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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

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Cotton • Soybean • RM Seed • Jeera • Chilli • Castor Seed • Turmeric

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further brought down India’s

2017-18 cotton production estimate to 362 lakh bales from 367 lakh bales

forecasted few weeks ago. Estimates are lowered due to the crop

damage by pink boll worm attack and water scarcity in some states. Last

year’s production was 345 lakh bales.

Industry veterans at the 9th Asian Textiles Conference, organised by the

Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, estimated India’s 2017-18 cotton

output to remain flat at around 345 lakh bales from 2016-17, despite a

significant increase in sowing during the kharif season, due to extensive

pink bollworm attack in major growing states of Maharashtra, Telangana,

Andhra & Karnataka.

The Maharashtra government has estimated at least a 17% decline in the

state's output, due to the pink bollworm impact.

India's cotton exports have been gathering pace after global prices

jumped to four-year highs, with traders signing contracts in the last three

weeks to ship over 10 lakh bales. Bangladesh, Vietnam & Pakistan are

aggressively buying from India due to lower prices.

Indian merchants have contracted to export 47 lakh bales so far this

marketing year, of which nearly 35 lakh have already been shipped

The CAI has now revised up India's cotton exports to 60 lakh bales in 2017-

18 against 63 lakh bales a year ago. However it seems that exports may

touch 65 lakh tonnes.

The nation's cotton stocks could fall to their lowest in 14 years to 22 lakh

bales from the earlier estimated 42 lakh bales at the end of the 2017/18

season, sapped by higher exports & higher domestic consumption.

The Indian government has reduced the maximum sale price of transgenic

Bt cotton seeds from Rs 800 per packet earlier to Rs 740 to help cotton

growers hit by pest attacks. The royalty fee payable by seed firms to

technology developer Monsanto Mahyco Biotech (India) Ltd (MMBL) has

also been slashed to Rs 39 per packet from Rs 49.

Indian cotton is poised to see more uptick in the coming days and overall

price trendis likely to remain firm on high demand from local ginners and

exporters alike.

Increased supply from India could drag on the rally in international prices.

USDA in its latest report pegs 2017-18 world cotton production at 121.37

mn bales (of 480-lb) against 106.57 mn bales produced in 2016-17. The

consumption is pegged at 120.50 mn bales against 114.75 mn bales in 2016-

17 and the ending stocks are estimated higher at 88.55 mn bales against

87.66 mn bales last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Kadi 29 mm 11507 11389 1.04

Rajkot (29 mm) 19713.7 20048.3 -1.67

Abohar (Med Staple) 10488.8 10493.8 -0.05

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

No

v-17

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Further cut down in India’s cotton production estimate by CAI due to pink bollworm infestation in Maharashtra & Telangana

Bullish

Adequate supplies in market Bearish

Higher overall production over last year and higher closing stock expected from last year

Bearish

Higher domestic demand by ginners Bullish

Higher exports due to higher global prices

Bullish

Higher global production Bearish

Based on primary and secondary factors

Fundamental Report COTTON

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

India’s soybean imports have hit a record high this year and more buying

is expected as domestic supplies tighten in the domestic market due to

lower production.

Traders have signed deals to sell up to 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to

India since December, shipping mainly from the African countries of

Ethiopia and Benin with which the South Asian nation has concessional

import duty agreements. India’s soybean imports have never previously

approached 100,000 tonnes.

The Soybeans Processors’ Association of India (SOPA) has estimated

India's soybean output at 8.35 mn tonnes for the 2017-18 season, 24%

lower than 10.9 mn tonnes produced in the previous year.

India’s soybean output is lower this season due to 5% lower acreage over

last year, flood-induced crop damage in major growing states, followed

by blight disease in the plants.

The arrival of soybean is declining in the mandis. Positive trend overseas

and restricted supplies in the domestic spot market are fuelling Soybean

prices in India while Profit–booking at higher levels is limiting the upside

to an extent.

Soymeal exports are likely to be lower this season following higher

prices in the market. SOPA has estimated India's soybean meal exports

at 1.25 million tonnes for FY 2017-18 compared to 2 mn tonnes reported

for the previous year.

The government has recently increased import duty on crude palm oil to

44% from 30%, while custom duties on refined palmolein and refined

palm oil has been raised to 54% from 40%. However SEA is seeking hike in

import duties of soya oil too in same proportion as palm oils for farmers.

Import duty on crude soy oil was hiked from 17.5 percent to 30 percent

while refined soy oil import duty is hiked from 20% to 35%.

