangal market, new Turmeric arrivals are completed. Currently,
cold storage stocks continue to arrive at the market to the tune of 65 -
80 bags (65 kg each) per day, last week it was 100 – 200 bags.
• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric final sowing reported 18,737 hectares as
compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104
per cent sowing completed from season normal.
• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as
compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.
Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in 2017-
18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes
estimated in 2016-17.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 7151 7195 -0.61
Duggirala 6450 6525 -1.14
Erode 7700 7900 -2.53
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued domestic and export demand in most of the spot markets
Bearish
Traders are now very continuous due to decline in futures market
Bearish
Andhra Pradesh government directive to the state-run agencies to offload Turmeric stocks
Bearish
Lower production expected from Maharashtra due to drought like conditions
Bullish
Higher stocks availability at Nizamabad market compared to last year
Bearish
Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes in 2016-17
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Mar
-15
Jul-1
5
No
v-15
Ap
r-16
Au
g-1
6
De
c-16
May
-17
Se
p-1
7
Feb
-18
Jun
-18
Oct
-18
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
TURMERIC
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Cotton output may dip 2% to 361
lakh bales, says CAB
• Chinese market brightens
prospects for mustard
• Government procures 16.51
million tons of rice so far; to
exceed target • Oilseeds market prices show
little change as MP caps payout
under Bhawantar • Government to procure 44 lakh
tonne of oilseeds and pulses
under the PM- AAASHA scheme
• India's y-o-y HPS groundnut
exports to decline in 2018-19,
says SEA
• Castorseed prices hit sweet spot
on low stock, bleak crop outlook
• Basmati paddy price surges 25%
on expectation of output decline
• Oil meals export decline in
October
To purchase the India Commodity
Year Book 2018, contact us at
research@ncml.com
Official Production Estimates
Fourth advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates: Fourth
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
26-Nov-18 12-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 27-Nov-17
Soybean 3445 3364 3280 2971
RM seed 4217.5 4260.4 4336.1 4182.7
Turmeric 6800 7000 7000 7500
Cotton 12464.9 12921.8 13132.7 10615.9
Jeera 11300 12200 11500 9500
Castor 19800 20471.5 19842 20341.7
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
THE WEEK THAT WAS
*
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
All India Weather status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 15-21 Nov’18
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh (Ut), Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Kerala states
received the large excess rainfall.
• Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry (Ut) and Lakshadweep (Ut) states received the excess
rainfall
• Karnataka and Delhi (Ut) states received the normal rainfall.
• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana states received the large deficit
rainfall.
• Haryana, Andaman & Nicobar (Ut) and Andhra Pradesh states received the deficit rainfall.
• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, Jharkhand, Bihar, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar
& Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut) and Chhattisgarh.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Oct to 26th Nov’18
• In this season Jammu and Kashmir is only the state received the excess rainfall
• Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar (Ut), Tamilnadu, Pondicherry (Ut), Kerala and Lakshadweep
(Ut) states received the normal rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, West Bengal, Chandigarh (Ut), Goa, and Karnataka states
received deficit rainfall.
• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Jharkhand, Bihar,Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi (Ut), Punjab,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar & Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut), Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh,
Adhra Pradesh and Telangana states received the large deficit rainfall
Weather Forecast:
• Minimum temperatures are likely to be slight above normal over parts northwest,adjoining central and west India and some pocket of northeastern states
and south Interior Karnataka till 6th December and below normal over east and adjoining central and peninsular India for the same period.
• Shallow to moderate fog likely at isolated pockets over northeastern states till 6th December and over parts of northern plains between 26th November to
6th December 2018.
• The weekly cumulative rainfall is likely to be above normal over extreme south Peninsular India between 23rd to 29th and below normal between 30th Nov
to 6th Dec. over extreme south peninsular India & along east coast. The above normal precipitation likely over Jammu & Kashmir between 23rd to 29th
November. Rest of the country very likely to be experience nearnormal rainfall activity till 6 December 2018
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91
important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of
161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir
capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
As on 22nd November 2018 live storage available in these reservoirs is
103.236 BCM and average of last 10 years live storage was 105.855 BCM.
Thus, the live storage available in 91 major reservoirs as on 22nd November
2018 is 99% of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and
96% of storage of average of last 10 years.
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Impact of weather on major crops
Crop All India
Acreage
Current crop condition
Wheat 111.96*
Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab,
Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand
and Rajasthan. Rainfall pattern in first half of Nov is beneficial for
sowing in Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Sowing is
ongoing in all state. Overall condition as well as germination stage is
normal.
Rapeseed
&Mustard 52.93
Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,
Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. Crop sowing is in completion stage
and is currently in vegetative stage. Incidence of disease and insect
has not been observed in field till date. Further, moisture in the soil is
decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Overall crop condition is normal.
Chickpea 62.65*
Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,
Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram
sowing speed is affected by initial deficient moisture in Nov. Major
part of crop sowing in northern and central region will be done by the
end of November but will get delayed in southern region. Incidence
of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Overall
crop condition is normal.
Lentil 10.24*
Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
(Buldelkhand region). Crop sowing is in process currently. Incidence
of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. As
moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously, sowing of gram may
get switch to lentil as lentil crop require less water as compare to
gram. Further deficiency in rainfall might impact crop health. Overall
crop condition is normal.
*in progress,
Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date 26 November 2018
Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
yyy
link
NCoMM QUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
1. India Wheat sowing in 2018-19 is expected to be_____than last year.
Higher
2. In which commodity there is no import restriction?
Guar
China
3. Which country is largest producer of paddy?
Name NCML Department
1 Srinivasu S S&P
2 Neha Sharma HR& Admin
LUCKY WINNER!
Neha Sharma
HR&Admin
CONGRATULATIONS!
0
Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com
Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from
errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based
on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which
this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017
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