Soybean at CBOT continued the positive tone. Argentina’s output

estimate has been further has been to 40 MMT compared to previous

estimates of 46.5 mn MT due to drought in the country.

Soybean harvest in Brazil has reached 58% till date compared to 62%

during the same time previous year. Brazil is expected to export a record

70 MMT of soybean in 2018-19 which is 12% higher than previous year.

Brazil’s crop is anticipated to be bigger than last year’s record 114 mn

tonnes & global supply estimate is higher amid record crop in U.S.

2700

2980

3260

3540

3820

4100

4380

No

v-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Soybean Indore

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Soybean output estimated 24% lower than last year

Bullish

Record high soybean imports in India touching 100,000 tonnes

Bearish

Declining arrivals Bullish

Profit–booking at higher levels Bearish

Lower soymeal export Bearish

Dry weather in Argentina and lagged Brazilian harvest leading to positive tone at CBOT

Bullish

Higher global output on back of high Brazil and US harvest

Bearish

Based on primary and secondary factors

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Indore 3776 3777 -0.03

Kota 3700 3700 0.00

Nagpur 3863.25 3817.8 1.19

Fundamental Report SOYBEAN

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

According to estimates given by AP agriculture dept as on 14th February,

Chilli area declined by 35% to 0.25 lakh Ha from 0.39 Lakh Ha in 2017,

while in Telangana decline is to the tune of 55% to 0.11 lakh Ha from 0.24

lakh Ha in 2017.

As on 28th February cold storage stock in Guntur area is reported to be

higher at around 89000-98000 MT this year as compared to 38000-

45000 last year on the back of higher production last year.

According to Agmarknet chilli arrivals have been around 6800 MT from

1-15 March as compared to 13300MT last year a decrease of about 50%

due to lower production this year.

Lower chilli arrivals in the market compared to the previous year

indicates that stockists are still holding back their stocks in expectation

of higher prices during coming months as we move into lean arrival

season.

Transactions in Asia’s largest chilly market were seen effected during

first week of March 2018 due to concerns over implementation of

Electronic National Agricultural marketing (eNAM) in Guntur market.

Chilli exports were picked up last year to about 2.35 lakh tonnes, which

is almost 42% increase from 1.65 lakh tonnes during 2016-17 on the back

of higher production and lower prices during 2017.

The Spot market in Guntur Warangal and Khammam are witnessing an

increased demand for Teja variety backed by increased export

requirements from china as it procures 40-50% of the production. Teja is

preferred for its pungency or heat value in China.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Guntur Teja 10000 9500 5.26

Warangal Teja 10400 9200 13.04

Khammam Teja 10200 9650 5.70

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Chilli Guntur

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower acreage this year Bullish

Higher Export Demand

Bullish

Ongoing arrivals Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Fundamental Report CHILLI

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Rajasthan State Cooperative Marketing Federation Ltd (RAJFED) and

HAFED will procure mustard seed at MSP i.e. Rs. 4000 in Rajasthan and

Haryana respectively. RAJFED will procure 6 lakh tonnes whereas HAFED

will procure 2.5 lakh tonnes of mustard seed.

As per market sources, millers are anticipating that most of the farmers

will liquidate the stock of mustard seed to RAJFED & HAFED and they

might not get required quantity at lower price level.

Harvesting activities of mustard crop is going on all major producing

states. According the agmark, all India mustard arrivals in the 3rd week of

March is 1.62 MT which is 6.57 percent higher than 2nd week arrival of 1.52

lakh MT.

According to the trade sources, quality of the new crop is good. Moisture

level is slightly higher than normal.

Demand of mustard is higher than normal as stockiest are active in the

market. They are stocking in expectation of getting higher prices in the

futures as production estimate is lower this year.

India’s mustard meal exports in the month of February 2018 were 42.231

(provisional) thousand MT, higher by 69.05 per cent against 24.98

thousand MT in January 2018. Average FoB price of meal in February is

recorded at $235 per tonne which is slightly higher than average price of

$226 per tonne in the month of January. Total mustard oil meal exports

from April ‘17 to February ‘18 are 5.29 Lakh MT as against 2.07 lakh MT in

the same time period last year.

As per second advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s mustard

production is estimated at 7.54 million metric tonne which is 6.91 per cent

lower than first advance production estimate of 8.10 million metric tonne.

In 2016-17, government production estimate was 7.917 million metric

tonnes.

According to latest update from SEA of India, the total production of

mustard seed in the current year is estimated at 6.33 million metric tonnes

which is 3.72 per cent lower than the last year production estimate of

6.575 million MT.

Lower production estimate is due to lower sowing acreage in major

producing states. Farmers have reduced the area due to higher

temperature and lack of rainfall at the time of sowing.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Jaipur 4009.35 4100 -2.21

Alwar 3870.5 3973.5 -2.59

Sriganga Nagar 3701 3688 0.35

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-15

Feb

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-17

Mar

-18

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Procurement activities by state government

Consolidation

Higher crop arrivals in the market Bearish

Higher demand by stockiest Bullish

Higher meal demand Bullish

Lower production estimate Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Fundamental Report RM SEED

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

According to the agmark, all India jeera arrivals in the third week of

March is 13.15 thousand MT which is 23.26 per cent higher than last

year arrivals of 10.09 thousand MT in the same time period. Good

amount of the new crop from Gujarat is reported whereas newly

harvested crop from Rajasthan is also coming in the market. Higher

arrivals in the market may not let prices to take sharp northward

movement.

According to the local trader of Unjha market, quality of new crop

arriving in the market is good. Moisture content is around 8-10 per

cent.

Production of Jeera is estimated to be higher than last year with

both Gujarat and Rajasthan reporting increase in acreage. The

climate was also conducive and the output is likely to be high. As

per Unjha based traders, Jeera output is estimated at around 65-70

lakh bags (55 kg each) in 2018.

Demand of jeera is higher than normal due to present lower levels

at the spot market. Stockiest are active in the market as they are

not expecting much downward movement in the coming days.

According to the DGCIS, India exports of jeera in the time period of

April to November 2017 is reported at 98.681 thousand MT which is

15 per cent higher than the last year exports for the same time

period. Jeera exports are set to rise in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) due to the

ongoing political unrest in Syria and decline in stocks in Turkey.

Until the new crop arrives in Syria in June, India will be the sole

supplier of the spice in the global market.

According to market sources, Syrian Cumin seed crop is likely to be

around 30,000 to 40,000 metric tonnes this year, while Turkey is

likely to harvest between 12,000 to 15,000 metric tonnes.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Unjha 15811.1 16405.55 -3.62

Junagadh 13480 14012 -3.80

Dhanera 13750 14250 -3.51

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000

Feb

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-17

Mar

-18

Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - Unjha

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher crop arrivals in the market Bearish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Higher demand at lower levels Bullish

Higher export demand Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Fundamental Report JEERA

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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Castor seed spot and futures market have remained range bound with

slight positive tone. Limited demand is observed in spot markets.

Traders reported that demand of castor seed from millers is limited due

to steady sales of castor oil. The new crop supply of castor seed is

gradually increasing which may result in further weakness in castor seed

price in coming days.

However, according to market sources, Millers are expecting good

export orders from overseas market as cost of castor oil has reduced

due to depreciation of rupee.

According to the second advance estimates for 2017-18 crops released

by Ministry of Agriculture, Castor seed production estimated at 14.97

lakh tonnes as against 13.76 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

According to Government data the total area under castor in Rajasthan

for the year 2017-18 was 1.31 lakh hectares as against 1.42 lakh hectares

last year. The castor seed production as per 2nd advance estimates was

2.65 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.90 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2017-18 was 5.95 lakh

hectares as against 5.65 lakh hectares compared to previous year. Total

castor seed production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.11 lakh tonnes as

against 12.55 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

SEA conducted Castor crop survey for crop estimation in major growing

states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It has

estimated domestic crop at 14.30 lakh tonnes for 2017-18 as compared to

10.60 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

As per the Solvent Extractor Association of India Castor oil exports

during the financial year 2017-18 till December stood at 4.11 lakh tonnes

as against 4.15 lakh tonnes in corresponding period last year. In 2016-17

total castor oil exports reported were 5.37 lakh tonnes.

Stock position of Castor seed New at NCDEX warehouses as on 18th

March declined to 14,903 metric tonnes as compared to 74,312 metric

tonnes same period last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Mehsana 4015 3995 0.50

Dhanera 4012 3970 1.06

Deesa 4167.3 4157.6 0.23

2800

3160

3520

3880

4240

4600

4960

Feb

-15

May

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

De

c-17

Mar

-18

Castor - Deesa

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Millers expecting good export demand

Bullish

Increased supplies of new crop in spot markets

Bearish

Significantly higher production estimates compared to last year

Bearish

Weak demand for Castor oil Bearish

Lower castor oil exports Bearish

Improved demand at lower levels

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Fundamental Report CASTOR SEED

0

Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report TURMERIC

Turmeric futures continue to trade weak as higher arrivals of new

crop in various spot markets across the country continue to keep

the market sentiments low.

According to local trader, arrivals of new Turmeric has just begun in

Nizamabad and Erode market leading to some recovery in prices,

but prices may feel some pressure when new arrival increases in

other centres.

As per market sources from Erode, traders are showing interest in

buying the new turmeric crop. Lower supply is reported from last

year as farmers and stockists were holding back their stocks on

expectation of higher prices in coming days as current year

production is likely to decline by 40-45 per cent in Tamil Nadu (Key

producing state) due to lower acreage.

Nizamabad market has received six lakh bags of new crop from this

year’s crop and the new crop supply is expected to gain

momentum in coming days.

According to traders, new turmeric supply is expected to start in

Warangal and Ksamudram from the coming weeks, which may

weigh on prices, however demand from herbal product

manufacturers may emerge sooner or later due to increasing trend

in herbal products.

As per the Ministry of Commerce data Turmeric exports during

April - December 2017 recorded a decline of 14 per cent lower at

81,756 metric tonnes as against 94,455 metric tonnes during same

period in 2016. India imported 11056.33 metric tonnes of Turmeric

during April- October 2017-18 as against 9537.83 metric tonnes

imported same period last year.

As per trade sources, production of Turmeric is estimated around

55-60 lakh bags versus 65 lakh bags (70kg each) in last year.

As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in 2016-17

estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-16.

Turmeric stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 18th March

2018 reported at 607 tonnes as against to 1676 tonnes same period

last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change

Nizamabad 6930 6776.9 2.26

Sangli 6850 6800 0.74

Warangal 6039 5805 4.03

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

Jun

-14

No

v-14

Ap

r-15

Se

p-1

5

Feb

-16

Jul-1

6

De

c-16

May

-17

Oct

-17

Mar

-18

Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Traders showing interest in new Turmeric

Bullish

Expectation of higher supplies in spot markets

Bearish

Subdued demand from domestic and overseas buyers

Bearish

Decline in productions estimates in tamil nadu resulting in overall production decline

Bullish

Lower exports compared to last year Bearish

Improved demand at lower levels Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

0

Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sugar mills urge govt to re-

introduce minimum indicative

export quotas

Cane arrears rise to Rs 14,000 crore

till January, may touch record by

month-end: ISMAs

Procurement of wheat may cross 32

MT

India's April-January non-basmati

rice exports jump 34 per cent year

on year: Govt body

India has 30-35 MT storage space &

12,700 reefer vehicles, says Kohli

Mustard purchase at MSP of Rs

4,000 per quintal by HAFED

Loan waivers bring temporary

relief to farmers, but challenges

run much deeper- SANJAY KAUL

To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at

Research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates: First

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

KHARIF

Paddy Common 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725

Bajra 1330 1425

Ragi 1725 1900

Maize 1365 1425

Tur 5050 5450*

Moong 5225 5575*

Urad 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black 2775 3050

Sesamum 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320

RABI

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

Wheat 1625 1735

Barley 1325 1410

Gram 4000* 4400

Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250

Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000

Safflower 3700* 4100

Wheat 1625 1735

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago

Month ago Year ago

19-Mar-18 05-Mar-18 19-Feb-18 20-Mar-17

Soyabean 3776 3931 3838 3034

RM seed 4009.35 4150 4112.5 4000

Turmeric 6930 6650 7129.15 6254.15

Cotton 19713.7 19919.4 19366.45 21084.5

Chilli teja 10000 9200 9800 7950

Jeera 15811.1 16812.5 18863.35 17514.4

Castor 4167.3 4112.3 4250 4529.05

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and market-

wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

0

Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

RABI SOWING - Link

0

Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Answers for 27 Feb 2018 Quiz:

Ans 1: Madhya Pradesh Ans 2: FALSE

People who gave correct answer:

Dr.Ravi Pratap Singh Sangwan

Sanjay Singh

Anant Nimbalkar

Vineet Poonia

Ranjit Singh

ASHWANI KUMAR

navdeep kaur

Sandipkumar Nayak

ANJALI

Ravi tanwar

s.narendra

Sudhakar Reddy

kapil singh bhakuni

Akansha Kumari

Mital Anadkat

Devaraj L

Mayank Mishra

Neetu Gautam

Nikhil Kumar

Brijesh Tripathi

Kumood Sharma

Dr. Raina Jain

Praveen Kumar Mundra

Maheshkumar Ramaswamy

MANOJ KUMAR PANDEY

Arun kumar

Babloo Kumar

Mital Anadkat

Devaraj L

Lucky Winner:

Raina Jain

0

Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG basant.v@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG kamna.m@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

For any research queries, contact us at research@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any

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No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting

from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are

based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on

which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

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